DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)
The back-door front that cooled eastern areas significantly yesterday has gone back to the northeast and opens the door for an early-season blast of summer heat today. While you’ll notice higher humidity with dew points generally 60+ across the region, a wind shift from southwest to west may drive them back down along the coastal plain this afternoon, but when this happens we often see a temperature spike, so some of the higher readings may also occur in these areas today. The other thing to eye is the potential for scattered to clustered thunderstorms erupting from the combination of daytime heating and an approaching trough. The best shot at this will be west of I-95 and they should be fading fairly quickly as they move eastward into the I-95 region and beyond by the end of the day. Where they are strongest, damaging wind gusts and hail are possible, but such occurrences should be isolated. Tonight is a quiet but very warm night. A cold front sweeps across the region Wednesday, its timing late enough so that it’s very warm (borderline hot) and somewhat humid, but early enough so that the shower and thunderstorm threat comes earlier and is focused more east of I-495 and from the I-90 belt southward. We need to watch closely because even one hour slower on the front would allow the chance of showers and storms to be further west and north initially. Once the front comes through the temp and dew point will reduce and Wednesday night won’t be nearly as “summer-feeling” as tonight will be. The front slows just off the South Coast and a quick-moving wave of low pressure can bring brief showers to the South Coast region early Thursday, otherwise look for a drier, cooler day with some lingering clouds then increasing sunshine. High pressure builds in Friday with fair weather, but departs as we get to the start of the weekend, at which time a wave of low pressure will approach from the southwest. This means increasing clouds for Saturday with eventually a rain chance, first to the west and south, then expanding north and east. Timing will be fine-tuned for the arrival of the wet weather as we get closer to the weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Late-day shower and thunderstorm chances are highest west of I-95 into the I-95 belt. Highs 69-76 Islands / Cape Cod, 77-84 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore (southern portion), 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Shower and thunderstorm potential from late morning through afternoon, with highest thunderstorm potential I-95 belt southeastward. Highs 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands, 73-80 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible, especially near any storms.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing north, clouds linger south. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouds and a shower chance South Coast early, otherwise increasing sun. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by increasing high clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.
SATURDAY: Thickening clouds. Rain arrives southwest to northeast from midday through afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)
The middle day of the Memorial Day Weekend (May 24) looks fairly wet as low pressure passes by to the south, followed by improvement but still a shower chance under upper level low pressure on Memorial Day. Upper low hangs around with a pop-up shower chance May 26 and/or May 27, then dry weather later in the period. Overall trend on temperatures is seasonable to slightly cooler than normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)
Leaning cooler then average, drier overall, but not without at least a brief unsettled threat or two.
Thanks, as always, TK !
Wordle: 5 (I think we have 2s and 3s coming today, maybe even the elusive 1)
I’ll guess 95F at Logan.
Nice. 2s and 3s you say. I don’t know about that. We’ll know soon enough. Well I guess at least a 3.
BTW would not surprise me to see Logan hit 97. Not only does the west wind help with the temperature anyway, but it also blows a lot of building and asphalt heated air right over to the sensor at Logan.
Agreed !!
Its that weekend overachieving makes me think our numbers or, even, as you say, an outside shot of 97F.
Good morning and thank you TK
73 up from 69. Dp 63
Ocean: 52
Wordle: 4
My o/u for today 94
Eric had 96 for Boston.
I Have so many trees and shrubbery around, we get transportation, so I expect to be under whatever Logan reports. We shall see.
Nice job with Wordle, JpDave !
Thanks Tom
As you say’let’s see if any 2s and 3s are scored today.
850 mb temps 19-20C all day.
That supports “about” 96
DING DING DING
We have reached 80 here already.
79 at the airport with dp 64
We have an 82 at Fitchburg already,
I managed to get 2 of our ACs installed yesterday.
Good to go for today. 🙂
Wordle in 4 today.
Here’s an interesting and well-made video explaining some of the “magic” behind modern weather radar images:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAYsncEeA6Y
Nice and welcome to the 4 car.
Fascinating video. Very well done. I don’t have time to finish it so I will have to get back to you. Thank you for sharing.
Nice 4 wording, Tom, JPD and SClarke
A FB friend who constantly has 3 and 4 failed. He had last four letters in correct location from guess 2 through 6 and never found first letter.
Permission to join JPD and SClarke please
Wordle 4
Welcome aboard. Nice job.
❤️
Thank you, TK. Warm overnight low of 64
78 now
Good grief, it has jumped to 84 here and it is not quite 9 AM.
Thanks Tk . 77 in pembroke
Thank you TK!
Joining the party in car 4 today for Wordle. Hope that car has a/c!
It does!! Nice and cool in here. Welcome aboard!!
Wow. Lots of 4s. Excellent
Another 4 here, coming aboard!
All Aboard and welcome!
Yay!!!
84 here and 84 at Logan. Logan has WSW wind.
Thanks, TK!
84
86 here now and also at the airport and at Norwood.
I see an 88 at Fitchburg.
I like the weather bug app for temperature. Let’s see how close it comes as it has me at 90 at 1pm, 85 at 11am & 88 at noon. 82 as of now .
Obviously, the temps are impressive, but I am really surprised by the dps hanging in at 63F to 66F.
Maybe the atmosphere mixes down drier air with the higher sun angle later on.
We are 82 with a 70 DP per nws
I’ll go with 97 for my over under
Thanks, TK.
Logan is now at 88. The city is heating up and transporting that heat right to the Logan sensor. We are now lagging behind because of that.
We’re still hanging at 86.
Logan dp 66, here I have a reading of 68.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
I suppose some cloud cover is possible later on, but its clear when its sunny and there is any kind of land breeze, the temps are going to be at the very least, what the models project, but more likely higher.
Now, if anytime along the way, we get a big drenching that can sink into the ground, perhaps maybe then we won’t overachieve on temps. But, if we keep staying drier than avg, the temps will be overachieving.
Looks like CLEAR sailing sunshine-wise around these parts today.
We have our first 90 degree reading at Fitchburg.
DING DING DING
Logan is now at 90 just about 11AM.
How will that translate as we get to the maximum heating of the day?
Once again I am lagging 3 degrees behind for reasons I have stated several times. I am at 87. I usually begin to catch up
around 4 or 5 PM.
Logan dropped back to 89, but I see 91 at Fitchburg, Nashua and Manchester.
Weird.
Boston and Worcester have WSW winds, while Norwood
and points S and SW of there have SSW winds.
Not sure what is going on there, BUT IF the winds were to shift at Logan to SSW, the record high is no longer in the cards.
Great point.
That south coast boundary/effect.
Wonder if that could also pop an isolated storm in that vicinity of the partial wind direction, differential, a little convergence?
Well as the trough approaches, perhaps so????
Thanks TK! Hard not to be bumming about Memorial Day forecast while inside working all week. Bad timing
100% spot on.
88/64 here in Taunton West. (That’s what our Little League is called.)
East Taunton reporting 81 with a gusty, southerly wind.
That Southerly wind will hold down Maximum temperatures.
I now see a 93 at Manchester, NH
ONLY 88 here. 🙂 🙂 🙂
89 here
A few showers drifting across central VT and NH
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
WPC Surface map:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
Sure looks like quite a HEAT PUMP!
91 at Logan and it isn’t quite NOON yet.
89 here.
I believe a record was broken , true ??
I believe that for today’s date, the record is 90 and tomorrow the record is 91 If I remember correctly. All-time May record is 97, If we are going to be hot, let’s break that record.
Probably not likely to happen. We’ll see how the temperature responds in the next several hours.
https://ibb.co/fVzphKyP
Just made 90 here
Cindy saying Saturday looking better during the day , fingers crossed
Me too.
Yes I just saw your comment from last night thank you , any shot of after 5pm Tk as it’s a pretty big job & seeing if I can squeeze a tiny job before it .
93F at Logan as the wind changes to west.
This is how they maximize potential.
But now I see wind is SW at 17 mph. That would likely put a cap on the temperature unless it shifts back to more Westerly component.
1) Yes, 12z models against their previous runs coming around to high pressure holding bay against the rain Saturday and into Sunday. Cool though.
2) Lots of 93-96F’s in the Merrimack Valley.
Just west of Logan in Watertown is showing 96F, so if Logan gets another puff of wind from the due west ……..
sorry, 95F in Watertown.
93 in SE Sutton
My thermostat here at the house at 1 PM was at 96.
thermostat? or thermometer?
90 now; 91 earlier
93 here.
Now 96 at Logan with a DP 59.
DP was as high as 65 just awhile ago.
94 here in Quincy.
WEST wind
96. One degree shy of my over under. It was 97 in mendon
94 here
I’m thoroughly impressed with Logan’s 95F/96F and the other mid, even a few upper 90s.
Why ….. we haven’t really fully had a downs loping wind. That’s somewhere between W and WNW. Its been WSW, sometimes SW and an occasional W puff.
This has big implications for the summer.
104F ……… if that’s Boston’s all time record, it is very achievable under a 590-594 dm ridge and 850 mb temps of 20-22C, IF … we do not get some appreciable rain.
Saturday, Sunday and today with temp overachievement, its screaming.
Logan hit 97 to tie all-time May record.
94.5 here,
Unless, of course there is some kind of round error.
Wow! That means 98F is still in play to break the record. Plenty of daylight left.
JP outside thermometer was at 96. Currently at 100.8. Again ambient weather station
It is NOT 100.
I believe I topped out at 96F, 2 degrees over my O/U for today.
Logan has dropped to 95.
95 here as well
I had errands in Lexington and Burlington, and the car thermometer reading ranged between 95 and 98. Mercifully the A/C works.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Looking at the mesonet obs, unquestioned the wind is coming around to SW, if not SSW.
Some maritime influence from the south coast will slowly move northward.
Still very warm, but for example, Logan is “down” to 91F.
Since January 1, here are precip departures
Logan: -7.03”
Worcester: -3.56”
Hartford: -2.37”
Providence: -4.40”
Showing up so much in these last 4 days with respect to temp. The sun’s energy is losing very little to evaporation. It’s all going into heating the air.
Left Fall River where it was 85 and got back to Padanaram Village with a big sea breeze and temp at 70 with fog lurking off shore. This always fascinates me
Nice !
wind shifted to the South at Logan and temp dropped to 91
Nobody is 100 today. If you see a 100, it’s either a car thermometer over asphalt, or it’s a poorly-calibrated thermometer.
Max is 97 at Logan due to the perfect set-up of west wind and downslope drying. This was the only way they had a shot to exceed expectation.
We’re getting a great lesson again just there today about how wind direction makes all the difference.
I am currently watching the Hampton Beach web cam. The packed beach is about to be scattered by a thunderstorm moving in.
A pretty decent one that survived the trek Eastward even looked to intensify some as it approaches the coast. Interesting.
That is a quite a beach evacuation! It must be breezy based on the flapping tents and flying debris.
If I had been up there (and in charge) I’ve have made a loudspeaker announcement to clear the beach by 4 p.m. They were not going to escape. Thankfully, lightning production seems to be minimal. Otherwise, that’s a dangerous place to be out in the open right now.
looks like I topped out at 95 at my house. Plenty hot enough for me. I’ve been hiding out in AC just trying to get through thid day.
Same tomorrow.
Tomorrow falls several degrees shy of today’s highs.
The MPAS version of the RRFS-A is doing a better job with today’s convection in our area than the RRFS-A version that they stopped updating a few months ago. That’s good news.
HRRR handling it decently well.
3km NAM was a fail.
According to Ch. 7, the weekend system is trending drier.
According to one of the models, that’s the case.
No two global models have the same general solution on that system. There is no clear trend at this time.
https://weather.us/lightning/massachusetts/20260519-2045z.html
Not a ton, but enough where it’s occurring.
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KMHT&hours=72
Manchester, NH picked up a nice .27 from one of those thundershowers.
FTR … The ECMWF model was the first model to pick out today’s thunderstorm threat. It started to show it last Friday and never wavered.
Good to know.
I will try to remember this as we watch the models going forward this warm season.
Thank you !!
Still 94 here. I was out for a bit and it was like a blast furnace and that sun was blazing hot,
Thunderstorms approaching. DO they hold together???
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Seems to be a little more than what I saw on radar simulations during yesterday evening’s forecasts.
But then, we overachieved temp wise, so we must have easily met the convective temp parameters for the given conditions more than the models would have simulated for.
Seem to be getting stronger as they move Eastward. Looks like a reasonable chance they hold together to the coast. We shall see. I;ll have to run around closing windows. At least we have 2 rooms with no windows open, 🙂
Logan has popped back up to 95
The cell in Worcester county has been tagged as severe.
I continue to not understand. We are not in the warned area yet I keep getting notices that we are.
Lightning pro is picking up lightning 9.4 miles away
Thanks, TK.
Winds gusting to about 40 – 50 mph. and very dark. Sky got yellow now very dark. Loud thunder and thereis lightning. Just started pouring here in Sudbury. First big thunderstorm in awhile. A few wks. ago we had a thunderstorm, but not like this.
Awesome. Enjoy Rainshine. Always a treat to see you here
Try to make a heart. Using old compuer. Probably shuld be on my cell phone. But, thanks anyway, Vicki.
Sky is amazing. It’s brightning up to Northwest of here. Storm heding east.
Storm not over yet. Still thundering and more storms to west.
As of a couple of minutes ago we are also warned.
Lots of window rattling going on here 😀
Reports of a lot of trees down in both Sutton and Worcester.
A friend of mine in Maynard had her tree struck by lightning. I’ve just seen a picture of it.
Not surprised. We dropped 20 even degrees to 75
Wow, hope all is ok Vicki.
Thanks, TK.
Decent storms and rain in Boston.
While it hit 96F today, dewpoint wasn’t too bad. I was able to run errands I had to on foot – 2 miles or so.
From 1Degree.
HUGE jump up in power outages in the last 15 minutes. 87% of Milton without power & 11% within the city of Boston (47K)
Storms are just about a done deal. The last living t-storm is about to exit the South Shore.
Indeed.
Held together enough for a downpour, maybe a tenth of an inch and a couple rumbles of thunder.
Better than I thought was going to happen.
76F. Down about 20 degrees from today’s high.
Nice. We dropped 20 from temp at start of storm but 21 from our high too
Sea breeze storms down here in Sarasota. Within 2 hours when the sea breeze started moving inland the storms started and big time rain and lightning. This area and most of Florida is in severe drought conditions and needs the rain.
Boston is currently listing their high as 96.
It may be corrected up one to 97. Waiting to see…
Either way…
Since record keeping began there in 1972, there have only been 5 times in May when the high temperature has exceeded 95F. They are…
1880 (2 times that month), 1929, 1944, and 2026.
IF today is upgraded to 97, it will tie the all time May high temperature which was set on May 26 1880.
That thunderstorm only spiked up the dewpoints. Boston now at 69…Y-U-C-K!!!!
This HHH is way too early!!! 🙁
Except the temp is now 21 degrees lower. So it’s really not over the top.
Storms dropped tempbto 74 and rose dpbton70.
Yuck!!
We are 72 also but do has Been hovering at 70
All day
I was just outside. It’s so beautiful out there. We had a lit up anvil canopy from the setting sun, and now venus, the crescent moon, and jupiter make a fabulous view in the western sky!
The what moon 😉
It’s on the one side of the house I can’t see 🙁
Boston’s high is officially 96 today.
It’s a new record for the date, but does not tie the record for the all time May high of 97 set in 1880. Missed by 1 degree.
Won’t even come close to challenging it tomorrow. High of about 88 for Boston.