10:53AM
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Sorry I’m late with today’s update. I was out looking for my shadow. Didn’t find it. And that means…..it’s cloudy. Or at least it was when I was out. Here at WHW home base the clouds have thinned and broken enough to allow a hint of sunshine and a slight shadow of any animals walking about. But jokes and myths aside, nobody really knows when winter weather will end, other than sometime within a few weeks of the end of winter, by the calendar. It will depend on the weather pattern as we go forward, and we’ll be looking at that as always. But this is section is for the next 5 days, so let’s pull in and focus on that. We have an elongated trough moving through at upper levels at this time, and that’s responsible for the cloudiness, but most attempts by the atmosphere to generate any precipitation have failed. It gets one more try tonight as a warm front crosses the region, but that doesn’t look like anything more than spotty mix or a touch of snow. And then comes Monday, the pick of the week, the nicest day, with high pressure in control as it passes to the south, we’ll have a fair amount of sunshine and fairly mild air by early February standards. After that, we’ll be heading in a different direction, first as a frontal boundary sets up shop in the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A couple bouts of insignificant precipitation, likely in the form of rain, can take place during those 2 days, although there will be enough dry air about to make it difficult for the atmosphere to do much. Later Wednesday, a cold front will have pushed through and will bring in just enough cold air so that when a more significant area of low pressure approaches Thursday, we’ll likely end up dealing with some frozen precipitation, although it’s a bit too soon for minute specifics. So here is my best effort at the forecast details for the next 5 days…
TODAY: Clouds give way to partial sun. Highs 36-43. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouds re-thicken and a period of mix/snow may occur with minor, temporary insignificant snow accumulation possible in some areas. Lows 29-36. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Early sun possible then mainly cloudy. Brief light rain possible favoring northern MA / southern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible. Clearing afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow/mix arriving. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
The low pressure area that approaches on Thursday will still be around Friday but with warmer air aloft we’ll probably see a mix to rain scenario, but being 6 days away a lot can still change. Updates to come. Current idea is that this system departs leaving us with a dry and seasonably chilly February 8-9 weekend. After this we’ll have to keep an eye out for more unsettled weather toward the end of the period as we’ll be in the same general pattern (battleground between cold to the north, mild to the south). But I’m not sure how quickly the next round of unsettled weather evolves so that part of the forecast may change to a drier outlook.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Mid February looks unsettled with the battle of cold north / mild south still being waged in this area.