11:24AM

The next 7 days will feature 3 days of warming, a day of transition, and 3 days of chill. Today through Monday (long Veterans Day weekend for some) will feature fair weather and a warming trend, with sun much of today, clouds tonight as a warm front pushes through, a return to some sun Sunday, and even more sun with Indian Summer warmth for Monday. Tuesday will be the divide as a front moves across the region bringing a cloudy sky and a period of rain or showers at some point (working on the exact timing). Wednesday through Friday will be governed by high pressure and will be bright days with a typical November chill.

Forecast details for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunshine & a few clouds (more clouds showing up in the western sky late day). Highs 50-55. Wind up to 10 MPH mainly NW to N.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 40-45. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Clouds & sun mixed with clouds dominating the morning, more sun afternoon. Highs 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 except a few upper 40s in deep valleys/bogs. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY OBSERVED): Sunny. Highs 70-75 except 64-69 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain or showers. Temperature cooling through the 50s.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 31. High 44.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 24. High 45.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 26. High 48.

12:45AM

The storm responsible for wind, rain, and snow the past couple of days is on its way out. Other than a leftover brisk breeze today, tranquil weather will be the rule through the start of the next week. Only an interruption of cloudiness will occur at some point over the weekend as warmer air pushes into the region. The warmest day of the stretch will be Monday. Tuesday, clouds and a shower threat exist as a cold front moves in, and the middle of next week looks fair and chilly.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-50. Wind W to variable around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 40-45. Wind variable 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-63. Wind S-SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM showers. Low 45. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

10:56PM

Nothing like coming out of the gate on the first “winter storm” of the season and stumbling. Not to be too harsh on myself, this was not an easy one to spot ahead of time. Even knowing it could snow in some places, the areas I’d have expected more got less, and some of the areas I expected less are getting the most. Other people are saying “snow? what snow?” because they haven’t seen any, just rain. Some areas that have been cold enough to snow throughout this have also seen very little, due to dry air holding strong. Heavier snow has largely been the result of meso-scale banding, or strips of heavier snow which can sit over one area for a while. As of late evening, some of the heaviest amounts of 4 or more inches have occurred southwest of Boston. The jackpot in New England has been in portions of western and southwestern CT, where 5 to 10 inches of snow have occurred thanks to intense banding much earlier in the day and continued banding into the evening. Some coastal areas are finally getting into snow after being stuck in a rain area due to warmer air from the ocean.

To note, the most important cause of the snow today was very dry air that was in place as the moisture from the storm started to fall into it. For a while most of the precipitation was evaporating, but as this happens, the air above is cooling and that cooling gets pulled earthward as precipitation falls. In this case, it cooled enough in many areas to support snow for much of the early to middle portion of this storm event. That, combined with banding, has resulted in a highly variable snowfall distribution.

Now that I have missed most of my forecast snow amounts, it’s time to reset, finish off the rest of this storm with updated info, then look ahead to the coming days.

During the next 24 hours, the low pressure area responsible for the snow as well as pounding surf along the coast and some strong to damaging wind in South Coastal New England will weaken and spin its way east of New England. Unsettled weather will continue but with milder air at all levels precipitation on Thursday will be mostly in the form of light rain and drizzle. Drier air finally works in as the low departs Thursday night. Friday through Monday (observed Veterans Day) will feature fair weather with a cool start then a warming trend. A warm front may push an area of clouds through the region Saturday night into Sunday. By Tuesday of next week, high pressure building to the north of the region will push cooler Atlantic air in along with clouds. A disturbance trying to move in from the west will bring a chance of showers at some point later Tuesday into Wednesday – too far away for precise timing of course.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Bands of snow except mix/rain over southeastern MA, Cape Cod, & Islands. Additional accumulation up to 1 or 2 inches in a few areas. Precipitation tending to become lighter and mixed with rain/drizzle toward dawn. Lows 32-38. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts except 25-35 MPH with higher gusts over coastal areas and some higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of light rain and drizzle, but some mix may still occur inland areas early. Highs 41-46. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Starting cloudy with any light rain and snow showers ending. Gradual clearing overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM showers. Low 44. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 41. High 51.

3:37PM

Yes it’s upon many in southern New England rather quickly. Very dry air has allowed the early precipitation to drag cold air down and start many areas off as snow. This will add a little bit to the overall totals but warm ground and also warming at mid levels will keep this from being a significant snowfall. The rest of the storm should behave as previously advertised, and then get out of here by early Friday, with nice weather for the Veterans Day Weekend (the holiday being observed on Monday).

Full discussion later on another update. For now, updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH EVENING… Rain Cape Cod & Islands, rain and snow RI and southeastern MA, snow interior MA and southern NH. Temperatures ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s NW to SE across the area. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH except 25-45 MPH with higher gusts in coastal areas especially Cape Cod & Islands.

OVERNIGHT: Rain coastal areas, mix/rain inland but some snow hanging on northwestern fringes of the forecast area before mixing. Snow accumulation through the event ranging from a slushy coating to around 1 inch on grassy surfaces except 1 to 3 inches in higher elevations. Main roads will remain just wet. Steady temperatures. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers ending by late at night. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 62.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 52.

7:28AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain develops SE to NW midday-afternoon but mix/snow in the 95/495 belt. Highs reach 50 Cape Cod but struggle to upper 30s interior southern NH, 40s by late day most areas. Wind NE increasing to 15-35 MPH but gusts 40-55 MPH by late day especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix to rain inland, rain elsewhere, may be heavy for a time. Snow accumulation slushy coating to 1 inch 95/495, 1-3 inches in some of the highest elevations, mainly on grassy areas. Overnight rain tapers to drizzle and periods of lighter rain. Temperatures steady. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH with strong gusts continuing especially in coastal locations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 60.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Low 51. High 60.

8:44PM

The coming 7 days will showcase the many sides of New England’s weather. We’ll see cold and tranquil, wind & rain, maybe some snow, blustery unsettled, drying and moderating, and probably even Indian Summer before it’s all done.

The break-down:

Tonight… High pressure builds in, clouds vanish, winds die off, and the temperature drops to the coldest levels of the Autumn so far.

Tuesday… High pressure overhead brings tranquil, sunny, but chilly weather. It’s Election Day and despite the chill in the air it will be perfect for getting out to your local polling place so don’t come up with any excuses. 🙂

Wednesday… As we are enjoying our nice day Tuesday, a strong shortwave (bundle of energy) dropping through the southeastern US will join forces with a low pressure area off the Southeast Coast and intensify a coastal storm which will then deepen rapidly and move northward. This will throw a shield of precipitation into southern New England during the afternoon and evening (though some guidance has faster timing and a late morning arrival). With cold air in place, some snow may be leading the precipitation off, especially over the interior and higher elevations. The best chance of accumulating snow will be outside of the forecast area in the mountains, but I cannot rule out some accumulation of wet snow in the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH at some point Wednesday afternoon or night. The bigger story with this storm will be the wind, which will reach gale force in gusts especially in coastal areas. Wind damage is possible, as well as some scattered power outages. Coastal flooding should be minimal because of astronomically low tides, but even minor flooding can be a problem especially along the South Coast where moderate to significant flooding occurred with Sandy.

Thursday… The low pressure area should track to somewhere near Cape Cod and may do a small loop before heading east then north again in the waters just east of New England. Gusty winds will continue but will be shifting more northerly with time. Gusts should diminish and the threat of wind damage and coastal flooding will lessen. It should still be quite wet, even though the heaviest of the precipitation will likely have occurred overnight. There should be sufficient warming during the height of the storm so that anything falling on Thursday will be in the liquid form over the entire forecast area.

Friday… The storm departs, but how quickly this happens will determine the magnitude of clearing of the sky. Optimistic guidance shows clearing in the morning. A more reliable model shows clouds hanging on until late in the day when it should finally clear. Going to split the difference for now and adjust accordingly.

Weekend (Saturday / Sunday / Monday which is observed Veterans Day)… Fair weather, a warming trend, with some downright warm Indian Summer weather possible by Monday as high pressure ridging builds rapidly along the US East Coast.

The Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH:

TONIGHT: Any clouds vanish. Clear and cold. Lows ranging from 19 in deep valleys to near 30 in Downtown Boston, 20s everywhere else. Wind NW-N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Mostly sunny. A chilly day. Highs in the 40s. Light wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to start then high clouds advancing S to N toward dawn. Lows ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s coast. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds thicken S to N early. Rain develops SE to NW midday-afternoon but may start as snow in the 495 belt where some minor slushy accumulation is possible. Measurable snow may take place in the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs reach the lower 50s Cape Cod but struggle to the lower 40s in southern NH, middle to upper 40s by late day most areas. Wind NE-E increasing to 15-35 MPH but gusts 40-55 MPH by late day especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Stormy with rain, possibly heavy. Any mix well N & W to rain. Overnight rain tapers to drizzle and periods of lighter rain. Temperatures hold in the 40s. Wind E-NE 15-35 MPH with strong gusts continuing especially in coastal locations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 60.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

12:12AM

There are no significant changes to the discussion issued early Sunday morning. What I am doing in this update is adding some cloudiness to the Monday forecast. Still enough of a low pressure trough over us through the day to allow some additional cloudiness – more than I had been expecting. Also may be a band of clouds with a reinforcing cold front which will be passing through late in the day. So, slightly less bright for Monday, still a bright and chilly Election Day, and a midweek storm to deal with.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s except some upper 10s inland valley areas. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over south to north followed by rain developing south to north. Potential for some mix/snow higher elevations well NW of Boston. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind, tapering off late. Low 38. High 50 (possibly warmer SE).

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 33. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 34. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 57.

7:17AM

Hi all! A quick personal note: Still in hospital but I have laptop with me therefore after a pretty decent night of rest and some nice medication to slow my heart rate (staying for a while today for a few tests then we’ll see what happens…) I am able to do a quick update for the WHW forecast area of eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

Discussion…

No big changes in the overall idea from the last entry. We’re chilly and dry through Tuesday as a low pressure trough departs to the east and high pressure builds in, with a northwest to northerly flow. Election Day (Tuesday) looks bright and chilly. No excuses not to get out and vote! Strong signals continue for the East Coast storm for midweek. Slowing the timing slightly so that for most of our area the heaviest precipitation and strongest wind take place Wednesday night into Thursday. The main concern about this storm threat is coastal flooding, and there will be some, but it will likely be only minor to locally moderate due to an astronomically much lower tide that what occurred during Sandy. Wind, though significant, will not be nearly as strong. However, some weakened trees and branches that did not come down during Sandy may do so in the midweek storm, so there will be a risk of additional power outages. Precipitation should be mainly rain across the forecast area due to a strengthening east wind ahead of the storm that should warm the atmosphere enough. Also, upper levels will be warming during the storm. Snow should be limited to the mountains. It is not out of the question that higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA pick up accumulating snow from part of the storm. Friday should be a dry, windy, chilly day behind the storm. An early peek at next weekend indicates fair weather and moderating temperatures.

Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s except around 30 urban centers. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s except some upper 10s inland valley areas. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over south to north followed by rain developing south to north. Potential for some mix/snow higher elevations well NW of Boston. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind, tapering off late. Low 38. High 50 (possibly warmer SE).

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 48.

WEEKEND: Fair weather. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

10:22PM

A low pressure trough hangs on nearby, and a northwesterly flow will deliver chilly weather for the next few days. Clouds will dominate through Saturday with some instability and colder air aloft, but Sunday and the start of next week will feature more sun.

I continue to watch the potential for an East Coast storm for the middle of next week. But at 5 days away it’s still too early to talk about details, other than there is potential for a significant rain and wind event in the forecast area.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 46.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. PM rain/wind. Low 35. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain/PM rain showers. Low 45. High 53.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

3:50PM

November is here, and as if on cue, the weather is turning a bit blustery and cooler. This general pattern will be with us into the start of next week as the trough associated with what was once Sandy, combined with another trough from the west, hangs over eastern Canada, getting reinforced and delivering cool air to New England. This is also a largely dry pattern.

As we reach the middle of next week, things may get a little more active again as we’ll be watching a potential storm on the East Coast. It is far, far too early to even think about details at this point. Just watching the potential for the next couple days, and then will start to try to paint a picture.

Meanwhile, the updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH goes this way…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 49.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 44.

9:16PM

Moving forward from Sandy will be much easier in much of southern New England (with some exceptions on the South Coast) than for our neighbors in NY & NJ. I wish them the best.

Not going to spend any time reviewing. You’ve all seen the news, read the stories, seen the pictures, and experienced whatever you did. It indeed was a very historic storm, and will go down in history alongside the other big ones:  Blizzard of 1888. Blizzard of 1978. All the hurricanes that have impacted the region. Superstorm 1993. The Perfect Storm And others…

The low pressure area that was Sandy will spin down and slowly drift northward across NY Wednesday and down the St. Lawrence River Valley late in the week. It will take until the weekend for the upper low to completely clear the area, so even though wet weather will leave, some clouds will linger at least through Friday and possibly into the start of the weekend. The mild tropical air we had during Tuesday will be replaced gradually with cooler and drier air as the week goes on.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers through early afternoon. Highs 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING (trick or treat): Variably cloudy. Temperature cooling into the 50s. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 51-56. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 54.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 51.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain or snow showers at night. Low 31. High 47.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. Low 34. High 48.

8:24PM

Hello to all the readers! I appreciate you being here, whether you are a frequent participant, lurker, or new to the blog! Thanks for all the great comments and observations and thoughts! I appreciate them! I hope everybody is safe. I realize that some of you reading this are probably reading from a mobile device as you sit in the dark with no power. I hope you get your power restored as soon as possible.

This entry isn’t going to focus too much on what has already happened. We can read comments here, our FB pages, turn on the news, etc. etc. to see the pictures and comments. Some of us have damage in our yards or neighborhoods. Some of us are lucky to this point with not much more than a yard full of leaves. And the coast… I think we’ve seen the worst there, but not out of the woods yet (one more high tide through midnight to worry about).  I don’t think Tuesday’s noontime high tide will cause too much additional trouble. This entry is going to look at the remainder of the storm’s impact on southern New England and a peek ahead into early November.

The center of Sandy is now over NJ. The NHC forecast track was very good, and Sandy took her sharp left turn late in the afternoon and actually strengthened before landfall. This was taking place while the storm was losing tropical characteristics, but she still retains enough of those characteristics to be pulling a slug of warm, tropical air northwestward into southern New England. We have seen the band of steady rain that came across the region late in the afternoon lift to the north and be replaced by rapidly-moving convective showers. This will continue through Tuesday, with even the chance that some thunder occurs. For the next several hours (into late Monday night) these convective showers will be most numerous and will drag down strong winds from just above, and still produce some powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts across much of southern New England, even though the sustained winds will be dropping off. We’ll be seeing these winds which were northeast to east, shift more to the southeast with time. A gradual subsiding of the wind will begin later tonight and continue through Tuesday. As the center of the low pressure area spins down (weakens) slowly, it will drift northward through eastern PA and NY through Wednesday, then down the St. Lawrence Valley Thursday & Friday, not completely letting go of our area until the weekend, when high pressure will dominate.

Here is an updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI, including a look at Halloween Night for those areas trick or treating. Some areas held their trick or treating this past Saturday, and some will likely postpone until this coming weekend due to the cleanup from the storm (I’m sure we’ll see a list of these locations soon)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to  numerous showers, some heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Some of the most intense rain should occur 8:30PM-10:00PM in eastern MA and RI, reaching southern NH as well. Temperatures rising into the 60s and turning more humid. Wind E to SE 20-40 MPH gusting 50-60 MPH (higher in a few locations) early, diminishing gradually overnight. Coastal flooding will continue, and will increase and be moderate in vulnerable areas, especially Cape Cod and the South Coast including RI, for high tides that begin around 8PM and run through midnight depending on location.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Mild & muggy. Highs 65-70. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. A few powerful gusts may still occur in isolated locations where heavier showers are.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 55-60. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Variably cloudy. Temperature around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 43. High 54.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 51.

12:50AM

The format is altered a little for this entry to shorten things up yet cover everything in a forecast for the next 7 days.

Decided to go ahead with the regular Sunday night post. It will just be front-end-loaded with info of course, with an update regarding Sandy and her impact, or the impact of the storm that was once Sandy, as it still loses tropical characteristics just prior to landfall on the coast of NJ. As stated in the previous entry, a large area of strong to damaging wind as well as coastal flooding and storm surge will exist north of the storm center which includes all of southern New England. I will save the wind break down and rainfall and storm surge numbers for the forecast below. Note that the only real changes to this forecast are to speed up the landfall time a little bit, therefore moving up the peak hours of the storm to during the late morning through late evening of Monday. There will be slight adjustments upward to the storm surge numbers and no big changes with the previous wind forecast and rainfall amounts. Still looking for things to subside Tuesday and Wednesday, with more improvement later in the week as November gets underway. The low pressure area that was Sandy will take much of the week to really leave the area, drifting northward through NY Wednesday then down the St. Lawrence River Valley Thursday and Friday. High pressure finally dominates for next weekend, which should be nice.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

Weather: Overcast through Monday night, mostly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Periods of rain/drizzle through Monday morning, an episode of heavier rain Monday afternoon/evening, tapering off to periodic showers Monday night through Tuesday, then showers becoming less numerous and scattered Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Temperatures: Ranging from the lower 50s early Monday to the middle 60s Tuesday & Wednesday afternoons.

Winds: NE-E increasing through Monday afternoon to sustained 25-35 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH coast, but gusts much higher, 40-60 MPH inland and 45-75 MPH coastal areas and some inland higher elevations. Isolated peak gusts above 75 MPH may occur especially South Shore, Cape Cod, and Islands. By later Monday night, winds start to subside slowly but are still strong and gusty at times. Tuesday, winds shift more to the SE 15-25 MPH with a few higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations, and by Wednesday winds are mostly from the S 10-20 MPH.

Coastal Flooding: Full Moon occurring Monday enhances flooding. High tides 11AM Monday, midnight Monday night, and noon Tuesday, are the 3 of most concern, especially the Monday highs. This is when flooding will  peak and storm surge of up to a few feet can occur, especially on the South Coast, parts of Cape Cod, and RI.

Rain amounts and freshwater flooding: Rain amounts of 1 to just over 2 inches will be common, but some 3 or 4 inch and even isolated 5 inch amounts can be expected as winds blow up slope and rainfall is enhanced on the eastern slopes of hills and mountains in central MA into southwestern NH. Flash flooding may occur in these heavier rain areas. Otherwise, just a few areas of minor flooding are possible with street flooding in some locations where leaves block storm drains.

OUTLOOK FOR LATE WEEK… Variably cloudy Thursday & Friday with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.

OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND… Mostly sunny to partly cloudy Saturday & Sunday with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs in the lower to middle 50s.

One quick note! I hope to be online throughout the storm (with the exception of several hours during the day Monday when I will be out). If for some reason a power loss prevents me from updating, I will get on as soon as power is restored. Please, everybody, be smart and safe during the storm, no matter where you are. I hope you are prepared for the worst, but let’s hope for the best! And thanks to all of you for being part of the blog!

2:00AM

Sandy will no longer be Sandy when the impacts of the storm are felt here. But what’s in a name? I’ll leave it to the readers to debate whether or not that makes a difference in how people hear and interpret information. The meteorological truth is that Sandy will be a category one hurricane into Monday as it moves northward off the US Mid Atlantic Coast, and as it begins a left turn toward the NJ coast, it will lose tropical characteristics, and will no longer be tropical (by definition) by the time the center of the storm reaches land on the NJ coast Monday night.

We should not be focusing only on where that center crosses the coast, as the storm already has a very wide wind field and this will expand further as it loses tropical characteristics. This is the reason why significant and some damaging wind will take place in the forecast area in southern New England.

So, this storm, though very significant, will not be a “classic” New England hurricane. Here’s a summary of what to expect in the region starting in southern areas late Sunday night and spreading northward Monday into Monday night, before slowly subsiding Tuesday as the storm spins down over land…

Wind: A moderate northeast breeze will develop Sunday but winds will not be that significant during the day. They will increase at night and build during the day Monday, peaking during the hours of 3PM to midnight Monday afternoon and night. During the peak time, winds will blow from the northeast to east. Sustained winds will be 25-35 MPH inland except 30-40 MPH in higher elevations and 35-45 MPH in coastal locations. Gusts will be 45-65 MPH inland, 55-70 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas. For Cape Cod and the Islands, add 5 to 10 MPH to all of these wind speeds. Isolated peak gusts that are slightly stronger may occur. Again, please remember that the gusts are just that, gusts, not sustained winds. During these gusts are when most of the wind damage takes place.

Coastal flooding: Widespread moderate coastal flooding is likely at the times of high tides, with the most critical high tides around 11AM Monday, midnight Monday night, and noon Tuesday. Areas of major flooding may occur at high tide times in portions of the South Shore of MA, Cape Cod and the Islands, and RI. Storm surge peak will occur on the South Coast of New England for Monday night’s high tide. Storm surge of up to 5 feet above normal tides may occur. Keep in mind that these high tide cycles are occurring during the time of a full moon. Astronomical tides are higher during full and new moon times.

Rain: This storm will NOT be a major rain producer. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be common. Isolated 3 to 4 inch amounts are possible, especially where rainfall can be enhanced by air moving up the slopes of hills in north central MA and southwestern NH. Any flooding from rain would be mostly minor to locally moderate and only in the most flood prone areas.

By Tuesday, the worst will be over, and though winds will still be very gusty it will be much less stormy than Monday. Winds will shift more to the southeast as the low pressure area spins over the interior Northeast. Additional showers will take place, though the heaviest rain will be over. The remains of the storm will continue to spin down and decay on Wednesday over the interior northeastern US. There will be additional showers in our area but some drier air will also work up from the south and southwest with periods of improved weather. As November gets underway, the trough will lift out and be replaced by high pressure and improving weather into next weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of light rain or drizzle late afternoon. Highs 56-61. Wind NE 5-10 MPH to start increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day, gusts around 25-30 MPH may take place by the end of the day Cape Cod & South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain. Lows 50-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coastal areas, with higher gusts.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs around 60. Lows around 55. Wind NE shifting more E later, increasing to 25-45 MPH with gusts 45-70 MPH inland (see above for more detail).

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers. Highs around 65. Lows around 55. Wind SE 20-35 MPH with higher gusts,  slowly subsiding.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few additional episodes of showers. Highs 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 47. High 56.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 55.

THANK YOU EVERYBODY for being patient while it took me forever to update this blog. I was at a conference for nearly 12 hours today, and hit some famous Boston traffic on Route 93 heading back home, and between needing to refuel and rest, the result was a long delay in updating. Thanks for sticking with me! Please use the comments below for questions, observations, and other thoughts regarding this storm or anything weather-related.

Also, if you are on Facebook, don’t forget to “like” the Woods Hill Weather page and tell you friends about it. 🙂

1:59AM

There is still enough spread in the guidance to keep me from getting too confident on the track of Sandy, and precisely which shore she will land upon, and at what intensity, and even whether or not she will still be a tropical system.

I realize the above paragraph makes me sound confused and uncertain, but that’s not the case. Just noting that there is still significant room for error, I will now give my best guess of how the next several days will play out, including the details of the storm.

Friday: A weak boundary between cool air to the north and east and milder air coming from the southwest will hold some areas of clouds in to start the day but most of these will evaporate and move away with sunshine and milder air being dominant during the day and some patchy fog forming at night.

Saturday: A cold front approaches from the west but falls apart against the approaching circulation from Sandy, leaving the day partly sunny and mild and the night fair but with once again some patchy fog.

Sunday: The large circulation of Sandy will make itself known in the form of a northeast breeze and eventually a chance of some rain or drizzle moving in from the Atlantic. At this time, Sandy will still be a hurricane moving northeastward off the coast of the Carolinas.

Monday-Wednesday / Sandy’s Impacts: Sandy will be captured by a trough of low pressure moving into the East Coast States and be drawn north to northwest while losing tropical characteristics and weakening slightly. During this process, the wind field associated with Sandy will expand, as is typical for this kind of transition. High pressure to the north will also have an impact, enhancing winds on the north side of the storm. Threats from Sandy for southern New England will be coastal flooding, some heavy rain, and wind damage from strong easterly winds. The degree of impact will be determined by the track of the storm, as its position will relate directly to the placement of strongest winds and heaviest rain. My best guess as of this posting is that the center of Sandy will reach the New Jersey shore late Monday night or Tuesday morning as a storm that recently lost tropical characteristics after weakening to just below hurricane intensity. Regardless of any weakening and loss of tropical air, Sandy will be a large storm and impact a significant area. In southern New England, this track would mean pounding surf with coastal flooding, most significant along the South Coast, and some heavy rain with localized flooding possible from it, and strong northeast to east wind with some damage possible. The worst of this should take place Monday night into Tuesday. The center of Sandy will do a loop and then should eventually lift more to the north by Wednesday. With luck some drier air coming around the storm’s circulation will get involved and conditions will improve slightly for Halloween. Also, keep in mind that the final track of  the storm is not 100% certain. A further southward track would lessen the impact in the region while a track a bit further north would result in more significant impact.

Forecast details for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TODAY: Clouds giving way to sun. Highs 63-68. Winds variable to S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain or drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 55-60. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind developing. Low 51. High 58.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind continuing. Low 52. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/breezy. Low 51. High 63.