9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
The chill was in the air again this morning but you’ll notice that difference between January sun and March sun in a bigger way today, as even though we still will have below average temperatures, the air will have much less bite to it than it would have 2 months ago under the same set-up. No big changes to the overall outlook going forward. It’s funny how sometimes the sooner details are the tougher things to forecast, and that’s the case with the rain/snow line and its timing as our next storm system gets underway during Sunday morning. I’ve decided to just leave the forecast the same and not make any adjustments to expected snowfall, with a coating to 1 inch in general, probably nothing at all on the immediate South Coast / Cape Cod, but possibly up to 2 inches across the higher elevations of interior MA and southern NH with a 3-inch amount not impossible to achieve. The remainder of the forecast going forward is largely unchanged, with milder air behind the system Monday, and a chilly Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44, coolest along the shoreline. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn RI/CT/central MA, by dawn eastern MA/southern NH. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow changing to rain from south to north during the morning then tapering to rain showers west to east late in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a risk of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Watch for patchy black ice forming. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of snow showers early, then sun/cloud mix. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
High pressure builds along the East Coast and a cold front slowly approaches from the west so that temperatures go above normal March 14-15, but rain showers are likely on March 15. Colder air returns to the region during the March 16-17 weekend and beyond. What is uncertain at this time is whether or not there will be any additional storminess in the region which would bring a frozen precipitation threat. Will be re-evaluating this as things become more clear.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
The weather pattern will likely produce colder than average temperatures and may produce a couple of wintry precipitation threats during this period.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)
Today’s the day that our arctic outbreak eases up and you’ll notice it, maybe not first thing this morning as temperatures sit in the upper single digits to teens as of just after sunrise, but they will recover to above freezing throughout the region for the first time in a few days with the help of stronger March sunshine and a southwest breeze. During tonight, low pressure passes harmlessly south of the area. Saturday will be a great day by early March standards with a little bit milder feel due to more sunshine and fairly light wind, however there will be slight exception. This will be one of the first days this year in which the coastline will feel cooler than the interior. It’s not going to be due to a classic sea breeze, as the wind will already be coming onshore due to the center of high pressure being north of the region and the air flow around it, but the effect is the same. But whether you’re at the coast or inland, enjoy Saturday’s weather, because Sunday will be an entirely different kind of day – overcast, starting snowy, and turning rainy. This won’t be a big storm by any means but enough snow may fall to slick up untreated roads during the morning, so use caution if you plan on traveling. As far as snow accumulations, they will be minor, with a coating to 1 inch in general, probably nothing at all on the immediate South Coast / Cape Cod, but possibly up to 2 inches across the higher elevations of interior MA and southern NH with a 3-inch amount not impossible to achieve. Also, do not forget this is the weekend we change the clocks 1 hour ahead (2AM Sunday) to being Daylight Savings Time. The parent low pressure area causing Sunday’s unsettled weather will crank up and head from the Great Lakes across eastern Canada during Monday, which will be a breezy but fairly mild day. This set-up is not nearly as powerful as the one that caused the big wind event not too long ago, even though on the weather map it looks somewhat similar. It is a much weaker set up overall with a far less impressive pressure gradient. By Tuesday, upper level low pressure crosses the region and may help instigate a few snow showers, at least cloudiness, for a time, and otherwise it will be a breezy and colder day than the one just before it. Forecast details begin on the next line…
TODAY: Sunshine, filtered later by some high cloudiness. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-15 interior, 15-20 coast. Wind light S.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44, coolest along the shoreline. Wind light E.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn RI/CT/central MA, by dawn eastern MA/southern NH. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow changing to rain from south to north during the morning then tapering to rain showers west to east late in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of snow showers early, then sun/cloud mix. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)
High pressure builds along the East Coast enough to provide fair weather and a moderating temperature trend during the middle of next week (March 13-14). March 15 may be quite mild but probably have rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west. The March 16-17 weekend looks colder at this time but mainly dry.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)
The weather pattern will likely produce colder than average temperatures and may produce a couple of wintry precipitation threats during this period.

6:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
Today will be the 3rd similar day in a row, cold, breezy, and just a risk of a few snow flurries as yet another minor disturbance passes. Then we moderate a little bit on Friday, although still remain colder than normal, with a minor low pressure system missing to the south Friday night. This will leave us with a decent Saturday before the next storm system impacts the region Sunday. There should be enough cold air for this system to start as snow upon arrival Sunday morning, but warmer air will win out at all levels of the atmosphere, transitioning the snow to sleet then rain rather quickly by midday, but not before some possible minor snow accumulation. This system will not hang around long as its parent low rapidly moves through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada, wrapping dry air around its back side and pushing that into the region by Monday, which will be windy and drier, but not all that cold. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny with isolated snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow to sleet to rain, ending late. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Looks like a cold upper low crosses the region with clouds and a risk of snow showers March 12, followed by moderating temperatures and fair weather March 13-14. Timing of next low pressure system should bring it into the region March 15 with mix/rain showers possible. A progressive pattern should replace this with windy and colder weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)
This period will likely end up seasonable to colder than normal with at least 1 chance of storminess which may include a mix or snow. However, this is a low confidence forecast and subject to much adjustment.

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
Cold air dominates the next few days with a west to northwest flow from southern Canada across the Great Lakes. Weak low pressure passes south of the region later Friday but should keep most of its precipitation (snow/mix) to the south of the region. Dry weather is back for the start of the weekend. The next storm system looks like a Great Lakes Cutter which may have just enough cold air to work with at the start for snow/mix at the onset but this looks like a mainly rain event as milder air will win out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start and finish. Partly sunny in-between with a few snow flurries possible. Highs 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 9-16. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers midday and afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late, favoring the South Coast. Highs 33-40. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM brief snow/mix to rain. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Fair, windy, colder March 11. Cold with possible snow showers March 12 from an upper disturbance. Dry, moderating temperatures March 13-14. Unsure on timing but may turn cooler and unsettled by March 15.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Up and down temps and several bouts of unsettled weather are possible during a transitional pattern, or a battle between milder air to the southeast and more cold air wanting to come out of Canada.

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)
No big changes to the outlook previously outlined. A cold air mass dominates the region the next few days, with a little instability creating a daily snow shower risk today through Thursday, most enhanced chance being Wednesday with the aid of an upper level disturbance. By late Friday we’ll be watching a weak system approaching from the west, but it looks somewhat similar to the one that gave NYC minor snow and southwestern New England flurries last Friday, and may do very much the same thing as much of it passes south of the region Friday night. Will keep an eye on it in case since it’s more than a few days away. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a brief snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon snow showers. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late, favoring the South Coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Clearing. Risk of snow early, favoring the South Coast. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)
Low pressure likely travels through the Great Lakes bringing a brief mix to rain threat here March 10 to early March 11. Colder air follows briefly and an upper low may bring snow showers March 12. Dry weather and moderating temperatures follow this as high pressure moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)
In typical March fashion I have my doubts any warm-up is long lasting as a system arrives from the west early in the period with some unsettled weather and some chill probably returns thereafter. This pattern at mid month remains fairly uncertain so this is a low confidence outlook at this time.

7:23AM

COMMENTARY
It was about time I got hammered, oh not by snow, but by mother nature vividly telling me I blew that forecast. To be fair, I wasn’t the only one, even the ones with higher amounts still under-forecast amounts in some locations. But I’ll stand up as the worst-of-the-lot on this one. It was sorta like expecting a medium coffee and being forced to drink a large latte. And I’m not supposed to consume that much caffeine! Anyway, on we go, heart palpitations and all. We’ll chat in the comments about the specifics of how the storm unfolded as we go through the day, but first I’m going to quickly update the blog going forward, because no matter how bad the forecast was on this one, there is still weather coming up and I do remain fairly confident about the overall pattern at least in the short term.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
What may very well be the biggest snowstorm of the season is making its exit but will do so with a little lingering snow this morning. Accumulation is basically a done deal except a little left to go to the southeast. And the cold air will take its time getting in, holding off until tonight, so that gives basically a full day for cleanup in which it is possible to get all paved surfaces clear, though many will remain wet so we’ll have to watch for ice forming on those areas tonight. Cold air then overtakes the region Tuesday on. We have 2 more system to watch, as mentioned yesterday, one bringing a risk of snow showers later Wednesday and another snow/mix threat later Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast morning with areas of snow tapering off west to east and only minor additional accumulation. Breaking clouds this afternoon with partial sun possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 0.
TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a brief snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon snow showers. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow flurry. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
2 more unsettled weather threats centered around March 10 and 12, favoring mix/rain over snow. Temperatures start below normal then trend milder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)
Temperatures start mild then trend colder. Unsettled weather most likely mid period, about March 15-16.

8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
The next in a series of low pressure areas to impact the region in one way or another over the first few days of March will dump a generally moderate snowfall on southeastern New England in about a 12 hour period from mid evening tonight to Monday morning. With not a ton of cold air to work with, a snow/rain line will work at least onto the South Coast and possibly a bit further north – will monitor. However, with the majority of the snow occurring at night, it will accumulate more easily than the snow from Saturday’s event did. Once this gets beyond the region, a disturbance still passing through at high altitudes may help create a few additional snow showers later Monday. We will then be visited by a very cold air mass for Tuesday through Thursday, with mainly dry weather, however a disturbance will bring some cloudiness and a risk of some snow showers about Wednesday, which will likely be the coldest of the 3 days as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops southwest to northeast, may turn to rain South Coast. Lows 25-32 but may rise later along the South Coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow except rain or snow South Coast, ending southwest to northeast during the morning. Breaking clouds later in the day but still a risk of a few snow showers. Expected snow accumulation, 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Islands, 3-5 inches South Coast and southwestern NH, 5-9 inches elsewhere. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
Colder than average for the period. Low pressure areas passing by with snow/mix threats March 8, 10, and 12.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
Moderating temperatures during this period. A system may bring some light precipitation about mid period.

2:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)
Low pressure will track rapidly northeastward in a fast-flowing jet stream, passing southeast of New England during today, producing a light to borderline moderate snowfall for the region, with some mixing with rain possible closer to the South Coast. This system will be fairly easy to manage as temperatures will not be all that cold. Also occurring in early March the sun angle is higher, so even if the sun is not actually shining, the radiation through the clouds aids in snow-melt on the roadways. A disturbance will track west to east across the region tonight with additional snow showers producing only minor accumulation. Another wave of low pressure, slightly larger than the first, will behave fairly similarly as it passes southeast of the region Sunday night and early Monday, with an early idea on this being another light to moderate snowfall. It remains to be seen if any mix/rain will be involved in it. Cold air will invade the region behind the second system. A disturbance coming along on Wednesday will bring at least cloudiness and possible some snow shower activity.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with snow advancing northward early through mid morning then tapering off west to east late morning to early afternoon, may mix with rain South Coast, with snow accumulation a coating to 1 inch north central MA and southwestern to south central NH, 1-3 inches I-95 belt and immediate South Coast, 3-6 inches remainder of southeastern MA. Breaking clouds with partial sun possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow showers moving west to east across the region with additional accumulation of under 1 inch. Lows 23-30. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow develops southwest to northeast. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow except rain or snow South Coast, ending southwest to northeast midday. Breaking clouds later in the day. Early-call snow accumulation on this event 2-6 inches. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)
Colder than average for the period. Low pressure areas passing by with snow/mix threats March 8 and 10.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)
Milder air tries to overtake the region by mid month, probably starting with a period of cloudiness and possible precipitation early in the period.

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
Like that little teaser scene at the start of a movie, a disturbance passing south of the region today may cause a few flakes of snow to fall in southern portions of southeastern New England this morning so don’t be alarmed if you see this. There will be no accumulation…
March is here and if you are a veteran of New England weather you now have no reason to make the mistake that “Meteorological Spring” means that winter is over, especially during its first 4 to 6 weeks. It doesn’t matter what any ground hogs said. It doesn’t matter what the weather has been like before this. It just doesn’t matter. It’s March in New England, and March can be a harsh month. It isn’t always, but if often is. March 2019 will have some elements of harshness in its opening days. But don’t say you were not warned. Several media outlets including WHW have hinted about having to watch the early days of this month for cold and possible storm threats, including snow threats. We just got a preview as February ended and now we’ll have a couple more during the first 5 days of the month. It’s a pretty simple large scale pattern in place now that will allow it. Colder air available, less ability to push it out of the way, and a jet stream settled enough to the south that the main storm track is over or just south of New England. It looks like the next 2 low pressure areas will follow that track. And applying the known uncertainty, it looks like threat number 1, Saturday, will produce more snow than threat number 2, Sunday night and Monday. But as you know, and have been reminded many times, things can change quickly so don’t come away from this discussion thinking all of this is locked in. It’s weather, after all. Oh yes, and for those interested, the MJO has traveled through phases 8 and 1, probably helping to set us up for the fluffy snow event we just had, and hangs out in phase 2 just long enough for these next couple threats. The sole reason? Probably not. But it’s hard not to think that MJO, which has been a mixture of thorn-in-the-side and meteorological intrigue is playing a role here in a different way now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA this morning. Increasing sun midday and afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn (after 3AM most locations). Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow likely morning and early afternoon (ending by about 2PM), may mix with rain South Coast. Snow accumulation of 3-6 inches most likely, with some areas of southwestern NH and north central MA possibly under 3 inches due to less precipitation and some areas of the South Coast possibly under 3 inches due to mixing with rain. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds during the day. Cloudy at night with a chance of snow late. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow early. Isolated snow showers afternoon. Temperatures generally steady upper 20s to middle 30s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Isolated snow flurries. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Watching for a possible wave of low pressure not seen currently by guidance that may bring cloudiness and a snow threat during March 6, and a follow up threat March 8, as the pattern remains on the colder and somewhat active side. These systems could be weak or suppressed to the south as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Another storm threat to start the period then a reconfiguration of the pattern may allow a few milder days. Low confidence forecast.

6:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
On this final day of February we are setting the departure of a relatively minor snow event, but one of our only all snow events all season. The system behaved about as expected with a 2-5 inch snow forecast and a 1-4 inch result (pending some final snow reports). And now we turn our attention to the upcoming threats, and there are several. You have been pre-warned that the early part of March would feature colder weather and some storm threats, and this combination naturally leads to more snow threats, in theory, but does not guarantee that we are suddenly going to be in a snowy pattern just the same. Each of these events will have their own little quirks and variations, which will will try to work out as they get closer in time range. We still are having the issue with a pattern that doesn’t allow model forecast to be that dependable for very long out from the initial time, so nothing concrete should be said about each of these events until the details are adequately clear, and that method will be adhered to here on the blog. Friday’s event will not really be much of an event at all for most of the region, bringing just clouds, as it will be a disturbance passing mainly south of the region bringing only the threat of insignificant precipitation to the southernmost portions of southeastern New England. Saturday’s event still carries some uncertainty, but I am leaning toward 2 systems staying mainly separated, with a mainly offshore system that has the risk of bringing a period of steadier snow and rain to Cape Cod, and a weaker frontal system that should bring some mix/snow showers through the region west to east later Saturday to early Sunday. Many media outlets are already sounding a little too certain in my opinion about a threat for Sunday night and Monday. To me, the pattern certainly looks now like it wants to produce something that will make a run at the region, but the track is uncertain enough that anything from a snow to rain event, to a snow event, to a graze or miss can all still be considered possible. One thing I am more certain of is whatever form and location this system is in, it will be a fast mover and of relatively short duration. So based on the uncertainty, the wording in the detailed forecast below won’t be very detailed. Have to work with the limitations here.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with bands of snow lingering near the eastern MA coast with some additional light accumulation. Partly sunny late morning on with isolated snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light N to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain/snow showers favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain or snow possible Cape Cod. Mix/snow showers possible late day or evening from west to east. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow/mix at night. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain early. Chance of mix/snow showers after. Temperatures generally steady 30s to around 40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)
Dry weather expected to start and end the period, but the March 6-8 period may see 1 or 2 disturbances bring the threat of precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)
Colder, drier to start the period. Risk of some precipitation mid period then a warm-up may follow this as the pattern relaxes allowing the jet stream to lift to the north and possible some high pressure to locate itself on the East Coast.

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
The only pure snow event of meteorological winter will occur on its final day (starting the day before, technically), as a wave of low pressure will run into plenty of cold air and produce a general light to borderline moderate snowfall from late this evening into Thursday. The snow event will be largely over by or during Thursday’s morning commute although some ocean-effect snow showers may linger along the Massachusetts coastline, where we are most likely to realize the higher end of my expected 2-5 inch range, while areas from the Merrimack Valley into southern NH, due to drier air, and areas close to the South Coast, due to a shorter-duration of snow, may be closer to the lower ends of the totals. It will take very little difference in melted precipitation to make a difference of an inch or two in total snowfall as this will be a fairly high snow to water ratio event anyway. Once again, it’s not so much about the exact amount of snow any given area will be seeing, but timing, with regards to impact, as the event will be occurring and wrapping up prior to and during a weekday morning commute. But at least without the mess of varying types of precipitation, rapid temperature changes, and wind, this will be a relatively easy event to manage. But no matter how simple the event, it’s always very smart to use caution when traveling. Please do so. The remainder of the forecast has a few adjustments, as it looks like the Friday disturbance will be fairly weak and barely carry enough moisture to produce a touch of rain and/or snow in southern areas. The dilemma, if you will, is how the weekend system will behave. All guidance has struggled with exactly what to do with this. My idea of a couple days ago of 2 nearly separate systems, one to the south, one to the north, may now be the most likely scenario, essentially resulting in a frontal passage here at the mid point of the weekend, with an episode of rain and/or snow showers. Precipitation type may be hard to know until shortly before the event due to marginal temperatures. So there is yet more fine-tuning to do with that one, which seems bound to be hard to figure out until virtually the last moment. Oh well!
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 25-32. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east late evening and continues overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind light N to NE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy start with lingering snow especially southeastern MA, total accumulation 2-5 inches with the lower end of the range most likely in southern NH and the Merrimack Valley of MA, and the higher end of the range most likely from Boston to Plymouth to Providence, and another area of lower end amounts possible closer to the South Coast including Cape Cod. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light N to NW.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain/snow showers favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Early sun then clouding up. PM rain or snow showers. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Clouds and a risk of light mix/snow early, then partly sunny with isolated snow showers. Temperatures generally steady in 30s. Becoming windy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)
Disturbance brings clouds and a risk of a few snow showers March 4. Dry and chilly March 5. Watching the March 6-8 period for one or two storm systems that may impact the region with rain/mix/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)
A shot of cold air to start the period and then a moderating trend seems more likely with a minor precipitation event around mid period otherwise mainly dry.

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
If you didn’t blow away yesterday and are still here to read this, you made it through the big wind event, or were not around the area for it. Quite the event I won’t dwell on here as we’ve all pretty much read the stories or seen the pictures / video. I even had my own experience with a fairly near-miss with a portion of a tree coming down on the road I was heading toward. We’re actually not quite done with the event, as there will still be some wind gusts today that would be considered quite a windy day, but much weaker than yesterday’s. This continues to be in response to the large pressure gradient between the big high pressure area from central Canada to the upper Midwest and a broad and powerful low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes. But by late today this gradient finally relaxes enough to put an end to this event, leaving us with a decent cold air mass which will send many temperatures below 10 for the early hours of Wednesday, and set us up with plenty of cold to assure the next system will be a snow-producer. This will be the result of a clipper low pressure area from Canada coming across the Great Lakes and heading just south of New England by early Thursday. This late Wednesday night / Thursday morning snow event will be minor, in terms of snow amounts, but will be timed to cause some issues with the Thursday morning commute. The system will be fighting dry air, and that along with its quick movement and somewhat limited moisture will keep most snow amounts under 4 inches, but 4 will be upper limit of my range as I think it can possibly be reached, especially in southeastern MA where a period of onshore wind during and even after the main precipitation shield passes can add a tad to the totals. Either way, later Thursday, it’s all gone, but we don’t get too much of a breather as the active pattern rolls on, and we’ll have a rain/snow shower threat Friday from a passing disturbance and another low pressure which tracks into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and spawns a secondary just southwest of New England which then travels over the region, bringing milder air and a mainly rain event.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 25-32. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east late evening and continues overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind light N to NE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy start with lingering snow especially southeastern MA, total accumulation 2-4 inches though may be just 1-2 inches far northeastern MA and southern NH, and best chance of 4-inch amounts in southeastern MA. Becoming partly sunny midday and afternoon but still a passing snow shower possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain/snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Early sun then clouding up. PM rain. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)
Departing low pressure brings, wind, colder air, and a risk of a few snow showers March 3. Disturbance brings clouds and a risk of a few snow showers March 4. Dry and chilly March 5. Another low pressure area threatens with rain/mix/snow March 6 and/or 7.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)
The weather pattern will continue to allow colder air to dominate and a risk of 1 or 2 mix/snow events during this period.

6:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
The first day of March has made it into the first blog forecast period! That means spring’s coming right? Well yes, spring’s coming, but not soon. If you have lived in New England for any amount of time beyond a year or two, you’ll out yourself in short order that March is not a spring month more than it is a winter month. But I’m getting way ahead of myself, we still have 4 days left in February, and those won’t be anything like spring either. First, it’s high wind Monday, the event we’ve now talked about for a few days leading up to today, and it will deliver in the form of powerful gusts of wind during a day of sustained moderate to occasionally strong westerly winds. The peak wind will occur in the 12 hour period from about 7AM to about 7PM, but don’t go exactly by the clock, as some areas have already been seeing decent wind gusts, and they will also continue to occur right through tonight and even into Tuesday, only gradually subsiding. It goes without saying that in the aging forest we live in, tree damage and resultant power outages and property damage are possible. The cause of the wind is the pressure gradient between large sized and powerful low pressure in eastern Canada and elongated high pressure from central Canada into the upper Midwest. With these large features moving only slowly eastward, it makes for an extended period of wind. I should also mention that as these winds ramp up this morning, a few snow showers have made it into the region, and though localized and not lasting too long, they could briefly cause reduced visibility where they do occur, so if traveling be on the look out for these this morning. A decent shot of cold air will also be coming in with this wind event and it will be quite cold by tonight right through Wednesday. After dry weather Tuesday and most of Wednesday, a clipper low pressure system will dive across the Great Lakes and across southern New England Wednesday night and early Thursday. This should be a minor snow event for most, but just enough mild air may be drawn into the southern portion of the system for a South Coast mix, so snow amounts could be a little less there. More dry, chilly air follows later Thursday and a small disturbance coming along on Friday may deliver a few rain/snow showers as March arrives.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers this morning may briefly reduce visibility and cause localized coatings of snow that will melt and dry after. Highs 30-37. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts 45-65 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind W 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH, diminishing slightly overnight.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Accumulating snow probable at night. Highs 25-32. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy morning with snow and possible South Coast mix early. Partly sunny afternoon. Temperature rise into the 30s then steady.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain/snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)
Low pressure likely to track through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada during the March 2-3 weekend bringing milder air and a risk of rain showers Saturday, windy and colder weather with a risk of snow showers Sunday. Upper disturbance brings cloudiness and a risk of a few snow flurries March 4 followed by dry and chilly weather March 5. Next system threatens with a chance of snow/mix by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)
The weather pattern allows colder air to dominate and a risk of 1 or 2 mix/snow events during this period.

6:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
10 days ago I noticed my first sign that we may be influenced by a broad Pacific storm system that would likely be a mainly rain-producer. Given the theme of the winter overall, despite some atmospheric indices being favorable for snow events, it is not a surprise that this initial thought turned out to be correct. It is that storm system that impacts us today with our rainfall, but not really all that much rain in comparison to some of the systems we have endured since last autumn, with many areas coming in at under 1/2 inch of rain for this event. Of more note are the winds that are coming as this system departs, and will keep themselves up throughout Monday and even into Tuesday to some degree. The wind will be caused by the fairly tight pressure gradient between the departing low, which will be quite deep, and a fairly strong high pressure area to its and our southwest. We’ll be in the middle or “in the wind zone”. We’ll have to watch for weakened tree limbs and in some cases entire trees that are vulnerable to such events. Scattered power outages are possible. Along with the drier weather and wind will come colder air as well, although this is not going to be arctic cold, just fairly typical late winter cold. When we get to midweek, or the final 2 days of February, we’ll watch a weak system driving out of Canada. This clipper-type system may bring a period of snow/mix to the region in the late Wednesday to Thursday time period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with rain likely, except freezing rain until mid morning central MA and interior southern NH, tapering to rain showers later. Highs 40-47. Wind light N to NE over interior areas early, SE 5-15 MPH elsewhere, then SE to S increasing to 15-25 MPH all areas midday shifting to W during the afternoon from west to east.
TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 20-35 MPH, gusts 45-60 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 40-55 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH, gradually diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Nighttime snow/mix possible. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix possible mainly morning. Temperatures steady in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)
Been keeping an eye on the early days of March for both potential visits from cold air from Canada and possible storminess. Nothing has changed, but timing is still very uncertain on how things evolve. March 1 enters the 5-day forecast period tomorrow and will detail it then, and try to fine-tune the other days as much as possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and possible storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail. Storm track may remain split with bigger events being suppressed to the south.

8:40AM

COMMENTARY
The challenge it has been to forecast medium and longer range stuff the last several months has been more fun than frustrating to me. It’s an approach I must take to this science otherwise it would drive me nuts. And now I wonder if that cold/dry regime I have been expecting which the “negative PNA” and “elusive MJO” have been making me look like a fool waiting for my finally be coming … in March. But then again, maybe it’s just another dangling carrot. Oh well, one step at a time, starting with the next 5 days first. Read on…

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
High pressure retreats today, which will still be a nice day. Low pressure cranks up and tracks through the Great Lakes Sunday, bringing what will be mainly a rain event to the region, however it may start as snow/sleet briefly in the pre-dawn hours as just enough cold hangs on initially. Another thing to watch for will be pockets of freezing rain in central MA and southwestern NH especially in elevated valleys where cold air will hang on the longest before being scoured out. The now well-advertised windy Monday will indeed be occurring as what will be a monster-sized low pressure circulation slowly moves through eastern Canada Monday into Tuesday. The strongest winds will be Monday, but they will still be gusty through Tuesday. And then it’s “wildcard Wednesday” as the next low pressure area moves into the region. Model forecasts, as expected, have been all over the place with this during the course of the last several days, and as it gets closer and now in the 5-day range it looks like an unimpressive but possibly frozen event. Still some details to work out on this over the next couple days, so will leave forecast wording vague for now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives pre-dawn, may start as snow/sleet in some areas especially interior MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37 early. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Pockets of freezing rain possibly early in elevated valleys of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to W at the end of the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 40-55 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow/mix possible. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Midweek system departs early February 28 as snow/mix/rain (uncertain at this point on precipitation type). Will watch the first 4 days of March for at least one more storm threat but to be honest I am not even close to confident about timing and details so will leave it at that for today and attempt a little more tuning tomorrow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and possible storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail. Storm track may remain split with bigger events being suppressed to the south.