DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

High pressure drifts to our south today, with fair weather and a temperature moderation putting many areas above freezing for highs. A cold front will drop down from the north Tuesday, but this front doesn’t deliver air as cold as the last bout we went through. It does help set up a period of snow for much of the region Tuesday night as a disturbance ripples along the frontal boundary from west to east. This frontal boundary will be hanging around our region then from mid to late week with more unsettled weather. Additional areas of low pressure bring rain chances later Wednesday into Thursday, and again later Thursday into Friday, based on current timing. There’s still some question as to how much warming will take place at the surface, especially north of the I-90 belt as it is often hard to dislodge chilly air, especially when there is still snow on the ground. Keeping this in mind, as these rain systems come through, we need to keep a close eye on surface temperatures for any icing issues. Right now, I don’t think it will become a significant or widespread problem, but we will see for certain as we go through the week, so be sure to check updates…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow, except some mix South Coast. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches, least near the South Coast, most north of I-90. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Early light snow/mix/rain possible. Late-day rain likely. Highs 33-40 southern NH / northern MA, 40-47 southern MA / RI / eastern CT. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Pockets of freezing rain may occur mainly interior areas well northwest of Boston. Temperatures nearly steady 32-39 northern valley areas, 40-47 many areas, but rising to 47-54 coastal plain on Friday. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

Fair, mild January 27. Watch for a possible storm of rain/mix/snow January 28, but may pass to south. Watch for a disturbance to bring snow or snow showers January 30 or 31 as we trend colder to end the month.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

One or two winter precipitation threats in the first several days of February. Temperatures variable but trend colder.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

A little bonus snowfall for some areas is now history as a trough moving through the region over-produced, with expected flurries / snow showers becoming a general snowfall for a few hours, with minor accumulations. Now we have a bright, breezy, and cold Sunday with high pressure in control. This high will shift to the south Monday with a temperature moderation and continued fair weather. A stronger high pressure area settling across eastern Canada on Tuesday will send a frontal boundary southward through our region, returning chilly air to the region by late in the day. At the same time, an area of moisture will approach from the west, and as the frontal boundary hangs around just to the south and attempts to push back to the north, we can expect a period of snow and possible ice Tuesday night. This should taper off with just some lingering liquid precipitation of the light variety on Wednesday. There may be a significant temperature contrast across the region Wednesday depending on the position of the frontal boundary that came through the day before, as it makes an attempt to drift back north as a warm front, but is met with resistance from cold air to the north.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely, some accumulation, except mix/ice/rain potential I-90 south. Lows 23-30. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty rain/ice possible. Highs 32-39 north, 40-47 south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY: Cloudy. Additional episodes of rain/ice possible. Temperatures may remain steady. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

Additional areas of low pressure bringing opportunities for rain/ice/snow to the region for the first few days of this period before a drying trend. Temperatures variable, averaging slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Another winter weather threat early to mid period. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A “used” Arctic airmass gives us a cold weekend. This air is indirect in its delivery, having modified after freezing areas to our west over the last several days, so we do not get the brunt of that, but a lesser version. Nevertheless, it’ll be our coldest daytime of the season so far today, with clouds dominant as a weak trough of low pressure crosses the region. A weak surface boundary will help wring out some snow showers this afternoon and evening that can coat the ground easily if they come down heavy enough or long enough. A gusty breeze will contribute to a stinging wind chill. Sunday, we see more sun and a very slight temperature moderation as a weak ridge of high pressure moves into the region. High pressure sinks to the south of our region Monday allowing temperatures to return to seasonable, or even a slight bit above normal with continued fair weather. This “milder” air holds into Tuesday, but don’t expect it to be a warm day. This is only a slightly warmer than normal air mass flowing over an icy snow cover in much of the region and is comparable to moving from your freezer to your refrigerator. And even the modest warm-up will be somewhat short-lived. Not that we’re going back to the levels of this weekend, but cold high pressure in eastern Canada will send a front down from the north later Tuesday, with colder air arriving. At the same time, Pacific moisture, having made a cross-country trek, will arrive Tuesday night, just in time to wring out some snow across the region. The boundary that moved through late Tuesday does try to come back as a warm front by Wednesday, but may have difficulty doing so. For now I’d lean toward a cloud-dominated, near to above normal temperature day Wednesday, with the potential for a fairly wide temperature contrast from north to south. However, there are a few more days to work out the intricate details there.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day snow showers. Highs 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 10.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early with lingering snow showers mainly I-95 & I-90 regions east and south. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 6-13. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, then diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely. Lows 23-30. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance mix/rain at night. Highs 35-42 north, 43-50 south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

One more push of mild air combined with a disturbance brings a rain chance to the region to start the period, but if cold air remains locked in at the surface, some icy conditions cannot be ruled out in some areas to the north. Colder air wins out and look for a potential weekend (January 27-28) winter weather event, followed by a drier, colder end to the period, based on current expected timing in the medium range.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Another winter weather threat around mid period. Temperatures variable, probably slightly above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

A storm passing by to our south today keeps us overcast and tries to throw its shield of snow across the region, but dry air wins to keep it minimal, and resultant accumulation minimal as well. The exception will be the MA South Shore and Cape Cod which gets higher amounts due to ocean enhancement – a result of a cold north northeast wind off the relatively warm Atlantic waters. This comes to an end tonight and the coldest air of the season is ours for the weekend. Saturday will feature lots of clouds, and Sunday lots of sun. A gusty breeze will make it feel even colder both days. In addition, a weak disturbance coming through Saturday evening will bring the chance of a few light snow showers and only a tiny risk of a slightly heavier one. High pressure shifts to the south and allows for a temperature moderation with fair weather Monday. But Tuesday, a cold front drops down from the north, and while it may be “mild” to start, it turns colder later, and at the same time moisture from the west will start to increase the cloud cover. Snow may arrive as warmer air aloft makes an approach by late Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow midday on especially I-95 east and I-90 south, but accumulations generally under 1 inch except 1-3 inches with locally heavier from MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Highs 24-31. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Snow lingers early with small additional accumulation possible MA South Shore / Cape Cod, otherwise cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill as low as 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 6-13. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 33-40 by midday, then turning colder. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

A battle-zone between mild to the south and Canadian cold, adding in moisture from a Pacific jet stream, produces unsettled weather through mid period. Temperature and precipitation details to be determined. Fair, cold weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Indication is for seasonable cold as the average but somewhat variable temperatures with 1 or 2 additional systems potentially bringing precipitation to the region.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

A disturbance will bring lots of clouds and a touch of light snow later today. A stronger storm moving just south of the region will be just far enough away to spare us a larger snowfall, but close enough for a light to moderate snowfall on Friday and Friday night. The moderate amounts should be confined to the MA South Shore / Cape Cod regions due to ocean enhancement. The coldest weather of the winter so far arrives Saturday, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers, but we’re looking at a mainly dry and cold weekend overall. Fair weather continues with a temperature moderation for Monday.

TODAY: Becoming cloudy. Light snow in the afternoon and early evening, favoring areas along and south of I-90, with a dusting to 1/2 inch. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Afternoon snow, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow in the evening, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Accumulation 1-3 inches except under 1 inch Merrimack Valley MA northward and 3-6 inches Plymouth County MA to Cape Cod. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers evening. Clear overnight. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Milder weather during this period with temperatures averaging near to above normal but no major warm-up indicated. Also looks like a fairly unsettled stretch of weather quite possible, starting on January 24. More detail to come in future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Trend back to colder, additional storminess possible including snow chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

Our weather today is controlled by large weather systems – a big low in eastern Canada, and a big high pressure area in the south central US. Between these two features we have a west northwest air flow of cold air with fair weather. However, while weather itself does not present a hazard today, other than making you chilly if you’re outside in the gusty breeze, the real hazard lies underfoot, where any untreated wet/slushy surfaces from yesterday have frozen solid and will remain frozen through today, tonight, and tomorrow as well if not impacted by sun’s heat or treated by someone. Use caution if walking and/or driving over any of these surfaces – and there are many! Back to weather, it’s a quiet but cold one tonight. My Thursday forecast previously read “partly sunny” in response to clouds from a weak disturbance, but it’s become apparent that this disturbance carries enough with it to produce an overcast sky and a period of light snowfall for the region, especially in the I-90 corridor southward, Thursday afternoon and evening. Accumulations from this will be minor, on the order of a dusting to 1/2 inch, but any light accumulation on already icy surfaces is hazardous, and the snow can cover up the ice to make it unseen. So this little system does its part to continue the walking/driving hazard on untreated surfaces. Further, we have another storm to contend with late in the week – Friday afternoon and evening for the most part. The upper air pattern expected doesn’t support a full-on hit of a significant winter storm, but rather a glancing blow of a strong storm evolving just too far offshore to dump maximum snowfall on the region. So for now I expect a light snowfall favoring areas from the I-90 and I-95 belts south and east. This will be followed by a very cold start to the weekend on Saturday. We’ll have to watch for a few flurries or isolated snow squalls as the cold air comes into the region with a little instability from Friday night through Saturday too. I’ll take a closer look at that possibility as we go through the week. Sunday’s weather will be fair and cold with high pressure in control.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. High clouds arrive overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Light snow in the afternoon and early evening, favoring areas along and south of I-90, with a dusting to 1/2 inch. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing evening. Clouds fill back in overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Afternoon snow, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow in the evening, especially I-90 south and I-95 east. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers evening. Clear overnight. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

“January thaw” with milder weather – temperatures near to mostly above normal. After a fair weather beginning, unsettled weather becomes more likely mid to late period, favoring snow/mix at first, then mix/rain eventually. But there are a lot of moving parts to this outlook with much fine-tuning to take place.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

A trend back to colder weather takes place in the final days of January with additional unsettled weather from at least one storm system – rain/mix/snow chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

A relatively weak low pressure area tracks northeastward today, making a pretty close pass, probably over Cape Cod / Islands later in the day before exiting via the Gulf of Maine. This track brings a light to moderate snowfall to the region in general, but also allows enough warm air to come in to change the snow to rain over Cape Cod and the Islands and at least bring some mix/change up toward the Boston area for a time during the afternoon. Pockets of sleet and freezing rain are possible in the mix area. None of that should be too long lasting, but untreated roads that see frozen / freezing precipitation can be slick today, so use caution and allow extra time if traveling. Conditions improve quickly tonight in terms of weather, but again any untreated surfaces that saw some melting or areas that saw rain will ice over due to cold air becoming firmly established. We have a dry and chilly midweek ahead as high pressure controls the weather. Watching another storm threat for late week – timing later Friday to very early Saturday right now. As it stands now, the upper level pattern doesn’t allow this to become a big winter storm for the region, but a light to moderate snowfall potential is definitely there, favoring areas further south. But there are still a few days to go to fine tune the details on this one.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow of varying intensity, mostly light to moderate, but changing to rain Islands / Cape Cod, and mixing with or changing to rain, freezing rain, and sleet for a while South Shore up to about Boston briefly, before ending as snow or snow showers early this evening. Snowfall accumulation a general 2 to 5 inches, highest amounts more likely west of I-95 including a few 5 to 7 inch potential totals hills north central MA to southwestern NH, and just a coating to 2 inches South Coast, least Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 25-32 west of I-95, 32-39 east of I-95. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding over. Snow likely by later in the day and at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow likely Lows 15-22. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Highs 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

A moderating temperature trend takes place during this period. Starting with fair weather then turning unsettled with some snow/mix/rain later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Pattern look unsettled into or through mid period with a mild start then a colder trend and some potentially messy winter weather returning. Drier, seasonable trend late period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

High pressure brings dry and cold weather to the region during today. A wave of low pressure heads northeastward off the coast Tuesday, passing southeast of New England, bringing our region a widespread light to borderline moderate snowfall. This will be followed by a dry and cold midweek. Another storm threat looms later in the week with a chance of snow returning during Friday – details TBD depending on low pressure’s track.

TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in general, a few under 2 inch amounts MA South Shore to South Coast, a few isolated amounts up to 5 inches possible north and west of Boston. Highs 26-33. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding over. Snow likely by later in the day and at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Fair weather returns for the January 20-21 weekend with below normal temperatures, coldest January 20. A minor system may bring a few snow showers to the region around the middle of the period but overall fair weather and a moderating temperature trend expected later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Watching for a potential storm somewhere in the early to mid portion of this period with fair weather to return behind it. Temperatures closer to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

Colder times are ahead in a more sustained way than we’ve seen for a while. It starts with the passage of an arctic cold front today. This front will cross the region from west to east this afternoon and produce a band of convection. While there may be an isolated rain/snow shower ahead of it and some isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls behind it, the main line, which I expect to cross the WHW forecast area between about 2:30 and 6:00 p.m., will be pretty solid across most of the area. There may be rain involved in it the further east and southeast you are, with higher chance of that south of Boston, but even areas that start with rain can flip very quickly to snow. Thunder is possible with the main convective band, and snowfall rates that can drop up to 2 inches of snow in under a 1 hour period. Strong wind gusts and very low visibility will accompany this line. Also, a quick accumulation of snow, even if rain falls first, will freeze rather quickly as darkness falls and temperatures drop behind the frontal boundary. Please be aware of these hazards if out and about this afternoon and evening. Monitor much like you’d monitor for possible thunderstorms.

Cold air settles in tonight and hangs around for the Monday MLK Jr holiday and beyond. Our next storm threat will be a wave of low pressure on an offshore frontal boundary passing by to our southeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This looks like it will produce a widespread light to moderate snowfall for the region mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. Dry and cold weather returns after this event for midweek.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Clouds advance west to east afternoon with a few isolated rain/snow showers by mid afternoon then a squall line of mostly snow and some graupel (some rain east of I-95 mainly south of Boston) with accumulations of a coating to 1 inch of snow likely and locally up to 2 inches, including possible thunder. Watch for rapid icing up of untreated surfaces during and after. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a brief snow shower/squall possible early, then clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow develops during the afternoon south to north. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening with snow likely. Expected snowfall accumulation 3 to 5 inches but under 3 inches possible South Coast. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Colder / active pattern continues. Watching for a winter storm threat later January 19 into the start of the January 20-21 weekend. Another disturbance may bring snow showers later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Cold eases with more seasonable temperatures heading into late month, but the pattern remains active with at least one storm threat during this period, leaning mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

This 3-day weekend (MLK Jr. Day on Monday) will feature changing weather daily. We start with the second major storm this week in our dynamic, active pattern. Low pressure cranks through the Great Lakes today on its way to eastern Canada / Hudson’s Bay. The ongoing impact is the heaviest rainfall as the day dawns, along with the strongest wind gusts expected with that system, mainly from the southeast up to around 30 MPH inland and 50+ MPH in coastal areas. This is lightly weaker than the last system but still capable of producing damage, especially to older trees weakened by previous batterings and sitting in ground that hasn’t had a chance to freeze. And while the general rainfall amounts will be less in this event, more on the order of 1 to 2 inches with spot heavier amounts, any moderate to heavy rainfall just exacerbates flooding we haven’t quite recovered from yet on rivers and streams, not to mention the shorter term poor drainage flooding and ponding of water on road ways. One plus is that this system occurring on a weekend morning means there is less auto travel and related impact. The worst of the rain and wind will be ending from west to east during the course of the early to mid morning hours. A secondary low pressure system on the triple point of the system (where warm and cold fronts meet to form an occlusion) will move right across our region this midday and early afternoon. There are two things to note with this. Areas that get into the warm sector make a run at 60 for a high temp, at least well into the 50s. This will be RI and eastern MA. The other thing is you’ll notice much lighter wind during the passage / development of the new low over the region as the pressure over the region will be rather similar, with little gradient to create wind flow. This low won’t really get its act together until it starts to move across Maine later today and into eastern Canada after. Later today we will notice the wind pick up from the southwest behind this system, and as a low pressure trough trailing it swings through, additional rain showers, even brief downpours, can occur up until early evening before exiting into the water to our east. The other major aspect of today’s storm is tidal flooding. The bad news is we have astronomically higher tides than the last event. The good news is we should not see a storm surge like the last event and the high tide will occur after the strongest winds have subsided. But the ocean / surf will still be quite rough and splash over and flooding is still likely there, while vulnerable areas along marshland (Hampton Beach NH, for example) will see another round of higher water.

During tonight, we’ll have breezy conditions with a gusty west wind, and this should help dry off many surfaces before the temperature can fall to around or slightly below freezing, especially away from the coastline. But areas that do still have water on the ground can ice over, so use caution if driving or walking. Ground that looks wet can indeed be a sheet of ice. Temperatures will rise sufficiently Sunday morning-midday to take care of this issue, but colder air is inbound for Sunday night and a more rapid freeze up of any leftover water on the ground will take place.

Speaking of Sunday and the arrival of cold. It won’t happen right away. First, while cooler than today most certainly, it will still manage to get to 40 in many areas, but a disturbance moving southwest to northeast across New England during the afternoon will drag a trough and cold front through, and this will ignite showers of rain, graupel, and snow, with precipitation type depending on location and timing of passing showers. Snow shower / snow squall chances are higher to the west, with more of a variety / mix in the I-95 belt, and rain showers toward the coast. Any of these can quickly, but very briefly, reduce visibility, and where snow squalls occur, a quick accumulation can make roads and walkways very slippery. A few follow up snow showers are possible into evening as the colder air arrives in earnest. This will lead us to a bright but dry and cold holiday on Monday, with a gusty breeze and below normal temperatures, and needing to talk about wind chill readings for the first time in quite a while. And while this is by no means to be a harsh arctic outbreak of any kind, it will feel pretty cold in comparison to the mild weather that’s dominated early winter so far. This brings us to our next weather event to keep track of. And that is a snow chance that comes on Tuesday. This system will be a fairly flat wave of low pressure passing to our southeast. In order to draw the precipitation area far enough north to impact our region, we will need to see another trough to the north partially capture the system. I believe this will occur, but not in such a way that delivers a widespread major snowfall. We’re instead looking at a short-duration, minor to potentially moderate one, with the higher chance of moderate amounts being the further east and south you are. This system exits quickly and we return to dry but cold weather for Wednesday. Yes, the warmer pattern is finally departing the Northeast. In fact, the entire US Mainland east of the Rockies will see below normal temperatures next week.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain tapering to rain showers southwest to northeast. Areas of fog especially over the coastal plain midday into afternoon. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with passing rain showers possible. Highs 45-52 northwestern higher elevations, 53-60 elsewhere. Wind SE shifting to SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts into mid morning, variable 5-15 MPH late morning-midday, SW 15-25 MPH mid afternoon on.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers of rain (nearest coast), mix/graupel (I-95 belt), and snow (interior areas) during the afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a brief snow shower/squall possible early, then clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow develops during the afternoon south to north. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening with snow likely. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Colder / active pattern continues. Watching for a winter storm threat later January 19 into the start of the January 20-21 weekend. Another disturbance may bring snow showers late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Cold eases with more seasonable temperatures heading into late month, but the pattern remains active with at least one storm threat during this period, leaning mid to late period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

While folks are driven to look past the upcoming storm at a potential that guidance can’t get a good handle on, just because there are snowflakes involved, it’s important to not lose focus on the fact we have another significant storm just hours away from arriving here, and prolonging issues created by the previous one. If there’s some good news, it’s that the overall impact of this one may and should end up somewhat less than its predecessor, but with astronomically higher tides than the last one, it’s not going to take much to put water back into places that saw it a few days ago – Hampton Beach NH, for one example, and other locations as well. This will be taking place during Saturday’s midday high tide cycle, but of course the impacts can begin hours before high tide when winds are strongest from the southeast with the event. Timing-wise, rain/wind will be most prominent in the overnight hours from late tonight to around sunrise Saturday, but with the storm still passing by and some decent wind, we can’t ignore the coastal flooding potential from the high tide that comes a bit later. Rainfall potential and wind potential are a little lower (about 1 or 2 inches lower and about 10 to 20 MPH lower, respectively, than the previous event), but still enough to cause additional issues – street flooding, stream and river flooding, and pockets of wind damage and resultant power outages. The low that causes all this takes a track somewhat similar to the last one. With the air a little less cold than before the last storm, any snow that occurs at the very start of the precipitation tonight will be brief and confined to highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but also comes at a time when it would not impact heavier vehicular travel – late at night – whereas the last one showed up during the Tuesday evening commute.

Moving on from the storm, as we go through the holiday weekend we’ll be introduced to a new weather pattern – a colder one. You’ll notice it with a colder trend, not so much Saturday, but later Sunday and Monday. During Sunday, a front has to cross the region and may produce a shower of rain, mix, or snow, depending on location and timing, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that. MLK Jr Day on Monday looks dry but with below normal temperatures. We then turn our attention to the next storm threat, which guidance waffles around with this far in advance, and that’s not unusual. The pattern supports a good shot at some snow here arriving on Tuesday. The magnitude and details of this potential need to be brought into focus, and can be done so over the coming few days.

TODAY: Patchy clouds but plenty of sun during the morning. Increasing clouds this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives midnight and after from southwest to northeast, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH evening, SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast overnight, strongest toward dawn.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain ending southwest to northeast. Variably cloudy remainder of day – passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind SE shifting to SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially early.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A rain or snow shower possible in the afternoon Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 16-23. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Early snow chance January 17. Another storm threat late January 19 to January 20 window. Much TBD regarding the later-period threat, but overall pattern as both active and colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern remains active, but also remains colder. This continues the opportunities for additional snowfall.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

Our active pattern continues. But there are also changes ahead. But let’s go one step at a time, starting with a couple more tranquil days today and Friday. Weak high pressure in general control of our weather, but an inversion in the lower atmosphere is causing an extensive blanket of broken clouds that will limit sun today, and just when they start to thin out, some higher level clouds will arrive with a disturbance passing by the region. I’ve removed any chance of precipitation from the short-term forecast though as I don’t think that disturbance has the ability to do it. And while the day will be tranquil Friday, clouds will also dominate ahead of our next storm system. At least the air will remain on the mild side as the region deals with cleanup from the previous storm. River flooding will peak today in most areas in the wake of that storm, before it recedes a bit on Friday. But look out, because another significant storm is set to impact the region Friday night into Saturday. This low pressure area is set to take a somewhat similar track to its predecessor, into the Great Lakes region. This puts us on the warm side of the storm, but it’s not “warmth” that we need to worry about. There may be just enough cold air for brief snow in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but less impactful than last time since its a brief period and also occurring outside of main commute time (late Friday night). Otherwise this will be a rain event, a little less in scope than the last one, with a more general 1 to 2 inch rainfall. However, any appreciable rainfall will just prolong any ongoing flooding. Additionally, another period of strong winds is anticipated, maybe a little less than the last event but still enough to result in some tree / property damage. As with the last event, the strongest winds will be near the coast. Unfortunately, we’re also looking at another round of coastal flooding, especially around the time of Saturday’s late morning / midday high tide. Astronomical tides are a little higher than they were in the last event. Hopefully, the slightly weaker nature of this event will be enough to compensate and not make the flooding any more extensive than the previous episode. We will have to monitor this closely during the event, but it’s wise for anybody potentially effected to be ready for similar flooding. Improving weather is due as we move through Saturday afternoon and night. But this time, instead of staying mild like in the wake of the storm before it, there is colder air to tap and deliver into the region as we move through the remainder of the holiday weekend Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will accompany the colder trend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH evening, SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE-SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially early.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

Colder weather pattern with temperatures near to below normal. Storm threats January 16 and 20, the first most likely a snow event for most or all of the region. The one later in the period TBD for regionwide precip-type and other details.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern remains active, but also colder. This increases opportunities for additional snowfall.

STORM REVIEW

We’re not quite done with our storm yet, as it impacts the region today too, but the early snow, most of the rain, and the strongest winds are history. The expectation was for 1 to 3 inches of snow at the outset in areas well northwest of Boston, and the reports I have seen indicate about 1 inch in North Chelmsford MA to 2.4 inches at Fitchburg MA. Rainfall expectations were also 1 to 3 inches, with most reports I have seen so far being between 1.50 and 3.00 inches. Street flooding was prominent during the event, and stream and river flooding will be an issue over the next 2 or 3 days as we see run off from rain and melted snow combined. Top wind gusts came in pretty much in the expected range, around or a little over 40 MPH well inland building up to 55-65 MPH in coastal areas, (65 MPH recorded at Chatham MA). Potential wind gusts of up to 70 MPH were expected and a gust of 70 MPH was reported atop Blue Hill in Milton MA at the famous observatory there.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

The low pressure area that gave us our wet and windy event will continue to impact the region today and tonight with gusty winds from the southwest and west, though not as strong as what we saw during the rainfall. Additional rain showers around this morning will exit from west to east, and from here on its dry with the exception of a possible additional rain shower across the hilly terrain of north central MA and southern NH late today or this evening. Additional cloudiness moves across western and northern portions of the WHW forecast area into tonight while a clearing trend takes place elsewhere. Thursday we lose the influence of the big low, but a smaller disturbance brings some additional clouds into the region, and with slightly colder air having filtered in, a quick shower of light snow may take place, again favoring northwestern parts of the region from north central MA to southern NH, late in the day. Otherwise it’ll be too dry for this to do much. As we remain in an active pattern, we have another significant storm to contend with. I’ve been wondering if this system would end up further southeast than its predecessor, but it appears that the upper air pattern will be similar enough that this one will take a similar track to the one we just had, with similar results too, maybe to a slightly lesser degree overall. That said, it still remains a high probability that we get hit with another significant storm later Friday into early Saturday. More detail to come on impacts. Behind this, the cold air delivery will be stronger, so as we head into the middle of the holiday weekend it will be dry (maybe a few snow flurries), and windy with temperatures near to a little below normal.

TODAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers ending from west to east early. Clouds break for sun at times thereafter. A late day rain shower possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 50-57 early, except 40s some far northwestern areas, then falling into the 40s throughout the region. Wind SW-W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds at times central to northeastern MA and southern NH, with only a few clouds elsewhere. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day snow shower possible higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH, increasing overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SE-SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A snow shower possible. Highs 28-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Storm threat window January 15-16. Fair weather trend follows. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern is still active, but also colder. This increases opportunities for snow.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

After a briefly colorful sunrise for eastern areas today, clouds advance and grey the sky in advance of our next storm system, which will have quite a different personality than its predecessor. Low pressure which sat in the southern Plains early this morning will race northeastward through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley in the next 24 hours. This system’s impact here will be significant, occurring mostly between dusk today and dawn tomorrow, so let’s break down the aspects of it…

Snow: The only minor part really, and it can start as snow this evening anywhere from the Boston area north and west, with 1 to 3 inches in the higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH and no appreciable accumulation elsewhere. This will be short-lived, with rain quickly taking its place.

Rain: Heaviest rain comes in the 6 hours between midnight and dawn, and there may be embedded thunder. General rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches.

Flooding: The potential for this is actually highest over interior areas where the rain potential is highest (2-3 inches) and the snow pack is deepest, with lots of melting of that to combine with the heavy rainfall. Poor drainage flooding will be nearly immediate, small stream flooding follows quickly after, and river flooding follows soon after and may last up to several days. Coastal flooding will be much less of an issue with just some high tide splash over in prone areas.

Wind: The greatest potential for damaging wind gusts resides along the coast, both the South Coast and the East Coast, and the wind potential drops off quite a bit inland. Ironically, the same snow pack that can enhance flooding over inland locations can act to limit the strong wind due to an inversion that forms because of the “refrigeration” near the surface, creating a barrier in which the strong wind just above struggles to mix down to the surface through the colder layer there. So wind gusts should be much less the further inland you go.

Power outages: Highest potential will be where winds are strongest – east of I-95, but cannot rule out isolated outages in locations to the west as well.

Post storm… During the day on Wednesday, we’ll be in a southwest to west wind flow, a little less strong than during the storm, but still notably gusty. Much of the ground should dry out during the afternoon but any remaining water can freeze Wednesday night / early Thursday as the temperature drops, so keep note of that if you need to be out walking or driving and can come across any of these slippery surfaces. As for Thursday’s weather, a disturbance and cold front passing by during the afternoon or evening can trigger a rain or snow shower. Friday starts with sun which is followed by clouds as the next storm system approaches. This one brings a round of precipitation Friday night into Saturday. The majority of this storm looks like more of a rain event for the bulk of the region, but as I believe guidance may not be completely correct in resolving this storm’s track just yet, we have to keep in mind there is the chance that the system is further south, we are colder, and there is at least some frozen precipitation involved for some areas for part of the event, so the forecast wording will reflect this by being intentionally vague. Fine-tuning will follow in future posts.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Highs 36-43. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving evening except a period of snow possible Boston area and probable northwest of Boston where 1-3 inches can fall in higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH. Moderate to heavy rain and a chance of thunder overnight. Lows 32-39 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE increasing to 25-35 MPH, gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 55-65 MPH coast, with peak gusts 65-70 MPH possible in a few coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with an early snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely. Lows 30-37. Highs 37-44. Wind variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

Watching storm threats January 15-16 and January 17-18 but guidance may be “confused” as to which disturbance to key on, so will work this out soon. Temperatures variable but near to slightly above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-22)

Colder trend with a potential messy storm before the period is over.

Post-storm look back. 3.1 inches at Logan, big build-up in snowfall to the north to as high as 18+ in parts of northern MA and southern NH. Lighter snow fell to the south, but they did get a burst at the end as the cold air arrived, and anything that was liquid late yesterday is frozen by now. Power outages from this one were not absent, but not nearly as widespread as an event not too long ago.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

A pleasant day today for storm cleanup and recovery, but it’s short lived. Another major storm system is heading this way, and will have a much different impact on our region than its predecessor. Low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and this one will be rather powerful. For our area, it will be sending a ribbon of precipitation that will take place between about dusk Tuesday to dawn Wednesday. It can start as a burst of snow for areas from about Metro Boston north and west, with even a brief accumulation, and rain elsewhere, but for all areas the bulk of this one will be rain, and heavy rain at that. In combination with melting snow, flooding issues are quite likely. Also, a strong southeast to south wind during the heaviest of the rain can lead to areas of wind damage and resultant power outages, so be prepared for that. During the day on Wednesday, we’ll be in a southwest to west wind flow, still strong and gusty but not as powerful, but with dry weather and mild air. At least this particular system won’t have any freeze-up issues to present as it departs. It won’t be until late at night / early Thursday morning that we see temperatures back around the freezing point, and by then most of the wet surfaces should have dried out with the aid of wind and drier air. Exceptions, snow banks that did not melt completely can have water draining from them that will freeze in the early hours of Thursday, so be aware of this if you should have to walk or drive or park near one. Thursday’s weather will be breezy and a rain or snow shower may come through the region late in the day in response to a passing disturbance and cold front.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow with brief accumulation possible from Boston north and west at the start. Heavy rain overnight. Lows 32-39 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE increasing to 25-35 MPH, gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 55-65 MPH coast, with spot gusts 70-75 MPH possible in a few coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with an early snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

Storm threat early in the holiday weekend. While the majority of guidance sends this low to our west and north, a track closer to or even south of us may occur, leaving many options on the table for precipitation type and overall impact this far in advance. Fine-tuning to come during the week. Generally fair weather for the balance of the holiday weekend. Active pattern may send the next storm system our way by the end of the period also. Temperature trend for the period is variable with active weather, but no major departures from normal expected – if anything slightly milder than average for the entire period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-21)

Storm signal early period. Drier weather after. Temperatures variable, but averaging near to a little above normal overall.