Friday August 28 2026 Forecast (7:54AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Last night I had a dream that I was helping somebody move today (and it was Saturday, and raining, and I had forecast a sunny day, and I remember leaning against the wall and saying “well, this is my worst forecast…like ever”) and then I woke up and it was cloudier than I forecast, but at least I did (and do) expect more cloudiness today than yesterday. I guess it could be worse! We have some stratus in the region now, and while that will largely dissipate and morph into passing fractocumulus and some larger cumulus later, we will also have a considerable amount of mid and high level clouds streaming up from the southwest today. All of this together means sunshine will be limited today. And with a front crossing the region add in the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms in the region during this afternoon. The front clears the region tonight and sets us up for a spectacular weekend as high pressure builds in Saturday, then slips offshore Sunday. I now expect a second area of high pressure in eastern Canada to push a back-door cold front down via the Gulf of Maine on Monday, but this should be with little fanfare, other than a wind shift and cooler air along the eastern coastal areas in comparison to the weekend. So we big farewell to August with a fairly nice weather pattern during the next several days overall. September opens with unsettled weather as a trough arrives from the west with lots of clouds and some wet weather likely by Tuesday.

TODAY: Clouds limit sunshine. A shower or thunderstorm possible this afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early, then clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point drops under 55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 50s. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches. Lows 56-63. Dew point in 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes then S up to 10 MPH late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point sub-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind W shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Fog patches. Lows 56-63. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 66-73. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Unsettled weather as a trough passes by with shower chances September 2, followed by fair weather mid period, then a shower chance returns late period. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Unsettled weather opportunities around September 7 and 10 in an otherwise mostly dry weather pattern. Temperatures somewhat variable but fairly close to normal overall.

64 thoughts on “Friday August 28 2026 Forecast (7:54AM)”

  2. My pre-season word on the Pats…

    -Better team than last year (which doesn’t mean they cruise, because…)

    -Tougher schedule than last year

    They’ll have to come to play. They will entertain us. And I do think they will perform admirably. I just hope the (many) spoiled fans don’t expect them to run the table. Unrealistic expectation if you have it. 🙂

    Reply

    2. They had best get Christian Gonzalez signed or they may lose a few more games. Other than that agree totally. With Gonzalez, 12-5 or 11-6 Without him, 10-7 or 9-8. Not that they are a worse team, but as you say, a much tougher schedule. Note: Even if he plays under the current contract, he will NOT be the same. It is just not human nature.

      Reply

      1. I’m not so sure one person makes that much of a difference … Up to 3 games? Nah. These guys made some great off-season moves. Wait and see. 🙂

        Reply

        1. I didn’t say 3 games. I said a few and then for the season, I changed it to 1 or 2 and I honestly believe he could make that much of a difference. Yes, they will be a good team, I just don’t want the defense to let them down. Will be fun to watch no matter. I just wish the Kraft wasn’t so damn cheap! He and his sons are misers over there. They worship every stinken penny!!!

          SCROOGE MCKRAFT!!!!!!

          Reply

          1. I took your range extremes … 9-8 vs 12-5. That’s where I got the “up to 3” from. 🙂

            And I was sure to use the phrase “up to 3” instead of just “3”. 🙂

            Either way, I am not so sure how much of a difference that would make. We’ll find out, maybe. 🙂

            Reply

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    74, up from 71. dp 67 YUCK!!!

    Ocean: 69

    Wordle: 5 Way too many choices, so I am NOT unhappy with the 5. I yellow on guess 1 and then I had 3 valid words for guesses 2,3 and 4 that could have been the word. All green, no yellows. NOPE, Damn Wordle! ONLY on guess 5 did I get the word Wordle wanted. I HATE these word trap days!!!! And I wasn’t even sure that it was a word. It was kind of desperation and I said to myself, is this a valid word? what the hell, try it and it was.

    Reply

  6. I spent a long time on my third Wordle guess. I couldn’t think of any word. Out of desperation, I guessed a word using an eliminated letter. This gave me enough information to get it in 4.

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  11. Dolly storm history in just Atlantic. There are others. I know the name was chosen long ago, but I don’t believe in coincidence.

    In the Atlantic Ocean:

    Hurricane Dolly (1953) – strong hurricane that weakened rapidly before passing over Bermuda
    Hurricane Dolly (1954) – stayed far from land
    Hurricane Dolly (1968) – moved up the east coast of the United States but did not make landfall
    Tropical Storm Dolly (1974) – did not strike land
    Hurricane Dolly (1996) – made landfall at Quintana Roo, Mexico and again at Tamaulipas, Mexico
    Tropical Storm Dolly (2002) – never threatened land
    Hurricane Dolly (2008) – Category 2 hurricane that caused $1.5 billion in damage to Texas and Mexico
    Tropical Storm Dolly (2014) – made landfall in Mexico
    Tropical Storm Dolly (2020) – formed off the coast of the United States as a subtropical depression
    Tropical Storm Dolly (2026) – currently active

    Reply

  14. Thanks TK
    It is not too often you see parts of SNE highlighted in the day 6 outlook for severe weather. This would be for next Wednesday. This will change several times but I always find it interesting when the SPC highlights an area in SNE in their 4-8 day outlook.
    From SPC
    there is a general consensus among
    medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the
    eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England
    corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will
    overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg
    MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective
    signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for
    Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.

    Reply

  15. Heading to Hampton Beach for the 3rd straight day…

    -Wednesday afternoon / evening when I met a wonderful family from Quebec and enjoyed watching / filming the fireworks from a rooftop down the road from where I usually see the display from.

    -All day Thursday with my son for his birthday (as he worked the day before, on his actual birthday, but had yesterday off), and it was a wonderful time. Even kicked butt in the arcade games we love playing together. And he beat me in the air hockey best-of-3! 🙂

    -Today, heading back with a bestie for her one beach day this summer! Will be there all afternoon.

    This is a quiet week in a relative sense up there. A lot of schools / colleges are back in session, so the attendance is way down before two more spikes (Labor Day Weekend and the Seafood Festival weekend following it). So if you want to avoid the bigger crowds, this is a great week to be there. 🙂

    Reply

  17. Theme in the models continue with a notable late summer season heatwave from the central plains eastward through the Ohio valley and maybe to the east coast. St Louis, maybe as far north as Chicago, Cincinnati ……. Many days in the 90s.

    The jet stream is our friend however and stays buckled in the northeast, keeping that heat southwest of us.

    As JJ mentioned earlier this morning, SPC highlighting a day 6, likely MCS event moving NW to SE

    Climatologically, the majority of these end of SW of most of New England and I’d expect this one, id it happens, to behave that way.

    The models are struggling in the medium range where the disturbances round the ring of fire of the 500 mb flow. For instance, the 12z GFS has a decent rain event across the area in the mid range, but I’ll bet that disturbance ends up further south and west.

    At least out to 7-10 days, not seeing that first crisp cool airmass, but a lot of 70s and low 80s, probably averaging a couple degrees above avg overall, as SAK noted in his forecast.

    Reply

    1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2026082812&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2026082812&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2026082812&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      Can see the bright red, very high 850 mb temps in the areas I described for heat above, but notice they never get into the northeast

      And …..

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026082812&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      Here’s a disturbance the 12z GFS simulates rounding the ridge with quite a bit of rain, but I’ll bet that ends up a lot further south and west, taking its rain with it.

      Reply

  19. Thanks, TK!

    84/70

    I got bored with the Pats game last night and decided to duck my head out the front door and noticed that we had clear skies and the start of the lunar eclipse. I quickly grabbed my camera and was able to snap this shot at 10 o’clock, just before the thick overcast moved in:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/tBTFm4jiypQ4JH6z8

    Reply

    1. Let’s see if the Sox can steal one tonight.

      Schitller, an AL Cy Young candidate for the Yankees vs Sandoval (Sox 5th starter)

      On paper, Yankees have a huge starting pitching advantage in this game tonight, but as we all know ……….

      Reply

    1. There is some low level convergence to possible help in this area.

      Brant Rock, the east most side of Marshfield is fairly foggy and has a light SE wind, meanwhile, 2 miles inland, it’s 5-10F warmer with a light west wind, so …. And if these can create outflow boundaries, I wonder if these build southward a bit?

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      1. And on the NWS radar, there’s a hint of purple/white in this cell, perhaps producing small hail at the beach?

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  23. TS Dolly is a done deal even sooner than forecast.

    This gives you an idea of the amount of shear out there. Never had a chance.

    This is also another great example of how global guidance does a very poor job since many runs over the past several days of various models brought a threat to the Caribbean or even closer to the US East Coast. Nope. I don’t bite bait like that.

    Reply

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