7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)
A pretty straightforward forecast for the Monday-Friday work week, which half way through sees the arrival of spring, the Vernal Equinox, on Wednesday. And that day may be the most spring-feeling one of the week, as it will feature a milder interlude between a chilly start and end to the period. We start with high pressure keeping a disturbance south of the region today, and high pressure dominating on Tuesday, with a chill in the air. A little milder air sneaks in as high pressure sinks to the south Wednesday, allowing a southwesterly fair flow to arrive. A cold front will cross the region Thursday, and I will have to add the risk of rain showers to the forecast, having previously thought this would be a dry system. Some guidance, which is known to be performing very poorly, is living in a fantasy land in trying to develop a storm system close enough for significant precipitation late this week, but in reality the evolution of that system will be much further offshore, and its intensification will help pull a second cold front into the region Friday, with a colder ending to the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the lower to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)
March 23-24 weekend looks dry but with a windy chill Saturday transitioning to a breezy but milder Sunday. Watching for a period of unsettled weather in the March 25-27 time frame as it trends cooler to colder with high pressure building across southeastern Canada and low pressure traveling near or south of New England.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Drier weather returns for much of this period with a slow moderating trend as high pressure gains control of the weather.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
High pressure will control the weather through Wednesday with dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions overall. A cold front will come through the region Thursday with some cloudiness but for now leaving the threat of any precipitation out of the forecast, which details as follows…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting up to 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
The energy that goes by to the north and brings the cold front through the day before will merge with offshore energy into an ocean storm which may throw additional cloudiness back into the region and otherwise create blustery and colder weather March 22 into March 23. This will probably delay the arrival of the next system so that March 24 is fair. Watch for a minor system with light precipitation late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
Overall pattern looks somewhat milder and mainly dry at this time as high pressure should be dominant, maybe making the “In like a lion, out like a lamb” folklore quite true this year.

9:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)
This period covers the last 4 full days of the winter and the day of the Vernal Equinox, or the official astronomical arrival of spring. All of them will be dry. A brisk and seasonably chilly westerly flow will dominate the weekend before it settles early in the week, only to pick up again by midweek. To give you an idea of how quiet the pattern will be, the most notable weather event of the next 5 days will probably be the instability clouds that have formed to the west and will try to cross the sky today while being thwarted by drying air. This probably means most of these clouds will be over the hills west and north of the Boston area, with fewer or even no clouds southeast. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting up to 30 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting up to 20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)
Cold front passes by March 21 but may only produce some cloudiness and no precipitation. Dry, cooler March 22-23. Milder trend later in the period but may be introduced by some wet weather in the March 24-25 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)
Overall pattern looks somewhat milder and mainly dry at this time as high pressure should be dominant.

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
Beware the Ides of March! Why? Because they might fool you into thinking it’s April with the mild air that will be in place, reaching or exceeding 60 in some places. But the usual exceptions will be there, especially the South Coast and Cape Cod, where 40s to middle 50s will do it thanks to a wind off the chilly ocean water. Portions of the eastern coastal areas will also be cooler with a wind partially off the water at times, especially in locations that jut out from the general coastline slightly. The other price to pay for the mild southerly flow today will be rain showers at times, ahead of a cold front, but it won’t be a rainy day by any stretch. We will see the shower activity tend to favor southeastern MA with time, where it will also linger longer, well into this evening. Finally, a cold front will rid the region of not only showers but mild air, replacing it will a more seasonable March chill, a little bit Saturday, and a little bit more Sunday. The trade-off will be that the least chilly day on Saturday will also be the windier of the 2, with considerably less wind Sunday. The chilly air will continue into early next week and the current indications are the disturbance that was on the watch list for Monday will pass just south of the region, keeping the weather dry for the balance of the period. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts toward morning.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
And just like that, winter’s officially over, at least by the calendar, as the Vernal Equinox occurs March 20. I can, with moderate confidence, declare that the storm threat is a little less during the first few days of this period with no phasing of northern and southern jet stream energy likely, resulting in just a cold frontal passage early March 21 to make the first full day of spring feel a little more like winter, but other than a passing rain or snow shower that day it looks generally dry through March 23, with a rain threat becoming possible by the end of the period. As mentioned yesterday, this drier overall pattern in the next 10 days is favorable for reducing the flood threat on rivers due to melting snow in areas to the north that have a much heavier snow pack.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
The latter days of March 2019 look like they will transition toward a traditional spring-like pattern. After some fair and cooler weather to start the period we’ll need to watch for a slower-moving, strung out storm system to bring some unsettled weather.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)
Milder air arrives today although sun will be thwarted initially by some stubborn cloudiness due to a bit of an atmospheric inversion to star the day, but we will see some sun break out. Clouds return tonight and we probably won’t see much of any on Friday as a cold front approaches, eventually producing rain showers. It will also be the mildest day for most of the region, exception being the South Coast where wind will be coming straight off the very cool ocean water. Dry weather returns over the weekend, with a brisk breeze Saturday as it turns cooler, but more tranquil under arriving high pressure St. Patrick’s Day Sunday although a little colder still. Continuing to watch a small low pressure system that will make a run at the region Monday, producing at least some cloudiness. Its track will determine if enough moisture will get into the region for a little snow/mix, and the most likely region for this to happen as it stands now is to the south. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start then partly sunny. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy start then mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers likely. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of snow/mix favoring southern areas. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)
Although this period remains somewhat vulnerable to wintry weather as temperatures will be running on the colder side of normal and the passage of a couple low pressure troughs is likely, the configuration of these may keep the region safe from significant storminess. This is how it’s currently seen but that by no means leaves the region in the clear of threat. Will continue to monitor. It may just as easily stay mainly dry for the entire period which would be good news as it would minimize flood potential from melting snow entering rivers.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)
Storm system may threaten early in the period, with another threat possible late in the period as we enter a transitional pattern toward one more typical of springtime, and right on time too as we’ll be in the early days of it.

7:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
High pressure brings a cool but tranquil day to southeastern New England today, but you’ll notice high cloudiness streaming in during the day which may thicken up enough to blot out the sun before we would see it set. This is a signal of warmer air moving into the region, which often happens aloft first. At the surface it will be here tomorrow, and especially Friday. But tomorrow is the pick, weather-wise, as Friday eventually turns wet ahead of an approaching cold front. By the weekend, look for a cool-down but with mainly dry weather as we will be in a brisk northwesterly air flow Saturday and then more tranquil for St. Patrick’s Day as high pressure moves in. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds then sun fades later. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk for brief light snow/sleet/rain crossing the region. Lows 28-35 by late evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light variable evening, light SW overnight.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
This is a vulnerable period for colder than average weather and also 1 or 2 potential winter weather events. A small system will pass nearby on March 18 and may be close enough for snow/mix. We will have to watch the evolution of a potential second system mid to late period. No guarantee anything happens but also cannot blindly rule it out.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Another weather system may threaten around March 24 and this period will transition from chilly to somewhat milder weather, but any time you look into the future and see milder chances in March you must keep in mind snowcover still very plentiful to the north and the cold ocean water, both of which can have local and regional impact. So even though by then the calendar says “spring”, that season in this part of the country is never a slam dunk to start off all warm and sunny with everything blooming. In fact, even in a milder pattern, it’s not starting that way here. That comes later…

6:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
If you’re up early enough, you’ll find clouds dominant in a good portion of southern NH, eastern MA, and northern RI, and some of those will slip further south into mid morning as a cold front and upper level disturbance pass by. A few snow flurries may visit southeastern NH but will not cause any problems as they pass by. All of this will be out of here during mid morning and the rest of the day will be sunny, breezy, and somewhat cooler than yesterday as a fresh push of chilly air from Canada moves in, but nothing like the visit we had last week! The chill hangs around into Wednesday, but it will be a very nice day with light wind. A warm front crosses there region Wednesday night with cloudiness and a little light snow/rain possible, so if you see snowflakes falling at some point Wednesday night, don’t worry, as it will be fleeting and insignificant. This sets up a mild day Thursday with plenty of sun. Another mild day is on tap for Friday, probably warmer than Thursday, but the price to pay will be afternoon and evening rain showers ahead of a cold front which will return the region to a little more March reality during the course of Saturday, which will be cooler with a gusty wind. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then clearing mid morning with a sunny midday and afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of a little light snow/rain late evening. Lows 28-35 late evening but may rise slowly overnight. Wind light variable evening, light SW overnight.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s, cooler South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
St. Pat’s Day Sunday March 17 looks dry and chilly with high pressure in control. Below normal temperatures are still expected to dominate the balance of the period and we will have to continue to be on the look-out for potential storminess with the threat of frozen precipitation or a mix. Regardless of the weather, the Vernal Equinox occurs on March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
A transition from below normal temperatures to milder may take place this period with still a risk of a wintry event to start the period and a risk of a significant precipitation producing system around mid period. Could it be the 3rd month in a row with a storm system on the 24th? Bets anyone? Time will tell.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
Quick caution: If you are heading outside early this morning, temperatures are near to below freezing in some areas with black ice! …
A pretty straightforward forecast as we head toward the Ides of March, which will be the mildest of the next 5 days, but before we get there we will have a somewhat mild and breezy day today with a moderate westerly flow behind yesterday’s low pressure area, some cloudiness to start Tuesday as an upper disturbance passes (don’t think the snow showers will survive the trip from the north), fair and chilly weather the balance of Tuesday and Wednesday but some cloudiness arriving Wednesday as warmer air starts to make its way in above us, then a warm-up starting Thursday as high pressure builds along the East Coast and a surface high pressure area slides offshore. That mildest day I mentioned will unfortunately will also be the wettest as rain showers are likely with the approach of a cold front. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
Cooler air and a gusty breeze with some lingering cloudiness as an upper level disturbance crosses the region Saturday March 16 then fair and chilly weather as high pressure builds in for St. Patrick’s Day Sunday March 17. A chilly air mass will keep control of the region early next week and by the end of the period. Vernal Equinox March 20 may not feel very spring-like. In addition, we may have to deal with a storm system moving into or developing near the region with the threat of some wintry precipitation. That part of the forecast is very low confidence and just something to keep an eye on going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)
Expect below normal temperatures and at least one more storm threat that may include frozen precipitation at some point during this period.

3:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
Reminder: If you have clocks that don’t automatically set themselves, make sure you moved them ahead 1 hour for the start of Daylight Savings Time, which begins at the moment this blog update was posted! A brief bout of wintry precipitation for parts of the region this morning as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and send an arm of moisture across New England, initially bumping into retreating cold air. Once this gets by the region, drier air will return behind the system Monday, although it will take a while for cold air to arrive so it will be on the milder side during the day Monday. By Tuesday, upper level low pressure crosses the region, possibly producing some snow showers to start, otherwise dry and colder air will dominate. The chill will ease by later Wednesday as it remains dry. High pressure slides to the East Coast and allows a warm-up by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Mix/rain south, snow/sleet north with accumulation of a coating to 1 inch, but locally up to 2 inches north central MA and southwestern NH. Precipitation changing to rain south to north late morning and midday then tapering off to rain showers and drizzle from west to east late in the day. Areas of fog. Highs 37-44. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH interior and up to 30 MPH coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Early rain showers and drizzle possible. Patchy fog evening. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with a risk of snow showers, then partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
A mild Ides of March with rain showers, then a cold front passes and re-introduces colder air to the region over the March 16-17 weekend, continuing into early next week. Will have to watch for the potential of some storminess that can produce frozen precipitation as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
This period will also feature colder than normal temperatures with a potential for some wintry precipitation 1 or 2 times.

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
The chill was in the air again this morning but you’ll notice that difference between January sun and March sun in a bigger way today, as even though we still will have below average temperatures, the air will have much less bite to it than it would have 2 months ago under the same set-up. No big changes to the overall outlook going forward. It’s funny how sometimes the sooner details are the tougher things to forecast, and that’s the case with the rain/snow line and its timing as our next storm system gets underway during Sunday morning. I’ve decided to just leave the forecast the same and not make any adjustments to expected snowfall, with a coating to 1 inch in general, probably nothing at all on the immediate South Coast / Cape Cod, but possibly up to 2 inches across the higher elevations of interior MA and southern NH with a 3-inch amount not impossible to achieve. The remainder of the forecast going forward is largely unchanged, with milder air behind the system Monday, and a chilly Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44, coolest along the shoreline. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn RI/CT/central MA, by dawn eastern MA/southern NH. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow changing to rain from south to north during the morning then tapering to rain showers west to east late in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a risk of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Watch for patchy black ice forming. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of snow showers early, then sun/cloud mix. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
High pressure builds along the East Coast and a cold front slowly approaches from the west so that temperatures go above normal March 14-15, but rain showers are likely on March 15. Colder air returns to the region during the March 16-17 weekend and beyond. What is uncertain at this time is whether or not there will be any additional storminess in the region which would bring a frozen precipitation threat. Will be re-evaluating this as things become more clear.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
The weather pattern will likely produce colder than average temperatures and may produce a couple of wintry precipitation threats during this period.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)
Today’s the day that our arctic outbreak eases up and you’ll notice it, maybe not first thing this morning as temperatures sit in the upper single digits to teens as of just after sunrise, but they will recover to above freezing throughout the region for the first time in a few days with the help of stronger March sunshine and a southwest breeze. During tonight, low pressure passes harmlessly south of the area. Saturday will be a great day by early March standards with a little bit milder feel due to more sunshine and fairly light wind, however there will be slight exception. This will be one of the first days this year in which the coastline will feel cooler than the interior. It’s not going to be due to a classic sea breeze, as the wind will already be coming onshore due to the center of high pressure being north of the region and the air flow around it, but the effect is the same. But whether you’re at the coast or inland, enjoy Saturday’s weather, because Sunday will be an entirely different kind of day – overcast, starting snowy, and turning rainy. This won’t be a big storm by any means but enough snow may fall to slick up untreated roads during the morning, so use caution if you plan on traveling. As far as snow accumulations, they will be minor, with a coating to 1 inch in general, probably nothing at all on the immediate South Coast / Cape Cod, but possibly up to 2 inches across the higher elevations of interior MA and southern NH with a 3-inch amount not impossible to achieve. Also, do not forget this is the weekend we change the clocks 1 hour ahead (2AM Sunday) to being Daylight Savings Time. The parent low pressure area causing Sunday’s unsettled weather will crank up and head from the Great Lakes across eastern Canada during Monday, which will be a breezy but fairly mild day. This set-up is not nearly as powerful as the one that caused the big wind event not too long ago, even though on the weather map it looks somewhat similar. It is a much weaker set up overall with a far less impressive pressure gradient. By Tuesday, upper level low pressure crosses the region and may help instigate a few snow showers, at least cloudiness, for a time, and otherwise it will be a breezy and colder day than the one just before it. Forecast details begin on the next line…
TODAY: Sunshine, filtered later by some high cloudiness. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-15 interior, 15-20 coast. Wind light S.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44, coolest along the shoreline. Wind light E.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn RI/CT/central MA, by dawn eastern MA/southern NH. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow changing to rain from south to north during the morning then tapering to rain showers west to east late in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of snow showers early, then sun/cloud mix. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)
High pressure builds along the East Coast enough to provide fair weather and a moderating temperature trend during the middle of next week (March 13-14). March 15 may be quite mild but probably have rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west. The March 16-17 weekend looks colder at this time but mainly dry.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)
The weather pattern will likely produce colder than average temperatures and may produce a couple of wintry precipitation threats during this period.

6:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
Today will be the 3rd similar day in a row, cold, breezy, and just a risk of a few snow flurries as yet another minor disturbance passes. Then we moderate a little bit on Friday, although still remain colder than normal, with a minor low pressure system missing to the south Friday night. This will leave us with a decent Saturday before the next storm system impacts the region Sunday. There should be enough cold air for this system to start as snow upon arrival Sunday morning, but warmer air will win out at all levels of the atmosphere, transitioning the snow to sleet then rain rather quickly by midday, but not before some possible minor snow accumulation. This system will not hang around long as its parent low rapidly moves through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada, wrapping dry air around its back side and pushing that into the region by Monday, which will be windy and drier, but not all that cold. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny with isolated snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow to sleet to rain, ending late. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Looks like a cold upper low crosses the region with clouds and a risk of snow showers March 12, followed by moderating temperatures and fair weather March 13-14. Timing of next low pressure system should bring it into the region March 15 with mix/rain showers possible. A progressive pattern should replace this with windy and colder weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)
This period will likely end up seasonable to colder than normal with at least 1 chance of storminess which may include a mix or snow. However, this is a low confidence forecast and subject to much adjustment.

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
Cold air dominates the next few days with a west to northwest flow from southern Canada across the Great Lakes. Weak low pressure passes south of the region later Friday but should keep most of its precipitation (snow/mix) to the south of the region. Dry weather is back for the start of the weekend. The next storm system looks like a Great Lakes Cutter which may have just enough cold air to work with at the start for snow/mix at the onset but this looks like a mainly rain event as milder air will win out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start and finish. Partly sunny in-between with a few snow flurries possible. Highs 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 9-16. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers midday and afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late, favoring the South Coast. Highs 33-40. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM brief snow/mix to rain. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Fair, windy, colder March 11. Cold with possible snow showers March 12 from an upper disturbance. Dry, moderating temperatures March 13-14. Unsure on timing but may turn cooler and unsettled by March 15.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Up and down temps and several bouts of unsettled weather are possible during a transitional pattern, or a battle between milder air to the southeast and more cold air wanting to come out of Canada.

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)
No big changes to the outlook previously outlined. A cold air mass dominates the region the next few days, with a little instability creating a daily snow shower risk today through Thursday, most enhanced chance being Wednesday with the aid of an upper level disturbance. By late Friday we’ll be watching a weak system approaching from the west, but it looks somewhat similar to the one that gave NYC minor snow and southwestern New England flurries last Friday, and may do very much the same thing as much of it passes south of the region Friday night. Will keep an eye on it in case since it’s more than a few days away. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a brief snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon snow showers. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late, favoring the South Coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Clearing. Risk of snow early, favoring the South Coast. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)
Low pressure likely travels through the Great Lakes bringing a brief mix to rain threat here March 10 to early March 11. Colder air follows briefly and an upper low may bring snow showers March 12. Dry weather and moderating temperatures follow this as high pressure moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)
In typical March fashion I have my doubts any warm-up is long lasting as a system arrives from the west early in the period with some unsettled weather and some chill probably returns thereafter. This pattern at mid month remains fairly uncertain so this is a low confidence outlook at this time.

7:23AM

COMMENTARY
It was about time I got hammered, oh not by snow, but by mother nature vividly telling me I blew that forecast. To be fair, I wasn’t the only one, even the ones with higher amounts still under-forecast amounts in some locations. But I’ll stand up as the worst-of-the-lot on this one. It was sorta like expecting a medium coffee and being forced to drink a large latte. And I’m not supposed to consume that much caffeine! Anyway, on we go, heart palpitations and all. We’ll chat in the comments about the specifics of how the storm unfolded as we go through the day, but first I’m going to quickly update the blog going forward, because no matter how bad the forecast was on this one, there is still weather coming up and I do remain fairly confident about the overall pattern at least in the short term.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
What may very well be the biggest snowstorm of the season is making its exit but will do so with a little lingering snow this morning. Accumulation is basically a done deal except a little left to go to the southeast. And the cold air will take its time getting in, holding off until tonight, so that gives basically a full day for cleanup in which it is possible to get all paved surfaces clear, though many will remain wet so we’ll have to watch for ice forming on those areas tonight. Cold air then overtakes the region Tuesday on. We have 2 more system to watch, as mentioned yesterday, one bringing a risk of snow showers later Wednesday and another snow/mix threat later Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast morning with areas of snow tapering off west to east and only minor additional accumulation. Breaking clouds this afternoon with partial sun possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 0.
TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a brief snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon snow showers. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow flurry. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
2 more unsettled weather threats centered around March 10 and 12, favoring mix/rain over snow. Temperatures start below normal then trend milder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)
Temperatures start mild then trend colder. Unsettled weather most likely mid period, about March 15-16.