DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)
As we head through the final few days of spring and start summer this week (solstice is Thursday at 4:50 p.m. EDT), we have some intense summer heat to talk about. But before we get there, a day and part of another day of transition, after a comfortable weekend. Today we see some varying cloud cover in response to a warm front moving across the region. It is this front that opens the door to the hot weather, and as high pressure builds offshore at the surface and a strong upper level ridge dominates the East Coast, we’ll see the heat build quickly tomorrow through mid week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. It’s when we get to the end of the week that the puzzle to solve is a cold front dropping southward from Canada, with another surface high up there representing a cooler air mass. As has been my thought process for a while, I think that front will move through the region on Friday – exact timing to be a factor in high temps and any drop off that day. As far as any other rain threats leading up to the frontal situation, there would about up to about a 10% chance of a pop up air mass thunderstorm in a few locations Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoons. Don’t count on seeing any in one particular location, but keep in mind that the chance is greater than 0%. In addition, during the hottest weather this week, the southwesterly air flow that is transporting the heat into our region will pass over ocean water and therefore the typical modifying influence in temperature will take place for the South Coast region, especially Cape Cod.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around or over 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP approaches 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)
Forecast scenario for the June 22-23 weekend is for the frontal boundary that comes through Friday to stay just south of the region on Saturday with a shower/t-storm chance well south and west of Boston, fair elsewhere, moderate humidity, and not too hot (70s coast, 80s inland), and the frontal boundary to try to make a come-back on Sunday with more clouds and potentially more of a shower threat eventually, but still not hot (70s coast, around 80 inland). We may get back into a little bit of very warm to hot weather and notable humidity during the first part of next week, but with some retrogression of large scale features, including the high pressure ridge that causes this week’s heat, this would be a far less intense spell of heat, and may come with additional showers / t-storms with a disturbance or two moving through the region from the west and northwest. Much to fine-tune.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)
Pattern for end of June / start of July looks the same with high pressure centered in the Midwest and a west to northwest flow here, limited heat but variable temperatures, dry most of the time but a few shower / storm chances.