DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)

While far from perfection as defined by many, this final weekend of August will feature improved weather over yesterday’s. A cold front is now over southeastern MA and will continue to slowly drift offshore today. If you’re an early riser and reading this just after I post it, a couple downpours are still near Cape Ann and a few showers are scattered across Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod,and with the front still in these areas, especially Cape Cod / South Coast, into midday, there can still be a few more showers here this morning. This is one of those instances that behind the “cold front” it will warm up more than yesterday, due to the loss of heavy overcast and broad scale onshore wind, as a light wind will become more westerly behind the front. This provides a little bit of down sloping and also brings in air that did not pass over ocean water for most areas, except a few points along the irregular coastline. We’ll need to wait for a secondary trough to pass by tonight to bring in drier air, so today’s air will still be on the humid side. This, combined with the sun’s heat, and the approach of the secondary trough can trigger a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm over southern NH and central MA this afternoon, and these will fade as they drift southeastward by evening. Tonight, drier air will settle in on a northerly breeze. High pressure to our north will turn the wind a bit more northeasterly on Sunday, which will be a cooler and less humid day than today, and another disturbance drifting through at mid and upper levels will help trigger some additional clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers, but for the most part we are looking at a comfortable, mostly rain-free day. High pressure brings fair weather to all of the region on Monday, but a trough to our south will bring some clouds into southern areas, especially during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, Franklin, forecast to be a category 1 hurricane, will be moving northward, passing between Bermuda and the US East Coast by later Monday, then turning northeastward and staying at sea, but this system will be bringing increased surf and swells to the coastline from the early to middle portion of next week. The aforementioned trough to the south will be picked up by an approaching one from the west, and while this combination will play a part in keeping Franklin well offshore, it will also bring us another bout of unsettled weather. The current expecting timing of the greatest threat of showers from this system is the second half of Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday, but this is not set in stone just yet, so watch for updates.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers/downpours near Cape Ann and a few showers near Cape Cod early, then an additional shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast favoring Cape Cod mid morning to mid afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms possible in southern NH and central MA mid to late afternoon, diminishing while drifting southeast by evening. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Dew point 50s. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny except becoming variably cloudy South Coast. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds return. Shower chance increases. Highs 72-79. Dew point climbs to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Shower chance greatest morning, clouds decrease later. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ morning, falling below 60 later. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31– SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure is expected to be in control of the weather for most of this period, starting with low humidity then with a gradual increase in warmth and humidity with time. A weakening surface trough or remains of a frontal boundary may bring a more more clouds to the region and only the remote chance of a shower about the middle of the period, otherwise this looks like a mainly dry stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Higher humidity and eventual shower chances as a trough approaches and moves in from west to east, favoring early to mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

When I made the comment that summers containing an unsettled June and July are often followed by a splendid August and September, I was worried that I might have to eat those words. Well, I’ve had to snack on them a few times as we never have really broken out of the unsettled pattern during the month of August either. Although we have had some nice days in there, and before the month is done, we will enjoy a few more. Despite that, we still have unsettled weather to endure, including and especially today (and maybe again before the end of the 5-day period). Focusing on today’s event first, the clouds that were slow to move in yesterday in advance of this system finally did so and thickened up overnight with the first warm frontal showers arriving mid to late evening. Since then the area has seen fairly widespread shower activity which will continue for much of the day today. The most persistent shower activity will occur in the eastern half of the WHW forecast area, basically I-495 belt east. Original optimism I had about longer rain-free periods for this region this afternoon has faded and it looks like it will be a pretty wet day overall, though areas to the west will still get a break in the activity more often as we head through the day. The warm front that approaches never really gets through here at all, so a broad onshore component to the wind flow will keep it on the cool side today despite the high humidity. While a couple of embedded thunderstorms can occur in these rounds of showers today and this evening, the parameters for strong to severe storms will not line up, so we won’t be needing to worry about tracking any of that. The region will receive a general 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from this event, with a few locations favoring southeastern MA possibly exceeding the 2 inch mark. A positive aspect of this is that flooding will be limited due to the more drawn-out timeline of heavier rainfall as opposed to having it all fall over a few hour’s time. The ground is already wet and the water tables are high, so it doesn’t take much to return to flooding status especially in prone areas. This system will not be in a hurry to exit tonight with the shower and isolated thunderstorm threat continuing into the overnight hours, but shifting to favor the I-95 belt eastward. There is somewhat better news for the weekend. While we’re not going to have a perfect summer weekend, the final one of August will feature OK weather. Dew points will remain fairly high Saturday with a slow drop-off from west to east as a frontal boundary pushes through. This front can still help to trigger isolated showers with thunderstorms a little more possible than today due to better heating and instability, but it’s not a set-up for widespread activity. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, just keep an eye on the sky and/or radar and have a plan in place just in case. For many of us, these plans will not be needed. Saturday evening, drier air finally makes its way in from the north, and on Sunday we’ll experience a cooler day with lower dew points, but the combination of a more northeasterly air flow and a weak disturbance aloft will create some additional clouds, and I cannot rule out a couple isolated pop up showers. Again though, this is nothing worth cancelling outdoor plans over. High pressure builds over the region with fair and comfortable weather Monday. Things begin to change again on Tuesday as the high slips away to the northeast and a trough approaches from the west. At the same time, western Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (forecast Hurricane Franklin) is expected to be occurring. The trough approaching is fully expected to help keep that system well offshore, but it will be close enough that increased ocean swells / surf and enhanced rip current risk takes place early next week. Keep this in mind if you have plans that include being at the coast. What I am not sure of yet is the timing of any rainfall threat associated with the approaching trough. Yesterday, my thought process was a wet Tuesday, but medium range guidance has slowed this system enough to make me lean toward a later arrival at this point, but will continue to monitor and refine the timing. For now, just anticipate that Tuesday won’t be as nice as Monday.

TODAY: Patchy fog early. Cloudy with widespread to numerous showers this morning, numerous to scattered showers this afternoon, including the slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Patchy fog early. Isolated midday and afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s through midday, lowering slowly thereafter. Wind S to SW increasing to 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east during the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Dew point 50s. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds return. Shower chance increases. Highs 72-79. Dew point climbs to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A trough moving through the region brings the chance of showers at least into August 30 (timing uncertain) before high pressure builds in for fair weather to end the month and start September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Higher humidity and eventual shower chances as a trough approaches and moves in from west to east, favoring mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

While a high pressure ridge continues to bottle the late summer heat up in the middle of the US, a trough of low pressure will drop out of Canada and enter the Northeast via the Great Lakes during the next couple of days. Surface low pressure associated with this feature will send its warm front our way, which will increase the clouds from west to east during today. Rainfall associated with this front will hold off until later this evening and overnight, arriving from west to east, with the most widespread activity good up until about midday Friday. This will then push off to the east and while the front attempts to lift through the region, but may not make it all the way through before low pressure from the west drags the boundary back to the south and southeast Friday night into Saturday. A couple more showers and possibly a thunderstorm can take place during this process, and one disturbance can cause a more widespread shower batch during the early morning hours Saturday before this exits to the east around daybreak. Saturday will be a transition day as that system slowly moves away and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. We’ll end up in a northerly air flow between the two with a surface drying trend, while chilly air alot keeps it unstable enough that we can see a few pop up showers later in the day. I do think this activity will be limited, however, with no need to cancel any Saturday outdoor plans. Just add the priority of monitoring the radar for whatever location you will be in and have a plan in case you’re interrupted. Again, most won’t have to deal with this. High pressure edges eastward from the Great Lakes into New England during the course of Sunday with fair and comfortably dry weather, and the high hangs on into if not through Monday with fair weather continuing. We may see some clouds making a comeback later Monday in response to the approach of the next unsettled weather system. This will be another trough that drops into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as the high pressure ridge in the central US retrogrades into the western Plains and Rockies by the start of next week…

TODAY: Any early morning low elevation fog will dissipate by mid morning. Sunshine gives way to clouds from west to east during the course of the day. Highs 73-80. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Showers arriving west to east. Lows 61-68. Dew point climbs over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog until mid morning. Widespread showers until midday. Scattered to isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms midday on. Highs 71-78. Dew point peaking middle to upper 60s. Wind SE-S north of I-90, S-SW south of I-90, generally 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog redevelop. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, with a more widespread shower area possibly moving through from west to east just before dawn. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early morning clouds, areas of fog, and maybe a lingering shower especially eastern coastal areas, favoring Cape Cod, then clouds break for sun with a slight chance of isolated showers midday-afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point hovers 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming N and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine may give way to some clouds by later in the day. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

August 29 is vulnerable to higher humidity and showery weather as a trough of low pressure moves through the region, based on current timing. The same trough would help keep forecast Hurricane Franklin well offshore between the US East Coast and Bermuda as it starts to accelerate northeast. An offshore system like that does send higher ocean swells and surf into the coastline though, so be aware of that if you have beach and/or boating plans, and this may start as early as Monday and linger through the middle of next week. Looking for a return to dry weather heading through midweek as the trough pulls away and another dry, cool airmass arrives August 30, then modifies as high pressure builds overhead and south of the region from the final day of August into the first couple days of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

The large scale pattern will feature a flatter overall flow, but still high pressure ridging in the Rockies and western Plains while a trough has taken up residence in the Midwest with more high pressure off the US East Coast. This allows surface high pressure to potentially maintain control through the Labor Day Weekend with a gradual increase in warmth and humidity. Eventually the trough from the west increases our unsettled weather chances but may not occur until later in this period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

The big picture pattern continues to feature a low pressure trough in eastern Canada with another one set to drop in and take its place, but a little further west, as we head into late week, while a ridge of high pressure keep summer heat bottled up over the central US. For us, we get high pressure and pleasant weather today before the high slips offshore and the disturbance associated with the new trough approaches on Thursday, sending clouds our way. Thursday will still be a fairly nice day through as the wet weather threat will hold off likely until the nighttime hours. A warm front will try crossing the region overnight / Friday morning with showers and higher humidity. I’m not sure this front makes it all the way through, and while we wait for a wave of low pressure to move by, expect additional showers and possible thunderstorms at times into Friday evening. This will all push offshore by early Saturday, but we still have another disturbance to wait on passing by our region, so Saturday itself will still feature the chance of a few showers around the area. I’m optimistic the coverage won’t be widespread though, however I do expect a cooler than normal day. Sunday will also feature below normal temperatures, but with much more sun and absent of a shower threat as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches again. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH but may stay SE or E in areas mostly north of I-90.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60 or lower. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 55 or lower. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

General northwesterly upper level air flow expected during the home stretch of August with surface high pressure in control much of the time. Exception about mid period with a disturbance and shower threat possible. Watch for rough surf / large swells along the coast due to well-offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

General west to northwest upper air flow with high pressure ridge to the west and trough in eastern Canada, some day to day temperatures variability and a couple shower episodes possible heading through the Labor Day Weekend and just beyond. Much fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

The large scale pattern features a trough over eastern Canada and a large high pressure ridge over the central US, with our region in a northwesterly air flow between the two. This continues through midweek before pattern retrogression later this week backs the trough up into the US Northeast. What this means is that we’ll have a couple of pleasant and dry days today and tomorrow, then a turn to unsettled weather later Thursday through Friday. A nudge eastward of things again should bring improvement by the weekend, but it may be shaky improvement, not completely free of a shower chance on Saturday. There is no significant heat in the forecast. All of that will remain bottled up over the central US, and if anything will expand westward during the retrograding portion of the upcoming pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches again. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH but may stay SE or E in areas mostly north of I-90.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers, especially in the morning. Highs 70-77. Dew point under 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

General northwesterly upper level air flow expected during the home stretch of August with surface high pressure in control much of the time. Watch for rough surf / large swells along the coast due to well-offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

A slightly less amplified pattern, still with the mean ridge in the central US and a trough in eastern Canada much of the time. For our region this is a zonal flow pattern with a couple disturbances bringing brief shower threats. Temperatures are variable but lean to the cooler side of normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

The last full week of August begins with a warm and more humid day as a cold front approaches. This front’s approach will be heralded by a lot of clouds and partial sun, but only the chance of a passing shower later in the afternoon to early this evening from northwest to southeast across the area. Behind the front comes a push of cooler, drier air from Canada into midweek, with an area of high pressure moving in through Wednesday. High pressure slips offshore by Thursday and a warm front will approach from the west as another low pressure area moves into the Great Lakes. This front will bring a batch of showers to the region Thursday night into early Friday, and after its passage we’ll have a slug of humid air Friday until the cold front trailing the low pushes through the region that evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the cold front’s approach and passage later Friday.

TODAY: Cloud / sun intervals. A late-day shower possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the early evening, then clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

A shower chance may be present to start the weekend early on August 26, otherwise the trend is drier with below normal temperatures for August 26-27. High pressure should sit over our area early to mid portion of next week with fair weather and a gradual warming trend. Watch for increasing surf and swells along the coast by the middle of next week due to far offshore tropical cyclone activity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure shifting offshore allows temperatures to average closer to or even a little above normal for a day or 2, but with a couple disturbances moving into and across the region, opportunities for showers are also going to be present at times. Not looking for a very wet pattern through as this period of time will be highly scrutinized for Labor Day Weekend plans.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Into late August we go with some nice weather finally outweighing unsettled weather, at least for a stretch of days, and a continuation of the lack of heat with a cool northwesterly air flow being dominant overall. However, we do start the period with a 2-day warm-up today and Monday. Yesterday being as cool as it was with a lot of clouds, it won’t be hard to warm up today with much more sun and a land breeze. Humidity stays low. That humidity will start to increase tonight into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring periods of clouds to the region and a few passing showers possible especially late Monday afternoon and evening. The front keeps on moving through, and we see a dry, cooler air mass for Tuesday through midweek, though clouds may be moving in by later Thursday in response to the next approaching low pressure trough.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. A late-day shower possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

A frontal boundary and low pressure system moving through the region brings unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms August 25. I’m optimistic for a drier air mass from Canada to arrive for the August 26-27 weekend, but there’s a little uncertainty on how quickly this may take place. Fair weather should prevail later in the period with high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A general northwest flow is expected between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in central central US. This pattern is not hot and not too wet, but a couple episodes of unsettled weather likely occur with passing disturbances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

After yet another active weather day yesterday which included high humidity, showers and thunderstorms, and a handful of tornadoes in southern New England, it’s time to take a deep breath and a break, and mother nature will provide that opportunity this weekend, and into next week, with much less action to talk about and track. We do have an upper level low pressure area situation just to our north that will have an impact on the weather today, however, but not in a major way. It’s part of a pattern that’s delivering a cooler, much drier air mass – a hint of early autumn especially if you were up early. Around the upper low are lots of high and mid level clouds, some of those trying to wheel into our region this morning, but also fighting dry air which limits the extent to which they can cover the sky. But the solar heating, combined with the cold pool of air aloft, will ignite diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus cloud development later this morning into this afternoon which can become quite extensive, limiting the sun that helped them develop. This, along with a cool breeze and low dew points, will make today feel unlike many of the muggy days we’ve experienced this summer – finally a chance to dry out! Sunday’s weather will be quite nice, still with low dew points for comfort, but warmer by 5 to 10 degrees over today’s high temps, with much more abundant sun as the upper low moves away and a weak high pressure ridge follows it. High pressure slips offshore Monday and a cold front approaches from southeastern Canada. This will be our one very warm and slightly humid day of the 5-day period. While high temps jump well into the 80s the dew point climbs back into the 60s, so you’ll feel that bit of mugginess back. The cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast during the evening and may trigger a shower or possibly a thunderstorm, but this is not looking like a widespread heavy rainfall event – just a quick hit for a few areas, then gone. A mild, dry air mass overspreads the region after that with the return of fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunniest eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT with clouds moving in at times elsewhere through mid morning, then lots of clouds popping up late morning into afternoon with limited sun, especially away from the coast. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57 except 58-65 urban centers. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure wrapping up and tracking north of our region today will drag, in quick succession, a warm front, a trough, and a cold front through. Foggy areas and patches of drizzle will accompany the warm front, a band of widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms accompany the trough, which will move through from west southwest to east northeast this morning, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can accompany the cold front, which will move through from west to east during the early to mid afternoon hours. The greatest chance of severe weather is damaging wind gusts with thunderstorms from the trough, and there is only a slight chance of a damaging wind gust and some hail in any isolated storms with the cold front. It all clears out by evening when a cooler, dry air mass overspreads the region. Our weekend will be a generally nice one, but with a hint of autumn in the air Saturday with very low dew points, below normal temperatures, and a sky that will become filled with lots of diurnal clouds, a result of solar heating and colder air aloft. These dissipate / clear out at night, and help to set up a sunnier Sunday with less wind, warmer air, but still comfortably low humidity. So the pick of the weekend is definitely Sunday for the feel of the season we’re actually in. Monday, we briefly turn warmer and more humid ahead of a Canadian cold front, which may bring an evening shower or thunderstorm, followed by a drier, cooler Tuesday, a result of a northwest flow pattern between Middle USA high pressure ridging and eastern Canadian troughing.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and drizzle, then widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms move through during the morning hours, with breaks of sun but still a passing shower or thunderstorm possible during early through mid afternoon before increasing sun and passing clouds later on. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s from west to east late in the day. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W from west to east, higher gusts possible. Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts possible with any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 40s. Wind W 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

A frontal boundary continues to hang just to our south, with our region on the cool side. But being on the cool side of this boundary also comes with relatively high humidity, not dry air, so clouds are quite dominant and will continue to be today, but with a lack of any rain / drizzle chances, so just dry weather, mild, humid, but not that much sun. That’s the Thursday story. Low pressure passing to our northwest and north tonight into Friday will finally drag the frontal boundary north as a warm front with an increased chance of showers tonight into Friday before a cold front sweeps eastward across the region. When this happens, add the chance of thunderstorms too. Some downpours are likely, but I’m not expecting widespread heavy rain coverage, and where it does occur it will tend to be brief, limiting flooding. The cold front sweeps offshore by late Friday as we see the shower/storm threat drop off and end from west to east during Friday afternoon to early evening. Behind this front comes a refreshing dry air mass from Canada. Saturday’s weather will feature low humidity, a gusty breeze, and a sun/cloud mix, with dry weather as any showers triggered by cool air aloft will occur in the mountains to our north. A more gentle westerly breeze is expected Sunday with less diurnal clouds, more sun, slightly warmer air, and a small and slow up-tick in humidity levels, but still fairly comfortable. Monday, a cold front is expected to drop southeastward out of Canada in response to a trough in eastern Canada, introducing a new Canadian air mass at some point during the day. This is part of a larger scale pattern that will be keeping a hot ridge of high pressure to our west, preventing heat here.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to S 5-15 MPH in southern areas by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers evening. Scattered showers overnight, a few possibly heavy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east during the afternoon hours. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling below 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point briefly 60+ then dropping into 50s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

General pattern should feature a northwesterly upper level air flow with a ridge of high pressure in the central US and a trough of low pressure from eastern Canada to northern New England. This pattern keeps major heat out, with near to below normal temperatures, but leaves the door open for passing disturbances and fronts with shower and thunderstorm chances a couple times.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final days of August look like they’ll feature a similar pattern with temperatures near to below normal as cool air is reinforced behind brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

This set-up mimics spring in some ways, with a frontal boundary stuck just to our south, and us on the cool side. Of course, it being August, it’s a “warm” cool and the humidity is more noticeable as a result. But once again, it’s not a combo of heat and humidity, which has been lacking this summer. Through August 15, Boston’s Logan Airport has recorded only 4 days of 90 degrees or higher, with the highest of the summer 91 so far. Inland, it’s a slightly different story, where there have been a few more 90+ days, but still not that many, and some of the seasonal highs are in the middle 90s, but these bouts have been sparse and brief. And there are no 90 degree days in sight right now either, at least through this 5-day period to start with. Today we remain locked on the cool side of the boundary with lots of clouds and a light onshore breeze. A disturbance passing by will trigger some showers mostly south of I-90 this morning, maybe an embedded thunderstorm close to Cape Cod. Slight drying this afternoon allows for breaks of sun, and maybe just enough solar heating to trigger a pop up shower over the hilly terrain of southwestern NH and/or central MA, but for the most part, most of the region will see a rain-free day with below normal temperatures and not much wind. Tonight, the clouds want to break, but enough low level moisture exists for an increase in stratus clouds and areas of fog to develop, so it could be variable enough that you could be driving along and see stars through the clouds and 1 mile later be enshrouded by a fog bank. An increasing southerly air flow on Thursday will help break up any fog and the lowest clouds, but there will still be a fair amount of clouds due to the high humidity at lower levels. At the same time, other clouds from an approaching trough will be moving in from the south and west, so any sun we do see on Thursday will be rather limited. An initial disturbance may incite a swath of showers in the South Coast / Cape Cod region during the afternoon before a ribbon of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moves into the region from west to east overnight into Friday. This will occur as the front that has been sitting to our south finally lifts through as a warm front. If there is a break with more sun between that area and one more with an approaching cold front Friday, one more broken to possibly solid line of showers and storms on Friday late morning to early afternoon can be more potent. I still think the frontal timing and speed is fast enough that we see a drying trend from west to east during the later hours of Friday, and most especially Friday evening and night. After this mess of clouds, humidity, and showers exits, we set up for a weekend of fair weather and low humidity. Saturday will be the breezier of the 2 days with a fresh west to northwest breeze and passing fair weather clouds, while Sunday likely features lighter wind and more sun.

TODAY: Clouds dominate. Sun breaks rare but possible. Shower chance is highest south of I-90 with a possible t-storm for Cape Cod until late morning. Isolated showers southwestern NH / central MA later on. Patchy drizzle possible. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH, shifting to SE later.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Shower chance highest in the afternoon over southern RI and southeastern MA. Late-day showers may reach eastern CT and central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising toward 70. Wind SE to S increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling below 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

General pattern should feature a northwesterly upper level air flow with a ridge of high pressure in the central US and a trough of low pressure from eastern Canada to northern New England. This pattern keeps major heat out, but leaves the door open for passing disturbances and shower/storm chances, but not an overly wet set-up.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

No big changes to the 6-10 day pattern expected during this period either. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable. Brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

A frontal boundary, trying to be a warm front, will instead become a quasi-stationary front as it makes a feeble attempt to move northward into our region today. It gets to about Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, Block Island and maybe touches a portion of the South Coast, otherwise stays to the south and even moves a bit further south by evening as an initial wave of low pressure goes by from west to east. A swath of widespread showers and some embedded downpours moved into the region overnight and will gradually taper off and exit during the course of this morning. Heavier thunderstorms have been located to the south and will pass mostly off shore, only clipping Nantucket for a while from early to mid morning. A general east to northeast flow will keep it on the cooler side, though it will be quite humid, and with temp / dew point readings nearly the same we’ll see areas of fog and drizzle around even as showers taper off and exit, under a sky that remains generally overcast throughout the afternoon into this evening. Another disturbance will kick off showers and a few heavier downpours and possible thunderstorms especially near the South Coast again tonight, lingering as long as the hours around dawn on Wednesday. Elsewhere, just spotty drizzle and possible sprinkles of very light rain occur. During the day Wednesday, the final disturbance exits, and there will be a slow arrival of drier air, but with the air flow still from the northeast for a good part of the day, the clearing process may be a sluggish one, so I’m only expecting partial sun as the shower chance becomes confined mainly to the higher terrain of southwestern NH and north central MA with a help of a bit more solar heating there. Any of these that pop up are gone by evening and we have a fairly tranquil night with broken to scattered clouds but patchy ground fog forming under light wind conditions and a small temp / dew point spread. On Thursday, our wind flow will shift to southerly ahead of the next approaching trough, and a cloud / sun mix will give way to more clouds eventually, along with increasing shower opportunities due to a combination of an approaching trough from the west and more humid southerly air flow. This is most prominent Thursday night into part of Friday, until a cold front sweeps through from west to east during the day. Any sun on Friday can help enhance the shower activity with some thunder possible as well. Right now I don’t think we’ll see any severe storms. Timing of the front should allow a drying process to begin during the afternoon, first to the west (southwestern NH and central MA), lastly in southeastern areas (Cape Cod). Expect fair weather Saturday with lower dew point air, but still seasonably warm. Pop up showers in response to a trough of low pressure across northern New England should remain north of the WHW forecast area, so overall it looks like a nice beginning to the weekend at this point.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers until mid morning, tapering to sprinkles and patchy drizzle with areas of fog late morning on. Highs 67-74. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts near the coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated to scattered showers, except a couple periods of more widespread showers / downpours and possible thunder near the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew point in 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Early morning showers possible Cape Cod / Islands. An isolated shower may pop up southwestern NH and north central MA midday or afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling slowly toward 60. Wind NE to briefly N up to 10 MPH then variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds, with clouds becoming dominant later. Passing rain showers possible by late-day / evening. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, especially overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Fair weather holds for August 20. The August 21-24 time frame will find the region in a minor battle between Canadian dry air and a northwest flow and attempted pushes of warmer, more humid air in from the southwest. This may result in a couple of unsettled episodes interspersed with fair weather, and temperatures that are variable, but not that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Trends remain for a more persistent west and northwest flow than previously indicated which may continue to limit or even eliminate a hot weather threat and keep it on the drier side with just brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

A small area of high pressure brings drier air in today, but a lot of mid level moisture in place will mean the sky won’t be sunny all day. We’ll have a fair amount of mid level cloudiness to deal with, but with breaks and thin spots to allow sun at times, especially north of I-90, before it thickens up again by day’s end. Low pressure approaching from the west is going to try to pull a warm front through the region tonight and Tuesday, but as trends have been south on this, and it still looks that way, the front may never get north of the I-90 belt, if it even makes it that far, before being pushed back to the south. An initial thrust of moisture will bring fairly widespread showers with some embedded downpours and possible thunder overnight into Tuesday morning, basically the first 8 to 10 hours of Tuesday, before a break. If the frontal boundary makes it onto the SNE landmass, areas along and south of it stand the chance of some heavier showers/storms with possible severe weather later Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves by. A boundary position further south would mitigate the severe weather chance and just mean showers for a while. Either way, this frontal boundary will then pull adequately southeastward to allow drying and the return of fair weather for Wednesday. A cool pool above will ignite diurnal clouds but I still feel any shower threat will remain north of our region. Current timing suggests that the next trough and frontal system arrives after a fair weather daytime Thursday, and swings through quickly enough that a shower and limited thunderstorm threat takes place for a 12 to 15 hour period from about midnight Thursday night / Friday morning to mid afternoon Friday. The earlier timing would lessen the chance of stronger storms Friday due to lack of adequate solar heating, but if this system is a couple to a few hours slower, that chance would go up, and last longer. This will be something to monitor as we move through the week. Something we won’t be needing to monitor this week: hot weather. Temperatures so far this month are running generally 1 to 3 F below normal, and this lack-of-heat portion of the pattern will continue.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / partial sun. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog overnight, especially near the coast. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers and embedded thunderstorms possible in eastern areas early, then favoring areas south of I-90 later in the day. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60s. Wind SE-E up to 10 MPH except variable to S 5-15 MPH near the South Coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, favoring the South Coast region, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, especially overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

A low pressure trough will sit to the north of the region with a west northwest air flow out of Canada bringing dry weather and near seasonable temperatures for the August 19-20 weekend. The August 21-23 period will feature a little more of a battle between this drier northwesterly flow and an attempt by warmer, more humid air to push back in from the southwest, which can bring some unsettled weather if the boundary is nearby. Favoring a drier scenario over wetter as the northwest flow should win out.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Trends are for a more persistent west and northwest flow than previously indicated which may continue to limit or even eliminate a hot weather threat and keep it on the drier side with just brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

A cold front will slide off the coast by midday today. This front will produce additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms east of I-95 in general, mainly southeastern MA. Behind this front, drier air will work in, but there’s just enough instability left behind the front that the “mostly fair” weather cumulus clouds that pop up can grow adequately to produce a few showers here and there as the afternoon goes on, even as late as sunset. However, the coverage of that activity will be very low – not enough to worry about scrapping outdoor plans, but just enough to keep an eye on the radar “just in case”. Tonight, cooler, dry air moves in and you’ll notice it if you’re outside or have the windows open. While clouds thwarted many folks’ view of the peak night of Perseid meteors late last night / early this morning, tonight, while there will be a lower meteor count, viewing conditions will improve if you want to catch the end stage of the show. Again, best time to see them is after midnight, facing N & NE, away from light pollution. Monday will be a nice mid August day with a sun/cloud mix and low humidity. We’ll have diurnal cumulus clouds pop up in response to solar heating and cool air aloft, and also some higher clouds will start to move in during the afternoon ahead of the next approaching low pressure area. As the small high pressure area that gives us our nice Monday moves away, low pressure will head for northern New England via the Great Lakes, and its warm front will bring heavier clouds and a round of showers late Monday night / early Tuesday. Some heavier thunderstorms may occur toward the South Coast with this where it will be more unstable with more moisture available. Tuesday during the day we should spend some time in the warm sector behind a warm front and ahead of a cold front, but it looks like clouds will be dominant so I’m not expecting full destabilization of the atmosphere enough to cook up big thunderstorms. It looks like a more general shower set-up with embedded heavier downpours and storms possible. It’s also possible that the frontal boundary doesn’t make all that much progress northward and a wave of low pressure forming along it then pulls it back to the south. This set-up would result in my forecast temperatures below being too high. Based on that, keep in mind that if this looks like a more likely scenario for the next update, that temperature forecast may be noticeably lower than it is now. I’ll do a finer-tune on this outlook for tomorrow’s update. Shower activity may linger into Tuesday evening as the trough will be sluggish to depart. Wednesday, we’re back into drier air with a sun/cloud mix, and right now I think any pop up showers will stay north of the WHW forecast area. Thursday should start sunny but may end with clouds as the next disturbance approaches from the west, but not a bad day either. And we continue to keep heat generally at bay. You’ll see no 90+ in this forecast.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorm morning and midday, favoring areas east of I-95 and south of I-90, diminishing from west to east. Slight chance of isolated showers during the afternoon and evening. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Heavier showers and some thunder possible, especially near South Coast. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Medium range model disagreement always makes forecasting this period with the help of guidance “fun”. Right now I’m leaning toward a faster flow pattern with a shower / thunderstorm chance the first half of August 18 followed by a drying trend, fair weather much of the August 19-20 weekend but possibly ending unsettled with the next disturbance moving in, then fair weather returning again to end the period. Some guidance wants to bring heat in while other guidance says Canadian air will be more dominant. Splitting the difference for now with a forecast of near to slightly above normal temperatures but the opportunity for brief heat shot later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

A weaker westerly flow with near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures for late August.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

The weekend’s weather is not going to be bad at all. The “interruption” potential is there, but really only in a short time window. A trough of low pressure will generate strong thunderstorms in NY State today and some of them may reach far western New England toward or around sunset, and others may kick off in western New England ahead of this toward evening. This area will move eastward, but with diurnal support needed and being lost, they will weaken, with showers and a few storms reaching western portions of the WHW forecast area (west of Worcester) after 8PM and any remains reaching eastern portions of the forecast area after 10PM. After that just some lingering showers and maybe a renegade thunderstorm can be around overnight as a cold front approaches and moves into the region. As far as viewing the peak hours of the Perseid meteor shower late tonight / early Sunday (midnight to daybreak), it’ll be a hit and miss prospect with variable cloud cover, and the threat of passing showers. The cold front will be right in the I-95 belt Sunday morning to midday when a few more downpours and storms can be generated, but then the front will move offshore during midday and afternoon, with a more tranquil finish to Sunday. Humidity levels will be coming up today, but not to excessive levels, peaking tonight and Sunday morning, before dropping off a little later Sunday. A small area of high pressure brings fair weather for Monday, but high clouds will already be moving in ahead of the next low pressure system, destined to make Tuesday an unsettled day. This will happen as its warm front brings one round of showers in the early hours of Tuesday, and a trough / cold front combo brings a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms during the day. Timing / coverage / intensity still need to be worked out and I’ll attempt to provide more detail on that on the next blog post. That system pulls away, replaced by a mild to warm and drier air mass for Wednesday with very nice mid August weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising to 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers / thunderstorms, highest chance southern NH to central MA evening. Patchy ground fog late. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorm morning and midday, diminishing from west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then some clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

A drier overall regime with a westerly air flow dominating. One disturbance brings a shower and thunderstorm chance late August 17 to early August 18 with another shot around August 20. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

A weaker westerly flow with near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures for late August.