DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure over the region early today slides offshore during the next 24 hours and sits there for a couple days after that, while a weak upper low over our area pulls out of the region today. Meanwhile a broad trough of low pressure will approach the Northeast from the west late this week, crossing the region this weekend. This is the large scale picture. What does that mean for our day to day weather? It translates to today being similar to yesterday with lots of sun and pleasant feeling air, a touch warmer than yesterday for some areas but still manageable humidity levels. Those humidity levels bump up a bit more, along with the temperature, on Thursday. A cold front will approach the region in the evening bringing more clouds in but this front will be dissipating as it loses support and may only cause a passing shower in the pre-dawn hours of Friday. That day itself will be even warmer with even higher humidity, and there can be a passing shower or t-storm in a few locations, but most of the day will be rain-free, and many areas will see nothing at all. The warmth and humidity continue elevated into the start of the weekend, with Saturday being another such day. A stronger cold front will cross the region, but this may not happen until sometime Saturday night or even early Sunday morning as the trend for this to occur has been with slower timing. That front will bring our best shot at showers and a few thunderstorms in the region, but it may be only for a relatively short period of time and not particularly beneficial as we continue to see our region having an increased need for rain after a dry summer. What the front will do is deliver cooler, less humid air by the end of the weekend, though clouds may be stubborn to completely let go of our region on Sunday, so I can’t forecast a completely sunny day at this point.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 74-81, coolest along the coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87 except 70s South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88, except cooler South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower possible early, favoring eastern areas. Highs 70-77. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Canadian high pressure builds in with fair, cool weather early next week, then sinks slowly southward with continued fair weather with still-cool nights but warmer afternoons mid to late week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

At mid month we watch a battle between renewed Canadian high pressure from the north and a frontal boundary with areas of low pressure to the south. Leaning toward domination by the former, with a dry pattern persisting here with near to below normal temperatures. This does not mean we cannot get a period of warmer, more humid weather including shower chances. Will monitor trends.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure slides offshore and provides continued fair weather with a warming trend through midweek. However there is still some upper troughing in the area that will allow some diurnal cloud development each day. We’ll also see batches of high and mid level clouds scoot across the sky this morning and again tonight, and some increase in clouds from an approaching frontal system later Thursday. As we get to Friday and Saturday we’ll find ourselves in a more humid southwesterly air flow with one front washing out as it tries to move in on Friday, causing only a few showers around there region that day, and a second front pushing through at some point Saturday, timing uncertain, with an additional shower chance. At this point, coverage of shower activity looks rather limited and much of the time looks rain-free.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 74-81. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers including the slight chance of a thunderstorm. Dew point 60+. Highs 76-83. Lows 61-68. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Clouds and a slight shower chance lingers into September 7 but with a cooling / drying trend. High pressure builds in with dry, cooler weather early next week, then sinks to the south with a slight warm-up midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Modest warm-up early period then a cooling trend follows. Unclear on unsettled potentials but leaning toward two brief chances in an otherwise mainly dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Today is the first day of autumn, but also the last day of summer, but also neither of those! Do you want to figure that out or do I have to explain it? Skip these next several lines if you already know exactly what I mean, or keep reading if you do not: Today is September 1, which is the first day of “meteorological fall” (September 1 thru November 30), and also the last day of “summer” in the tourism sense since it’s the final day of Labor Day Weekend, or just “Labor Day”, which marks the end of the “summer season” for people who do the majority of their long weekends and vacations between Memorial Day and Labor Day. However, it’s not actually the last day of summer or the first day of fall in an astronomical sense, marked by the occurrence of the autumnal equinox, which this year takes place on September 22 at 2:19 p.m. EDT. I’ll leave the decision up to you whether the day of the equinox is the last day of summer, the first day of fall, both (or neither – haha). Now that we have that straightened out, let’s move onto the weather! Today, “the first day of September”, Labor Day, will be a nice day, but we will have a mixture of sun and clouds. The clouds will come in 2 forms – a shield of high clouds fanning across our sky from a low pressure system well to our south that will not do any more to our region than this, and the development of some fair-weather cumulus clouds during the midday and afternoon hours. So it will be a less sunny day than yesterday, but still a nice one, with seasonably mild air and comfortably low humidity. Tuesday through Thursday will feature rain-free weather with an area of high pressure at the surface drifting overhead then offshore, so we experience a gradual warm-up as we head into and through midweek. However, weak upper level low pressure still means that cooler air aloft will allow for the daily development of diurnal cumulus clouds, though none of these will grow enough to produce any shower activity in our area. Friday, a stronger, more humid southerly air flow and the approach of a frontal system and trough from the west means there is the potential for some shower activity, but right now rainfall looks more hit & miss, and not too widespread or long-lasting at any one location. The day will remind you, however, that it is still technically summer (but only in an astronomical sense, not in a meteorological one or a tourism one – haha sorry, had to). 😉

TODAY (LABOR DAY): A sun / cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers / slight chance of a thunderstorm. Dew point 60+. Highs 76-83. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Warmth and higher humidity continues to start the weekend on Saturday (September 6) with a chance of a shower or t-storm ahead of a cold front. Behind the front comes lower humidity to finish the weekend on Sunday (September 7) but some clouds may linger, limiting the sunshine somewhat. High pressure builds in with fair weather during the first half of next week, while we watch offshore unsettled weather once again likely stay offshore. Temperatures early to middle of next week average near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

A modest warm-up with mainly fair weather. Watching 2 potentials for unsettled weather but favor a better shot with the last one late period. Otherwise, a generally dry pattern dominates.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

The holiday weekend rolls on and fair weather will be the theme. The more substantial cloud area from the upper low moved across our region last night and has cleared out / dissipated. Today as we finish up August, while high pressure has influence on our weather, an upper low hangs around and this will trigger the development of diurnal cumulus clouds again, more numerous to the north and west, less so to the south and east, so the sun will share the sky with fair weather clouds as we move through the day. These will develop again Monday to a lesser extend, but offshore low pressure will toss its high clouds shield, at least in part, across our sky from the south to north during the day, so that can filter / limit the sun a bit as we welcome September. That system otherwise will remain offshore early in the week as high pressure builds in and we undergo a modest warm-up which lasts through the middle of the week. While Tuesday and Wednesday feature plenty of sun, Thursday’s sun may become filtered to limited due to an increase in a variety of clouds from the south ahead of the next trough.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): A sun / cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

September 5 is humid, mild, and showery with a southerly air flow, a disturbance moving through from the south and a front approaching from the west. The September 6-7 weekend transitions back to cooler / drier, but it may be a slow process at first with a cold front still moving through the region at the start of the weekend with higher humidity and a shower / thunderstorm chance. Don’t expect a return to sunny conditions as the aforementioned front on September 6 and a secondary trough on September 7 add some clouds to the mix – refinement of this forecast to come as we get closer to it. Fair, cool, dry weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Medium range odds favor the best shot at showery weather mid period, but otherwise a mainly dry pattern with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

It’s Labor Day Weekend, and 2/3 of it occur in August, a month that has had a theme of coolish and dry weather, and this weekend will continue that. While high pressure over the Great Lakes slowly builds eastward toward and into New England during the next 3 days, we will start out with upper level low pressure over our region, which will gradually shift eastward and lose influence. The presence of the upper low represents chilly air aloft that will trigger the development of diurnal cumulus clouds each of these days, most prolific today with a trend for fewer Sunday and fewer still Monday. Additionally, a trough swinging around the upper low will drive some additional cloudiness into our region this evening, but without any rain… All things considered, this will be a pretty nice holiday weekend with slightly below normal temperatures (coolest today, mildest Monday), no rainfall, and comfortably low humidity levels. High pressure will drift offshore Tuesday and Wednesday with continued fair weather, along with a warming trend.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix with a trend toward more clouds. Highs 69-76. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds evening. Decreasing clouds overnight. Fog patches interior low elevations overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then partly cloudy late morning on. Highs 70-77. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

A southerly air flow develops September 4 & 5 with fair weather to start, but followed by a decent chance for showers with a combination of moisture from the south and a frontal system from the west. Expectations are for this to move beyond the region but another upper low to cross the area during the September 6-7 weekend with cooler, dry weather, but not completely sunny either day. High pressure builds in with dry, bright weather September 8, based on current expecting timing of systems.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

A mid period interlude of more moist southerly air flow and shower chances in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

A cold front will move into and across the region slowly today through this evening. After a few showers being around this morning, up to a few rounds of more widespread showers will occur this afternoon and evening. While lower in coverage, a few thunderstorms can occur, with brief strong wind gusts and small hail a possibility with any of the stronger cells. This would be isolated with most areas not seeing storms of this magnitude. Labor Day Weekend is going to feature fair, comfortable weather, but and upper level trough moving through will trigger diurnal cloud development daily – a little less with each passing day – but a very nice weekend overall with high temps in the 70s and low humidity levels, and not too much wind. High pressure remains in control as an area of low pressure, as suspected previously, passes well offshore to our southeast during Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers around early into mid morning, then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms afternoon. Highs 71-78. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 52-59. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure remains in control through the middle of next week with a modest warm-up until a cold front brings a shower chance about September 5 followed by a drier, cooler first weekend of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Mainly dry weather is favored until mid to late period when there’s a shower chance with a passing frontal system. Temperatures variable but not too far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

High pressure to our south slides to the east today, introducing a southwest to south wind, while some high clouds stream across the sky to filter the otherwise full sun especially from mid morning into the afternoon hours. Tonight, dew points rise and cloud cover increases with a more established southerly air flow ahead of a cold front. This front is going to take its time crossing our region from west to east Friday and Friday evening, initially with a few light showers around as the more humid air arrives, then with a round or two (or maybe three) of showers and potential thunderstorms Friday afternoon into evening. While I am not expecting any severe storms, at least in a regional or widespread sense, a couple storms can be on the stronger side with gusty winds and small hail both potential storm products. Keep this small but present threat in mind especially if traveling or doing any outdoor activities. I do think the front will clear the region quickly enough to eliminate the shower threat prior to dawn on Saturday. Labor Day Weekend’s upper level pattern will feature an upper trough of low pressure crossing the region, gradually weakening and departing with time, while surface high pressure gains more control of our weather, the center of it staying off to our west and north for a good part of the time. This weather pattern is free of rain, but not free of daily diurnal cloud development, which should be at maximum Saturday and decrease Sunday and Monday. Humidity will be generally low and temperatures “in check”, near to slightly below normal for the 3-day period with coolest Saturday. All-in-all, not a bad Labor Day Weekend upcoming!

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 72-79. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.,

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 57-64. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light showers or drizzle possible early morning. Scattered to numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms afternoon. Highs 71-78. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 52-59. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure remains in control through the middle of next week with a modest warm-up until a cold front brings a shower chance about September 5 followed by a drier, cooler start to the first weekend of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Mainly dry weather is favored until late period when there’s a shower chance. Temperatures variable but not too far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final 5 days of August takes us 2/3 of the way into Labor Day Weekend. How’s the weather looking? Well, that’s the question this blog post attempts to answer. Before we get to the weekend, we have a trough of low pressure swinging through the area today, bringing a chance of a passing shower (low risk of a thunderstorm) to areas mainly north of I-90 during a few hour window this afternoon – generally around 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. from west to east. While many areas see little or nothing, a couple could experience a brief downpour, a rumble of thunder, and even small hail. This exits by evening and a fair, cooler night is ahead. A small area of high pressure pokes into the region Thursday which will have a bit more sun, but more clouds show up later ahead of the next trough, which will bring us another chance of showers and thunderstorms for more of the area Friday. While the day doesn’t look like a wet one from start to finish, there is certainly a better opportunity for more areas to see activity than will see it today. A little more refining of this wet weather threat comes in the next 2 updates, so check those out the next couple mornings! Heading into the weekend, the upper low driving Friday’s threat will hang around into early Saturday and can cause a brief shower in a few locations, but this may be largely a done deal by the time most people get up for the day, with just a sun/cloud mix to follow. Sunday looks sunnier with high pressure in more control and the upper low departed to the east.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 71-78. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower mainly far eastern areas early. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 52-59. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

High pressure remains in control through the middle of next week and leaning heavily toward a disturbance to the south remaining offshore, allowing for fair weather and a temperature moderation, until a frontal system from the west comes in with a shower / t-storm chance late week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

September 7 and 10 are the early target days for shower threats in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with temperatures variable, but not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)

This 5-day run takes us to the start of the Labor Day Weekend. We’ll have a drier, cooler air mass in place into midweek, but an upper low crossing the Northeast with colder air aloft allows diurnal cloud development today, so the sunny start will become a sun / cloud mix. Any showers that pop up today will do so in the mountains, north of our area. A trough passing through tonight brings a few more clouds and perhaps a quick-passing shower. Another will help tomorrow’s diurnal clouds grow enough to perhaps produce a few more showers later in the day. High pressure nosing in from the southwest means fewer clouds and no shower chance for Thursday, but another disturbance swings through on Friday with another shot at showers, and potential thunderstorms in a more unstable atmosphere. The bulk of this will be out of our way by the time we get to Saturday, but upper low pressure lingers so expect a sun / cloud mix and a slight chance of a passing shower – though most areas likely remain dry.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Sun / cloud mix afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible in the afternoon, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 71-78. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

Upper level low pressure departs and high pressure builds in with fair weather for the balance of Labor Day Weekend (August 31 / September 1). Watching a disturbance go by that probably stays offshore while our weather continues fair and turns slightly warmer through the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

A front brings a shower chance early in the period then a return to fair weather. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

We enter the final stretch of August (and Meteorological Summer) this week and we’ll have some unsettled weather to deal with, but still some nice weather too. Sorting it out, we get this for our set of expectations for the next 5 days: Today, it starts foggy in some areas in response to higher dew point air and low temperatures matching those higher dew points. The fog will dissipate by mid morning as the temperature rises and separates itself from the dew point. Meanwhile, low pressure passing by to the east is spreading some of its rain over Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket, but this will depart over the next few hours. Otherwise, we’ll have a cold front moving across the region from west to east today into this evening, and this will trigger isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, but I don’t expect this activity to be widespread with full coverage, so some areas will not see anything from that front itself, which exits the coast tonight and introduces lower dew point air and a cooler air mass to hang around through midweek. During this time, however, we’ll have an upper level low pressure over the Northeast including New England. This will host a series of troughs moving through it that will bring at least some cloudiness to our region, and a couple opportunities for showers as well. Right now it looks like sun becomes mixed with diurnal clouds Tuesday but most shower activity initially stays to our north, but a trough moving through sometime that night can bring a passing shower. Wednesday, a repeat except this time pop up showers may occur in our region, especially north of I-90, during the afternoon hours. Thursday, the upper low relaxes a little so I expect a little more sun, but still some clouds, and this time no shower threat. A sharper trough moves in on Friday bringing more clouds along with the threat of showers and thunderstorms. It’ll take a few days to work out the finer details of Friday’s weather. Temperatures for the 5-day period will average out a little below normal.

TODAY: Foggy areas until mid morning, otherwise variably cloudy. Showers Cape Cod / Islands into mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms west to east across the area during the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable around 10 MPH Cape Cod and Islands early, otherwise SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower possible eastern areas. Clearing overnight but patchy fog forming. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Most sun early, then a sun/cloud mix with clouds more dominant. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible in the afternoon, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 71-78. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny early then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

Upper level low pressure hangs around to start the Labor Day Weekend but a stronger push of high pressure behind a disturbance will bring dry weather back as the upper low gradually weakens and finally departs. By the end of the weekend high pressure will be in control and extend its influence into early next week with fair weather and a modest warm-up. There is still some guidance indicating unsettled weather around September 2 so I’ll keep an eye on this as there will be some low pressure to our south and a pattern that isn’t incapable of allowing some moisture from it up this way.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Watching for a mid period disturbance with briefly unsettled weather, otherwise the pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures near to slightly below normal (warmer start / cooler finish).

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

Rough surf and rip currents gradually decrease during the day today along the coast, but are still a factor, so use caution if you have beach/boating plans, especially along east-facing shores. This is still ongoing in the wake of Erin, which itself is long gone in the North Atlantic. It can take up to a few days for ocean surface impacts to settle in the wake of these passing storms. Weather-wise, we’re looking at a pretty decent Sunday – fairly warm with humidity a bit higher (noticeable to the most sensitive folks) as high pressure sits offshore and a cold front approaches from the west, resulting in a southwesterly air flow. At the same time, to the south is a low pressure area (non-tropical) off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will be heading north northeast, and the combination of it and the approaching front will change our sunny early-day sky into one with some increasing cloud coverage. Unsettled weather will arrive overnight and last through Monday from both systems, although the offshore low will only clip Cape Cod and the Islands with some steadier rain for a few hours – though beneficial as drought exists there. The rest of us will have to wait to see what kind of shower and possible thunderstorm activity the cold front can produce as it moves across our region fairly slowly during the day and evening hours. Monday night, the front clears the region and the low to the east departs via the Gulf of Maine, and Tuesday we’ll see fair weather return along with lower humidity and cooler air, though a sun/cloud mix will be our sky as we have some chilly air aloft with the passage of an upper trough of low pressure. Similar weather is expected Wednesday – a sun/cloud mix – with high pressure at the surface to our west but a trough moving over our area. Shower activity Tuesday and Wednesday should be confined to the mountain areas to our west and north so I expect dry weather here in the WHW forecast area. High pressure will nose into the region from the southwest with sunnier weather for Thursday but comfortable late August air.

TODAY: Sun dominates to start, clouds become more prevalent by late-day. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point climbs into the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible Cape Cod / Islands toward sunrise. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Early-morning rain potential Cape Cod / Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere – trend from west to east. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable around 10 MPH Cape Cod and Islands early, otherwise SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Shower potential evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 55-62 with similar dew points. Wind shifts to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Another trough moves through the region late next week (August 29) with a shower and thunderstorm chance, but uncertain how widespread they’ll be. High pressure builds in for Labor Day Weekend with fair, pleasant weather. Fair weather is expected to continue for the end of the period with a modest warm-up. There is some medium range guidance that has inconsistently indicated unsettled weather September 1 and/or 2. I lean to dry weather for this period but will keep an eye on trends there as sometimes guidance fails to pick up on disturbances at this range and you get inconsistent simulations.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure brings dry weather to the region at least into mid period. Watching later in the period for some potential for at least briefly unsettled weather, but low confidence on that idea. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

Last night’s high tide was the most intrusive for east-facing shores while Hurricane Erin was still relatively close (but not that close) coinciding with the higher astronomical tide of the new moon. As we progress through the weekend, the tides and surf will ease along the New England coastline. Weather-wise, it’s going to be a great weekend as high pressure slides off the Atlantic Seaboard and provides a warmer south to southwest air flow. Humidity levels will begin to increase on Sunday due to a southerly air flow. A cold front will move into the region and take its time crossing it during Monday, when there is a good chance of showers and the potential for thunderstorms, somewhat dependent on the availability of fueling sunshine. Low pressure will miss us to the east during this time, and we lose out on the potential for a more widespread, beneficial rainfall. High pressure builds back toward the region via Canada and the Great Lakes behind the front on Tuesday, but an upper trough will help some clouds pop up during the day (any showers stay to the north). Fair, comfortable weather continues into midweek.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 but 73-80 coast, coolest Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine dominates much of day but clouds increase later on. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point climbs into the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

A frontal boundary and disturbance brings a shower chance August 29. Otherwise, fair weather will be dominant. Temperatures near to below normal, although somewhat variable.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

The September 2 unsettled potential trends toward less of a chance, with the pattern looking rain-free much of this period until another disturbance brings a wet weather chance end of period. Temperatures fairly close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

Our “visual” of Hurricane Erin, which is nearly non-tropical, is a shield of high clouds in the southeastern sky (overhead of you’re on Outer Cape Cod), early today, but will depart seaward during the day. The indirect impact in the form of larger ocean swells and rough surf has about peaked out now, and will gradually diminish today into the weekend. Our weather will be dry today, Saturday, and through the daylight hours of Sunday into evening. Today will still be on the cooler side with a northeasterly air flow between Erin and a high pressure area to our west, but not quite as cool as yesterday. The weekend will feature a warm-up, with increasing humidity by Sunday, as high pressure shifts overhead then offshore. An approaching cold front will be slow enough to hold back its offering of showery weather until late Sunday night (early hours of Monday) through the daytime hours Monday. Additional low pressure that may have added moisture for more beneficial rainfall appears that it will stay offshore and not add to our rain potential. Tuesday, that system is gone and high pressure builds our way from the Great Lakes, but upper level low pressure will result in a sun/cloud mix while a few pop-up showers likely stay across the mountains to our north and west. That day will feature the return of cooler air and low humidity.

TODAY: High clouds over Outer Cape Cod early, otherwise dominant sun. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH Cape Cod, including higher gusts during the morning, shifting to N and gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind N to NW under 10 MPH.,

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point climbs into the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

Timing is a little slower in this range that previously indicated. The only unsettled weather potential is a shower threat with a front on August 29. Otherwise, fair weather dominates. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Eyeing an unsettled threat about September 2 otherwise mainly dry weather with mostly seasonable temperatures expected to start September.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

Today’s sky will feature some cloudiness, but it won’t be a bad weather day. Initially, lingering clouds from yesterday’s unsettled weather sit mainly south of I-90 while another batch of clouds wheeled in off the ocean to the north and will drift southwestward across a portion of the region this morning. Meanwhile, the high cloud shield from Hurricane Erin well to our south southeast will begin to at least partially overspread our sky during the day (may lead to a nice sunset later for at least southeastern MA / RI). This cloud shield will be at maximum tonight before retreating eastward Friday as Erin makes its closest pass early then accelerates away later (same idea as described on yesterday’s update). No changes to the expectation of larger ocean swells and rough surf – high rip current risk for anyone in the water – so advice is not to go in far enough to be impacted by those if you are at the shore. Cooler than average temps continue today and Friday, though today will be the cooler of those two. Then we get a nice weekend with a warm-up. Humidity will be low Saturday along with light wind and some light coastal sea breezes. Sunday’s humidity will be moderate with a stronger southerly wind developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Timing on this front still looks late enough to hold the shower and potential thunderstorm chance off until Sunday evening or night, and then Monday will be an unsettled day as that front moves through and additional moisture comes up from the south.

TODAY: Patchy low and middle clouds mixed with sun in the morning. Sunshine dimmed at times, especially southeast, by increasing high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Considerable high cloudiness. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas especially south of Boston including higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Limited sun early with lots of high clouds, then increasing sun. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH Cape Cod, including higher gusts during the morning, shifting to N and gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point climbs into the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

Turning dry and cooler August 26-27. Next disturbance / front may bring a shower or t-storm August 28 before fair weather returns later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure dominates with fair weather and modest warm-up August 31 & September 1. Unsettled weather about September 2 before fair, mild weather returns.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Today’s weather will be cool and mainly cloudy as a disturbance from the northwest moves through the region and undergoes a minor interaction with Hurricane Erin, which is still quite far to our south southeast today. The initial batch of rain aims more north of I-90 this morning to early afternoon, with the focus then shifting more to the south from midday onward. Any rainfall we get right now is beneficial as the region has had quite a dry summer. Temperatures today will run considerably below average – many double-digit departures, so keep that in mind as well if you have outdoor plans. A summary of Hurricane Erin’s main impact on our region… Large long-period ocean swells and rough surf, increasing today, peaking Thursday through early Friday, diminishing later Friday into the weekend. The other will be some gusty wind, especially across southeastern MA, later Thursday into Friday as the storm makes its closest pass during a time its wind field expands significantly (normal for a tropical cyclone in the process of transitioning to post-tropical). There will be no impact from rainfall. We’ll see the high cloud shield from the storm spread over at least a portion of the sky during Thursday before departing during Friday, which will filter / dim the sun Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. This set-up does leave the potential for a spectacular sunset, however, on Thursday evening – something to watch for if you’re a photographer or just like to observe. During all of this Thursday and Friday we’ll have dry weather, and while it won’t be as chilly as today, temperatures will still run significantly below normal on Thursday and slightly below normal on Friday. Our weekend will feature mainly dry weather and a warm-up but with tolerable humidity, only a little more humid Sunday, felt by the most sensitive people. An approaching cold front looks a little slower based on recent guidance trends, so I’ll hold off the previously-forecast shower and thunderstorm threat during Sunday to the evening and nighttime hours on this update, but keep an eye on that for any other trend changes.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 61-68. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Some rain lingers especially south evening. Chance of some drizzle and fog eastern coastal areas during the evening. Lows 54-61. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Patchy low and middle clouds mixed with sun in the morning. Sunshine dimmed at times, especially southeast, by increasing high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts likely.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Considerable high cloudiness. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas especially south of Boston including higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Limited sun early with lots of high clouds, then increasing sun. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH Cape Cod, including higher gusts during the morning, shifting to N and gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible evening or nighttime. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

A slower-moving frontal boundary and some potential additional moisture from the south brings a better chance of showery weather for August 25. Turning dry and cooler August 26-27. Next disturbance / front may bring a shower or t-storm August 28 before fair weather returns later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

Indications for the August 30-31 weekend are for fair, dry, cool to mild weather, with continued fair weather for Labor Day (September 1) and a warm-up heading toward the middle of the first week of September. While a dry pattern is good news for outdoor plans, it’s not good news for building drought in the region.