C-19 Chat Post – 3-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

The last 5 days of March will contain a variety of weather. Let’s sort it out. Upper level low pressure spins over the region while drifting eastward during the next few days. Today, other than some patchy cloudiness near the MA South Coast and back over the hills of north central MA to southwestern NH, the balance of the region has dawned with a clear sky, but this won’t last, as cold air aloft will help trigger diurnal cloud development and those clouds will become dominant by midday onward. Today’s atmosphere is not quite as unstable as yesterday’s, so the chance of convective shower development is lower, but some of them that do form while being mainly rain showers may also contain wet snow and even graupel (rimed snowflakes). We’ll be cooler than yesterday as well, but the real cold air arrives tonight, with a cold front, which may bring a few snow showers, then a blast of blustery weather through Monday, a day that will feature a lot of clouds and maybe a few snow flurries, and also have a wind chill as high temps in the 30s often feel like 20s or even upper 10s at times. Tuesday, we ease the wind and lose a lot of the clouds but keep a chill as a northwesterly air flow continues between high pressure to our west and low pressure over eastern Canada. The high center will finally nudge eastward enough to allow the wind to diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday, but a warm front will be approaching on Wednesday and we’ll see the cloud cover increase from that. With enough lingering cold around, this front may generate frozen precipitation for parts of the region Wednesday night. I’m cautiously optimistic that the front will push through for a milder day Thursday, but this will come with a price which will be rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west – an unsettled end to the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably to mostly cloudy midday on. Isolated showers of rain and possible graupel and/or wet snow afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of passing snow flurries. Highs 34-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

Upper level low pressure is expected to cross the region from west to east over the first few days of April with a transition from mild to cooler, but the greatest chance of any rainfall on April 1 followed by a drier April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 but confidence on that part of the forecast is much lower.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Forecast confidence remains low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring April 6-8.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)

An upper level low pressure system will be the primary driver of our weather over the next few days. This means that our weekend, while unsettled, won’t be anything near a wash-out (or snow-out), but we can and likely will see the development of showers and even some thunderstorms (with possible hail) later today, and the redevelopment of some rain and possible graupel showers and eventually snow showers later Sunday as a trend to colder weather progresses. That cold will arrive in force Sunday night into early next week. Monday will still feature some instability so that we can see a few snow flurries in the region from passing clouds despite plenty of bright sun, and a wind that will make it feel more like January at times despite March’s high sun angle. The coldest temperatures of this stretch likely occur with Tuesday morning’s lows, with a modest recovery to several degrees over Monday’s highs that day, but with lots of sun and a little less wind helping to make the recovery seem a little greater. By Wednesday, while still in the chilly air, we’ll have lighter wind as the low pressure that had been impacting us forever finally lifts away, but just in time for a warm front to approach with increasing clouds and an evening precipitation threat which may include some of the frozen variety…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mid to late afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, with the potential for brief downpours and even some small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a lingering rain shower possible early, then partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers midday and afternoon, with late-day showers potentially containing graupel. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/sleet/rain at night. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

There is a lot of uncertainty in this period and obviously impossible for details this far out, but right now the scenario I see as most likely is low pressure passing northwest of our region March 31 with a warm front struggling to move through, and unsettled weather for the final day of the month, and then starting out unsettled and cool with upper level low pressure in the region April 1-2 (much like our current pattern), with hope for a brief warm-up and fair weather to finish the first weekend of April before we eye more unsettled weather by the end of the period. A lot of fine-tuning will be needed for this forecast in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)

Forecast confidence remains rather low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring the middle of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

Surface low pressure moves away today, but upper level low pressure is going to take its time crossing the Northeast from west to east during the next 5 days, during which time you’ll see a transition from mild to cold, with a few episodes of unsettled weather, and finally some dry weather. Today, as the storm of yesterday departs, the air mass is fairly mild, so a drying westerly wind will make for a nice day as we break the clouds for more sun, but never totally lose the clouds as the air above turns colder. This may help pop a few rain showers later today to early this evening. Saturday, it will be slightly cooler but still relatively mild at the surface, but colder still above us, making the atmosphere a little more unstable, so by later in the day a few more showers and even a thunderstorms may pop up, with the possibility of brief downpours and even small hail in some of them. Sunday, we continue the downward trend in temperatures both surface and aloft, and that atmosphere will still be unstable enough to potentially produce a few diurnal showers of rain, and by late-day and evening graupel and snow showers may occur as it is finally cold enough. When the coldest air arrives early next week, we’ll have a gusty wind and the chance of a few snow showers Monday as it is still somewhat unstable, then finally dry weather with plenty of sunshine by Tuesday.

TODAY: Clouds, patchy fog, and a potential sprinkle or some drizzle early, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a rain shower by late afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A mid to late afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, with the potential for brief downpours and even some small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers midday and afternoon, with late-day showers potentially containing graupel. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Warm front approaches March 30 with clouds moving in, and a chance of rain at night that may start as snow and/or sleet for some locations. May get a quick warm-up March 31 before cold front comes by and returns colder air for the first couple days of April with some unsettled weather as well, and then lower confidence of dry weather and maybe a brief warm up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

Continued low confidence forecast. Up and down temperatures, leaning toward cooler than normal, with episodes of unsettled weather between Canadian cold and southeastern US warmth.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)

Low pressure out in the Great Lakes has occluded and its frontal system swings out and around to the Northeast, with us on the cool side of a frontal boundary, which is where we will stay as the low redevelops at its frontal triple-point and that low travels northeastward just east of Cape Cod tonight and early Friday. Most of the sleet and any pockets of freezing rain are pretty much done with over interior locations and from here its just rain, in two main surges, one this morning and another one this evening and tonight to early Friday morning. Some thunderstorms may even take place from very late this afternoon into tonight over RI and eastern MA as the atmosphere will be rather unstable. Once the newly developed low moves beyond our latitude Friday morning our wind will switch to westerly and we’ll dry out, and also warm up as the air mass behind this system is not cold at all initially. It will not be until we have upper level low pressure cross the Northeast over the weekend and a trough and a front go by, with some unsettled weather, that we will see colder air finally work in, and once it does, you’ll feel it. Monday will remind you of winter with its gusty breeze and below normal temperatures, creating wind chills in the vicinity of freezing despite bright late March sunshine.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain, steadiest this morning, returning to RI and eastern MA late-day including the chance of thunder. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Rain likely with a chance of thunder, especially RI and eastern MA. Lows 38-45. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain and patchy fog, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers evening. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Dry with below normal temperatures March 29. Back into a batttle zone between cold to the north and warmth to the south with unsettled weather in the March 30 to April 1 time frame. Fair weather may return late period, but low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)

A very low confidence forecast here. Likely some up and down in the temperature, but leaning toward cooler overall with additional unsettled weather. Medium range guidance is conflicted and we know it will still be cold in Canada and warm in the southeastern US, so likely some sort of battle goes on.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

High pressure tries to hang on today and does so enough to start us out with sunshine and lighter wind, but the sun will lose the battle eventually to advancing clouds as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will redevelop to its southeast and move up over New England on Thursday, bringing us a rainy day, but this rain will start in the pre-dawn hours as sleet for some areas north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations from Worcester County to southwestern NH where a coating of sleet can occur before the rain takes over. The system will begin to pull away Friday, and the wind, which will be off the ocean during the storm’s passage, will shift back to regional land breeze, meaning we will start to dry out and be milder Friday, but we won’t see complete clearing as upper level low pressure will be overhead. We’re going to be dealing with something similar as upper level low pressure takes all weekend to move through our region, along with a cooling trend, so it won’t be a stellar weekend – no washout, but slightly unsettled with a few rain and even snow showers (later in the weekend) as we see that downward trend in temperature…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight but may begin as a period of sleet north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A touch of rain and/or drizzle with areas of fog possible early, then a chance of a passing rain shower later. Highs 52-59. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers, even mix/snow showers possible mainly interior higher elevations. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Dry with below normal temperatures March 28-29 as the cold air from Canada wins the battle. We get back into the battle zone between that cold and warmer air to the south in the March 30 to April 1 time frame with additional unsettled weather likely being the result.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up on the first weekend of April with warmer air winning the next battle (low confidence forecast though) before we’re back in the unsettled battle zone yet again.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)

A dry, windy, and cool day is ours for today as a ridge of high pressure sits to the west and a deepening low spins across the Canadian Maritimes. These conditions also increase the risk of the rapid spread of brush fires as we have rather dry ground and are in the pre leaf-out stage of early spring – basically our fire season here in New England. The wind will relax tonight as the high pressure area moves closer and then over the region. Wednesday will be dry during the daytime but we’ll see clouds moving in ahead of an approaching low pressure system which is set to bring us unsettled weather starting Wednesday night and lasting into early Friday. This system will arrive with just enough cold air in place that we may see some snow and/or sleet over interior higher elevations before rain takes over for the remainder of the system’s duration, which will be until sometime early on Friday before its redeveloped low center moves out of the region. However, upper level low pressure over the region will limit any clearing and keep us rather unsettled into the start of the weekend as well.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight but may begin as a period of sleet and/or snow interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog early, then breaking clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)

Upper level low pressure will still be over the region along with colder air with a chance of rain and snow showers March 27. Another disturbance brings the chance of some precipitation before the end of March. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up in the first few days of April as the pattern may re-adjust briefly, but this remains a low confidence outlook as some of our medium range guidance continues to show cooler and somewhat unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-22-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)

An area of high pressure elongated from east central Canada to the US Mid Atlantic will feed us dry and cool air for the next few days. It will be breezy as well between that ridge and low pressure over eastern Canada. By Wednesday, the northern high center will be closest to us and we’ll see clouds moving in ahead of an advancing area of low pressure from the west. This low will bring us unsettled weather from Wednesday night through Friday as it moves into the Northeast and also redevelops. The system will be mainly a rain producer, though enough cold air around at the start of the precipitation Wednesday night may mean that some areas, especially interior higher elevations, can see snow at the beginning. Somewhat drier air will try to work in during Friday but it may be a slow process with the redeveloped system being slow to move away and upper level low pressure still over the Northeast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog early, then breaking clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)

Upper level low pressure is expected to move across the region over the March 26-27 weekend with unsettled weather and below normal temperatures meaning there can be rain and snow showers both days. Drier between this and another potential disturbance by the end of the period as temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up in the first few days of April as the pattern may re-adjust for a while, as this has shown up on several pieces of guidance more than once. However, not close to confident this will happen yet as other medium range guidance has completely different ideas. Knowing we’ll have cold in Canada and a warm US Southeast, it can go either way, or we can be stuck between the two in the battle zone still.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-21-2022