C-19 Chat Post – January 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

Blocking rolls on. We stay fairly quiet for a few more days before a low pressure system finally has a more notable impact on the region, but not until Saturday as it looks now. We will still some episodic cloudiness from weak disturbances passing by this area through Thursday. High pressure center in Canada will nose down into the region Thursday night and Friday, with a tranquil period of weather hanging on until a broad low pressure system enters the Great Lakes region and pushes its frontal boundary toward the East Coast where a new low pressure area will form southwest of New England, moving just west of or over our region early on Saturday. The set-up and track likely means a period of rain here Saturday morning. While it’s still several days away, it looks like this system may be moving along so we dry out before Saturday’s over, but will tweak the timing & resultant forecast as needed.

TODAY: Sun & clouds, sun ruling the morning-midday, clouds ruling later. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dominant evening before decreasing during overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning. Breaking clouds afternoon from west to east. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

High pressure is expected to bring fair and seasonably chilly weather January 17. As we continue to be in a blocking pattern the general idea is to return to the set-up we’ve had much of this week with weaker energy moving through out area, so there is potential for some unsettled weather a couple of times but the early outlook is for no major storm systems.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

A very low confidence forecast period (lower than even typically for this far out). Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

The atmospheric block will continue during the next 5 days, although this pattern has been resulting in dry weather and slightly above average temperatures and will continue to do just that during the next 4 days, although some episodes of cloudiness will be the result of weak disturbances moving across the region. Finally by Friday, a stronger low will take a track northwest of New England, dragging milder air in along with rain showers, likely ending the lengthy stretch of dry weather.

TODAY: Early sun otherwise mainly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early then clearing west to east. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through midday then some clouds returning again. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely especially afternoon and night. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

As low pressure continues to pass north of the region and move away January 16 may dawn showery and mild followed by drying & colder along with a gusty wind. High pressure brings fair weather for January 17. Watching 1 or 2 potential systems to bring unsettled weather between January 18 & 20 but this is very low confidence. Temperatures look somewhat closer to normal for the middle and end of the period but not seeing as strong a sign of a visit from arctic air as was previously indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

A strong blocking pattern continues to keep our weather on the quiet side. This will not be changing during this 5 day period either as we see yet another storm system fail to organize while passing south of the region Tuesday, and another batch of energy fail to materialize into much as it goes by the region fairly unnoticeable by the middle of the week.

TODAY: Sun & some high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Blocking pattern continues. Activity in our area increases during this 5-day period, starting with a low pressure area tracking northwest of the region, a milder day with a risk of rain showers January 15 followed by a drier/colder start to the Dr. MLK Jr. weekend January 16-17 which may end with a rain/mix/snow threat on January 18 before fair weather returns again.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

Monitoring for a weakening of the blocking pattern and a somewhat more active storm track into the Northeast. A lot of uncertainties out this far.

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C-19 Chat Post – January 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

A quiet weekend as our ongoing blocking pattern shunts the storm track to the south, with one passing out to seas well south of the region today before high pressure builds in Sunday. While a few high & mid level clouds are around during the day from that storm passing well to the south, a northerly air flow will bring some ocean cloudiness into portions of southeastern MA today. Sunday’s sky will be cloud-free. The storm track will remain suppressed early next week although a little less so, so the next disturbance in the pipeline will have the chance to get a little bit closer to the region on Tuesday while another trough approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. So far, this period looks more like a cloudier time versus having any significant precipitation, but I’ll keep an eye on it…

TODAY: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy at times MA South Shore through Cape Cod. Highs 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

Another disturbance should scoot through from west to east at the same time temperatures moderate but only expecting a rain or snow shower threat for January 15 before a shot of colder air arrives for the MLK Jr Weekend. We may need to watch for a storm system before that weekend is over, but this is a longer range look with low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

A weakening of the blocking pattern is possible. This should allow for another cold shot at some point and at least one precipitation potential.

C-19 Chat Post – January 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

Strong blocking continues, keeping it dry here while the storm track is forced to the south through at least the weekend. The next system may get closer by Tuesday but the evolution and track remain in question.

TODAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 34-41. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

We will continue in a blocking pattern with active and changeable weather. We’re vulnerable to unsettled weather through January 15 followed by a shot of Arctic air to end the period. as a result of it, starting with a storm threat int he January 12-13 period, depending on how close low pressure from the southwest gets to our area, followed by what looks like a weaker system passing by around January 15 and a shot of arctic air potentially arriving at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Blocking should continue but may weaken. I continue moderately confident of a colder than normal period here but less confident about any storm threats.

C-19 Chat Post – January 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

I’m not going to spend time over-analyzing our blocking pattern or trashing the over-hyped headlines flying around the net. Waste of time, actually. Today, I’ll do what I feel I do best, and that is focus on the weather pattern and its expected impact on the WHW forecast area. So let’s do that. 🙂 Blocking continues and will be on the strong side, forcing a storm to pass south of our area Friday night & Saturday, with us seeing no more than some high clouds from the northern side of its cloud canopy. This leaves us dry and seasonably chilly for the next 5 days with today probably the “mildest” and either Saturday or Sunday the “coldest”. See? That was easy…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 34-41. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

This 5-day period is where we will continue in a blocking pattern but likely see more active and changeable weather as a result of it, starting with a storm threat int he January 12-13 period, depending on how close low pressure from the southwest gets to our area, followed by what looks like a weaker system passing by around January 15 and a shot of arctic air potentially arriving at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Blocking should continue. I’m moderately confident of a colder than normal 5-day period here but less confident about any storm threats, leaning drier initially.

C-19 Chat Post – January 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

We now are in a blocking pattern and have seen a stratospheric warming event disrupt the polar vortex which means a more volatile pattern for the Northern Hemisphere. What does that mean for us here in the northeastern US? Well, in the very short term, it doesn’t mean all that much different from what I’d been discussing, regarding getting rid of our offshore storm today, slowly, and seeing the next storm system miss to the south early in the weekend, leaving us with seasonably chilly and generally dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Possible passing snow showers except snow or rain showers Cape Cod. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

The blocking pattern will remain in place. Various guidance remains in disagreement about how the next storm threat(s) will play out but we need to keep an eye on one or potentially 2 systems (January 12-13 & 14-15). The disruption of the polar jet stream will make it difficult to gauge the evolution and timing of disturbances that have the potential to impact our region. Temperatures overall will not be that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Still lower confidence due to the upcoming instability of the large scale pattern. For now holding onto a continuation of and possible start of the breakdown of the blocking set-up but still a volatile pattern with the impacts from an unstable polar vortex. This probably leads to at least one storm threat and with colder air potentially more available, the winter storm threat would be there. Lots to monitor in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – January 6 2021