DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)
High pressure builds in today, delivering a cool Canadian air mass on a gusty breeze. The high crests over our region tonight which will be clear, calm, and colder – resulting in the first frost for some inland low spots. The high then slides offshore Wednesday into Thursday with fair weather and a milder trend, but a cold front will move through during Thursday with some passing clouds and maybe a brief shower (the only rain chance in this 5-day forecast period). Fair, slightly cooler weather returns behind this front late week / start of weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost inland low elevations. Lows 36-43 except 43-50 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind calm.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, S to SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight chance of a brief shower. Highs 67-74. Wind SW to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-47. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Dry 10/11 but increasing clouds. Watching a potential low pressure impact with a rain chance for 10/12 before a stretch of fair weather follows that. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)
Unsettled weather threat mid period, otherwise dry much of the time. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Thanks TK
Good morning and thank you TK
46 here, new low for the season
Ocean: 59
Wordle; 4
Great 4, JpDave !
Thank you Tom.
Super 4!!
Good morning. The “Real Feel” was at 41 when I went out for my morning run. Very crisp. Kind of felt like a shock to the system since I went out in shorts and a t-shirt for my run.
Agreed..but the air felt so fresh..and lite!
I had on a winter jacket and it still felt chilly 🙂
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 5
https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=mex&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Lots of convection in the western Bay of Campeche.
I’d expect either some potential tropical cyclone advisories from the NHC at some point today or they fly a recon plane into the disturbed weather and find they have something and go directly to advisories on a depression or tropical storm.
Nice 5
Very nice 5, Tom
Thank you, TK. We were close to the 30s.
43/36 with our low if 41 which may tie for the seasons low. I need to check
Joining JPD today.
Wordle 4
Welcome to the 4 car!
I’m on my way to the Wordle 4-car as well!
Thank you TK!
Wordle: Hopping on the popular 4 car today!
Yay, Sue and SClarke. Please join us Tom!
Ditto Yay!!! It is a crowded car today.
Great 4’s everyone and alright, on my way 🙂
Yay!!!!
Four car is getting crowded! Climbing aboard
Welcome
The summit of Mt. Washington recorded 0.7″ of snow. Some of the cameras show the accumulation and flurries currently falling.
https://mountwashington.org/
Love the shot from the Wildcat webcam right now. Deep blue sunny skies everywhere except over the high summits of the Presidentials which are enshrouded in clouds and upslope snow showers.
I feel I am in Limbo weatherwise.
Some days hint at the coming Winter while other days bring memories of Summer, But it is NOT Summer NOR is it Winter. It is In Between. Well Autumn is the transition from Summer to Winter and that is where we are, for sure. I guess I have to live with it as there isn’t much I can do about it.
Rumblings from a grumpy Old Man. 🙂
Ever watch “Grumpy Old Men” and its sequel? Good movies. 🙂
Don’t think so. Just watched the trailer. Doesn’t look familiar.
🙂
Wordle in 3.
Patriots next game is against the Raiders who have been playing at a high level lately. Gunna be interesting.
Outstanding!! You be the engineer. Where are we heading today?
Salem. It’s that time of year.
Very nice and great destination
Superb !
I am sure there is a rule like Thou Shalt Not Use the RRFS model for tropicals. Look what the 12Z run shows
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026100612&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_se&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=92L&product=vis_swir
If one looks along the Mexico coastline, the lower clouds appear to be moving South and southeastward, so N and NW sfc flow
Out to the east and southeast of the convection, the clouds are moving northwestward, so southeast sfc inflow.
This thing is trying to spin. No plane sent out yet …….
It will
Thanks, TK!
44 this morning.
Here you go….above normal snowfall this Winter for the entire eastern seaboard, all the way down to Miami!! Lol.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/extreme-weather-events/new-map-predicts-snowfall-across-the-united-states-for-super-el-ni%C3%B1o-winter-26-27/ar-AA2dlaie?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6ac51056d012476ca0c028d9cc6e12c5&ei=28&cvpid=6ac5174113eb419db3b9a72610e8b804
MSN needs to do their homework before publishing information from sites like this. I believe Direct Weather is run by a weather “enthusiast” not a met.
Correction – I believe the story was written by Powder magazine.
ha ha ha
I guess it’s OFFICIAL!!!!!!
Yes, DW has zero training and real-world experience. His channel is strictly talking about what models say but glorifying the extreme, remote possibilities. It’s all for popularity and resultant monetization. There’s no science in any of it. I’ve seen the channel multiple times and know everything there is to know about it.
NO outlet should be putting that channel’s information out there as legitimate. This highlights a huge problem in media right now.
Thanks TK!
Its interesting.
The models are forming something in the Gulf, but not where the disturbed weather is now.
It looks on some of them like its not for another 48 hrs and its further southeast by the northwest side of the Yukatan Peninsula.
On the government site I use to monitor ENSO,
Nino region 1 and 2 have risen to a +4.5C anomaly
Nino region 3 is at +3.3C
Nino region 3.4 is at +2.3C
That covers a lot of equitorial ocean.
Yeah, I would side fairly confidently to exceedingly high precip anomalies in CA and the southern US, possibly making the turn somewhat up the east coast.
With that kind of energy available to this side of the hemisphere, I think the odds are increased of a very intense storm or 2 this cold season (less than 970 mb in strength)
The X factor is how much cold air will be available to said moisture.
I guess it would take just 1 instance of matching cold to an overloaded moisture filled event to produce above avg snowfall up and down the east coast. But, I’m less confident in the availability of cold air. We’ll see.
At least today, perhaps the models (Hurricane too) are showing a less hostile Gulf and near possible landfall upper air environment, because projected pressures out in the Gulf and somewhat up to a projected landfall are coming down, compared to previous days.
I do understand that because a center has not been found by a recon plane (what are they waiting for) and initialized into the models, model runs on this are highly speculative.
Is anyone who has Medicare part B getting their 90? A number of friends have. I have not. It’s due on or around 10/8