DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

High pressure overhead provided the clear & calm conditions for the coldest early morning of the season so far, with some inland low elevations receiving their first frost. For major stations, your cold spots were Taunton & Martha’s Vineyard at 32 as of 6 a.m., with typically “warmer” Logan Airport in Boston at 46. This is a good opportunity to point out the difference that can exist on a morning like this between Martha’s Vineyard (32) and Nantucket (44), because the latter’s station is exposed to much more ocean influence while the former’s temperature sensor sits in a relative “bowl” mid island where the wind can go calm and any warmth radiates out quickly, allowing the denser colder air to sink into the relative low spot. Always interesting. Anyway, high pressure slips offshore today and after our chilly start abundant sunshine warms is up notably by this afternoon as a southerly wind develops. Thursday looks like a mild day, but low pressure crossing southeastern Canada will drag its cold front across our region, maybe with a shower between mid morning and early afternoon, before we clear out. This is slightly faster timing than previously expected, but still it’s a moisture-starved front so any shower activity will be limited, and brief where it does occur. Some short-range high-resolution guidance pops a few additional showers later in the afternoon in the RI / southeastern MA area, but I’m not sure if this will occur. It may end up as more of a glorified deck of clouds and a few sprinkles, but we’ll keep an eye on that, just in case. Either way, a slightly cooler air mass arrives late Thursday into late week with another Canadian high bringing fair weather Friday into the weekend. When we get to Sunday, expect an increase cloud cover ahead of approaching low pressure. What is uncertain about Sunday (day 5) is how quickly the next system approaches. Some of it has to do with what is going on in the western Gulf where a new tropical system is getting organized. Now Tropical Storm Isaias, the system is expected to become the Atlantic Basin’s first hurricane of the 2026 season – as you know very very late compared to “typical” in this El Nino-snuffed season. The storm is expected to track northeast then north and make a landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Alabama by early Saturday, probably as a weakening system encountering wind shear. Regardless, plenty of remaining moisture from the system will be drawn northward into the trough and storm system heading our way, and the various guidance differs on timing of when that rain arrives here. The earlier scenario on some guidance has wet weather here as early as Sunday afternoon, while many models hold it off until nighttime for even Monday. I am leaning toward the mid-timed to later-timed scenario this far in advance but will monitor trends. So for now, Sunday’s outlook is for a rain-free day.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, S to SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except increasing low clouds and areas of fog near the South Coast. Lows 45-52 by late evening but may rise slightly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy morning-midday with passing showers possible. Partly to mostly sunny remainder of day with a slight chance of an additional shower RI & southeastern MA mid to late afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind SW shifting NW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-47. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 63-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Rain chance October 12 with low pressure passing by the region – details TBD. Shower chance October 13 with cold front crossing the area. Fair, breezy, cool October 14 then continued fair and more tranquil later next week as high pressure builds in.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Unsettled weather chance early and again late period but overall pattern is mostly dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal.