C-19 Chat Post – November 19 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Discussion…

A solid shot of cold air today accompanied by wind, while making it feel more like mid winter than later autumn, is not indicative of the longer term mild pattern we are in but is a good illustration of the cold shots we still get during a pattern like that, especially when our area will not be far from the boundary between more persistent warmth to the south and plenty of cold air helped a long by a lot of early snowfall in Canada. So we’re in the cold now, and that will be around into tomorrow, although after a very cold start tomorrow morning, we’ll start to moderate during the day as high pressure shifts off to the south and we get a milder west to southwest air flow, which brings in much milder air for Friday, the boundary having slipped north. But it comes back to the south again somewhat over the weekend and we get onto the cooler side again, although only slightly cooler this time as there is not a mechanism to deliver a good shot of cold from Canada. It will be more typical of a pattern we’ve seen many times since summer where high pressure slides across eastern Canada and we get more of a north to northeast air flow, weaker in comparison to the gusty northwest wind we see today.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

As mentioned previously, trying to time systems beyond a few days is difficult at best. Still looking like an unsettled day on November 23 as high pressure shifts offshore and a disturbance and frontal system moves in with a rain or rain shower threat. The front settles to the south after that and timing the next low pressure area is a challenge, with additional unsettled weather possible anywhere from later November 24 through November 25, but not likely for the entire time. High pressure should move in with drier weather later in the period, including Thanksgiving Day (November 26).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The last days of November to the start of December should see a continued generally westerly (zonal) flow with our area often in the boundary zone between mild air to the south and colder air to the north. Early period is most likely to see some unsettled weather with a front in the vicinity.

C-19 Chat Post – November 18 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Discussion…

A cold front moves through the region today with some cloudiness and a chance of a passing rain/snow shower, introducing a significant shot of cold air for midweek before high pressure that moves in from the Great Lakes with the cold air slips to the south and we see a warming trend later this week, mildest by Friday, then a slight cool down for Saturday as a weaker cold front slips through the region early in the day.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain and/or snow showers are possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Current timing of systems in a general west to east air flow brings a warm front through on November 22 with cloudiness but not much of a rain threat. Cold front follows with a rain shower threat November 23. This front may sit just to the south with a wave of low pressure bringing some wet weather later November 24, exiting early November 25 with a shot of cooler but dry weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The last days of November to the start of December should see a continued generally westerly (zonal) flow with our area often in the boundary zone between mild air to the south and colder air to the north. Mid period is most likely to see some unsettled weather with a front in the vicinity.

C-19 Chat Post – November 17 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Discussion…

A west to northwesterly air flow will dominate the first 3 days of the week, with a colder trend. A few rain/snow showers will accompany a cold front and upper level disturbance passing through the region on Tuesday, bringing air feeling more like winter by Wednesday. A moderating trend gets underway later in the week as high pressure, first to our west helping to deliver the colder air, slips off to the south and helps push in milder air.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain and/or snow showers are possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

We’ll be close to a boundary between mild air to our south and Canadian cold, as noted previously. We may find it flip flopping back and forth on us one day to the next which will help determine temperatures. Right now my best guess is we will be on the cooler side of the boundary November 21, 23, and 25, the milder side the other 2 days, and the only chance of significant precipitation (probably rain or rain showers) would come about November 24.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

The final 5 days of the month look like they will be dominated by a general westerly air flow but still with us not too far from the cold / warm air boundary, so at least once in there we should see air mass changes and at least one opportunity for precipitation, probably around mid period.

C-19 Chat Post – November 16 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Discussion…

First I would like to mention the minor coastal flooding threat a couple hours either side of the late morning high tide today as we have one of the astronomically higher tides of the year. High pressure hangs on and gives us a bright start to the day, if you were up early enough. Clouds advance quickly today ahead of a warm front which will pass by later today. While the warm front does not have any precipitation with it, it will open the door for a surge of warm and humid air this evening ahead of a strong cold front which will then cross the region late tonight from west to east, as its parent low tracks north of here. This front will produce a fairly solid area of showers/downpours and possibly some thunder. While the heaviest rain will occur in a fairly narrow, quick-moving band, it can result in street flooding, especially where fallen leaves block storm drains. Wet leaves on roads also can be as slippery as snow/ice, not to mention the reduce visibility, so anyone on the road later tonight will need to exercise caution. The other threat is wind. While it will be breezy leading up to and into the time of the showers, there can be some particularly strong wind gusts aided by heavier showers bringing down much stronger winds from above. Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible. The window of greatest risk will be 10PM to 2AM from west to east across the region. Monday’s weather will feature a chilly wind with sun and clouds as a cold Canadian air mass enters via the Great Lakes. A disturbance will come along in the flow on Tuesday with more cloudiness and a rain/snow shower risk, though no significant precipitation will occur. This disturbance will serve to drag even colder air into the region for the middle of next week.

Details…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers moving in from west to east evening, including a band of heavier showers and possible thunder during the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. window but lasting only a short time in any one area, then rain showers exiting from west to east overnight. Temperatures steady or rising slightly evening. Overnight lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W. During the passage of the heaviest showers wind gusts in excess of 30 MPH at lower elevations and in excess of 45 MPH at higher elevations may occur.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54 occurring in the morning then falling through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

We’ll be near the boundary of mild air to the south and Canadian cold air. Currently expecting this region to be on the milder side of the boundary November 20 & 22, the cooler side November 21 & at the end of the period. Despite the boundary nearby, the overall pattern is dry to start with, but the precipitation change may increase toward the end of the period with the possibility of a more significant wave of low pressure entering the region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Indications are that we will remain in that battle zone area between the mild to the south and the cold to the north, with additional opportunities for unsettled weather, with dry interludes, and variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – November 15 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Discussion…

Today will be a day of cold air advection. What does that mean for today in particular? It means that we’ll be delivered a modified cold air mass from Canada, although with temperatures already having dropped due to an overcast/wet/cool day yesterday and some clearing last night, what will really happen today when you factor the incoming cool air with the diurnal warming of sunlight, the temperature really just won’t go up that much. It will feel even cooler than it is because of a developing gusty breeze, as well as some passing patches of cloudiness, the result of a leftover layer of moisture a few thousand feet off the ground and incoming colder air above that. There may be enough initial instability for a few sprinkles of rain, with this most likely occurring north of I-90. These clouds will dissipate this evening and the wind will drop off as high pressure moves across the region. This is a recipe for radiational cooling, when any warmth of the sunlight radiates quickly out toward space and the temperature drops off. It may drop significantly enough to match the dew point in some interior lower elevations, which would result in patches of fog forming. Sunday, the high pressure area will move offshore and we’ll have a warm front pass by in the morning and midday hours, which will introduce a warmer southerly air flow for the balance of the day, setting the stage for a round of showers (maybe even a rumble of thunder) as a pretty potent cold front approaches from the west by evening, parented by low pressure tracking eastward and passing north of our area Sunday night. Besides the risk for brief heavy rain showers, we’ll have to watch for some strong wind gusts, as the air not that far above us will be blowing strongly, and any heavier showers can drag some of this wind down to the surface in gusts. Thankfully with a lot of the trees now having lost most of their leaves, this should lessen the chance of damage and therefore reduce the power outage chances. However, there still can be some isolated damage & resulting outages as this front and its band of showers crosses from west to east. Monday will be another cold advection day with plenty of wind and a sky of sun and passing clouds. A disturbance will move this way via the Great Lakes on Tuesday and bring plenty of clouds along with a chance of a few rain and/or snow showers as it will be chilly at the surface and cold aloft. This system is gone by Wednesday and high pressure in the Great Lakes will deliver a solid cold air mass from Canada. There may be a few isolated but insignificant snow flurries around on Wednesday.

Details…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Brief very light rain showers possible mostly from Boston north and west during midday. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog low elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, then diminishing to near calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with an episode of rain showers, possibly heavy, including a slight chance of thunder, during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, with a few gusts 30-50 MPH possible during the passage of the showers.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54 occurring in the morning then falling through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

High pressure slips off to the south of New England and milder weather results for the early part of this period, before a frontal boundary slips to the south again with some briefly unsettled weather, followed by seasonably cool and drier weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Thanksgiving Week Outlook: Trend continues to be for our area to be in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation. There are some shifts in guidance resulting in model divergence but not going to read into that too much at this time, hence keeping the outlook unchanged.

C-19 Chat Post – November 14 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Discussion…

We’re returned to reality, or more typical November weather. What we really need is rain still. While we dented our drought back in October, we’ve trended drier again recently and that is allowing the drought to hold on. We’ll do a little positive work today with some wet weather, but not enough. We still need a series of good precipitation events to really take bites out of it. We won’t really see that happen during the next 5 days, although we will get some unsettled weather, including today as a wave of low pressure combines with a northeast wind to produce drizzle and eventually some periodic rain. But this will be rather short-lived as a push of dry air from Canada arrives tonight. High pressure approaches via the Great Lakes Saturday with a gusty breeze and sun with passing clouds. The high moves offshore quickly by Sunday when low pressure approaches from the west, destined to track north of the region, sending its warm front then cold front through here in fairly rapid succession during Sunday and Sunday night. Only the cold front looks like it will have enough moisture to produce any wet weather, and that should also be rather short-lived. Monday, a delivery of cool air arrives on a gusty westerly wind but it will be a dry day. Tuesday, we’ll be in a chilly air mass as another disturbance comes along, and this one will produce showers of rain and/or snow (leaning toward rain showers for Metro Boston at this point). This will be a minor and fast-moving system regardless of precipitation type.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle and light rain. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57 in the morning then falling to the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

A nice shot of cold air for November 18 with sun/clouds and a few snow showers possible as high pressure approaches from the west. The high slips to the south with fair weather and milder air November 19-20 but a disturbance may bring some unsettled weather November 20 before fair and cooler weather follows that. A little uncertain on that middle-of-period disturbance possibility.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Thanksgiving Week Outlook: Trend continues to be for our area to be in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation, which is still about as far as I can go with this as it’s still far too soon for detail.

C-19 Chat Post – November 13 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Discussion…

The long stretch of November warmth comes to an end today. If you look outside from a window this morning under a cloudy November sky, it may conjure up the feeling of late autumn chill when combined with the trees that are now nearly bare, save for the dark golds & browns of oaks and other rustics that are reluctant to let go of their foliage as if begging for summer to come back and make them green again. Alas, when you step outside through your door, you’ll feel 60+ degree warmth, and even air that feels somewhat humid. A few raindrops may be falling where you are, but this is part of a signal that things are about to change. Wait until this afternoon to step outside, and you will have lost your opportunity to feel the 60s, as it will already have fallen into the 50s in most areas and be on its way down from there, into the 40s tonight, maybe even a few upper 30s in outlying colder locations, as Canadian air seeps into the region. Friday, reality sets in fully as the temperature recovery only feebly attempts 50, and falls shy in many areas. The clouds will continue to be dominant, and a wave of low pressure will produce a few periods of rain during the day. Friday night, dry but even cooler air moves in, and we see the sky clear out. This sets up a weekend that will showcase 2 different weather moods, from the cool gusty breezy and bright sun of Saturday ahead of high pressure, to a more tranquil, slightly milder, but less sunny Sunday as high pressure slips offshore, low pressure heads through the Great Lakes. At this time, it looks like the warm front from this system will pass by during the day Sunday, but with limited moisture to work with, so rain chances are minimal. Sunday night and very early Monday, its cold front will traverse the region from west to east, bringing a band of rain showers, but I have my doubts just how substantial these showers will be. Any brief warm-up we get on Sunday will be replaced by a new incoming cool air mass Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly this morning and favoring areas south of I-90, especially the South Coast. Temperatures 60-67 through mid morning, falling into the 50s midday and afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH through mid morning, becoming NW 5-15 MPH during the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mainly late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59, probably occurring morning-midday, before falling. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Upper level low pressure moves through the region November 17 and 18 with lots of clouds and a risk of rain showers November 17 then more of a sun/cloud mix with a few rain and/or snow showers November 18 as temperatures fall to slightly below normal. High pressure moves south of the region with fair weather and milder air November 19-20, but a cold front around the end of the period brings a few rain showers and a transition back to cooler again.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Heading toward Thanksgiving (November 26) the trend is to see the region in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation, neither of which can be pinpointed in any detail this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – November 12 2020