Spring Preview Ending, It’s Still Winter

194 Comments

1:06AM

Even though the cold front that brought us a ribbon of rain Tuesday evening is now offshore, there isn’t an immediate push of cold air behind it. That will have to wait until a secondary front crosses the region later Wednesday, which will be a mild day, the last in a short series of them. After this, temperatures will be running near to below normal through the balance of next week, along with a few precipitation threats, which including the possibility of snow. Not looking for any big storms right now, though a system threatening early next week does need to be watched. For now I am leaning toward a progressive and minor to moderate impact with it, but keep in mind it is many days away. Before that gets here, a minor low pressure wave may bring some lighter precipitation early in the coming weekend. I’m confident this will not be a significant system.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Lingering rain showers southeastern MA end otherwise breaking clouds. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine & passing clouds. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. A few showers of rain to snow late. Lows 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers mainly through midday. Highs near 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain/snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 41.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 43.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/rain likely. Low 31. High 41.

194 thoughts on “Spring Preview Ending, It’s Still Winter”

  7. A higher elevation has been my thinking with the early week storm system. According to the NWS from Upton NY the low is going go right over the NYC vicinity and we all know when a low does that it is not a good track for accumulating snow.
    There are two possible minor snow events one Saturday and another possibly Sunday night.

  8. Another day closer to events and it appears that a couple of things are evolving.

    1. Regarding this weekend. I don’t get it. Watched Barry last night and he indicated
    that most of the snow from this weekend’s event (Sat) would head into Northern
    New England??? Everything I had seen up to that point indicated Out South of us.
    Now some models indicate that this small clipper like system will affect us directly,
    while other models still have it going South. It looks like a HIT to me. NAM seems
    the most juicy. Not that it is much. 😀

    2. Regarding next week’s event, BB last night said a “Small” accumulation of
    snow is possible at the front end of an event Tuesday night BUT the whole
    event would NOT be a big deal. Now we have gone from an all out BOMB to
    a ho-hum, mostly rain event. Models indicate that a secondary WILL develop, but
    it appears to be a case of too little, too late. Perhaps saving snow for Northern NE,
    but keeping it rain in SNE.

    Still time for this to evolve. I certainly was thinking
    snow. Now, not so much. We’ll see. :F

    1. Btw, the NAM is calling for a small accumulation of Snow for Saturday.
      Waiting for 12Z run for more details. 😀

      1. I’m sorry not a bb fan at all. From what I heard Saturday around here nothing its a day thing. Next week still needs watching but was looking like higher elevated areas would see snow.

          1. John,

            Don’t be so sure of that. I mean you may be correct, but Saturday “may” hold a small surprise.

            Re: Next week
            Sure looking like RAIN at this time.

            1. Oldsalty that’s what I heard this morning, I don’t have an oppinion. Winter is on its last breath whether it snows or not.

              1. John,

                I understand. No problem.
                We’ll see what happens.

                I fine with Winter being over, IF it indeed is. 😀

  9. NWS out of Upton on the two systems for the weekend. The one Saturday and the other one Sunday night.
    THE FIRST IS FRI NGT INTO SAT. THIS IS A CLIPPER AND THE OVERALL
    COLDEST OF THE THREE. FCST WAS BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF WITH SUPPORT
    FROM THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE SO THIS IS NOT
    REALLY A BIG PCPN MAKER. HOWEVER…THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT A MID
    LVL FROGEN BAND COULD SET UP ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
    RIGHT NOW A 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND…BUT
    IF WE USED THE EXACT PROG FROM THE 00Z ECMWF IT WOULD BE JUST N OF
    THE CWA. MARGINAL TEMPS LOOK TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN OR A NON
    ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ALONG THE COASTS AND CITY. BEST COASTAL CHANCE
    FOR ACCUMS IN CT.

    SECOND SYSTEM IS A PACIFIC WAVE WHICH RACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
    BRINGS INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON ST PATRICKS DAY. RIGHT NOW IT
    LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY…BUT PCPN CHANCES INCREASE RAPIDLY SUN NGT.
    THICKNESSES MARGINAL AGAIN…SO INTERIOR SPOTS WILL RUN THE BEST
    CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMS. MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT IS A
    QUICK MOVER. IF THE 00Z ECMWF PANS OUT…MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE
    SUN NGT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE PCPN ENDING QUICKLY ON MON.
    THERE IS LESS OF A MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
    SYSTEM…WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY FURTHER N THAN THE 12Z RUN. THE
    00Z GFS IS DRY.

  10. This is the time of year when northern and central NE get most of its snow. Looks like some good chances of that in the coming weeks.

  11. How we looking for the St Patrick’s Day Parade in Southie? My Motorcycle Club has been invited to ride in it this year, rain or snow the night before might make it a bit tough. Any help out there?

    1. We’re working on it. Waiting on 12Z runs to get a better handle on things.
      Please see JJ’s post above. 😀

  12. When a model shows a storm system turning into a bomb like the EURO was a few days ago for a storm more than a week ago it rarely happens. I can’t get excited about storms when models show a solution like that with the storm way out there in the future.

    1. JJ, generally I agree with you, however, the Euro has had a pretty impressive track record of sniffing these bombs out way in advance. 😀

      We shall see.

  13. I’m going to say this again in a nonconfident way so it doesn’t ruffle the snow lovers, it appears rain is a better shot than snow for tue,, I do think winter is over certainly snow wise imo BUT we will see if models continue to say that as we get closer to the event, nice day today, off to do a little work, hope all is well, sun feels very nice 🙂

  14. These teases of spring in march are just annoying no matter how much we r used to being new englanders

  15. It’s Wednesday, we’ll see what happens. It’s going to be a comparatively active pattern no matter what. Mostly rain at the coast with these systems with the possible exception of Friday, but also some snow chances and plenty of relatively cold air. I think the models are underplaying the cold at this point, as there’s more cold air in southern Canada now than there was 10 days ago, and it’s poised to invade out area. Of course, it won’t be nearly as cold when it gets here, but I think the keywords the coming week are “blustery,” “raw,” and at times simply “cold.”

  16. It will be interesting if the EURO trends back to the bomb it was advertising from the beginning. The NAO is negative along with the AO and that setup usually gets a storm to form on the coast.

  17. Ahhhhh. What do we have here? Just when I thought I wouldn’t be back on the boards until next winter we have yet another event to talk about. I haven’t read your comments yet about this storm but there appears to be something a brewing for early next week. The EC has backed off from its original thinking however, it typically does until the energy arrives in the US. When the EURO sees something but then loses it before the storm has entered the US, that raises eyebrows for me. That’s happened a couple of times this winter. Perhaps I’m reading into this a bit but things could get interesting next week Mon-Tues-Wed timeframe.

    1. Well if snow is what brings you back, I hope that it snows through the summer 😉 Nice to see you here !!!

    2. This is the concern. We’ll have to watch, but so far it looks to be a warm solution for Sne. I emphasize so far. 😀
      We’ll have to check all of the 12Z runs later.

      re: Saturday
      12Z NAM now in the Out South of us camp.

      Not sure about Sunday/Sunday Night. Nam not out that far.

      1. I wasn’t impressed with the weekend event but the EURO did show an eerily similar surface low off the NC coast early next week yet only stronger than this past major storm we had. It does have me concerned even though the EC backed off.

  18. Alisonarod I enjoy reading your comments here on the blog. Hopefully will see here on thunderstorm days this summer to give your insights. I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms!

      1. Thanks JJ and yes I do love tracking thunderstorms and tropical cyclones. Look forward to the tropical update 48 past the hours 😀

        1. I just hope all the tropical activity stays over the fish during hurricane season. It will be interesting to see if
          SNE gets impacted by a tropical system 3 years in a row.

    1. Interesting. I do agree on what was said that with each passing day the snow chance goes down due to Sun angle.

    2. Yes, but I am getting the feeling that when NAO and PNA are negative, inside runners/coastal huggers are more likely. I hope I am wrong on that.

  22. I more interested in the Saturday Sunday night systems since those seem have slightly better chance of delivering more in the way of wintry precipitation.

    1. Yes, wouldn’t it be funny if the weekend system(s) end up giving us more snow than the midweek one? LOL 🙂

  23. JR is having the same concern:

    Tuesday: Another winter storm. Morning snow (could be heavy) with rain by afternoon. Highs from 35-40. Northeast wind 15-30mph.

  24. Lots of cold air around. We will see snow accumulation..at least minor…from both systems.

    1. Do you agree with Jr on Saturday. No road accumulation just on grass. Earlier I thought you said in tour post that you were confident that the weekend event was nothing to worry about, changes.

  25. I agree with that because its mid March and unless the snow comes down very hard during the daylight hours it will not stick to the roads. The grassy surfaces the snow will stick but accumulation will be tough given the fact the system is happening during the daylight hours.

  26. There are the beginning of that maroon cranberry tint on top of the trees in certain areas, more signs spring is around the corner, though yes we can get frost and freezes up to about April 11th on average depending where you are in Southern New England

  27. Ho-Hum,

    Just looked at the 12Z GFS for what it is worth.

    4 items:

    1. Friday Night/Saturday clipper Out South of us.
    2. Sunday night system Out South of us.
    4. Wednesday system, now Monday night/Tuesday and it goes N&W
    with no re-development and even RAIN to NNE.
    5. The entire 384 hours worth of the GFS has NO snow in the Boston Area at all.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2013031312/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif

    Will check on Ukmet and Cmc and the Euro when available.

  28. 12Z CMC has a PARADE of systems starting next week following a little nuisance precipitation this weekend.

    It has the Tuesday system redevelop giving us some snow changing over (or not) with
    snow up North.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144

    Then it has another for Friday AM:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=204&fixhh=1&hh=216

    Then another waiting in the wings:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=240

    Very interesting indeed. 😀

  29. The crocuses on the south side of my house are in full bloom and Charlie I’m seeing the maroon/cranberry tint too. My daffodils are not far from blooming – maybe a week or two.

    1. Oh and Charlie – you win the bet – enough bare spots here for me to say snow is gone —— unless retrac sees something different that is 🙂

  30. Ocean temps bottomed out at 39.3 degrees on Feb 26th and today it’s 40.8 degrees, seabreeze season next 8 weeks

  31. Here is the 12Z Euro at hours 144 and 168.
    It is tough to see what happens with these 24 hour increments:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

    It “looks” like the coastal takes over and moves approximately over the benchmark
    and on up into maritimes of Canada. Also “looks” like Snow to mix and/or rain and then back to snow.

    So, does anyone have better than 24 hour increments? (Wundermap goes only to
    hour 144) and does anyone have qpf for event.

    Based on Wundermap, qpf does not look to be too much.

    many thanks

  32. Now, TODAY is my idea of nice, early spring weather.

    Beautiful warm sun, cool to mild temps, perfect.

    More please !! I know, not gonna happen. 🙂

      1. LOL, I am.
        The 850 temps on the EURO are depressing. In this big time blog, its warmer at 850 hundreds of miles north of us in east central Canada in the long term (days 7-10).

        Thats alright, when the negative NAO lets go in many weeks, we’ll bypass 40s and 50s and go straight to 70F.

  33. OS it looks warm at 850 temps and 2 M temps and only about .50 QPF.

    Also the EURO really shows no precip this weekend either.

  34. Welker could be a Bronco but I do expect the Patriots to make a splash so to speak going forward

    1. Welker was gone as of Opening Day this year when Eddleman started
      in place of him. 😀
      Pats were already experimenting with Hernandez taking over the slot role.

      Done deal. Welker is GONE. Say Good-Bye.

        1. Well that and the drop in the Super Bowl last year, plus
          a fair number of very makeable catches dropped during the season.

      1. Hey, at least if he’s on the Pats, he wont be able to hurt any of them! Although, there’s still contact in practice… 🙄

          1. Agreed, however, Pollard is better than anything
            they have, except if they keep aqib talib. 😀

          1. Makes no sense to me. WHY did they bother
            to restructure Tom Brady’s contract.

            Is there something going on behind the scenes
            that we don’t know about???

            Make no business sense either. The have plenty
            of cap space?

            Is Kraft that CHEAP?? I guess so.

            We should all stop watching. Those with tickets
            should boycott games.

            Send them a message.

            1. A boycott will never happen as long as Brady and BB are around. The “razor” will be soldout well in advance as always. 😀

                2. Yes but to get Victor Cruz you have to a) pay him and b) surrender a first round draft pick. Since both players are very similar, it would have been more advantageous to the patriots to pay Welker AND retain the first round pick. Makes no business sense whatsoever to let Welker walk and sign Victor Cruz as nice a player he is.

                4. Not sure how you can say that Vicki. Welker has been the most productive wide receiver in the game since 2007. Not to mention that Cruz is more physically fragile than Welker. The only thing Cruz has on Welker is age–that’s about it. I agree. Cruz is a nice player but he is no Wes Welker.

            2. They just didn’t want him O.S.

              Frankly, they’ve become too predictable in big games and Brady and the offense need to grow up and all play better versus that over-reliance on Brady-Welker in the end that hasn’t won them a S.B.

  38. It is obviously clear now that the Patriots no longer wanted Welker on the team. I hope they have a good alternative in mind. I don’t know next year’s schedule, but if Denver is on it, you can certainly count on Welker having a field day given our shaky pass defense not to mention plain vengence if nothing else. Peyton Manning’s stats can only get better now as far as completions and touchdowns. 🙁

    1. Denver comes here next season. Welker was my favorite patriot. He is a standup guy, fearless and a phenomenal team player. I don’t blame him at all. Shame on you kraft for letting it get this far. Lookout for Denver next year. I also believe Weller had a bad taste from that playoff benching a couple years ago against the jets. Brady must be bummed as the two of them are best friends. It is a business but he should have retired a patriot.

  40. I’d rather see them go 10-6 but win a superbowl rather than 14-2 and be easy to game plan against in big spots.

  41. It is reported that he took a two year deal worth 12 million. I can’t believe that the Patriots couldn’t do better than 6 million per year x 2 years! It’s possible Welker was offered a better contract from the Patriots but declined it as he wanted to stick it to them. I just can’t get over that all he could get was two years at 6 million per year. I know he wanted three years but if he were to get a 2 year deal I would have thought he wouldn’t have taken less than eight or nine million per year for a two year deal.

    1. Don’t this so, he came back to Patriots and new the bid and Patriots still bid under, they plain didn’t want him, they were trying to eliminate welker in game 1 of season, will see what the patriots bring in, I want Defense 🙂

      1. I think you are right Charlie. And word is he gets too many conclusions too SIL was telling me about Cruz. He thinks pats would be close to unbeatable with him. Will they go after him. Who knows.

        1. As a patriots fan I’m going to be patient and see where we r at the days after draft, welker was a fav and there will be people upset

    2. Arod welker has minimal catches over 20 yards. Check their stats. All the ones where Cruz is Better than welker are the ones that count. My opinion and from all of the listening im doing im not alone. I thought welker would go last year.

      1. Cruz is younger. That’s all he has on Welker. He’s fragile and unproven. He can’t stay on the field nearly as much which makes him less reliable as a receiver. I could give a rats you know what what others think, LOL. It is well known that Welker has been the most dominant receiver in the game for the past 6 years 😀

    3. His offer speaks volumes. Arod. He was in a good system and flourished. I hope he does well with manning. It’s a great opportunity.

    1. Which ones?

      Weekend non-events should stay mostly South with any precip that makes
      it here light and probably mix and/or rain.

      The next event is slated now for Monday Night/Tuesday AM and looks
      to be a Lakes Cutter Rain event, as the one following it Thurs/Fri and IF
      there is one more, that too a cutter.

      That’s how it looks at the moment. We’ll keep watching.

  46. As for weather…latest CPC has below normal temps and above precip for the next two weeks for most of the CONUS in fact. 🙂

    1. I wish we had this back in December, January, and February. I would love to see this for the summer months since I am not a fan of 3 H weather minus the above normal precipitation.

  47. I was hoping Welker would be back, but I certainly saw the hand writing on the wall.

    That being said, I’m with Arod. They should have maintained his services. Could have been done for a reasonable price and then they could have gotten a better wide out than Llyod and still shored up the defense.

    No other receiver they get to replace him will be as durable. No one.

    The main reason they got into trouble in the play offs and super bowl
    was Injury to the Gronkman, who, btw has proven to be Far less durable than
    Welker. Go Figure.

    I feel sorry for Brady, who by the way is pissed off beyond belief.

    1. Totally concur. People will really appreciate Welker when the next receiver goes up the middle, takes a shot, and ends up missing half a season. Welker took a beating and you could always count on him. You don’t know what you’ve got, until it’s gone. I’m sure the Patriots will not be interested in Cruz knowing that he will want to be paid AND will have to give up a first round draft pick to get him. He is essentially the samer player, a slot receiver, so if were interested in Cruz, they would have signed Welker. Perhaps they will use Hernandez in Welker’s role and go for a receiver who can run over the top. We need a deep threat!

      1. Ummmm have you checked Cruz’s ability to far outrun welker who can’t go further than 20 yards

        1. You have all justified why welker was let go……predictable was mentioned…..a receiver who can run over the top is needed…….what can I say

          Other than…….Back to weather

        2. Vicki, no one is arguing that Cruz is not a good player.
          Our argument is for the money, draft pick and the fact that Welker knows the system and he and Brady connect, he is the much better fit for the Patriots. That’s how I see it anyway. And as Arod stated, Cruz would not be as durable. 😀

          That being said, now that Welker is gone, is sure wouldn’t hurt to get him. I’m betting that we’d have a better chance of getting a blizzard on Memorial Day. 😀

        1. I wonder of welker was playing games. He settled for far less than he wanted from pats. Again speaking volumes

          1. Absolutely!! Without a doubt. In my opinion,
            Welker was hurt by the way the Pats treated him.
            It would have take a God Father type offer to keep him here.

            I’d Love to hear the truth some day.

            1. Welker likely accepted less of a deal just to stick it to the Patriots. He wasn’t very happy with them and who can blame him. Sure. Now that he is gone, it would be nice to get Cruz. Unlikely to happen since the Pats won’t want to give up that first round draft pick. There is no else like Welker but now it’s clear we need to move on.

              1. Indeed and to be thrown balls by
                Peyton Manning didn’t hurt either.

                We will never see Cruz in a Pats uniform, except maybe for a 1 year deal in the twilight of his career. 😀

              2. Nah. Many thought he should have left last year. I don’t think pats cares enough for him to stick it to them

                1. I think they will care when Peyton/Welker shreds our defense next year Vicki and so will you 😀

  48. The weather appears to be as depressing as the Patriots news.

    It sure is looking like a parade of Lakes Cutters, or as BB would say,
    a squadron. 😀

  49. I’m with the Pats on this. Thanks Wes for 5 great years and a lot of regular season wins. Playoffs, still very essential, productive, but did not make 2 catches that great players make.

    Catch #1 : Very tough, over the shoulder catch late in the 4th qtr vs the Giants in last year’s Super Bowl. Catch it and the game is over, Title #4.

    Catch #2 : Very easy, in the hands catch in the 3rd qtr vs Ravens in this years AFC Title Game. Pats are ahead 13-7, that would have been 1st and 10 at the Ravens 25. Instead, Pats punted and the Ravens never looked back.

    32, taken a ton of hits ……. Hold onto aging players and you get the 90s Celtics and the slowly declining current Celtics. Cant be emotionally attached fans about this, have to be cold hearted ……. where’s the next good set of players that are younger ??

          1. Take that 6 million dollars and get a pass rusher and more secondary help.

            If they added zero to the offense and I’m guessing they will, a healthy Brady, Gronk, Hernandez, Ridley and any middle of the road receiver is going to still be above average.

            Defense, we need another Ty Law, Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour.

    3. Me too Tom. Plus they just signed Danny Amendola, who is a Welker reincarnate. They just got a younger version of what Welker used to be. Win in my books for the Pats. Welker is one more monster hit from being sidelined for a long time.

        2. Speedy little guy from St. Louis. Was hurt a little bit last year, but a slot guy that can go deep.

          1. I now remember watching a Sunday game on Fox and he was a one man catch machine…… First time I had seen this receiver and I remember thinking, this guy’s pretty good !

  50. Tomorrow in Boston, the solar noon sun reaches 45.3 degrees above the horizon. I believe it equates with Sept 28th. When I got in my car around 3pm, it was toasty warm.

    2. Broken Collarbone and dislocated elbow. Neither seems to be the type of injury that would be what I would call recurring. Not sure if he qualifies as injury prone. Stats are very reminiscent of where Welker was when he joined the Pats. I think it’s a good signing.

  57. Amendola is good, right now he’s no welker but will see, he’s injury prone but he’s young, welker was gone all along and it’s nice to see the Patriots have a back up plan, I expect more medium size signings that will improve the team, I want Defense, 🙂

  58. Ever since the foot comments against Rex Ryan it’s been downhill for welker, I will always remember him as a GREAT slot receiver but also remember him as dropping 1 key drop that would have won us a 4th Lombardy, when I go to the game next year against Denver at Gillette I will applaud him and then root too the Gil against em, Go Patriots!!

    2. I would like to see alot of 2 tight end sets which should allow amendola a little more space, amendola is actually faster beyond 12 yds but not inside 12 yds so will see

    3. What was Welker before he came here to hook up with Brady…about the same as Amendola is now. Unfair comparison at this point…let’s see what happens in a year or two.

      1. We as a sports town tend to always overrate our players. It’s like fans who call up WEEI or the Sports Hub and want to trade 2 Fenway Franks and a watered down beer for King Felix. Not saying Welker was overrated but maybe there is a reason that the Broncos offered only slightly more than the Pats.

        On another note there are people who think he is only one or two hits away from a major head injury. Not sure if I agree with that but he has taken some major hits to the head in the past couple of years.

  60. Here is a tweet from Albert Breer from NFL network. Highly respected

    @AlbertBreer: Sorry, gotta put this bluntly … The way I hear people talk about Welker, it’s like they think any quick, short white guy can replace him.

    1. I think overall when everything settles and they take the money and put it on defense I’ll will be happy, until they do that I’ll only be half happy,

  61. I would like to squeeze in a little weather thoughts here:

    Today’s CPC has well below normal temps and above precip for the forseeable future for most of the CONUS and I am somewhat surprised OS and others here have already given up on snow for the midweek. Even Barry mentioned in his evening blog that it is still 5-6 days away. No mets have given their final thoughts just yet from what I can tell from their blogs and on air thoughts. After what happened last week they don’t dare.

    TK, do you agree with the latest CPC?

Comments are closed.