One More Summer Day, then Spring Finally Begins!

96 Comments

3:35PM

The remarkably warm pattern is about to break down, and be replaced by a weather pattern more typical of March. Yes, it’s true.

Before this happens, one more Summery day will occur Thursday, with high temperatures going over 80 degrees in most locations in southern New England, the exception being in a few coastal spots where a westerly wind passes over cooler water first (parts of Cape Cod, for example). Yesterday, I described how a city like Concord NH can approach or even reach 90 in this set-up. Today, I will make a forecast high temp for Concord NH, and I expected them to fall shy of the big nine-O, topping out at 88. I’ll give Boston 85, Bedford MA 86, Taunton MA the same. And stubbornly, I’ll leave a very slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast for areas south of the Mass Pike where I still believe a boundary may set up for a time during the afternoon. This may prove to be a complete non-event, but I’ll leave it there. I’d rather forecast a pop up storm and have it not take place rather than not forecast it and be surprised.

Friday: Transition day. A cold front will have passed in the early morning hours, and though it will still be a very mild day for March, you’ll notice a significant cool-down compared to Thursday, as a northerly wind blows.

The weekend: The cooling trend will continue, and as high pressure builds to the north and low pressure develops to the south, expect it to eventually turn unsettled. Sunday may turn out to be a wet day, and with enough cold air around at night, some areas may even see some showers of mixed precipitation and snow.

The early part of next week looks drier and chilly for southern New England as a storm slowly moves into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Beyond this, a somewhat active, cooler pattern may become established, though it does not look like we see any major precipitation-producers for a while. Because of this, the low-moisture problem will persist, and outdoor fire danger will be running high.

Forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING: Sunshine. Temperature in the 70s except 60s some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the middle 40s inland valleys to middle 50s coastline. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny except some building clouds south of the Mass Pike with an isolated thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. High from the middle 70s Cape Cod to 80s most areas (see above for a few specifics). Wind WSW over far southern areas, WNW elsewhere, 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds moving in from north to south. Slight chance of a rain shower mainly north of Boston. Low 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy early then partly to mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 40. High 55.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain during the day and rain or snow showers later at night. Low 35. High 45.

MONDAY: Clearing. Low 30. High 47.

TUESDAY: Sunny then variably cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 46.

96 thoughts on “One More Summer Day, then Spring Finally Begins!”

  2. If ur still not ready to let go of winter, may I suggest the northwest US. Several FEET of snow have fallen in the past week in the mtns of Wash, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. Nice to know at least some ski areas will be open past march.

  5. I think Sundays event will be a nonevent, other than a few passing showers I wouldn’t expect much more than a quarter of an inch of rain at the most, hope everyone is enjoying a nice spring day 🙂

  6. Thanks tk, ur keeping the Possibility of snow in there? What do u see that I’m not or maybe I’m missing, take it easy 🙂

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Although I am loving this weather, it still seems kind of weird. A lot of plants are starting to bloom and yet you look at the trees and they are so bare. My husband is complaining of “spring fever” and usually I experience that too. But I think the reason I don’t have it is because the winter was such a disappointment and it’s so nice to go through a cold and snowy, long winter and then have spring blossom forth. I still believe we could have snow any time into even May – but as we were out doing errands today, knowing it is still March I kind of imagined some snow banks to still be around. It doesn’t seem right – but then, it’s what Mother Nature decides. I am loving the longer days, ‘though. Also would like to see some rain – we need it.

    1. U should see all the trees here, drive south of Boston down towards foxboro, alot of trees r turning green, I did notice a big difference driving north of Boston they were bare, it looks like late April early may down here

    1. My forsythia are bloomed and the buds on the neighbors tree that sheds are all over my deck. I have no idea what kind of tree it is. Little red things all over

      Rainshine I did notice the sky. It was a brilliant, perfect blue.

      1. I tried looking up what kind of tree that might be that would have red buds falling and couldn’t find what it might be. Maybe ask your neighbor – nicely, mentioning them all over your deck? 🙂 Or maybe not!

        1. Hahahahaha. This is neighbor whose kids use my car as a backstop for their baseball games :)). It’s odd that the red buds come out and then fall off and finally leaves form. You are so nice to have tried to find out the tree type. Thank you!

  9. Heading out for the towns 300th birthday party. I am heading out in shorts for the first Time. It feels good after spending the day working in a hot electrical vault.

    1. Too many sinners on jets. I can’t see him with that team. I dont mean that in any way other than being honest. I love Tebows openness with his faith

  11. Big news in the NFL today with the Tebow news and the punishment handed down to the Saints.

  14. Ok than. This tebow thing is getting crazy. He now gets to choose jets or jacksonville, yes you heard me right. He picks, this is breaking news on ESPN. I could care less where he goes. I suspect he is off to Florida.

  15. I also notice tk put 22 degrees for a low next Wed and I don’t see any temps getting close to that in area,, will c 🙂

    1. that would work great for me, getting closer to the 5 days of lows below freezing left that i predicted! :)~

      1. And really far away still from the high number I guessed.

        If we have a freeze will the darned mosquitoes die

        1. I hope some do die. I am a believer in the whole food chain thing, but even if some mosquitos die, there are PLENTY more where that came from.

        2. i want the mosquitoes to die but the cold will have negative effects on plants in the garden and flowering trees that have been flowering or spreading leaves will suffer if we get below 32 degrees. I guess i will be needing to take out the garden tarp out and cover the plant that have been growing as well as the bushes that i planted one year ago which will die if not protected

    2. Very cool – thank you – let’s see if this works – if not I’ll have egg on my face “:oops:”

  17. Still 70 degrees in Burlington, VT as we approach 11PM on March 21st. Unbelievable! I would be surprised if any ski resorts are able to remain open after this weekend. 👿

  18. Someone mentioned they heard there was another warm stretch in our near future, but I’m not seeing that anywhere myself… thoughts?

    1. Amy – I am not seeing it either. Looks like seasonable to at times below normal temps the next two weeks. In fact, Tuesday looks real chilly on the 6z GFS. There may even be a snow event for northern NE late next week.

  21. This could be the first year in my memory when Killington does not even make it to the end of March:

    Greetings from Killington Resort,
    Blue skies, sunshine and warm temps are sticking around Killington Resort for the next couple of days and we’re currently skiing and riding on spring conditions down 23 trails on Skye Peak and Bear Mountain. The unseasonably warm temperatures this week have caused our snow pack to melt faster than we hoped. Despite our Mountain Operation team’s best efforts, the K-1 Express Gondola and Snowdon Triple and the trails accessible from those lifts are now closed for the 2011-12 winter season.
    For today, the Bear Mountain Quad, Needle’s Eye Express Quad and the Superstar Express Quad are operating. For Thursday through the weekend, it is likely that we will only be operating Bear Mountain Quad and Superstar Express Quad. The two pods will be isolated from one another and a shuttle will be operating between the two sites. As of today, there is still significant snow depth on Superstar trail.
    Please note, Killington is offering skiing and riding on intermediate and advanced terrain only. Walking may be required and there is no beginner terrain available at this time. Spring conditions exist; they can change rapidly and create unpredictable surfaces, so please pay close attention when you’re out on the trails.

    2. Sad, actually. the ski season hardly got going anywhere.

      The bears must be wondering “why the heck did we hibernate this year?” Who knows, maybe they’ll have second thoughts this fall and decide not to slumber. Animals know weather patterns instinctively, and if in their minds the NAO is still positive and the northern branch of the jetstream meandering through Labrador and not New England, they may give up on hibernation altogether.

      Joe Lundberg is right when he says he’s never seen anything remotely close to this kind of pattern in March. When it comes on the heels of an aberrant winter pattern, it makes it feel that we don’t deserve any of it. I’m not “feeling” spring, because in my mind and senses it’s been spring or a continuation of November all winter.

      I’m really hoping for human and animal’s sake we soon return to some degree of normalcy in our seasonal patterns.

      1. Sorry, Joshua – this has happened before with me. Meant to reply to your post. Don’t know why this happens . . .

  22. I totally agree with you, Joshua. That’s what makes New England so special – the change in seasons. It seemed like barely a change from fall to winter to spring. Granted, we could still get snow but it will melt fast. And frankly, I am hoping we don’t get any snow or very cold temps. because of the plants and animals – I think they are very confused! “-:(”

    Thanks, Acemaster for the icons! Trying them out – tried to make a sad face that moved – not sure it worked.

      1. rainshine I did the same thing you did the first time I tried it – just leave the quotation marks off on either side 😎

        1. Thanks, Vicki. My fingers don’t want to work right today. I wonder if it’s the weather! It is beautiful out – was out doing errands and saw forsythia blooming in Framingham, near the Sudbury line. Funny – here they are still just budding. We live in a very wooded area – could be the environment, I s’pose. More than anything, I really wish we could get some rain. This lack of rain and unusual warmth could be doing other things to the plants and stuff – as well as the fire danger.

  23. Glad the smiley’s work! 😀

    Not sure if this is a mistake or not, but Mt. Washington reporting 70 degrees right now?? That HAS to have absolutely shattered a record

  24. Read this post from yesterday from the Mt Washington Observatory….amazing.

    Today was a near-historic day on the summit. The theme of the past few comments has been very consistent-it’s unseasonably warm. I’m sure that point has been hammered home, whether you’ve experienced it first hand or not. However, there’s a difference between just eeking out new records, which is normally the case during a stretch of unseasonable weather, and completely shattering them.

    Our record high for today was a mere 43F. So far today (with only a scant few hours left), we have not fallen BELOW this figure. That’s right–our daily low temperature today has not fallen below the record HIGH for the day. That’s quite a feat.

    But wait…I have more for you: Our all-time record high for the month of March was 54F set back on March 31st, 1998. During the observation I took at 2:52 PM EDT this afternoon, I recorded a temperature of 53.5F, tieing this all-time record for the month of March. That gives a good picture of just how unusual this mild stretch is.

    During shift change today, we managed to make it up just past the 4-mile marker of the Auto Road with a truck/van with chains. Even though we hopped in the Snow Cat for the balance of the trip, it was only really necessary for two small sections of the road. There is plenty of bare pavement across the top half of the road already.

    The snow pack–if it can be referred to as such anymore–has been reduced to patches and drifts scattered about the summit, which will experience one more day of mild temperatures on Thursday before a turn back towards typical late March weather. Even so, temperatures this time of year average in the upper teens, and the models are suggesting the summit won’t dip that low until next week, at the earliest. We’ve even been able to open the sub door far earlier than in season’s past.

    Being a lover of summertime, I am thrilled with this earlier-than-normal-by-two-months transformation of the landscape from winter to summer. Sorry if you disagree, but it is also extremely exciting to witness as a meteorologist as well!

  25. Let’s Go! We are back in business!!!!!!

    I’m predicting 12+ for most of eastern mass. This will be a wet snow so power outages are almost a certainty. IWS picked up on this weeks ago and now the GFS has it.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120322%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=264&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=03%2F22%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. There it is! Part 2 of our bookend historic storms for winter 2011-2012. Love how it just sits there for 4 days as well. Hey, if the NAO dips negative, you never know. :LOL:

    2. i honestly have mixed fellings about it. my plants are going to suffer if it gets to cold next week and then this. I do not want it to happen. Not to mention if that size of a storm happens it will be like what happened in october with leaves on the trees

    4. the latest run doesn’t look quite as promising

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120322%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=252&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=03%2F22%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  26. Well I predicted 67 inches of snow this year, I think I will be off by a little but such is life in the on-coming lane. On another note the Herring in Weymouth showed up yesterday. They are a month early on average but definitely the earliest in the last 24 years. Enjoy while you can.

  27. Another nice day today. Day two of being stuck inside. Today’s hot room is a generator room. Some of these mechanical rooms get really hot and stuffy.

      1. It seems a little cold to me too but then again I can remember going for a dip in the water up in Bar Harbor when the water temp was in the upper 50s. Don’t think I stayed in all that long 🙂

      2. Well should I keep them out of the ocean when we r there in hampton beach for a week in June, hadi the temps then will be the same temp, I do not think its extreme 🙂

        1. Ocean temp at the time will be between 55-60 hadi and there are thousands of people in water 🙂

  30. I just had my 4 th friend call from out of state in last 2 weeks saying that there hearing on news that the east has never seen a winter like 2011-12, I just say to them I’ve never seen anything like it in my 40 yrs of life here

  31. I feel like I’m looking at different models, I don’t even see the possibility of snow around here, The GFS has a warmup Around early-mid April

  33. It will be interesting to see if btwn 3 and 4 pm, locations added on another degree or 2 to their 3 pm temps……

  34. In Fort Meyers and temps in mid to upper 80’s with fairly strong daytime breezes. Winds whipping up the water with 2-3 foot swells.

  36. Just so everyone knows I’m not trying to be rude or question people here or be annoying, I just truly don’t see a possibility of snow, but on this blog I keep seeing a possibility of snow and for some on blog think we r in for a foot of snow, where’s this big snow or cold? Just curious? I really hope everyone has a great day and I really enjoy all of u and this blog, thanks again 🙂

  37. Logan and Worcester, both at +30F temp anomalies for the day. I’m pretty sure when avg’d in, should get Logan to +10F for the month of March.

  38. Looking ahead….after tomorrow, it seems that a majority of the next several days will have Eastern New England seeing the wind either coming from off the cold 45F ocean or from southeast and eastern Canada. This is quite a departure from the last 180 days, where 90% of our airmasses have either been Pacific in origin or continental (US, not Canada). Maybe Sunday, March 25th will end up being the long awaited regime change to overall below normal temps. Time will tell.

    2. With the MJO about to go into phase 7 and stay in there for days, could be the driver on a regime change. The NAO may go negative as well. Could be pay back time.

    3. Possibly but remember that in March, April and even into May we see more of an easterly component to our winds than in the summer or winter which tend to be more continental in nature.

      1. Can u change font color without admin priviledges. I love that you are having fun and teaching us at the same time 🙂

        1. Oh well, I don’t think i can. I have very limited knowledge of writing and interpreting code but I think the site uses a different format. I think ill stick to the emoticons, hehe

  40. Late this afternoon I heard the ice cream truck in my neighborhood for the first time ever in March. 🙂

  42. I met Todd Gutner at the lake in Wakefield late this afternoon. We had a nice chat. 🙂

      1. LOL!

        He told me I was “an excellent meteorologist” which is always nice to hear from any colleague. 🙂

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