7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)
It was like winning the weather lottery here in southern New England, having a sharp disturbance about as strong as you can see this time of year combine with a rare shot of southern jet stream energy to form a rapidly intensifying low that then came right up overhead. Impressive winds and heavy rainfall was experienced, as expected. Instead of listing details in terms of rain amounts and wind gust reports, I will let you all discuss that in the comments and I will move along with the updated forecast, which has a few adjustments. Nothing really to change regarding the weather the next few days though. We’re not done with the storm system yet, as the center of it will be completing a tight cyclonic loop north of the Massachusetts border and then move eastward, exiting New England via Maine later today. This set-up will cause a strong westerly wind and wrap-around rain showers as the low departs. Drier air will work in tonight and especially Friday, although during this time we can expected a gusty breeze to continue. Then a nice break for the weekend as high pressure settles to the south and a warmer westerly air flow takes over, but there is a little change for Sunday’s outlook. A system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is going to end up off the East Coast by the end of the weekend, and the overall pattern will be warped a bit from what it looked like earlier, with fair weather hanging on but possibly a more southerly or southeasterly air flow. When Monday comes, a more southerly flow is expected as high pressure to the north of the region also bridges southward just east of the region, keeping the low offshore at bay.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Wind variable becoming W and increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)
A little slower timing expected, with mild air and a risk of rain showers October 22, then a front pushing through with a drying/cooling trend October 23-24 before it warms back up ahead of the next front October 25. That front may bring some unsettled weather by October 26.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)
Overall westerly flow but indications are for a trend toward near to below normal temperatures with at least one threat of precipitation in an overall dry pattern. Leaning away from activity being added to by any moisture from the south as it looks like that will be lacking.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)
High pressure is exiting today but is close enough that we start with sunshine, but a vigorous low pressure trough moving eastward from the Upper Midwest and carrying a surface low will spawn a secondary low just southwest of New England this evening that will move rapidly northeastward right across southern New England tonight, maxing out in intensity by early Thursday as it does a cyclonic loop over NH/VT, then pulls away through Maine later Thursday. This type of track brings a quick shot of heavy rain to the region in most cases, and this won’t be much different than the average case, though the heaviest of the rain will likely occur west of southeastern New England, with another strip of heavier rainfall offshore, leaving this area somewhat “in the middle”, though not to downplay the impact of heavy rain reducing visibility for overnight driving, and road flooding especially as wind/rain knocks down leaves and clogs up storm drains. So even though the heaviest rainfall, which may contain embedded thunderstorms, will have exited pre-dawn, there may be some lingering road and parking lot flooding into the Thursday morning commute to be aware of. The other story with this system is the wind, which will become moderate to strong from the southeast and east ahead of the low’s arrival, variable during its passage and somewhat weaker, then returning from the west to northwest at moderate to strong speeds during Thursday, then diminishing only gradually through Friday as the low expands its size while traveling through eastern Canada as high pressure approaches from the west. Some tree damage is inevitable in our aging forest, and therefore some power outages will likely result. Coastal flooding will not be an issue with this storm system. Need a break? You got it this weekend as high pressure takes over, centered to the south, allowing a nice moderation in temperature, although expect a cold start on Saturday morning and a chilly Sunday morning. It will be the afternoons that are pleasantly mild to warm.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 58-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving evening from southwest to northeast, peaking overnight with moderate to heavy rain and possible thunder, diminishing to scattered rain showers by dawn from south to north. Lows 50-57. Wind SE to E 15-25 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, stronger gusts in all areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with numerous to scattered rain showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind variable 10-20 MPH early to mid morning, becoming W to NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)
High pressure moves off the coast and low pressure heads for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley early next week, and our weather starts mild and fair October 21 then transitions to rain showers followed by clearing and cooling during October 22-23 based on current timing. Next disturbance may bring rain shower threat by later October 24 or early October 25 followed by breezy/cooler weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)
Still feeling that westerly flow should dominate overall but will continue to watch for a digging trough of low pressure trying to kick something more important off in terms of storminess to the south of the region. We will probably see an overall trend to near to below normal temperatures. Still much fine-tuning to do for late month’s weather.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)
High pressure brings fair weather today, even into the first part of Wednesday, and then a vigorous low pressure trough, this time in the jet stream rather than cut off from it, will travel eastward and max out close to New England Wednesday night and early Thursday, with an initial surface low redeveloping pretty much right over southern New England. This will bring wet weather and wind, with the heaviest rainfall and possible thunder being a quick-hitting event for the region, followed by lingering rain showers as the low does a cyclonic loop pretty much right over the region. I feel that models are overdoing both the rainfall amounts and the intensity of the low, however it will be a decent autumn storm system nonetheless. By Friday, we’re back in dry weather but with a gusty breeze and cool air, and after a cold start Saturday, high pressure settling to the south of the region will provide a very nice mid October day to start the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Numerous rain showers early, then scattered to eventually isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-50 MPH, strongest in exposed areas and in higher elevations.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)
High pressure brings fair, mild weather October 20. It will stay mild into the start of next week but a cold front will approach then pass through sometime in the October 22-23 period with rain showers then a switch to cooler weather. Another disturbance may bring a risk of rain showers by the end of the period as a westerly flow dominates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)
Leaning more toward westerly flow domination and less risk of any impact from low pressure to the south from that October 26-28 period I’ve been watching. A storm may still form to the south but there are weaker indications of it being able to come northward if it does. The pattern would support up and down temperatures and limited rain shower risks, but a strong enough westerly flow may allow for a shot of very cool air before the end of the period.

6:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Today is the first day of a new work week for some, and the last day of a long weekend for others. Whatever kind of day it is for you, other than a brief rain shower threat from the South Coast to the Massachusetts South Shore, weatherwise it will turn out to be quite nice, as the shower-causing disturbance pulls away and high pressure approaches. This high will move overhead Tuesday ensuring another nice day. Things change quickly on Wednesday as a vigorous upper level trough of low pressure and resultant surface storm approach from the west, and with the initial low redeveloping just south of New England and moving right up over southeastern New England Wednesday night, this set-up brings a shot of significant rainfall. But it won’t hang around long, and heaviest part will likely be very short-lived, so while I termed the rainfall significant I am stopping short of terming it beneficial, as far as easing our every-growing deficit. The low will be deepening similar to a winter storm as it moves away Thursday, and while that day may start wet at least in parts of the region, dry air will wrap around the departing storm and enter the region on a strong northwest wind, and the October bluster will be in full force. As is typical for one of these systems, it will expand significantly across eastern Canada and the gradient between that low pressure area and a high pressure area moving in from the Midwest will keep a gusty breeze going right through Friday, a day that will feature dry and cool weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy RI and southeastern MA with early morning rain showers possible, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 44-51. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving southwest to northeast mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with rain showers likely. Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, becoming NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)
High pressure moves in both surface and aloft and brings fair weather and a warming trend to the region for the October 19-20 weekend. Surface high pressure slides offshore October 21-22 with a stronger southwesterly air flow, warmer than average temperatures, but eventually a risk of rain showers as a cold front approaches, which should pass through by October 23 if current timing is correct, leading to dry and cooler weather at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)
Westerly flow will try to continue its domination of the pattern with a quick moving system bringing milder weather ahead of it and a risk of rain showers October 24 to early October 25 followed by breezy and cooler weather again. The October 26-28 period is uncertain. The leaning is toward dry weather with moderating temperatures but we still have to watch for the potential for low pressure to develop south of the region, something not really seen by medium range guidance at this point. However even if it does occur, does not necessarily mean it would be close enough for impact – just something to watch being so far into the future.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Today’s discussion will be much shorter than yesterday’s, mainly because there are not really any changes to the forecast beyond minor tweaks. Summarizing, we enter a milder westerly air flow but still have a couple disturbances that may produce rain showers, favoring areas south of Boston with timing pre-dawn Monday, and far northwest of Boston later Monday (a disturbance I’m giving a bit more weight to than previously). A bubble of high pressure brings nice weather Tuesday before low pressure approaches Wednesday, a day that may dawn bright but end wet and windy.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night, favoring areas south of Boston. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Risk of a late-day rain shower central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives west to east afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Breaking clouds and areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW then diminishing.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 15-30 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)
High pressure approaches from the west keeping it cool, dry, and breezy October 18, then settle to the south of the region with dry weather and a warming trend October 19-20 weekend into early next week. A cold front approaching sometime early in the week at least increases the wind and may bring a rain shower risk as well.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring a rain shower risk to start the period followed by a shot of much cooler air. I’m no more confident about the set-up later in the period, but still see a potential set-up that could put low pressure south of the region by the October 26-27 weekend, but not sure if it would be close enough for impact, if it even set-up that way. So for now will stay with the mostly dry and moderating trend for late period but with very low confidence.

10:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
As we progress through the heart of meteorological autumn, so far we have seen nothing very much out of the ordinary. We’ve had some early cool shots in a September that was dominated by milder weather thanks to a fairly stable pattern that placed a strong ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, but close enough to exert its influence on the Northeast quite often. During the first 10+ days of October we have seen a few changes, along with a “typically atypical” occurrence. I don’t really like to think of the type of storm we have just seen as atypical, because that’s not really the right word. We’ve seen that set-up and slight variations of it many times. It was a storm system cut off from the jet stream. It may be more common to see such occurrences in the spring, but it’s very far from unheard of in the autumn. But more importantly, while the system evolved far enough offshore to have the impacts that I was anticipating, we did dodge a bullet as the system would have had more significant impact being closer to the coast. However, we likely would not have seen the intensification had it been closer to the coast as it was drawing on water from the gulf stream for its partial transition toward a tropical system. In fact, NHC felt the transition was enough to give it a name, Melissa. That would not have happened with a storm center a couple hundred miles closer to the coast, however it would have compensated for that somewhat by tightening up the pressure gradient and causing more wind and resultant impacts. Either way, the storm is now heading away from the area, and we do have lingering effects in the form of plentiful low level moisture with lots of drizzle and areas of fog to start out today. But as the day goes on, we will bring more and more dry air back in from the north and conditions will improve, at least in terms of ending the drizzle/fog. As far as clearing goes, that will be tough to really get all the way to the coast, but interior areas should start to see at least breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Any breaks/sun closer to the coast will be a bonus. The dry air will expand and take over the entire region during tonight and Sunday as we finally get into a much friendlier westerly air flow. But Sunday night, trough will swing rapidly across the region and may produce some passing rain showers, lingering into very early Columbus Day Monday, before fair weather returns for another nice day. Then more changes as we sneak in one more nice day Tuesday under the influence of high pressure, before a quick-moving low pressure system and vigorous associated upper level trough moves in during Wednesday when the weather will go downhill…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle gradually diminishing during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon but breaks of sun developing at least interior areas. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH but gusts 20-30 MPH especially eastern coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)
After a midweek system departs, look for a windy/chilly October 17 but with dry weather, a breezy/cool October 18 with more dry weather, and then a continuation of dry weather but with a warming trend over the October 19-20 weekend and possibly through October 21 as well as a high pressure ridge slides across the eastern US and pushes the jet stream northward.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring rain showers then a shot of much cooler air. Toward the end of the period it becomes far less clear of how the pattern may set-up as there have been subtle signs of some type of system with Gulf of Mexico moisture (rare occurrence lately) making a run at the Southeast and Mid Atlantic and possibly putting itself south of New England. What takes place would depend on the speed of the evolution, but I am not certain this takes place at all. Just something to watch for now. Going to lean toward an overall dry pattern with a moderating trend for the WHW forecast area for now.

6:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Low pressure offshore will be close enough to impact the region into early Saturday before pulling away. The most “widespread” rain in areas previously kept dry will occur today and this evening. By Saturday, as the low is on its way out the wind shifts more to the north with slight improvement in the weather, but still early rain shower risks and lots of clouds during the day. By Sunday, we’re into a westerly air flow with fair and milder weather, which will last through Columbus Day Monday, except for a quick-moving disturbance that will sneak through Sunday night with a risk of a passing rain shower. High pressure will control the weather Tuesday, another nice day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, most numerous southeastern MA/RI. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas. TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening, tapering to scattered rain showers overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible morning. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)
The trough spoken about for the middle of the 6-10 day period on yesterday’s update will be moving along and likely produce its wet weather threat October 16 before moving east and leaving the region in mainly dry weather for the remainder of the period, with a brief shot of cool air followed by a warm-up as a high pressure ridge builds over the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)
Eastward shift of features this period should bring a progressive trough eastward, some unsettled weather at times and a cooling trend. Not likely to have a long stretch of wet weather, just not easy to time when the threat may be this far in advance.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)
Our cut off storm will be fighting a large high pressure area to its north and my suspicion about it not being quite as impactful will indeed be the case, not to dismiss the fact there will still be some heavy rain in southeastern areas, where it was most likely, and wind that will be strong enough to take down tree limbs and in some cases some weaker older trees which still carry leaves, and a few coastal flooding issues, though relatively minor. The rainfall comes in waves and is lighter as you go northwest. You can see visual evidence of the dry air fighting this storm if you are in Boston’s NW suburbs looking west and northwest at a strip of clear sky at dawn this morning. Nothing more to add that wasn’t here on the last update other than enough dry air may be involved to save at least part of the Patriots home game tonight from a driving rain, with just a bit of drizzle and passing areas of much lighter rain. It will be breezy and quite cool though, so if you are going to that game, dress accordingly for a gusty breeze and temperatures around 50, definitely not nearly as bad as it can be in the stadium later in the season or during the playoffs! Still looking for a slow pull-away of the storm later Friday after some additional rain, and Saturday, which will still feature a lot of clouds and a threat of a few showers along with continued breezy conditions. But the middle and end of the Columbus Day Weekend will be quite nice with a westerly air flow bringing mostly fair and milder weather but we will have to watch for a disturbance moving through around Sunday night or early Monday with a brief rain shower risk.
Forecast details…
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, heaviest southeastern MA/RI. Highs 52-59. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a rain shower risk early, then partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Generally westerly flow, overall pattern is dry, but trough crossing eastern Canada will parent a low pressure area which will drag a warm front / cold front combo across the region with a wet weather threat about mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Still a little uncertainty as to the overall pattern heading from mid toward late October. Taking medium range model bias into account going to hold onto the mostly west to east flow with a warm-up peaking at mid period, and mostly dry weather.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)
A storm cut off from the jet stream will do a cyclonic loop south of New England over the next few days, impacting our weather into Saturday, with peak impact Thursday/Friday when southeastern New England will see its heaviest rain and strongest wind, and also coastal issues with areas of moderate flooding. This system pulls away during the weekend and and westerly air flow returns by Sunday. Highlights of storm impact will be 1-3 inches of rain possible over much of the area, except less in southern NH and pockets of above 3 inches possible in southeastern MA and RI where some flooding may occur. However with recent dry weather and low water levels in rivers, etc. the flooding will not be as bad had we been wetter leading up to this event. Coastal flooding is most likely along east-facing shores and closest to high tide times. Wind impacts will be mainly to old trees, which is often the case around here these days, but this leads to a power outage risk. Wind gusts will be strongest in coastal and southeastern areas. The storm center itself will not be particularly intense, but its the pressure gradient between it and a large high pressure area in southeastern Canada that will create the wind.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Periods of rain pushing into southern and eastern MA, RI and eastern CT. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest southeastern MA/RI. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, heavy at times favoring southeastern areas. Highs 52-59. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)
Air flow becomes more westerly for this 5-day period with dry weather October 13, a disturbance from the west possibly bringing a few showers October 14-15, then dry weather after that. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.

6:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)
The cold front that went through the region with fairly widespread showers Monday evening has settled just to the south of the region, and while today is cooler and drier, the sky condition will range from mostly cloudy along the South Coast to at least partly sunny over northern MA and southern NH. Some lingering rain will dry up as it moves southeastward across the region during early to mid morning. High pressure will build across southeastern Canada through midweek and as this happens, an ocean storm will form well south of New England. This is a difficult set-up to forecast, as the storm will be in a region removed from the stronger jet stream steering, so its path is rather difficult to foretell. We’ve seen computer guidance range from a scenario that shows not much impact other than a gusty breeze and a little rain in southern areas, to a more direct impact of stronger wind and several days of wet weather. At this time, I’m leaning toward a scenario somewhere in between, but with a leaning toward a more southerly placement of the storm and less significant impact here. This will still have to be closely monitored. The time frame should be in the Wednesday night to Saturday morning time frame, with Thursday/Friday the 2 most likely days for the most direct impact. Will get more detailed on the next blog post…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 20-35 MPH South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy with periods of rain Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy with a chance of rain Cape Cod. Lows 40-47. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Westerly flow for this period, risk of a few passing rain showers at times early and again at end of period otherwise generally dry with temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)
A cold front slowly approaches today then moves through tonight and sits not too far south of the region Tuesday as high pressure builds northwest and north of the region, turning today’s mild and breezy day into a much cooler one for Tuesday. The front will produce rain showers as it crosses the region tonight and some of them may linger near Cape Cod and the South Coast into Tuesday morning. The Wednesday through Friday weather largely depends on the development and reach of low pressure south of the region. Its center will probably form pretty far to the south, and won’t be allowed to move too far north due to high pressure remaining strong to our north, but the size of its moisture shield should be enough for at least a lot cloudiness during those days and the air flow between the high and low will at least be enough to bring the risk of some drizzle at times, and possibly some rain at times, but for now I’m continuing to lean toward most of that being to the south and therefore the greatest chance of that being nearer to the South Coast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers possible. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind SW shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers South Coast / Cape Cod morning, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy South Coast with a risk of rain at times. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Cautiously optimistic that we’ll see low pressure passing far enough southeast of the region and high pressure to the northwest with fair weather for the October 12-13 weekend, but low confidence forecast at the moment. A more westerly air flow develops thereafter, milder with a few rain showers possible October 14-15 with fair weather returning to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)
Generally west to east flow pattern expected with some up and down temperatures and a few generally minor rain shower threats as the pattern is dry overall.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)
Despite some medium range model forecasts that say otherwise, I see no reason to change my forecast at this point, regarding low pressure south of the region as we get into the coming week. Our main weather players will be high pressure, one retreating to the east today, another approaching from the west Tuesday then shifting mainly north of the region but close enough to keep low pressure to the south heading toward midweek. What about Monday? Same deal as previously, our one “warmer and more humid” day with a risk of rain showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers early. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Highs 63-70. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Currently expecting low pressure to be held at bay offshore with just an easterly to northerly air flow and mainly dry weather here to start the period, then a transition to a more westerly flow mid to late period, with a weak trough from the west bringing a risk of some rain showers around October 14 (Columbus Day) and/or October 15. Temperatures should not depart too far from seasonal normals.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)
Zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected with minor rain shower threats and mainly dry weather, changeable temperatures but not too drastically departed from normal values.

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)
A big “H” sits on New England today, providing pretty much the perfect autumn day. Hope you can enjoy it! High pressure slides off to the east with return southerly flow Sunday increasing the breeze (which you will notice), the humidity (which you won’t notice) and the cloud cover (gradually), but still a nice day overall, just maybe better for flying a kite in the afternoon. Our one unsettled day in this 5-day period comes Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the region with rain showers around. This front should be far enough offshore by Tuesday for dry weather to return, but during the Tuesday / Wednesday period while we get into cooler and dry weather again we will have to contend with what starts out as a northerly flow then switches to more easterly as low pressure forms south of New England and interacts with a “tilted over” high pressure area that starts out west of the region then bridges north of it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 interior lower elevations, 43-50 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 62-69. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers evening. Areas of fog. Damp. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Drying out. Highs 63-70. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)
The first couple days of this period may see a continuation of an east to northeast flow with high pressure to the north and west of the region and low pressure offshore. We may have to watch that low to see if it gets close enough to bring more cloudiness or even some wet weather to portions of the area. During the October 12-13 weekend and beyond we should transition to more of a westerly flow with dry weekend weather and a risk of rain showers by October 14. Temperatures during this time should be not too far from seasonal normals.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected with minor rain shower threats and mainly dry weather, changeable temperatures but not too drastically departed from normal values.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)
Low pressure departs today, and in comes drier air and reinforcing cooling on a gusty breeze. Then high pressure moves overhead tonight into Saturday, bringing some interior areas a frost tonight but providing a bright and beautiful fall day Saturday. Nice weather will continue Sunday, milder after a chilly start, and not quite as bright as clouds advance due to warming aloft and low pressure to the west. This system will arrive with mild, humid air and a good chance of rain showers Monday, but should be moving along enough that drier air will return to the region during Tuesday as another high pressure area builds into the Great Lakes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Any early rain showers ending. Clouds linger longest NH Seacoast and eastern MA, otherwise trending sunnier with passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy shallow fog over interior lower elevations and near ponds. Areas of frost except urban centers and immediate shore. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind N 10-20 MPH early, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 interior lower elevations, 43-50 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers evening. Areas of fog. Damp. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Drying out. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Low pressure offshore and high pressure to the west may not move much for a few days with dry weather and a seasonably cool northerly air flow resulting here, then high pressure should expand over the region for milder weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Some movement in features from west to east with a weakening low pressure trough bringing milder air and a rain shower risk October 14-15 followed by high pressure and drier weather returning October 16-18.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)
The cool air is in control now and will be into the weekend before moderation occurs. The pattern is a little more active in the short term as the frontal boundary that brought the chill is sitting just to the south and will serve as a pathway for low pressure, which will bring a period of rain tonight and early Friday. High pressure brings dry weather for later Friday and much of the weekend. The next low pressure area brings wet weather as early as Sunday night and more likely Monday, accompanied by warmer and more humid air as well by that time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off early morning. Breaking clouds later morning then clearing afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of fog forming. Risk of frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior low elevations, 40-45 elsewhere except 45-50 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Frost likely away from coastal and urban locations. Lows 30-35 interior lower elevations, 35-40 elsewhere except 40-45 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)
Drier and cooler air returns October 8 as low pressure moves away and high pressure sits to the west. October 9-12 look mainly dry overall but may be rather cool as the pattern blocks up somewhat with upper level low pressure to the east and a ridge to the west. Some moderation may occur later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)
High pressure should be in general control with mainly dry weather and variable temperatures.