C-19 Chat Post – February 6 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A taste of the tundra this weekend as the region is coated in a variety of ice and will be cold and dry. The exception to the “dry” will be the light snow that lingers across Cape Cod this morning, and a few more snow showers may catch the outer Cape a bit later due to a cold northwest wind blowing over relatively warmer water. The gusty weather of today will settle for a more tranquil Sunday, but outside of treated surfaces and locations that get a lot of direct sun, the ice isn’t going anywhere for the next couple of days as we stay well below freezing most of the time. High pressure slips offshore and we turn milder to start the week. Low pressure will then follow this, passing southeast of New England late Monday through Tuesday, but close enough to bring some light rain and snow to the region. High pressure returns with fair weather by Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with light snow Cape Cod morning then variably cloudy there with a few snow showers outer Cape Cod this afternoon. Elsewhere, cloud/sun mix. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +2 rural and suburban areas, 3-10 Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Chance of light mix/rain favoring southern areas later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix. Temperature steady 33-40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow, favoring southeastern areas in the morning. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Seasonable to mild and dry early period, briefly unsettled mid period, shot of colder air later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

C-19 Chat Post – February 5 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

It’s Flash-Freeze-Friday February Fourth! A whole lot of F’s there, and a few other words that start with that letter may come from people’s mouths before today is over, regarding the weather. The anticipated temperature drop is ongoing now from north to south and will continue during the day, with the sharpest drop coming with the passage of a cold front and then a more gradual drop to follow. This is causing rain to turn to freezing rain and sleet from north to south, a process that will continue during the morning and midday hours, resulting in slippery travel conditions developing (also watch for some road flooding from some heavier rainfall that has been occurring for the last few hours leading up to dawn). As precipitation comes to an end later this afternoon and this evening, some areas may get a small accumulation of snow atop the ice, especially north and west of Boston, but snow won’t be a big deal. We stay cold with icy ground through the coming weekend with dry weather continuing and a bit of a temperature moderation by Monday. Watching low pressure to pass south of the region Monday night into Tuesday, probably far enough to have little or no impact on the region.

TODAY: Overcast with rain transitioning to freezing rain & sleet north to south morning, continuing afternoon, tapering off later in the day. Glazing of ice on some surfaces due to flash freeze and some freezing rain, and accumulation of sleet a coating to as much as 1 inch. Temperatures starting out ranging from the lower to middle 30s southern NH and northern MA to near 50 South Coast, falling to the 20s except lower 30s South Coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early. Icy ground. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Icy ground. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Icy ground. Lows -3 to +2 rural and suburban areas, 3-10 Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Icy ground but slight improvement. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of icy ground. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Areas of icy ground. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/snow possible South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Overall quiet pattern with more seasonable temperatures. Best chance of unsettled weather comes later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

C-19 Chat Post – February 4 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

By the end of today, the vast majority of the snow that fell in the recent blizzard will be gone, having been eaten away by mild air, and eventually some rainfall. It’s not going to be the type of rainfall that causes a lot of flooding as it was a generally low water content snow, so other than in some poor drainage areas, we’re going to avoid an issue with the start of our next unsettled weather event. What we are not going to avoid is a quick temperature drop early Friday and a messy, slippery result. After around an inch or so of rainfall from later today through tonight into the early hours of Friday, a sharp cold front will pass through from northwest to southeast, and the temperature will drop very quickly as the boundary passes, creating a flash freeze. This will be a situation you cannot really pre-treat for, because the rain would wash that away. So crews will have to act quickly when the temperature goes down. As for precipitation, we’ll see a transition from rain to freezing rain and/or sleet as the boundary goes by each area, the precipitation type to be determined by the thickness of the low level cold air. I think that it goes quickly to sleet the further north you are, with a longer period of freezing rain to the south before transition to sleet. The freezing rain areas will see additional ice accretion on surfaces, whereas areas that are sleeting will see an accumulation of ice pellets of a coating to about 1 inch maximum. A transition to snow will occur in southern NH and north central MA with up to an inch or so of snow atop everything else and a transition to snow will take place further south at least into areas mostly north of I-90 late in the precipitation with a coating of snow possible atop everything else. The end of the precipitation should beat the conditions that would cause snow to occur further to the south. After we dry out later Friday and Friday night through Saturday as the front moves away and high pressure moves into the Great Lakes, it will be quite cold, so icy surfaces that are not treated will remain so for quite some time. Watch for gradual improvement Sunday as we get a slight temperature moderation and some help from bright sunshine, which is starting to be noticeably higher in angle. Look for continued fair weather and a little more temperature moderation and improvement of icy ground Monday as high pressure dominates the weather and low pressure passes far south of our area.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered to numerous rain showers, favoring areas west and north of Boston, midday through afternoon hours. Highs 45-52, occurring late-day. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52 evening, falling slightly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with transition from rain/ice to sleet/snow from northwest to southeast. Snow/sleet accumulation 1-3 inches southern NH and north central MA, up to 1 inch south central MA through northeastern MA, coatings at most southeastern MA and RI but these areas may also have a glaze from falling freezing rain. Icy ground all areas from a rapid temperature drop to the 20s from north to south during the morning then remaining in the 20s afternoon. Wind shifting to N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Icy ground. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Icy ground. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Icy ground. Lows 0-7. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Icy ground but slight improvement. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of icy ground. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Areas of icy ground. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Low pressure passes south of the region early in the period and another disturbance approaches late in the period with shots at unsettled weather. Overall though it looks like a fairly quiet pattern with some temperature variability, averaging close to normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely early in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – February 3 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Did you see your shadow? Here on Woods Hill, I was hauling recycle bins to the curb as the sun came up this morning, and I definitely did not see one. I’m not sure what that means, other than it’s cloudy right now. And we will continue to see that mostly grey sky today as milder, augmented with some ocean moisture and some leftover moisture from dissipated low pressure to the south, moves its way up across our region today. A few rain showers that used to be part of that low may make their way northward across southeastern MA today while the remainder of the region stays rain-free. Snow melt will accelerate but still be rather modest, but will pick up the pace tonight into Thursday as continue to see mild air advected into the region. An approaching strong but slow-moving cold front Thursday will increase the rain chance as we go through the day, first to the north and west of Boston, eventually through the Boston area and southeastward. As the front goes by, cold air will get in at low levels before it does above us, and a wave of low pressure will ripple along the front to prolong the precipitation Thursday night and through much of Friday. We’ll see a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet (depending on the depth of the cold air) from northwest to southeast during the morning hours Friday, though liquid rain may persist at the South Coast as the temperature holds above freezing for several hours, but eventually there we likely see at least pockets of freezing rain and sleet. The air at all levels will become cold enough to support snow eventually, first across southern NH and north central MA where we have the greatest chance to see enough snow accumulation to have to shovel and/or plow. The further southeast you go, the later snow will occur and the less moisture will be available to produce it, so accumulation will be minor at best, but the real issue will be slippery ground from freezing rain (especially) and sleet. And even after the precipitation ends, the temperature will continue to drop so anything unfrozen will freeze as well, and remain with us into the weekend despite dry weather, as it will be cold. The one exception will be the potential for some Cape Cod snow showers due to cold northerly air flow over the relatively warmer water. P.S. As I wrote this, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow down in PA, which according to him means six more weeks of winter! A fun tradition. Adding a little science to it: Phil sees his shadow 85% of the time and his “prediction” is somewhat true on 39% of the time. We’ll see how it goes this year. 😉

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring southeastern MA. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning but a few breaks of sun possible eastern MA and RI. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35 northwest, 35-42 southeast. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with transition from rain/ice to sleet/snow from northwest to southeast. Best chance of over 1 inch of snow southern NH and north central MA. Minor sleet accumulation. Areas of glazing due to freezing rain with the most significant icing potential near and south of I-90 afternoon. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Passing low pressure brings a threat of snow/mix February 7 and snow/mix/rain threat February 10. Mostly dry weather and mostly seasonable chilly weather otherwise.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely early in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – February 2 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

February arrives, and those of you who see the sun early today are the lucky ones. I was more optimistic about today’s weather on yesterday’s update than I should have been, as we’re going to see the sky overtaken by clouds today as an air flow off the ocean meets cold air holding in place. This may result in some snow grains and even patchy freezing drizzle through this evening, so watch out for some slick spots developing on untreated surfaces that are not snow covered. The air flow will switch from easterly to southerly by early Wednesday sending the temperature above freezing and ending the icing threat, but a few rain showers may occur from moisture that used to be part of a low pressure area to the south. We’ll be in a fairly mild south to southwest air flow later Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a slow moving but strong cold front. Other than the potential for a little sun over southeastern areas early on Thursday, are cloudy stretch that gets underway will continue, and rain generated by this front will move into the region from northwest to southeast as the day goes on, but may take until late-day or evening to reach southeastern locations. The part of the forecast to fine-tune is how long that precipitation will last Thursday night into Friday in relation to the arrival of colder air, which probably will mean a transition from rain to freezing rain in some areas, sleet, and eventually snow to end, with some accumulation possible. Of course, we have much model guidance disagreement, but that’s nothing new. My method will be the same as usual – avoid trying to get too detailed until the picture becomes a little bit more clear. Just plan for a wet to potentially wintry precipitation episode starting during Thursday and lasting into Friday. When we get to Saturday, we’re back to cold and dry, as whatever mess we have the days before will have pushed away offshore and a cold high pressure area will be sitting over the Great Lakes region. One except may be some Cape Cod snow showers Saturday from a cold northerly air flow over the relatively warm ocean water.

TODAY: Clouds move in. Patchy freezing drizzle and snow grains afternoon. Highs 26-33. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy freezing drizzle, frozen drizzle, and snow grains in the evening. Temperature steady 26-33 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring RI and eastern MA. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning but a few breaks of sun possible eastern MA and RI. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with freezing rain and/or sleet mixing with or changing to snow before ending. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Dry/cold February 6. Passing low pressure with snow/mix threat February 7. Dry/cold February 8-9. Milder with precipitation threat about February 10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely mid period.

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C-19 Chat Post – February 1 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

On this final day of January, we’ll enjoy bright sunshine with less wind than yesterday, but with last night’s clear sky and light wind along with fresh snowcover, the temperature dropped efficiently with many locations sitting a handful of degrees either side of zero. Your regional cold spot is Norwood at -13F and your “warm” spot is Provincetown where a combination of some wind and the milder ocean water kept the temperature at about 20F. This is a typical spread for a clear, light wind, snowcovered mid winter morning. Temperatures will become a little more uniform during the day today as we have light winds and abundant sunshine and while most areas fail to reach the freezing point it will be nicer feeling than yesterday’s colder temperatures, especially since we will also enjoy lighter wind. We’ll welcome February on Tuesday with a sun/cloud mix and slightly milder air as the high pressure area that sits over us now will move itself offshore. There will be a low pressure area to the south of New England that will be in the process of unraveling itself, and its leftover moisture may cause some rain shower activity for us on Wednesday as we’ll be immersed in much milder air by then on a southerly air flow with high pressure offshore. For our snowcover, expect a slow melt in sunniest areas today (south sides of buildings, etc.) but watch for a quick re-freeze of any meltwater tonight. This process repeats a little more zealously Tuesday and Tuesday evening. By Wednesday, the melting process will be accelerated but we will avoid flooding issue due to the lower water content snow and the lack of heavy rain. We stay mild into Thursday when we’ll have a cold front approaching. The timing of this boundary will help determine when our next widespread precipitation arrives, which will be in the form of rain. Right now I am leaning toward later in the day. As the front goes by, colder air will waste little time getting in and we may transition to a period of freezing rain and/or sleet, then snow to end as a low pressure wave comes along the front and passes just to our south. The amount of moisture falling with cold enough air will ultimately determine both our ice and snow impact, and it’s still a handful of days away so we’ll have time to fine tune this before its occurrence, but for now just plan on a slightly messy end to the work week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 evening, rising overnight. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind S up to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Temperatures steady 30-37 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving late, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with freezing rain and/or sleet mixing with or changing to snow before ending. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Cold/dry February 5-6 weekend. Watch for disturbance to bring snow/mix threat February 7. Cold/dry end to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely mid period.

C-19 Chat Post – January 31 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

The late January storm lived up to expectation, delivering the big snow, especially under synoptic bands that we know would be a factor. There was some good storm surge of 2 to 3 feet along the coast which thankfully occurred outside of high tide, making the flooding less severe than it could have been, although some neighborhoods were impacted by the significant amount of water pushed ashore. The wind damage and power outages were most concentrated on Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore and South Coast, where during the first few hours of the storm the snow was a wetter / pasty consistency that then froze to trees and power lines as the temperature dropped and the wind picked up. The snowfall distribution was as expected for the most part, with a little variability in forecast verification here and there as is nearly always the case with these events. Blizzard conditions were verified for several locations “officially”, including Worcester which wasn’t even under a blizzard warning, essentially making it the “Blizzard of 2022” for all points Worcester eastward. One of the bigger surprises of the storm for me was the persistence of an orphaned snow band that sat in central MA for a few hours after the storm had taken all of its “connected” snow offshore. Areas that initially slightly under-performed for snowfall made it up at that point. If there was a place where amounts were a little lighter than expected, that would be southern NH and north central MA, but this can often be the coast with a fairly quick drop off in amounts away from a storm that is concentrating its full fury closer to the coast, with drier air there and lack of heavier snowfall bands to make it into those areas. But with the storm now behind us, all that’s left is the post storm recovery (cleanup, power restoration), and the weather, while cold, will be fair and favorable for such efforts during these final 2 days of January 2022, under the influence of a cold Canadian high pressure area. The wind will still be up enough today for some additional blowing of the powdery snow that fell, so keep that in mind if you are going to be out doing cleanup or other activities. It’s also important to keep in mind that many areas will be dealing with large snow banks along the sides of streets and especially street corners. Tonight, as winds drop off, the temperature will drop down, with the deep snow cover aiding in radiational cooling of what little solar heat we had during the day, so it’s going to be quite a cold one, with a tiny bit more recovery in temperature expected during the day Monday. And then it’s time for a change as we enter February. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday and we start to moderate more significantly. By Wednesday, a disturbance goes by with a rain shower risk as milder air overtakes the region, and this mild air will continue through Thursday. Previously, it looked like Thursday may turn into wet day, but there are some indications that high pressure ridging will be strong enough to hold the next system off to the north and west that day, keeping our area dry. Going with that idea for now and will keep an eye on it for changes.

TODAY: Sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior, 3-10 coast. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24 evening, rising overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Temperatures steady 30-37 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

February 4 looks unsettled with a frontal boundary pushing through the region with rain and mild air to start and then colder air coming in possibly turning the rain to snow or at least snow showers before it comes to an end. February 5-6 look colder/dry, as does the end of the period, but we may have to watch a disturbance for some precipitation around February 7.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

General idea for this period is a chilly / dry start and a milder / unsettled finish with lots of fine tuning needed for specifics as we get closer to mid month.

C-19 Chat Post – January 30 2022