DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Even during our quiet stretches of weather there can be things to keep an eye on, and that will be the case during the coming several days for our area. But most importantly to many people who were longing for sunshine, we finally have a day today where it’s pretty much 100% sunny regionwide. The ONE small exception is a last band of ocean-effect stratocumulus clouds streaming from north to south over Cape Cod as of sunrise that will dissipate by mid morning, and I think that should be it for clouds today. There will be a bit of a breeze today making the highs around 40 feel colder, but not substantially so. The wind drops off tonight which will make it a cold one as any “heat” that the sun gave us radiates quickly back to space. Inland locations, closer to calm winds, will be coldest, while a feeble coastal breeze combined with the effect of the “warmer” ocean water will keep the temperature from falling as low there as it does inland. Monday’s breeze will become a little more active again as the sun mixes up the atmosphere, and it may be a couple degrees colder across the region than it is today, but look for plenty of sun. The exception is the southeastern portion of MA which may see an increase in ocean-effect cloud bands once again . The rest of the eastern portion of the WHW forecast area (southeastern NH, northeastern MA, and RI) can see some bands of higher clouds drift in from the northeast later in the day. Where are these clouds coming from? While we have high pressure ridging from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, supplying our fair weather, at the same time, as part of a large scale blocking pattern will be offshore low pressure. In fact, two storms out there will have an influence on our sensible weather during the next several days. The first one, southeast of Nova Scotia, will be responsible for helping turn the surface wind more to the northeast and returning the lower clouds to southeastern areas later Monday, and the outer edge clouds from the storm’s circulation will be the higher clouds that spin in from the northeast. That first area will start to drift away to the east, but while all this is going on, another storm passing very far to our south (through the US Southeast and Florida) will move into the western Atlantic and we’ll end up with elongated low pressure well to our southeast with high pressure to our north and northwest. That will maintain a more northeasterly air flow for our region into midweek, during Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in more cloudiness again favoring southeastern MA and into RI. At any point from Monday evening through Wednesday, we can see bands of ocean-effect snow showers impacting mainly areas south of Boston. If/when this occurs, we’ll have to watch for localized quick but small snowfall accumulations that can make for temporarily slippery travel conditions. Once we get to Thursday, the blocking weakens and shifts slightly so that a more eastward movement of large scale features occurs. This will put a high pressure area over our region with light winds and a clearer sky. After a cold morning Thursday, we’ll see a nice temperature rebound and a milder afternoon. So, despite all the activity to keep an eye on, there’s still some nice mid winter weather to be had in our region in the days ahead…

TODAY: Early clouds Cape Cod, otherwise sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-18 inland, 19-24 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH inland, up to 10 MPH coast.

MONDAY: Sunny through midday. Lower clouds return to southeastern MA by later in the day with a few higher clouds appearing elsewhere later too. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA with possible snow showers. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows 18-25, coldest inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential coastal snow showers favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod. Highs 31-38. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible in some coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

A more west to east movement of weather systems during this period. Initially, high pressure hangs on with fair weather to start February 9, but a trough / low pressure moving into the Great Lakes eventually to southeastern Canada brings a warm front through the region late that day with a chance of rain and higher elevation snow at night. This system’s cold front swings through with a chance of rain showers but mild air initially on February 10 before slightly colder air arrives to finish the weekend February 11 with dry weather. Watching for a storm system to bring the chance of rain/mix/snow to the region February 12 into February 13, but this far in advance there’s no way to provide any details.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A more active pattern sends 1 or 2 potential storm systems our way at mid month. Variable temperatures during the period – no major extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

A blocking pattern helps us return to brighter weather this weekend. Caveat: The return to sun will be delayed along the coast south of Boston as a north northeast wind drives a deck of clouds onshore for a good part of the day today – even potentially producing a few snow showers from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod. It won’t stay 100% sunny elsewhere though as there are some higher level cloud patches that will be moving southward in the upper flow over the region. There will be enough of a wind shift to north northwest later in the day though to drive the lower cloud deck to sea. As the weekend goes along, high pressure at the surface extending from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada provides us with dry weather. Meanwhile, the first of two large ocean storms spins well to our southeast and east this weekend. The pattern provides generally sunny weather for the entire region both Sunday and Monday. During the weekend, as part of the large scale blocking pattern in place, a storm will travel eastward through the US Southeast. This low will emerge off the Atlantic Coast and spin in the waters to our south during the first half of next week. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the circulation between it and the high pressure area to our north will enhance a northeast wind flow and drive more clouds back into coastal areas, especially southeastern MA and RI by Tuesday and Wednesday. These areas are also most likely to see some ocean effect snow showers that may develop and move into the region.

TODAY: A cloud canopy lingers MA South Shore through Cape Cod / Islands where a few snow showers are possible before some later-day clearing. Elsewhere, more sunshine but intervals of high and middle clouds as well. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH, especially coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential coastal snow showers favoring Cape Cod. Highs 31-38. Lows 21-28. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Blocking eases and shifts enough to allow a more west to east flow to evolve. High pressure maintains control of our weather with dry conditions and a moderating trend later in the week. From later on February 9 into February 10 a trough from the west will swing through with the potential for some rain/snow shower activity and by the end of the period we may have impact from another low pressure area as well as the subtropical jet stream will become more active across the country in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A more active pattern sends 1 or 2 potential storm systems our way at mid month. Variable temperatures during the period – no major extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

It’s cloudy ….. again. (If you get the reference, give yourself a high-five). Happy Groundhog Day everybody. We’ve been living the movie in our own way lately, waking up day after day to a blanket of clouds as we have had nothing to mix up the atmosphere this week – a very stagnant pattern. However, things start to change today, but you’ll need some patience still. First, a cold front slides through the region from north to south and clouds continue to dominate. They may break at times for a touch of sun here and there as we go through the day, but any of those breaks will be limited. A wave of low pressure developing on the front as it pushes southward will slide eastward along it and clip Outer Cape Cod with a little rain early today, and behind this front some instability will create a few rain and snow showers in the region today into this evening. These will have limited impact, but wet ground left behind by them can freeze up on untreated surfaces tonight, so keep that in mind if you have plans to be out at all. Improvement will be a little bit slow to take place, especially in eastern areas, on Saturday, as we continue to see some additional clouds on a north northeast wind, especially along the coast and over Cape Cod where a few snow showers may occur. Otherwise, do expect to see more sun to the west, and eventually more to the east, as we move through the day Saturday. Sunday looks like the first fully sunny day in quite some time, with a seasonable chill that nobody will care about – just because it’s sunny finally! Fair weather will also continue into early next week, but by Tuesday, there may be an exception. A blocking pattern is evolving and this will put high pressure over the northeastern US and southeastern Canada, and force a large low pressure area moving through the Southeast off into the Atlantic well south of New England early next week. This system will have a large circulation, and by Tuesday, the combination of this system and the high to the north will send a northeasterly air flow into our region, potentially resulting in some ocean-effect snow showers in eastern areas, favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod .. something to watch for now as it’s still several days away.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain Cape Cod area. Scattered rain/snow showers anywhere late morning on. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds linger. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Most clouds near the coast with Cape Cod snow shower chances. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential coastal snow showers favoring Cape Cod. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

A blocking pattern will be in place keeping high pressure to our west and north while a large ocean storm spins to our southeast. A north to northeast air flow here will keep it chilly. Enough northeasterly component may induce ocean effect snow showers any day from February 7 to 8, favoring Cape Cod and MA South Shore. A weakening of the blocking later in the period allows more eastward movement of systems and brings potential unsettled weather to our region by February 10 or 11.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Blocking weakens and we see 1 or 2 storm chances by mid February. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

We start the second month of 2024 much the way we ended the first one: grey. Any breaks in the stubborn cloud cover that appeared in southern NH and northeastern MA overnight quickly fill back in today and even above that some mid level cloud cover is moving in ahead of an approaching warm front. You’ll hardly notice any impact from that warm front in terms of precipitation (none) and temperature (modest rise at best today). Tonight, a cold front swings through the region, also largely devoid of precipitation – only the slightest chance of a rain or snow shower with its passage north to south. During Friday, this front will temporarily slow down near the South Coast as a ripple of low pressure moves along it. This will induce a shield of precipitation along the South Coast for a few to several hours in the morning to midday hours. This looks like it will fall mostly as rain, but marginal temperatures can allow some mix or a brief turn to snow in some areas before the area exits with the departure of the low pressure wave. Unfortunately, sun seekers will need another day of patience as clearing looks like it will be delayed until after sunset on Friday. If anybody gets lucky enough to see some breaks in the cloud cover and a hint of brighter sky at least, it will be north and northwest of Boston toward the end of the day. Finally, there’s better news for the weekend and Monday as a high pressure area building into the Great Lakes will send a drier northerly breeze into our region, and while it will be seasonably chilly, we’ll have 3 days of sunshine! And after a long break without a fully sunny day, you’re going to notice that the brightness of the day begins a little earlier in the morning and lasts a little later in the late afternoon with sun now setting after 5:00 p.m.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A light rain or snow shower possible from north to south. Lows 30-37. Wind SW shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possibly mixed with snow near the South Coast morning to midday. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 mph.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

A blocking pattern will be in place keeping high pressure to our west and north while a large ocean storm spins to our southeast. A north to northeast air flow here will keep it chilly. Enough northeasterly component may induce ocean effect snow showers any day from February 6 to 8, favoring Cape Cod and MA South Shore, but too soon to pinpoint how high the chance is and what the result would be. Just something to keep in mind.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Blocking weakens and we see 1 or 2 storm chances by mid February. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

On this final day of January, we will experience a little change from the previous 2 days. A slightly stronger pressure gradient initiates a more active air flow, this time from the southwest, and this should help mix the air and help create some fairly substantial breaks in the cloud cover, with partial sun, maybe even a couple longer periods of sunshine – a respite from the several days dominated by a grey sky. But don’t get too used to it, because a trough dropping southeastward out of Canada is set to bring lots of clouds again Thursday into Friday as we begin the month of February. A slightly milder Thursday can be expected before a little colder air arrives on Friday. This trough accompanied by a surface low pressure system will drag a warm front through the region on Thursday followed by a Friday cold front. Some rain and snow showers will accompany the passage of this weather system, but don’t expect any significant impact. The first weekend of February, while being seasonably cold, will feature fair weather as a blocking pattern sets up and places high pressure over the region.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of afternoon rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible evening, snow showers possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A blocking pattern will keep our region chilly and mainly fair with a large storm in the southeastern US moving out into the western Atlantic. The circulation between this system and high pressure to the north turns the wind northeast and this may be enough to create some ocean effect snow showers in coastal areas during the February 5-7 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Blocking weakens and we see 1 or 2 storm chances heading into mid February.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

A quieter interlude in our weather, but not a whole lot of sun to speak of the next few days. An inversion today will keep the sky generally cloudy with limited breaks in the clouds that may allow a glimpse of sun in a few locations. There is also a slight onshore component to the wind bringing a little bit of frozen precipitation of the very light variety to the region this morning. In a few locations this is actually falling not as frozen precipitation but freezing drizzle that is causing a little slickness on untreated surfaces. This breaks up a bit more for partial sun at times on Wednesday. A low pressure trough drops out of Canada and brings a few rain showers later Thursday as it turns milder, then a few snow showers early Friday as it turns colder again. Finally, a sunnier Saturday is likely as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy snow grains or freezing drizzle this morning. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 14-21. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of afternoon rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible evening, snow showers possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Fair, seasonably cold February 4-5. Looking at potential snow or snow showers in the February 6-7 time frame as a low pressure trough moves through the region before fair weather returns to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Next window of opportunity for winter precipitation comes mid to late period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

The “lazy” storm winds down today. This system was an under-performing event that had its potential thwarted by lack of cold air and lack of organization. Today, there will be some lingering aspects, such as ocean-effect snow showers from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod with minor snow accumulation, a gusty breeze across the region, and falling temperatures, so it actually feels like the middle portion of winter. Cold air becomes established and hangs around for the final 2 days of January as well on Tuesday and Wednesday, with fair weather, but some clouds at times, as weak high pressure takes control of the weather. This high drifts to the east and south by Thursday with a slight temperature moderation. Upper level low pressure drops southeastward from Canada into the US Northeast late Thursday and Friday with some unsettled weather and a trend back to colder air by the very end of the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers southeastern MA likely through midday with accumulations of up to 1 inch. Chance of flurries elsewhere. Highs 32-39 early, then falling gradually into the 20s from north to south. Wind NE to N 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partial clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible mix/snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Fair, seasonably cold for the February 3-4 weekend as well as February 5. Looking at potential snow or snow showers in the February 6-7 time frame as a low pressure trough moves through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Next window of opportunity for winter precipitation comes mid to late period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

A storm will impact our region today into Monday with a variety of precipitation, the type dependent on the precise temperature profile of the atmosphere at any given location. The basic idea remains the same as discussed yesterday. A shield of precipitation overspreading the region from south to north is ongoing and will be completed by midday. Higher elevation areas further west and north see snow longer than anybody else from the initial batch, and where it starts as a mix or rain it can flip to snow when it comes down heavier, due to the dynamic cooling process. Accumulations can be variable, not so regionally uniform, during the initial phase of this event. Low pressure does track in a place that typically would bring fairly widespread snowfall regionwide, but as mentioned yesterday, the lack of cold in place ahead of the system makes that more difficult, and not only does the storm manufacture cold during its occurrence for snow to occur, but it’s during the final hours of the storm, after a mid-storm lull due to mid level drying, that cold air moves in from the north and northwest, flipping the precipitation to snow for everyone from northwest to southeast. For areas that saw mix/rain for many hours during the passage of the system, this would be when most of the snow accumulation occurs. The storm breakdown that I posted yesterday, with a couple tweaks, is repeated next…

Precipitation arrival time / type: Ongoing as rain (some mix) South Coast, spreading north and northeast through all of the region by midday as rain with pockets of mix/snow, except mostly snow in areas north of Route 2 and west of I-95, with bursts of snow further east and south with any moderate (heavy enough) precipitation. This phase of the storm’s precipitation continues through dusk. Mid level dry air will work northward during Sunday evening, creating a taper off for a few hours in the precipitation, especially south of I-90. Area that were raining continue to see lighter rain/drizzle, and some areas that were seeing mix/snow probably go over to a period of lighter rain for a while. The higher terrain of interior southern NH and MA from the I-495 belt westward stay cold enough for snow, and also are less affected by the dry slot, if at all. Beyond this, the overnight hours to early or mid morning Monday will be when the greatest amount of cold air is pulled into the system from the north, along with additional dynamic cooling from above. This is when snow will overtake the entire region from northwest to southeast in mix/rain areas, including but lastly Cape Cod, and there will be a temporarily increase in the intensity of precipitation in response to intensifying surface low pressure. This is when most of the snow accumulation will take place east of I-95 and south of I-90. Snow ends by late morning or midday Monday from northwest to southeast as low pressure begins to pull away.

Total snowfall: Keep in mind that this is for the entire event, and depending on precipitation type, the total snowfall will not be the amount of snow on the ground at any given location. Even in areas that stay all snow to the northwest have a wet snow for a good part of the storm, and compacting will occur there before it flips to a lower water content snowfall later in the storm. Looking for up to 1 inch Outer Cape Cod / Islands and immediate South Coast of MA/RI and eastern CT, 1-3 inches remainder of Cape Cod and MA South Shore to Boston / Providence through interior southeastern CT, 3-6 inches in the majority of the I-95 corridor and northern RI to northeastern CT and lower elevations of south central MA as well as the NH Seacoast, and 6-10 inches interior southern NH and the western Merrimack Valley west and southwest through central MA. Highest snowfall occurs in higher elevations.

Flooding: No major issues, both rivers and coastal areas.

Wind: Top gusts may reach 50 MPH across Cape Cod early hours of Monday from the northeast. No major wind issues for the remainder of the region.

Power outages: Moderate risk of power outages in areas where heaviest snowfall occurs due to the higher water content nature of the snowfall for much of the storm. Lower risk of wind-related power outages Cape Cod.

Post-storm, clearing arrives Monday night and high pressure moves in with fair and chilly weather through the middle of the coming week. A trough dropping out of Canada through the Great Lakes into the Northeast may bring snow showers to the region by later Thursday.

TODAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow develops southwest to northeast by midday and continues afternoon with greatest chance of snow interior higher elevations, but also periods of alternating precipitation type closer to the I-95 belt while mostly rain falls in the coastal areas especially south. Highs 35-42 by midday, then slowly but unevenly falling temperatures. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas by late-day.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation of varying intensity may stop at times especially south of I-90 where more rain than snow is likely, and will be steadiest I-90 north where more snow is likely, with more of transition to snow working southeastward overnight when precipitation is steadier. Temperatures slowly falling to 28-35 by dawn coldest northwest, mildest coastal plain. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod where gusts 40-50 MPH are possible.

MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely in the morning. Snow ending with breaking clouds afternoon. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas through midday.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late day snow showers. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Additional snow showers possible with a passing trough on February 2. Generally fair weather expected during the February 3-5 time frame. Another storm threatens the region by the end of the period. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Storm potentials somewhere early period and again at the end of the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

Down the home stretch of the first month of 2024 we go, and the pattern remains active in this El Nino winter. So far, the great majority of the winter has seen the polar jet stream well to the north of our region. It’s dipped southward plenty in other parts of the hemisphere, but hasn’t seemed to want to visit the northeastern US. There are changes ahead in that, but not enough to help put too much cold in place for our next upcoming storm. Before we get there, we have a break today between yesterday’s morning event and the Sunday-Monday event. But lots of low level moisture is hanging out with us and keeping it overcast and still on the damp side. But a weak frontal boundary coming down from the north will introduce drier air as we go through the day, and while clouds may break, I’m not looking for complete clearing. Any partial clearing we do get would be erased tonight as clouds from the next low pressure system move into the region. And then comes the next storm. Low pressure will pass south of New England between late Sunday and early to midday Monday, its track is what would be a typically good spot for a solid snowstorm through the region in late January. However, the aforementioned missing cold air mass makes that more difficult. Cold air will become involved though, both advecting in from the north and also from above through the “dynamic cooling” process. It’s the timing of these that will determine rain to snow changeover, how much sleet may accompany the transition, and in the end, what the final snowfall totals are across the region. My thought process on that hasn’t changed that much from yesterday. Snow accumulation ranges will be broad enough to account for the uncertainty, but tight enough so that you should at least have a good idea of what ballpark you’ll be in for snowfall. The following is a general breakdown of the storm…

Precipitation arrival time / type: Shield of precipitation enters via the CT/RI coast pre-dawn Sunday as rain, then overspreads the region southwest to northeast during the morning so that by noon the leading edge is arriving around the NH Seacoast. Anywhere away from the South Coast, but most especially in higher elevations, precipitation can start as mixed rain/snow or even just wet snow as temperatures will straddle the rain/snow production borderline. If dew points are low enough, a brief early-on period of dynamic can take place for earlier snowfall, at least temporarily. During Sunday afternoon and early evening the warm advection portion of the precipitation will take place, a moderate burst, which will fall as mainly rain for the South Coast, and Cape Cod to the MA South Shore, but mixed rain/snow to all snow at times in the I-95 corridor, and mix to mostly snow across interior southern NH through the Merrimack Valley and central MA. Mid level dry air will work northward later Sunday evening, creating a taper off for a few hours in the precipitation, especially south of I-90. Area that were raining continue to see lighter rain/drizzle, and some areas that were seeing mix/snow probably go over to a period of lighter rain for a while. The higher terrain of interior southern NH and MA from the I-495 belt westward stay cold enough for snow, and also are less affected by the dry slot, if at all. Beyond this, the overnight hours to early or mid morning Monday will be when the greatest amount of cold air is pulled into the system from the north, along with additional dynamic cooling from above. This is when snow will overtake the entire region from northwest to southeast in mix/rain areas, including but lastly Cape Cod, and there will be a temporarily increase in the intensity of precipitation in response to intensifying surface low pressure. This is when most of the snow accumulation will take place east of I-95 and south of I-90. Snow ends by late morning or midday Monday from northwest to southeast as low pressure begins to pull away.

Total snowfall: Keep in mind that this is for the entire event, and depending on precipitation type, the total snowfall will not be the amount of snow on the ground at any given location. Even in areas that stay all snow to the northwest have a wet snow for a good part of the storm, and compacting will occur there before it flips to a lower water content snowfall later in the storm. Looking for up to 1 inch Outer Cape Cod / Islands and immediate South Coast of MA/RI and eastern CT, 1-3 inches remainder of Cape Cod and Plymouth MA area to Providence RI area through interior southeastern CT, 3-6 inches in the majority of the I-95 corridor including Boston and northern RI to northeastern CT and lower elevations of south central MA as well as the NH Seacoast, and 6-10 inches interior southern NH and the western Merrimack Valley west and southwest through central MA. Highest snowfall occurs in higher elevations.

Flooding: No major issues, both rivers and coastal areas.

Wind: Top gusts may reach 50 MPH across Cape Cod early hours of Monday from the northeast. No major wind issues for the remainder of the region.

Power outages: Moderate risk of power outages in areas where heaviest snowfall occurs due to the higher water content nature of the snowfall for much of the storm. Lower risk of wind-related power outages Cape Cod.

Post-storm, we start to see clearing later Monday and then dry and seasonably cold weather is ours to finish off the month as high pressure moves in Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with patchy drizzle and areas of fog. Mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow develops southwest to northeast by midday and continues afternoon with greatest chance of snow interior higher elevations, but also periods of alternating precipitation type closer to the I-95 belt while mostly rain falls in the coastal areas especially south. Highs 37-44 by midday, then slowly but unevenly falling temperatures. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas by late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation of varying intensity may stop at times especially south of I-90 where more rain than snow is likely, and will be steadiest I-90 north where more snow is likely, with more of transition to snow working southeastward overnight when precipitation is steadier. Lows 25-32 by dawn. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod where gusts 40-50 MPH are possible.

MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely in the morning. Snow ending with breaking clouds afternoon. Temperatures steady 25-32. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas through midday.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Trough drops down from Canada with snow shower chances February 1-2. Dry weather follows. Temperatures variable but averaging near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Storm potential somewhere in the early to middle portion of this period. Fair weather follows. Temperatures near normal for the period though somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

As low pressure approaches and passes through the region it will do a gelatin-wobble along a boundary near the South Coast, keeping us cool and damp. The steadiest rain falls this morning then tapers to patchy drizzle from midday on. We dry out somewhat tonight and for a good part of Saturday, but a little trough dropping into the region on Saturday can still trigger a few showers of rain, with some mix/snow showers north of Route 2 where temperatures will be marginal to support some frozen precipitation. That colder air will drain slowly southward through Sunday as the next low pressure area approaches. There’s a little uncertainty as to when its precipitation shield overspreads the region. The earlier Sunday this occurs, the more likely it starts as rain, and the later it occurs, the more likely it starts as rain to the south but a mix of rain and snow to the north. Regardless, as this final low in the series travels to our south, it’ll pull in additional cold and evolve into a snow event Sunday night into Monday, before it moves away. A general light to moderate snowfall is expected, with exact amounts depending on some details yet to be worked out, forecast-wise. But that process will be ongoing, which I can share in comments and update in more detail on tomorrow’s blog post. But for now, an early call is that 3 or more inches of snowfall can be expected across much of the WHW forecast area from that system. Later Monday and Tuesday will feature drier, cold weather.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain morning, patchy drizzle afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 37-44. Wind NE-E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to freezing or below. Wind NE-N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower of rain except rain or snow north of Route 2. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix arrives in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow to the north, rain changing to snow to the south. Temperatures fall to 20s. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely in the morning. Snow ending with breaking clouds afternoon. Temperatures remain in 20s. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Below normal temperatures for a good portion of this period, moderating toward the end of next week. Dry to start. Watch January 31 through February 2 for possible snow or snow showers, then a return to fair weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Fair start and finish, winter storm potential mid period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

We’re in the midst of a parade of low pressure areas moving along the boundary between mild air to the south and Canadian cold to the north. It’s warm enough that the event just ending and the next one coming late tonight into Friday will fall as rain in the area. The advertised break still comes on Saturday, but may do so with little or no sun while clouds hang tough. The next storm approaches during Sunday and the time frame for this one is Sunday afternoon / evening into Monday. This one will also arrive as colder air arrives from Canada, so it looks like a rain/mix to snow set up, and the exact details of timing of cold air’s arrival and how much precipitation is still to occur will determine the eventual snow amounts. For now, an early call is that a substantial snowfall is possible for parts of the region during that time period.

TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog this morning. Areas of rain early morning. Highs 38-45 north, 45-52 south. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 36-43 north, 43-50 south. Wind variable under 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain ends in the morning. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 36-43 north, 43-50 south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to freezing or below. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix arrives in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix changing to snow. Temperatures fall to 20s. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Below normal temperatures for a good portion of this period, moderating toward the end of next week. Dry to start. Watch January 31 / February 1 for possible snow or snow showers, then a return to fair weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Fair early period, another storm potential mid to late period. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)

Not much change from yesterday’s write-up. This morning, most areas are coated in a fresh snowfall that ranges from a thick coating to a couple inches. During the day today, a frontal boundary struggles to get into the region, staying to the south enough that the cold air holds on for most of the day. Because spotty precipitation still has to move through the region, and it’s warming aloft, we have to watch for pockets of freezing rain showers mainly north of I-90 and especially the Route 2 Corridor northward. Some areas will also be cold enough for additional snow showers to occur, but I’m not expecting any additional accumulation. The frontal boundary does edge its way northward and ripple around the area for the upcoming two days through Friday while 2 more areas of low pressure move through the region. These will be mainly rain producers, focused on tonight and Thursday morning, and Thursday evening to Friday morning for steadiest rainfall. Neither of these will be prolific rain producers, so renewed flooding on rivers is not expected. Our active pattern continues beyond that, and after a break in the action Saturday, we get another storm system moving into and through the region Sunday and Sunday night, with a mix of precipitation trending to snowfall as colder air takes over from the north. Too soon to pinpoint snowfall potential by numbers, but many areas have a decent shot of picking up a bigger snowfall than the one we just had…

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty snow/ice north, rain/drizzle south, tapering off later. Highs 32-39 southern NH / northern MA, 40-47 southern MA / RI / eastern CT. Wind NE-E to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely except some freezing rain in pockets Merrimack Valley north and west evening. Temperatures generally steady 31-38 Merrimack Valley north and west, 38-45 elsewhere, but should rise slightly overnight. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain early in the day. Highs 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere, warmest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere, warmest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain ends in the morning. Temperatures remain steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere, warmest South Coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to 30-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow trending to mostly snow. Highs 32-39. Highs NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Dry, seasonably colder January 29-31. Storm potential to start February.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Fair early period, another storm potential mid to late period. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

We continue to be in an active weather pattern with the storm train getting ready to roll once again. While none of the upcoming few events are powerful, they all produce precipitation for our region. Thankfully, the total precipitation in this 5-day period will be modest, as we’re certainly not in need of it due to recent bigger events and rivers just recovering from flooding. We expect train car #1 to come by this evening in the form of mostly snow, a light event, as a warm front approaches the region, propelled weakly by an area of low pressure passing to our south. This will taper off as a light mix early Wednesday. The next 2 cars of the train (aka low pressure areas) come along Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. Both of these will produce rain for the region, but some of that rain may be freezing rain over interior locations from the Merrimack Valley to southern NH Wednesday night – something to watch closely. We dry out later Friday, and catch a break Saturday which will be fair and relatively mild with a weak area of high pressure moving in to start the weekend.

TODAY: Partial sunshine this morning for some locations, otherwise cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives evening, continues overnight before tapering off to a light mix of snow/ice/rain. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, least near the coast, most north and west of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Early light snow/mix/rain possible. Late-day rain likely but may fall as freezing rain in pockets from the Merrimack Valley north and west. Highs 32-39 southern NH / northern MA, 40-47 southern MA / RI / eastern CT. Wind NE-E to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely except some freezing rain in pockets Merrimack Valley north and west. Temperatures generally steady 31-38 Merrimack Valley north and west, 38-45 elsewhere. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain early in the day. Highs 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain ends in the morning. Temperatures remain steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to 30-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Storm potential January 28-29 may start as rain/mix then change to mix/snow. Mostly dry weather follows January 30-31. Another snow chance may appear for February 1. Temperatures variable, near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Fair weather early in the period, another winter storm threat mid or late period. Temperatures variable but trend colder.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

High pressure drifts to our south today, with fair weather and a temperature moderation putting many areas above freezing for highs. A cold front will drop down from the north Tuesday, but this front doesn’t deliver air as cold as the last bout we went through. It does help set up a period of snow for much of the region Tuesday night as a disturbance ripples along the frontal boundary from west to east. This frontal boundary will be hanging around our region then from mid to late week with more unsettled weather. Additional areas of low pressure bring rain chances later Wednesday into Thursday, and again later Thursday into Friday, based on current timing. There’s still some question as to how much warming will take place at the surface, especially north of the I-90 belt as it is often hard to dislodge chilly air, especially when there is still snow on the ground. Keeping this in mind, as these rain systems come through, we need to keep a close eye on surface temperatures for any icing issues. Right now, I don’t think it will become a significant or widespread problem, but we will see for certain as we go through the week, so be sure to check updates…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow, except some mix South Coast. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, least near the South Coast, most north of I-90. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Early light snow/mix/rain possible. Late-day rain likely. Highs 33-40 southern NH / northern MA, 40-47 southern MA / RI / eastern CT. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Pockets of freezing rain may occur mainly interior areas well northwest of Boston. Temperatures nearly steady 32-39 northern valley areas, 40-47 many areas, but rising to 47-54 coastal plain on Friday. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

Fair, mild January 27. Watch for a possible storm of rain/mix/snow January 28, but may pass to south. Watch for a disturbance to bring snow or snow showers January 30 or 31 as we trend colder to end the month.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

One or two winter precipitation threats in the first several days of February. Temperatures variable but trend colder.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

A little bonus snowfall for some areas is now history as a trough moving through the region over-produced, with expected flurries / snow showers becoming a general snowfall for a few hours, with minor accumulations. Now we have a bright, breezy, and cold Sunday with high pressure in control. This high will shift to the south Monday with a temperature moderation and continued fair weather. A stronger high pressure area settling across eastern Canada on Tuesday will send a frontal boundary southward through our region, returning chilly air to the region by late in the day. At the same time, an area of moisture will approach from the west, and as the frontal boundary hangs around just to the south and attempts to push back to the north, we can expect a period of snow and possible ice Tuesday night. This should taper off with just some lingering liquid precipitation of the light variety on Wednesday. There may be a significant temperature contrast across the region Wednesday depending on the position of the frontal boundary that came through the day before, as it makes an attempt to drift back north as a warm front, but is met with resistance from cold air to the north.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely, some accumulation, except mix/ice/rain potential I-90 south. Lows 23-30. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty rain/ice possible. Highs 32-39 north, 40-47 south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY: Cloudy. Additional episodes of rain/ice possible. Temperatures may remain steady. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

Additional areas of low pressure bringing opportunities for rain/ice/snow to the region for the first few days of this period before a drying trend. Temperatures variable, averaging slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Another winter weather threat early to mid period. Temperatures trend colder.