Thursday October 15 2026 Forecast (6:52AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)

High pressure builds in today with fair, seasonable weather. Being on the easterly side of the high at first we’ll have an active breeze to start, along with some patchy clouds, but a trend to less wind and more sun with time. The high pressure area departs tonight and opens the door to our next round of unsettled weather. Low pressure will move quickly east northeastward out of the Midwest and Great Lakes across northern New England Friday and Friday night. Its warm front will bring us a period or two of rain Friday morning, and its cold front a round of showers in the evening, with maybe a few stray showers between. The low will then rapidly intensify as it moves into Atlantic Canada, which drags the coolest air mass of the season so far into our region on a gusty wind Saturday. The frontal boundary will become nearly parallel to the upper flow though as it moves off the South Coast Friday night into Saturday, and this will allow some cloudiness to linger into Saturday morning, including a rain shower threat in far southeastern areas. But this will be relatively short-lived and the balance of that day will feature sun and passing clouds across the region with well below normal temperatures, made to feel even colder by the gusty wind. High pressure builds into the region Saturday night and Sunday with slackening wind and dry but cool weather. The high will then sink to the south by Monday with a slightly milder westerly air flow and continued fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Rain arrives west of I-95 pre-dawn. Lows 42-49. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog morning. Clouds may break for sun at times afternoon with the chance of a quick-passing shower. Highs 62-69. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early becoming SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers west to east evening. A passing shower possible overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning including a chance of additional showers South Coast to MA South Shore, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30 MPH or greater.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clearing. Lows 27-34 interior southern NH and central MA, 35-42 elsewhere, warmest urban centers and immediate coastal areas. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Abundant sunshine. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Some uncertainty has been introduced to the medium range period as guidance diverges greatly. Overall pattern suggest some blocking returning with high pressure from the US Northeast into southeastern Canada and low pressure off the Atlantic Coast well to the south. While some guidance keeps low pressure well out to sea later in the period, other guidance suggests it drifts in our direction later in the period. Will keep an eye on trends. Leaning mainly dry for now with maybe a late-period passing rain shower threat from a northern stream system

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

The blocking pattern may play a role early in the period, for now leaving it with an uncertain outlook. Trends are back to a zonal (west to east) flow toward month’s end.

67 thoughts on “Thursday October 15 2026 Forecast (6:52AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    This morning is nice for mid October, its cool, but not too cold.

    Wordle: 6 (made the train 🙂 ) I’ll take it !

    Reply

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    54 here and that was the low.

    Ocean; 58

    Wordle: did not play. As I was looking up a random 5 letter word on my phone, Google displayed today’s word. Bummer. I was going to use the word whale as the 1st guess. Where I would have gone from there, who knows.
    Anyhow, will play tomorrow. Good luck all.

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      1. I’M afraid the train has too much of a head start for me to catch it. Will try to catch the next departure tomorrow AM.

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  4. Here I sit at my computer feeling quite cold today as opposed to yesterday. We have the heat on, but thermostat is set fairly low.
    I don’t like feeling cold!!!!!

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  6. Thanks, TK.

    There’s a strong Atlantic storm hitting Iceland today with wind gusts up to 100mph. These powerful Atlantic lows that are fairly typical in autumn have quite the reach as they impact a broad swath of Northwestern Europe.

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  7. Thank you TK. Was thinking of mountain climbing on Saturday in NH but concerned about the early AM temps, winds, and what I think will be a very low cloud base. I think this will be a wait and see decision.

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    2. I still don’t understand why portion of the South Coast and Cape are in moderate drought. We have nearly 24 inches of rain since July 1.

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      1. Might, partially, have to do with deeper soil moisture.

        The kettle ponds in SE are quite full, but I’m pretty sure its a more complex picture than that.

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  11. Thought I had it with third guess

    Wordle 4.

    Still no idea why google would post the answer. It was definitely the correct answer JPD?

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    1. Excellent 4.

      And yes I googled random 5 letter word and there was a link for the word generator and then below that was TODAY’S WORDLE SOLUTION. That pissed me off as I wanted to try on my own.

      I did actually start and used my starting random word of WHALE. Of course I knew the answer, so I entered another word that revealed 3 in position and one out of position which is exactly the same as having 4 in position. There was ONLY one solution left AND it obviously was today’s solution.
      So YES, the solution given in google, was INDEED today’s solution. I did NOT continue and solve the game. No game for me today.

      I couldn’t very well play today as I would have gotten it on the first guess and that would be CHEATING!!!!!!!

      I wanted to play!!!!

      Reply

  13. Wordle 5. I didn’t use the random word generator today. However, I do feel for JpDave. I had a similar experience a few weeks ago and the same thing happened to me. It just ruined my day, I was looking forward to the challenge.

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    2. Very nice 5. I don’t understand why anyone or any program would post the answer. Was it the word finder program????

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    1. At least tomorrow evening, for several hours, will feel like a summer evening. 60s to near 70F with dps near or a bit over 60F.

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  17. Thanks Tk . I just got home from physical therapy & it’s not a bad day today & I’m still able to wear shorts which I love .

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      1. I remember TK writing that Siberian snow cover was running below average, I believe he wrote that perhaps a week ago?

        I can say though, the refreeze that has begun in the arctic ocean has been impressive.

        If, perhaps starting in November, we start to see positive AO, that would be the polar vortex remaining over the Arctic, leading to a very cold arctic circle.

        With a very cold arctic circle and a very warm equitorial Pacific, that increases the chances of a powerful Pacific jet, which increases the chances that the north American continent is frequently flooded with mild, Pacific air. We’ll see.

        Ironically, the Arctic has already let go of a few surges of early season chill, with the next one due this weekend, so, who knows …….

        Reply

            1. I am inclined to think that this winter has to do with the availability of cold air in New England. I feel the moisture will be here,

              I did read an article that the Siberian Snow Pack can have an effect on the PV by elongating it into 2 sort of lobes, one of which can periodically stick its nose into New England. (not sure i buy the argument.) But like you said, TK has already commented on the Snow Pack.

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    1. Agree SClarke. I’ve been putting around and just got in from Lowe’s , I’m going crazy at home not working almost a month now .

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  25. Keep in mind…

    The NOAA “winter forecast” is nothing more than the December-February long-lead update that they do out through 14 months on the 3rd Thursday of every month. It is not really a specially prepared “official” winter forecast. You can find a “December-February” forecast that’s in the future every single month, so by the same logic, you can also say that NOAA issues / updates their winter forecast once a month, year-round.

    Also keep in mind that they are pretty much mandated to lean HEAVILY on ENSO for their temperature / precipitation outlooks, which is basically why with only about 2 exceptions, since the early 2010s the “December-February” forecast issued in October has shown “above normal” temperatures, and believe me, they were not all “above normal”.

    I’ve been saying for a long time that their method is unreliable, and to be perfectly honest, absurd, because it’s being set by people that are not involved directly in the forecast process.

    As I stated on a social media post on this subject, regarding NOAA, “the leadership is out of touch”.

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  26. In other news, for the 2nd straight day my brother got Wordle in 2 guesses. Before yesterday, his best was 3. 😉

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    2. Not for Nothing, but both the 18Z NAM and the 18 RRFS are trending quite cold for Saturday and overnight Saturday!!!

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      1. I’m thinking I might need to turn on the heat , I need to get back to work & get some overtime as I am dreading the oil this year .

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  27. Yooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

    Quick update on my review of 12z data.

    Short term: No changes. The Friday system has worked itself out in the forecast now. Initial idea of low pressure tracking to our north is going to verify. Initial idea about faster cold front timing is not. It’s later, but later enough that after we get the morning warm frontal rain, we’re basically rain-free the rest of daylight, and even for a good part of the region rain-free into the early dark hours. I am photographing a high school football game in Woburn that kicks off at 6:00 p.m., and with Woburn heavily favored, I do think it will be a pretty fast game, so it should be over by 8:00 p.m., and I currently expect the heaviest showers from the cold front to arrive locally after that time.

    Medium range ideas have not really changed. The uncertainly I spoke of is there, and with reason, as we see guidance being very inconsistent in details while being rather consistent about the larger scale pattern that I described above. I must issue the usual caution for folks browsing social media to beware of hype posts from unreliable sources. Don’t click. Don’t share. Y’all here are smart. You know the deal. 🙂

    This evening is the first rehearsal of a choir I’ve been taking part in for the past 2 seasons (last year’s Christmas concert, this year’s Easter concert). Looking forward to doing that! Questionable if I can take part in the spring season. That is going to depend highly on my post-surgery recovery. One step at a time…

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  28. I respect your comments on the NOAA forecast but at approximately this time every year, it’s labeled as the Winter Outlook.

    As for its accuracy, that’s another story.

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    1. Oh I know. But it’s just part of a normal monthly product set they put out. There’s nothing special about it otherwise. The media just uses it as the “official NOAA winter forecast” which, technically, it is … But my point being made was this forecast is literally made every month, not just in October. 🙂

      Reply

  29. Near Boston, especially NW suburbs, potential for a short-lived but intense sunset with a patch of altocumulus clouds in just the right place.

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