Friday October 7 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)

Big difference yesterday when we got that west and southwest breeze with high pressure, coming after a stretch of cool, damp, unsettled weather. Almost felt like mid summer for a bit there, but you can’t fool us, mother nature! We were paying attention to that ever-lowering sun angle and earlier sunset time! But that aside, we can get some very nice weather at this time of year too, as yesterday showed us, and today will again for the most part. Today we deal with early clouds from a departing weak disturbance, but go back to lots of sun for several hours, and another warm-up to 70+ for many, but now it’s limited. A cold front charges across the region late in the day and this evening, bringing a few more clouds and perhaps a passing rain shower to some areas, but for all areas a fresh Canadian cool air mass arrives behind the front overnight and for our weekend. Although this time, the cool air will not be accompanied by overcast skies or an onshore flow with wet weather. This time it comes with bright sun, passing clouds, dry air, a gusty breeze (especially Saturday) but the classic feel of New England autumn. So while you’ll need an extra layer or two, you can still go out and enjoy your weekend autumn activities if you desire! In fact, some areas that see the wind drop off adequately and outside of urban and coastal influence may see their first frost Saturday night / Sunday morning. Technically, this should fall shy of being a freeze, but you know at this time of year your time is limited before that comes… Look for the nice weather to continue into early next week too, but as high pressure slips off to the south and east, we’ll see temperature moderation. There will be an old frontal boundary though that slides through the region on Monday and while I don’t expect this to “mess up” the weather in terms of rainfall, it may help put a few more clouds in the sky on that day. Another high pressure area in eastern Canada doesn’t look like it will be strong enough this time to push that boundary cleanly though and it will just dissipate over the region as that high just joins the one sitting to the south. Long story short, after our recent unsettled spell, it’s back to a dry stretch. We’ll continue to see our foliage colors coming in especially with the cooler days / chilly nights, but you still have to head north if you want peak color. Although we seem to be running earlier than the recent average, our turn for peak color is still a little way off…

TODAY: Early clouds, then lots of sun, then late-day clouds with a slight chance of a quick-passing rain shower especially west and north of Boston. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Early clouds, then clearing. Lows 39-46, coolest interior hills. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost in sheltered lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior low elevations, 38-43 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing especially interior lower elevations.

SUNDAY: Sunshine except a few patchy clouds return during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

High pressure offshore, trough to the west but not close enough for unsettled weather yet means a fair and mild October 12. Timing of next trough and frontal system looks like later October 13 to early or middle of October 14 which brings some unsettled weather (rain showers) and mild at first, then the arrival of a new cool air mass. This system will be progressive and the early call is for another very nice weekend for October 15-16 but on the cooler side again.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Milder trend early period, mid period rain shower threat, then hints of the coldest air of the season so far arriving before the end of the period as a progressive autumn pattern rolls on with the mean trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast.

13 thoughts on “Friday October 7 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. Big differences showing up between GFS & ECMWF for days 7-8.

    GFS is much more progressive with our wet weather threat late Oct 13 to Oct 14, similar to my discussion above. The ECMWF model is far more amplified with the front not even here yet on Oct 15.

    This forecast has major implications on some outdoor plans I have. We’ll see how it goes…

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