DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

Another hot and humid day today as high pressure remains anchored offshore, but that anchor is going to be pulled up for readjustment shortly. We’ve a cold front approaching, and it brings another good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region later today and part of tonight. Some of the parameters today will be a little less favorable for severe storms than what we had last evening, but I can’t rule out a couple in the cluster or segments of storms that will form and move into the area. Overall, the trend will be for strongest storms to occur in the western reaches of our region, with a general weakening trend and lessening coverage trend as we see them head eastward, with a general window of 4PM to 10PM from west to east, though this may have to be adjusted a little on its front-end and back-end, pending the initial location of storm development. Overnight, the cold front moves through fairly quietly. Previously, I speculated we may see additional showers part of Thursday morning, but this may not be the case, with just some lingering morning cloudiness to deal with and a slower drop in the humidity – not a quick enter of crisp, dry air. So even without any showers, Thursday is still a transition day in terms of lowering dew points, which will be a process that takes place from northwest to southeast under a mix of sun and clouds. Canadian high pressure comes for a visit with fair, seasonable, low humidity weather Friday and Saturday, before it slides offshore Sunday and we see a slight up-tick in both temperature and humidity, but still quite nice! A weak cold front approaches later Sunday, but outside of a slight chance of a late-day or evening shower making it into northern areas, I don’t expect there will be much evidence of its presence, so we do have a really nice weekend coming up…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Potential thunderstorms central MA / southwestern NH by evening. Highs 88-95, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+ but can fall below 70 in some down-slope areas on lee sides of hills. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms progress eastward in clusters / segments but also diminish with time, then end most places except potentially lingering into overnight to the south of Boston. Areas of fog forming late evening / overnight especially South Coast region. Lows 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH, but can be strong and gusty for brief times around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with most clouds including areas of fog South Coast in the morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into and through the 60s from northwest to southeast. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 58-65, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 50 to lower 60s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest at the coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog develops. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler though in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Maybe an evening shower reaches southern NH. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Higher humidity returns next week but probably without a hot spell. Shower/thunderstorm chances are highest in the July 23-25 period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat indicated at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

“The heat pump” aka the Bermuda high keeps on going for a couple more days, giving us hot and humid weather through Wednesday. Today’s thunderstorm threat sets up differently than yesterday’s, with fairly quiet weather through the afternoon – minimal chance of a pop-up storm – with most activity forming out in NY State and charging toward New England, but arriving as weakening showers and possible leftover thunderstorms in the WHW forecast area from west to east during the course of this evening. The speed of the activity will determine how far east it survives before dissipating, but in general many areas will end up seeing little or no activity, with the greatest chance of seeing “something” the further northwest you are in the region. We do it again tomorrow with storm threats, but this time the timing is potentially earlier with a pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front, so thunderstorm chances go up by mid afternoon and continue into evening / night from west to east. There are still details to be figured out for this, so check tomorrow’s update for sure! The front will be a little sluggish to make it all the way through the region, so Thursday morning carries a shower and potential thunderstorm chance at least near the South Coast up to the South Shore of MA into the morning, otherwise look for a transition day to cooler and less humid air from Canada. Friday and Saturday we’ll get the benefit of this air mass as high pressure dominates with seasonable and dry weather – perfect for summer outdoor activities (don’t forget your sun screen!).

TODAY: Any early fog patches dissipate. Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast and 76-83 Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible especially northwest of Boston. Partly to mostly clear overnight but patchy fog forms in lower elevations. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning and the MA South Shore to South Coast. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into/through 60s. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 81-88, but a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler though in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

High pressure slides offshore allowing an increase in humidity but still mainly fair weather early in the period. A nearby frontal boundary brings a better chance of showers / thunderstorms mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

A push of drier air early period then humidity returns again with a few showers / storms possible. No prolonged major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

The Bermuda High keeps us hot and humid through Wednesday. You’ll want to take steps to be heat-cautious if you will be outside especially during the late morning through early evening hours during the next three days. Additionally, there will be a daily opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to occur, but there are limitations in location / coverage today and tomorrow, with mainly pop-up afternoon to early evening activity today, mostly isolated to scattered coverage, and late-day to evening isolated to scattered coverage tomorrow, favoring areas well northwest of Boston. However, while coverage is limited, any storms that do occur can be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Any storm can produce torrential rain and dangerous lightning, and while these are not used as criteria for “severe”, they should always be considered as potential threats (flash flooding and lightning strikes) when storms occur. Wednesday, the approach of a cold front has the higher potential to trigger a more widespread shower and thunderstorm event from later afternoon into the night, but some fine-tuning will still be needed on this day’s threat. The cold front moving through overnight and early Thursday may still cause a few showers near the South Coast Thursday morning, but overall that day will become mainly dry with the heat and humidity pushed out. High pressure builds in Friday with seasonably warm, dry weather and comfortable air with much lower humidity.

TODAY: A batch of clouds and a few sprinkles move through early to mid morning west to east, then mostly sunny for several hours before more clouds build, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening. Any storms can be strong to severe. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 South Coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Potential isolated to scattered late-day / evening thunderstorms favoring central MA and southwestern to south central NH. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but again patchy fog develops in low elevation areas. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning-midday time-frame mainly MA South Shore to South Coast. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into/through 60s. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy interior lower elevation ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny – few fair weather clouds. Highs 81-88, but a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

High pressure brings seasonably warm, dry weather to the region July 20 before moving offshore July 21, allowing a little more humidity and the chance of a shower or t-storm as a weak cold front approaches. That front washes out and the first half of next week looks warm and more humid with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but mainly rain-free weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

No changes to the outlook. A fairly weak westerly flow pattern on the larger scale. Slightly variable temperatures, a little heat, but no long hot spells, a break in the humidity may come early period before it makes a comeback. Limited, but occasionally present shower and thunderstorm chances too.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

High pressure brings lower humidity but still very warm to hot weather today, but despite it being quite warm, you’ll notice the difference between the clammy / muggy feel yesterday and the less heavy air in place today. High pressure slips offshore and resumes the job of heat and humidity pump Monday through Wednesday, with many areas seeing 3-days of 90+ for high temps (some areas that hit 90 today can have a 4-day heatwave). Dew points will also become oppressive again with 70+ for most of the region and just a chance we can experience some local or regional down sloping a couple of the days to reduce dew points below 70 in some areas. Our thunderstorm chances will be variable, with Monday’s opportunity seeming to be confined to late-day and mostly west of I-95 as a weak disturbance approaches, but needing solar heating to trigger storms. Any that do form can be strong to severe, but I’m not expecting significant coverage of such activity. Watch for any bigger storms to try to survive closer to the coast but probably lose the battle to the loss of solar heating in the evening. Tuesday’s threat looks like air mass / orographic pop-up storms favoring southwestern NH and central MA, with isolated coverage. Wednesday’s threat is the most formidable, associated with the approach of a cold front, and brings a better shot at widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, favoring the afternoon and evening hours from west to east. This is forecast day 4 as it stands on today’s update, so I can’t go into any more detail than that at this point. Thursday appears that it will be a transition day, with a slower-moving front. We can still see some showers and thunderstorms around for part of the day, favoring southern and eastern areas and favoring the first half of the day, while we see the arrival of a Canadian air mass from the northwest. The details of this day also need to be fine-tuned as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Patchy fog/stratus interior lower elevations and parts of South Coast until mid morning, otherwise abundant sun. Highs 86-93 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew points reduce to the middle to lower 60s. Wind W to NW up to 10 MPH, but local coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: A clear sky, but ground fog patches form in interior lower elevations. Lows 62-69, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W to SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early fog patches dissipate, sun dominates, then clouds appear later in the day. Potential thunderstorms late-day favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 South Coast. Dew point rises to upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and variable around any storms.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning-midday time-frame and southern/eastern areas (eastern MA, RI, eastern CT). Highs 80-87. Dew point lowering into/through 60s. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

July 19-20 are expected to be fair weather, seasonably warm, low humidity days with Canadian air and high pressure in control. High pressure slides back offshore and we build some heat and humidity back during the July 21-23 period, along with some increase and the shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Typical fairly weak westerly flow pattern overall brings some changing temperatures, probably a reduction of humidity before it returns, some heat, but no long heatwave, and a few shower / thunderstorm chances. Late July in New England.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

Your weekend features a split – with warm and muggy weather today, showers and possible thunderstorms until mid afternoon, then drying out. We have to wait for a disturbance to pass through while a quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisects the region. This front will begin an eastward drift, and its northeast-to-southwest orientation means that the bulk of the rainfall coverage from the main event this morning and midday will be generally from the I-95 belt southeastward, though areas west of there are seeing showers initially. The region southeast of I-95 and especially south of I-90 stands the greatest chance of some flooding issues from heavier rain as quite a swath of rain will be moving through between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. While a drying trend takes place from west to east starting from midday on, one additional bit of instability combined with daytime heating can trigger a couple isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms over interior southern NH and MA later in the day, but odds are most locations will see nothing from this potential. Just keep an eye out if you are out and about. Tonight, drier air arrives. This isn’t genuine Canadian crispness but noticeably lower dew point air that will set up the second half of the “split” I referred to above regarding the weekend weather, and that is a Sunday with plenty of sun and lower humidity, but still quite warm to even hot, but very nice for outdoor summertime activities. Monday through Wednesday, the heat of summer, along with higher humidity, will be back as the Bermuda High re-takes control of the weather. I think the atmosphere will be unstable enough to allow for the potential for at least interior late-day thunderstorms Monday, too stable for anything Tuesday, and then we’ll have to watch for the approach of storms later Wednesday, which is going to be depending on the timing of an a cold front heading this way. This part of the forecast needs to be re-examined and fine-tuned in future updates.

TODAY: Cloudy until midday with showers and embedded thunderstorms, most numerous and heaviest I-95 southeastward where local flooding is possible. Clearing trend midday on from west to east with sun returning, but a few more clouds pop up and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly interior southern NH and northern MA later in the day. Highs 75-82 South Coast, coolest Cape Cod, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew points 70+, lowering from northwest to southeast late-day. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to W by late-day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forms interior lower elevation locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point falls to 60s. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 85-92. Dew point falls to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Few interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Potential late-day thunderstorms, favoring western locations. Highs 86-93. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Potential afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Canadian air – dry, lower humidity, seasonable temperatures July 18-20 (note that July 18 may be a transition day if we have a slower-moving front). Humidity and shower chances increase later in the period as high pressure shifts offshore.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

A weak zonal flow pattern keeps a similar pattern going. A shot of humidity with some heat, breaks mid period with another Canadian air mass.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

No big changes in the overall picture heading into and through the weekend. We’re looking at high pressure – The Bermuda High – still in place while a trough of low pressure hangs out nearby on the periphery of the high pressure area’s circulation. This set-up is a warm to hot and humid one, although a busy breeze and a slight reduction in humidity yesterday took the edge off that. We don’t get especially hot today or Saturday while the humidity remains rather high, and there will be a breeze too – though not as gusty as the last couple days. We’ll also look at some shower threats, but no long-lasting period of wet weather. Today’s threat looms until around midday for areas mostly south of I-90 with a narrow ribbon of moisture allowing for some pop up shower development. This shifts to more of an isolated air mass pop-up situation this afternoon, with less coverage but the potential for a few isolated torrential downpours including thunder. Most areas will not see these, so if you have outdoor plans go about them, but keep an eye on the sky / radar. On Saturday, a disturbance rippling up the flow enhances the shower and thunderstorm potential for the first 2/3 of the day but this then ends from west to east during the afternoon as a boundary with drier air arrives. This lower dew point air will be evident at night and on Sunday, despite it still being a very warm day on Sunday, with abundant sun. Early next week, humidity makes a comeback but may do so with a flare up of thunderstorms on Monday before we have a more tranquil but hot and humid day Tuesday. Details to be worked out…

TODAY: Morning to midday sees variable clouds and scattered showers, some downpours, mainly south of I-90. Afternoon is mostly sunny to partly cloudy with isolated showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 82-89, bit cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms morning to early afternoon, then ending west to east. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Few interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

A more westerly air flow dominates. This drives a frontal system through with thunderstorm chances a little earlier than previously expected – window July 17 into July 18 – timing to be pinned down more specifically. Fair, seasonably warm and lower humidity weather July 19-20. Next unsettled weather may arrive late in the period as higher humidity makes a return.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

A westerly air flow allows some up and down temperatures and a couple shower / thunderstorm threats, but overall typical late July weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

A trough trailing the remnant low that was once Beryl will bring some scattered showers to our region this morning before we return to more sun. Another very warm and muggy day is in store, but the ventilating breeze that developed yesterday will continue today, removing the stagnation and also reducing the humidity a little in downslope regions. What’s left of that trough will be near the South Coast and Cape Cod into Friday with this region seeing the best chance of additional pop up showers. The thunderstorm chance is down during the next 48 hours with more activity taking the form of just tropical showers. Saturday, a ripple-back of the trough and a quick-moving disturbance from the west will combine to boost the shower and thunderstorm chance for the morning to early afternoon – details and timing TBD, but this should end during the afternoon as a front pulls through the region. This will introduce somewhat less humid air, but you won’t really notice that until Sunday, which will feature fair weather and lots of sun. Monday may end up being an interesting day as the humidity tries to make a comeback and a disturbance approaches from the west, setting up a thunderstorm chance. More later…

TODAY: Abundant clouds and scattered showers, a few possibly briefly heavy, during this morning, ending west to east midday, then lots of sun with passing clouds for the balance of the day. Highs 83-90 but a little cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point in 70s but may drop below 70 at times on lee sides of hills. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches return to South Coast. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Pop up showers are possible but mainly South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 83-90. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly morning and midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Few interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

A spell of heat and humidity returns for July 16-17 with only isolated t-storms possible. A cold front brings more widespread shower/storms July 18 followed by a push of summer polar air and pleasant weather July 19-20 as a stronger westerly air flow takes over the pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A westerly air flow allows some up and down temperatures and a couple shower / thunderstorm threats, but overall typical July weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

The Bermuda High maintains control of the weather. This will be the case through late week, into the weekend. Meanwhile, the remnant low and moisture that once constituted Hurricane Beryl will track northeastward, passing west and north of our region. The primary effect will be to maintain the high humidity that we have. The passage of the system will also result in more wind during the next couple of days, making the air feel less stagnant. What will be notably absent in our region is rainfall related to the remnants of Beryl. The bulk of the moisture will be passing to our west and north, producing a significant rainfall event in parts of NY and northern New England. We may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon in parts of north central MA and interior southern NH. As a weak trough trailing the remnant low passes by there could be a few more showers and isolated downpours moving eastward through the region on Thursday morning. This feature will slow down and hang around Cape Cod and the South Coast through Friday. Those areas stand the best chance of seeing additional pop up showers and possible thunderstorms on Friday. Another disturbance crossing the region on Saturday, enhances the chance of showers and thunderstorms for part of the day. Slightly drier air should arrive later Saturday through Sunday – not “crispy drier” but “lower humidity” drier.

TODAY: Areas of stratus/fog early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with a few isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon mainly north central MA and interior southern NH. Highs 85-92, but a little cooler South Coast region. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms through midday. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A pop up shower or thunderstorm possible mainly South Coast and Cape Cod. Highs 83-90. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Heat / humidity dominate the first half of next week, may reduce later in the week. A couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

No big changes to the pattern, warm to occasionally hot, brief breaks of drier air in a humid overall set-up. A few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Very warm to hot and humid weather will continue to be the rule as we head through the middle of this week, with the classic Bermuda High in place. A weak disturbance moving through from the west later today will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance interior mountains / hills with the help of orography, and coverage will be somewhat limited. Next to watch are the remains of Beryl as they track north and northeast through the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. The trends on reliable guidance have been to shift the bulk of the moisture from this system to our west, and I do feel this will be the case, with Wednesday afternoon just bringing the chance of a shower or thunderstorm to some interior areas while most of the rain and thunderstorm activity occurs further west in NY State and into the mountains of northern New England Wednesday night. Isolated activity could occur a bit further east and south from these areas, which would include western and northwestern portions of the WHW forecast area. A trough trailing from the remnant low can push a few more showers and storms throughout this during Thursday, but it may clear out quickly enough that much of that day is salvaged, and much of Friday too with just very warm and humid weather and a minimal chance of additional pop up showers and storms. Saturday holds a small wildcard as we see a boundary nearby and possibly a disturbance that has to traverse it, enhancing the shower and thunderstorm chance once again. Lower confidence on this part of the forecast.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas and hotter some interior valleys. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Fog patches redevelop. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, may favor areas mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 83-90, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly far west and northwest of Boston. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms most likely during the first 2/3 of the day, may diminish later. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A pop up shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Slightly drier air and fair weather July 14, but the overall pattern remains warm to hot, fairly humid, and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible at times – though not an excessively wet pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

General pattern – westerly flow aloft, low amplitude high pressure western Atlantic, weak trough Great Lakes to Upper Midwest. Warm pattern here, no persistent high heat, a few shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

This week will definitely be an example of summer’s definition. We start it with high pressure off the East Coast, “The Bermuda High”, which hangs around out there all week really. Ever-so-slightly drier air tried to work down from the north yesterday and tries to hang on today, most noticeably north of I-90, but the higher humidity wins out in all areas by Tuesday and then lingers through Friday. In addition a trough to the west helps set up an avenue for moisture to create showers and thunderstorms, beginning later Tuesday. The locations and coverage of these will depend on several factors, with probably low coverage in the region favoring areas away from the coast later Tuesday, favoring areas west and north Wednesday, then more widespread in coverage Thursday, with a little more uncertainty Friday. Enhancing the moisture for these will be the remains of Beryl which will be traveling through the Northeast between late Wednesday and Friday too. There will be a lot of day-to-day fine-tuning to do, so check updates (and comments where I sometimes add new thoughts after the daily update).

TODAY: Lots of sun. Highs 86-93 except a little cooler coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s, lowest north, highest south. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, some light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation and South Coast fog patches. Lows 67-74, warmest in urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches redevelop. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, may favor areas mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 83-90, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible at times. Highs 82-89. Dew point 70+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Watching for a south and east push of the boundary lessening the shower and thunderstorm chance during the July 13-14 weekend, but uncertain. Pattern transitions to a flatter offshore ridge and a little more westerly flow heading into the following week with still warm weather, but the opportunity to get drier air into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

General pattern – westerly flow aloft, low amplitude high pressure western Atlantic, weak trough Great Lakes to Upper Midwest. Warm pattern here, no persistent high heat, a few shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

As we wrap up the holiday weekend (or holiday week for some, including me haha) we see warm and still humid weather, though behind a “kind-of” cold front that went through last night we will see a slight reduction in dew points during the course of today and into Monday as a small bubble of high pressure builds in. We can still see a couple isolated pop-up showers and maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon / early evening mainly near and east of I-95 and near and south of I-90, but most areas will remain quiet today. And don’t get used to any slight drying later today and Monday, because we have Florida weather on the way for Tuesday and midweek as tropical air returns, along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms once again. Also, we’ll need to factor in remnant moisture from Beryl, which after its long, historic early-season trek across the tropical Atlantic, southern Caribbean, Yucatan, and western Gulf of Mexico, will come ashore for the final time on the central Texas Coast. A landfall further south (South Texas or Mexico) would have likely buried that moisture and we’d probably have never seen it, but a landfall further north makes the moisture more available to the westerlies that deliver much of our weather, so it now becomes a factor. It’s hard to say how much it will add to our rainfall potential and exactly when that will be, but right now looking at a broad-brush window of time beginning sometime Wednesday and lasting through Thursday for the opportunity, and we can pin down the details as we get closer to that time.

TODAY: Clouds dominate the morning, especially I-95/I-90 east and south. More sun afternoon, but pop-up showers and possibly a thunderstorm later in the day once again favoring areas east and south of I-95/I-90. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point starts out 70-75 but reduces to 65-70. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH, but some more direct light coastal sea breezes may develop midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. A few fog patches form, especially interior lower elevation locations. Lows 63-70, warmest in urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevation locations. Lows 63-70, warmest in urban locations. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

Based on current projections, the shower and thunderstorm chances and humid weather continue through the July 13-14 weekend before some potentially drier air arrives. Temperatures near to above normal. Much to sort out and fine-tune in this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Still expecting a large scale pattern of westerly flow aloft, lower amplitude high pressure off the East Coast, trough position often in Ohio Valley to Great Lakes, may shift back to Upper Midwest at least for a short while. General weather idea here in this pattern is warm but not persistently hot, more humid than not, and a few opportunities for showers / thunderstorms.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

We’re at our most humid in this stretch of mugginess this holiday weekend, and the wettest weather for many areas will take place before noontime today as the remains of a convective complex cross the region from west to east (doing so now as I write). There are still some active thunderstorms in eastern CT up to about the MA border as of 8:45 a.m. while to the north it’s a gradually diminishing area of elevated-base rainfall. This area should continue to diminish gradually as it moves east but also lifts a bit north. Greatest rain coverage will be from eastern CT and northwestern RI through east central MA and south central to southeastern NH mid morning, with areas to the southeast not immune to passing showers / downpours / thunderstorms, but activity should last a shorter time there.

After the mid morning activity, we stay in the soupy warm sector much of today but there is a little less support to trigger numerous showers and storms, so I’m just looking for mostly pop-up isolated activity to be possible. One more line may try to organize later on in the day as a cold front ambles across the region, but this activity probably fades before reaching the coastal plain this evening and we just have a soupy air mass and not much more rain for most areas after what happens this morning. Later tonight, the front will cross and bring a reduction in the humidity which will become more noticeable Sunday. As the front is lazy to move through, some additional high and mid level cloudiness will be generated over the boundary and may limit our sun for a portion of Sunday morning, especially in southeastern areas, before we see more sunshine. It doesn’t look like we pop any showers Sunday, or Monday too as high pressure has a little more influence and there is more sunshine. The next disturbance from the west arrives later Tuesday to early Wednesday when we have another period of time when showers and thunderstorms can occur.

TODAY: Overcast with showers and embedded thunderstorms crossing much of the region mid morning, exiting late morning, then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower or thunderstorms possible from midday on. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers into 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with potential lingering showers eastern and/or southern areas. Sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Current cautious call on when shower chances are highest: July 11 and 14.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

No big changes here. Still expecting a general westerly flow aloft with flatter high pressure off the East Coast, and a trough in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. General result is a warm pattern but no persistent hot weather. Humidity is often higher and there are a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities which of course cannot be pinpointed many days in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

We move into a little bit of an unsettled stretch now for the balance of the holiday weekend, but when people see “unsettled” and “weekend” in the same phrase, they get nervous. There’s still plenty of nice weather to be had even during this time where clouds will be dominant and shower / t-storm chances are to be monitored. A healthy batch of showers, some heavy, went through MA this morning, moving offshore as we enter mid morning. The remainder of the day will feature a lot of clouds, partial sun, and still the chance of a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm, but the vast majority of the remaining hours will be rain-free in any given location. It will be warm (not hot) and on the humid side. We will get a shot of more oppressive humidity on Saturday before a cold front slides through and knocks it back down somewhat on Sunday. Similar to yesterday’s outlook, we will have to watch for a couple to a few batches of showers and thunderstorms in the region during the span of Saturday’s calendar day, which should then largely move offshore by Sunday, though some may linger early in eastern and southern areas. Clouds may also hang tough for a while Sunday before we finally get into more sunshine as the day passes. Early next week, high pressure brings fair, warm conditions Monday. By Tuesday, high pressure offshore and high pressure in the Midwest puts a trough sandwiched between them, and the southwesterly air flow will transport moisture into our region, increasing the shower and thunderstorm chance once again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun. Early showers eastern coastal areas exit, then pop-up showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, but greatest chance early morning and mid afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers into 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with potential lingering showers eastern and/or southern areas. Sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Early call on when shower chances are highest: First half of July 10, much of July 11, and end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

No major changes from the previous outlook. Indications of a generally westerly flow aloft with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes and Midwest and weaker high pressure off the East Coast. This is a typical summertime pattern for here, warm, a hot day or two, on the humid side, a few shower/thunderstorm chances from time to time but fair weather more often than unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy Independence Day! I’ve been eyeing a frontal boundary set to pass through the region today, weakening / washing out as it does so, but it holds just enough impact to produce a few showers this morning, mainly north of I-90, and, with the help of a South Coast sea breeze boundary, potentially initiate a few more this afternoon, mainly south of I-90. A little disturbance coming along tonight can bring a very late evening or overnight shower or thunderstorm to some areas, but that activity will be fairly low coverage. Other than those few showers and maybe a spot storm around today, and some fog patches which may form this evening near the South Coast, I don’t see much in the way of weather-related interruption for daytime 4th of July activities and evening fireworks displays. As always, keep an eye on the sky, and the radar if you can, and stay safe. As we move through the extended holiday weekend, and you can include Monday in this if you are lucky enough to have done so, we’ll see some unsettled weather around for a while Friday and Saturday, and more settled weather Sunday and Monday. The frontal boundary that comes by today, even though it’s not showing much contrast from one side to another, sits around Friday just to the south when a few showers can form over it with the help of an approaching disturbance from the west. As a trough moves into the Great Lakes this weekend, a stronger push of moisture will occur into the Northeast Saturday, upping the potential for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms at any point during that day. While I wouldn’t cancel plans, keep in mind that this is the day that has the highest chance of outdoor plans being interrupted by weather. The passage of a warm front early in the day will open the door to oppressive humidity, but this should drop off again during Sunday as a cold front settles through. Clouds may hang on for a while on Sunday before sun reappears, and it will be quite warm even behind the front, including Monday, which will feature fair weather.

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy morning with passing showers possible. Partly sunny afternoon with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly south of I-90. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower is possible, especially late evening and overnight. Patchy fog South Coast. Lows 63-70, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, but greatest chance early morning and mid afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises to 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers to lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning, sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. It sounds worse than it is, as I don’t expect persistent major heat. There will also be more rain-free time than raining time. Day-to-day details have to be worked out closer to each time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

No major changes from the previous outlook. Indications of a generally westerly flow aloft with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes and Midwest and weaker high pressure off the East Coast. This is a typical summertime pattern for here, warm, a hot day or two, on the humid side, a few shower/thunderstorm chances from time to time but fair weather more often than unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

With Independence Day on a Thursday this year, there isn’t really a clear cut “4th of July Weekend” as we like to call it, but using the day-rounding process, with the holiday just 2 days away from the standard weekend, it’s basically the weekend for all intents and purposes for the next 5 days – this forecast period – if you include today as a “get-away day”. So here we are in a stretch of weather-important days for plans that include travel, pools, beaches, cookouts and other gatherings, and of course many fireworks displays over a stretch of nights. And the weather doesn’t look all that bad for most of the time, to be honest. We have a few showers and thunderstorms to dodge, no doubt, as would often be the case in many 5-day stretches in early summertime, but we’ve certainly had more unfriendly patterns than the one that will be ours for this time period.

Today, high pressure governs with fairly comfortable humidity but a little warmer than yesterday. You’ll also notice some cloud patches fanning across the sky from northwest to southeast as the air warms up aloft too. A “quiet” warm front will slide through during today and this evening, made evident only by the cloud patches but no precipitation, so it’s going to be a really nice day! Weak low pressure will travel north of our region tonight and Thursday, and a weak cold front trailing it will move into the region until it gets to about the South Coast where it essentially becomes indiscernible. Nevertheless, this boundary can help create a few passing showers mainly during the morning hours north of I-90, and along with a sea breeze boundary on Thursday can initiate a few more showers mainly south of I-90 Thursday afternoon, which I do expect to fade away for evening fireworks. While humidity levels will be noticeably up for Independence Day, it won’t be oppressive, and there should be a ventilating breeze if you’re outside, with cooler air to be found at the shoreline compared to inland locations. If there are any issues with fireworks, as previously mentioned, there could be a few fog patches near the South Coast during the evening on Thursday. Hopefully they don’t form extensively enough to hinder fireworks views. Looking beyond the holiday to the rest of the weekend, the pattern is a little more unsettled, but not bad. Friday’s weather will feature more cloudiness especially across southern portions of the region with the hold frontal boundary still hanging around there, but there should be partial sun too – more to the north – and only a limited chance of a passing shower at some point, nothing that I see as causation for cancelling any outdoor plans. With the larger scale pattern starting to feature a trough in the Midwest and Great Lakes, another low pressure area is expected to travel to our north over the weekend, dragging another warm front / cold front combo through our area. The warm front should trigger showers late Friday night into Saturday morning under an abundance of clouds, but we likely break out into some sun on Saturday with a spike of more oppressive humidity, though not especially hot – just quite warm. We’ll have to watch for another shower or thunderstorm sometime later Saturday to the early hours of Sunday, depending on the timing of a trailing cold front. Indications are this point are for limited activity with this front, despite the high humidity, but with these conditions you can’t really rule out at least some scattered downpours at some point, so keep this in mind during that Saturday PM to Sunday AM time period and I’ll fine-tune that part of the forecast asap. Cloudiness may linger around on Sunday even after the front goes by as there is no real strong push of dry Canadian air to be found this time… However I would expect the muggy air of Saturday to be replaced by at least less humid air for Sunday. Again, this will be something to refine in coming updates.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A couple passing showers possible north of I-90 morning. A pop up shower possible south of I-90 afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog South Coast region. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A possible late-day shower in a few locations. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60+ Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers possible, mainly morning to midday. Chance of a late-day thunderstorm favoring areas to the weest. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs toward 70. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Pattern next week puts high pressure in the Midwest and adjacent Canada, and another high off the Atlantic Coast, with our region in between, where a boundary will reside. This increases the chance for high humidity and episodic showers and thunderstorms. But it’s important to note, this is not likely a “rainy week” but rather a humid, hit and miss shower/storm pattern. Much detail to be worked out.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Pattern for mid month strongest indications are for westerly air flow aloft, high pressure still off the East Coast but flatter / weaker, and a trough more persistent Midwest / Great Lakes. For our area that’s a warm pattern, not persistently hot though, more often humid than dry, and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities but more fair weather than unsettled weather.