Monday August 31 2026 Forecast (8:04AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

This final day of August will feature a little September preview as a frontal boundary settles to our south and some cooler air enters our region from eastern Canada. It will be a nice day though with lots of sun in general, though it will be filtered by high cloudiness for a good part of the day the further south and southwest you are. We also have some fog patches in valley locations to start the day, but that will quickly dissipate. Coolest air will be along east-facing and north-facing shores today with a light northeasterly air flow. We open September with some unsettled weather as a series of disturbances move through the Northeast on a northwesterly air flow aloft, bringing episodic showers Tuesday (favoring morning-midday) and Wednesday (favoring evening and night), with one final warm front / cold front passage with a wavy frontal boundary on Thursday bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances. On Friday, the mess exits, but upper level low pressure can stick kick off a pop-up shower as cooler air moves in.

TODAY: Filtered sun CT, RI, south central MA with brighter sun elsewhere. Any early fog patches vanish. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Fog patches in valleys. Showers arrive northwest to southeast toward dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially morning to midday before tapering northwest to southeast. Highs 67-74. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 58-65. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog early. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 56-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 70-77. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible early, especially southeastern MA and RI. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Labor Day Weekend – surface high pressure to the north, weak upper trough over the region results in near to below normal temperatures with mainly dry weather but a sun / cloud mix during each of the days. Cannot rule out pop-up diurnal showers favoring Saturday and Sunday but with isolated coverage. Indications for high pressure dominating with fair weather later in the period including a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

A little more up-and-down temp pattern with a couple unsettled weather threats during this period, but far too soon for any detail.

56 thoughts on “Monday August 31 2026 Forecast (8:04AM)”

  6. I got Wordle in 3 today.

    I had good luck starting with the new mnemonic for the Great Lakes! 🙂

  8. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF303-01AAA-INVEST.png

    Credit to tropical tidbits.

    Recon plane in disturbed weather just south of Louisiana.

    Radar shows some kind of circulation, perhaps it’s at mid levels.

    Flight level winds very light, but maybe signs of a weak low level circulation.

    In this developing El Niño, these are the type of systems that are more likely, close to the US shoreline that develop some just before moving ashore.

  9. Thanks TK! I saw a forecast that holds highs in 60s this weekend…is that likely? That’s a little too soon for me.

  11. I’ll be running along behind the train today

    Wordle fail.

    After four correct letters in first two guesses and last four in correct position for guesses 3-6. Far too many choices.

    Not a spoiler

    https://ibb.co/GQBGH6Dc

  12. Flash flood struck the Grand Canyon yesterday.

    I believe 1 person lost their life and 15 are missing.

    The monsoon is quite active currently in the southwest US around western edge of a 500 mb ridge.

    Flood watches are extensive out there tstorms that can drop a quick inch or 2 of rain continue to be quite possible again today.

    https://www.weather.gov/images/gjt/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

  13. Of all the days to schedule a dental appointment for tomorrow morning. NOW we will get beneficial rain! By the time it ends in the afternoon, I’ll already be home. Tempted to cancel but I might as well get it over with I guess. Oh well.

    1. You’d cancel a dentist appointment for rain showers? 🙂

      I have one tomorrow too. I’m keeping it.

      1. RRFS A: right through most of our local area

        HRRR: southwest across CT

        3Km Nam: across northern New England.

  15. NHC initiating discussions on potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Tropical storm watches hoisted west of where the system is currently located.

  16. Is it too soon to know Saturday’s weather. My son, DIL and friends are running a half marathon in Carlisle

    1. TK’s medium range outlook above looks hopeful for next weekend.

      He mentions near to below normal temps, so, it might be perfect for runners with probably 70s inland and lacking any kind of overwhelming humidity.

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2026083112&fh=75&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    Mid latitude jet over northern US, but polar jet way up by the arctic circle, which makes sense in a positive AO.

    Arctic really to chill off, by autumnal chill in the next week to be north of the arctic circle.

    Yes, we may be below normal temp wise next weekend, but it’s not really from a plunge of autumn chill from Canada, it might be more from maritime air circulating from the maritimes into New England.

    1. 5 is excellent. I’m at the point where what I get is what I get. Or in the case of today, don’t get. 😉

  23. Jimmy B…
    There are a few place that may top out in the upper 60s this coming weekend.

    Vicki…
    I usually remove the daily dew point mentions around the end of August / start of September, but I will mention them if they end up spiking, especially if there is a longer-lasting bout of high humidity upcoming. 🙂

    All…
    The flash flood in Nepal was caused by a failure of stability in the bedrock underneath the ice / glacier that was holding back a lot of water. It occurred above v-shaped valleys which are notorious for rapidly-moving, powerful flash floods, basically about the worst-case scenario you could have from a natural occurrence.

    A quick review of newer data…
    No big changes to my forecast. Some of the shorter range guidance backs off on the second area of wet weather later Wednesday. I’ll monitor trends here. Some medium range guidance speeds up things in that period so that my forecast of high pressure and fair weather Monday would be incorrect, and we’d see increasing clouds and a potential rain threat. But it’s week away, so I wouldn’t worry much about it just yet.

    That is all for now!

  24. I heard via media that the Nepal floods are the result of global warming…period!

    Is that basically correct TK? The glaciers are melting much faster than usual?

    1. That is incorrect. The flood was caused by a bedrock failure. Those types of floods have been occurring in those mountains since long before we were around to build in those valleys.

      Can you cite your source?

  26. Willson Contreras on the 10-day DL. Hope he can come back by season’s end. He’s their best hitter.

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