7:56AM

Hanging on to lots of clouds today, though cannot rule out a few breaks of sunshine later in the day as dry air starts to work down from the north. Though it does not look like completely clearing tonight, hopefully enough clearing will take place to be able to view the “Super Moon” which is the full moon at perigee (closest it gets to the Earth). This time it is the Full Flower Moon, and if we can see it tonight it will appear about 14% larger and 20% brighter than average, just enough to be noticeable to the naked eye.

2 day break: Sunday & Monday. Splendid days, though it will still be a little cool at the coast as the wind will want to come off the water there. Look for a few areas to reach 70 away from the shore on Monday afternoon.

Back to the gray: What I said recently about a dry spell coming was not quite right. Though we are not getting socked with heavy rain, we’re certainly in a pattern that’s a little more gray and damp than what we saw much of the Spring so far. This will be proven true again as we enter another such stretch of weather on Tuesday that we may struggle to get out of for a few days. At this point I am going to lean away from a big storm and heavy rain that was depicted on some computer guidance and go with a more showery scenario for Tuesday-Thursday, with end-of-week improvement and (peeking ahead) hopes for a great weekend for May 12-13 (which includes Mothers Day).

In the mean time, an updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS MORNING: Overcast with patchy fog and drizzle and a slight chance of a shower. Temperatures 48-55 rising slowly toward noon. Wind LV mainly NE.

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sunshine are possible late day. High 60-65 except 55-60 coast. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Low 43-48 except 38-43 some deeper valleys. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 55-60 coast, 61-66 inland. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 49. High 60 coast to 70 inland.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 49. High 60.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 49. High 61.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 47. High 63.

3:17PM

Unsettled and cool weather will continue for the couple days as another disturbance moves through the region. Improvement may come late in the weekend into the start of next week with a sliver of high pressure, but it  looks like a trough and more unsettled weather will rule the weather in southern New England for the balance of next week.

Forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

REST OF TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle. High 50-55. Wind SE under 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Chance of showers after midnight. Low 45-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. High 55-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 45-50. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. High 55-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 60.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 52. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. AM showers. Low 50. High 60.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle/showers. Low 48. High 58.

1:52AM

An ocean wind and moisture today, a nearby frontal boundary Thursday, and a disturbance moving through from the west Friday into Saturday will all combine to make it a very gray time with a lack of sunshine in southern New England. After a moderate rainfall in much of the region on Tuesday, not much will occur through Thursday. But by Friday, the disturbance from the west may bring some widespread shower activity. Hopefully most of this is gone by Saturday, but it may remain unsettled on that day. Improvement should arrive in the form of at least some sunshine by late in the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 50s except some lower 60s Thursday. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH Wednesday becoming more variable by Thursday.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 49. High 61.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 63.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 62.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

3:59PM

The month of April 2012 is on its way out after having been on the dry side (except one significant rain event). May will start unsettled with a wet day Tuesday, then lots of clouds dominating with an east wind hanging on for Wednesday, keeping it on the cooler side. Thursday-Friday should feature somewhat warmer air on a more southerly flow. There is some uncertainty as to exactly how the weekend plays out. It may trend cooler and still feature at least some cloudiness. Also keeping a chance of showers in the forecast through the period as we will be near a frontal boundary at times and a few disturbances will pass by. Do not expect widespread, heavy rainfall during the next 7 days.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clouding over west to east. Low 43-48. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of mostly light rain. Areas of drizzle and patches of fog too. High 48-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle. Areas of fog. Low 43-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 53-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 67.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 72.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 49. High 64.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 64.

10:24PM

One more cold night tonight as high pressure builds across the region from the west. Clear skies, slackening winds, and super dry air will allow temperatures to fall to below freezing in many inland areas. The cities and immediate coast will not be quite as cold.

High pressure will bring sunshine and pleasant weather Monday after a cold start to the day.

The first few days of May will be more unsettled as a frontal boundary is nearby. A wave of low pressure will bring showers to the region on Tuesday. Less of a shower threat is seen for Wednesday though clouds may try to hang on if the wind stays off the water. By Thursday-Friday, a more southerly flow will result in warmer weather but there will be some shower risk as additional disturbances move through the region. Still not sure of the timing of showers and any sunshine, so temperature forecasts for the second half of the week are low confidence. It may continue unsettled for at least part of the weekend though no major storms are expected.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clear. Frost and freeze away from the coast, especially in valley areas. Low 30-35 most areas except 25-30 inland valleys and 35-40 urban centers and coastline. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high cloudiness especially during the afternoon. High 58-63. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening cloudiness. Rain arriving from west to east after midnight. Low 45-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning, steadiest and possibly moderate southern areas, lighter and more spotty to the north. Patchy light rain and drizzle during the afternoon. High 50-55. Wind E around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 49. High 61.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 64.

11:15AM

Quick forecast update, only change for now is to tweak Wednesday’s high temperature down a little, otherwise not changing anything until re-evaluation of information before I write The Week Ahead post this evening. Have a great Sunday everybody!

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

REMAINDER OF TODAY:  Sunny. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low from near 30 to near 40, coolest in the valleys and mildest near the coast. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 47. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 63.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 71.

FRIDAY:  Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 53. High 69.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 45. High 59.

5:38PM

No major changes to the previous discussion. Cold front coming through tonight will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into southern New England through Sunday night. Both tonight and Sunday night will have frost and freeze risk for much of the region, though freezes are not likely near the coast and in urban centers. The greatest freeze threat will be outside the cities, in rural areas, especially valleys.

The dry and tranquil weather will continue through April’s final day on Monday. As we reach the first few days of May, a milder and slightly unsettled pattern will take hold, but it will still be an overall drier than normal pattern through next week. Shower threats seem to be concentrated on Tuesday and perhaps late Friday for next week, though with these days far enough out to be low-confidence in timing, please check back.

Updated forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: High cloudiness decreasing, clear overnight. Low ranging from the upper 20s inland valleys to upper 30s at the shore and in urban centers. Wind W under 10 MPH, calm in some valleys.

SUNDAY: Other than early clouds possible in southeastern MA and southern RI, sunny. High from the lower 50s in the hills northwest of Boston to the upper 50s interior southeastern MA. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low from near 30 to near 40, again coolest in the valleys and mildest near the shore. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 47. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 69.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 71.

FRIDAY:  Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 53. High 69.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 45. High 59.

2:41AM

Departing low pressure and entering high pressure will set up a dry/cool last few days of April. A reinforcing cold front will move through southern New England Saturday night, but will not carry any precipitation with it.

As May begins next week, there may be a few threats of showers, and it will be milder, but the overall dry pattern will rule as shower threats look like they will be from weak and fast-moving systems.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered in the afternoon by high cloudiness. High 54-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: A band of middle clouds moving across the region NW to  SE. Low ranging from near 30 inland valleys to near 40 immediate coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds may linger over southeastern MA & RI early otherwise mostly sunny. High 54-59. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low from the upper 20s inland valleys to upper 30s coast. Wind NW slowly diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 58-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a daily risk of scattered showers. Overnight lows middle 40s to middle 50s. Daytime highs middle 60s to lower 70s.

3:38PM

The whirlpool of unsettled air spinning about the Northeast US will be exiting via southeastern Canada during the next 24 hours as another disturbance travels west to east on a path just south of New England. This will keep slightly unsettled weather in the forecast through Thursday night. After this, a dry spell will return. The disturbance that earlier looked as if it would bring some wet weather Sunday is likely to pass out to sea, south of New England, with high pressure being the main player in the weather starting Friday and lasting well into next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers through 11PM, clearing overnight. Patchy frost forming in outlying suburban and rural areas, especially in deeper valleys. Low 33-38 most inland areas, 38-43 coast and urban centers. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of light rain mid afternoon on favoring areas south of the Mass Pike. High from the mid 50s Cape Cod and the Islands to lower 60s near the MA/NH border. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with light to briefly moderate rain along and south of the Mass Pike and periods of lighter rain north of the Mass Pike. Clearing toward dawn. Low 40-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 54-59. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 56.

SUNDAY: Filtered sunshine. Low 39. High 58.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 63.

4:11PM

Low pressure will continue to spin in the northeastern US into Wednesday before departing via southeastern Canada late Wednesday and Thursday. The center of this low northwest of New England means a mostly southerly wind tonight, shifting more to the west as the low starts to move north of the region during Wednesday. Spokes of energy moving around this low pressure area will cause a chance of showers during this time. Thursday, another low pressure area will move rapidly eastward from the Midwest, bringing a chance of wet weather late day and mainly at night. The track of this low may be just south of the forecast area, which puts us in a risk of a steady period of rain at night, though it does not look like a heavy rain event. This low departs on Friday with drier weather and a gusty wind in its wake. Fair weather is expected Saturday but by Sunday, the next disturbance will return clouds and a chance of showers to the region. A peek into early next week shows mainly fair and slightly milder weather.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Low 41-46. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 42-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 57-62. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Low 45-50. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 57.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 44. High 53.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 61.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

5:47PM

The storm that brought the rain and wind to the area will spin slowly into southeastern Canada through midweek. The circulation around it will send a couple disturbances across southern New England which will send some spokes of  showers through the region. After this low lifts away, another one will cross the region late Thursday and early Friday, but this one will be moving right along and will not be a big rain producer.

An early call on the weekend shows that it may be split with a decent Saturday and an unsettled Sunday.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers lingering. Temperature falling through the 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 43-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. High 58-63. Wind S 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Chance of showers. High 57-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 44. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 57.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 58.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 44. High 53.

MONDAY: Slow clearing. Low 46. High 59.

10:20PM

A drought-denting rain is underway. This is not enough to end the drought over eastern New England, but it is enough to get the deficits down a little. And for the most part the rain is coming in such a way that flooding is not a problem. The heaviest rain areas are moving through during this Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday, with the heaviest axis shifting west of the forecast area as low pressure to the south pivots into the NY/NJ area. The large circulation around this system will impact the weather through Wednesday, but a dry slot moving up from the south will cut off the majority of the rainfall by mid morning Monday, and then only scattered showers will be around due to unstable air for the following couple days. A low pressure trough will remain in control as we get later into the week with another disturbance bringing a shower threat Thursday-Friday. Looking ahead to next weekend, departing low pressure should cause a windy/cool Saturday and high pressure should result in more tranquil weather for Sunday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier showers. Temperature rising from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers becoming less numerous during the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 48-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. High 58-63. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 48. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 48. High 56.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

9:17AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH.  No changes to previous discussion at this time.

Rainfall amounts for upcoming storm: 1/2 to 2 inches generally across the forecast area.  Slight chance a few isolated locations see 2+ inches. Some places get short-changed and come in under 1 inch in this despite all the hype of widespread 2-4 inch rainfall amounts.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle this morning. Periods of rain during the afternoon. Temperature falling through the 50s to the upper 40s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Low 44-49. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially in coastal areas and higher elevations.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 44. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 60.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 57.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 55.

7:46PM

1st, a breakdown of how weather systems impact southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI), and 2nd, a detailed forecast, period by period (nights & days) for the next several days.

Discussion…

Tonight & early Saturday… Moisture moving in on a southerly wind will bring plenty of clouds and maybe a few areas of drizzle.

Saturday midday & afternoon… A slice of early summer-feeling weather with lots of sun and warm air.

Saturday night… Clouds return from the west and a weakening area of showers moves through from a cold front that barely makes it across the region before stopping just offshore.

Sunday… The front sitting just offshore will hold clouds in with some occasional  light rain or drizzle possible, but no significant rain is expected during the day.

Sunday night & Monday… Developing and deepening low pressure to the south, moving up along the front, takes a left turn into the NY/NJ area, sending a slug of heavy rain toward the area. My concern is that the axis of heaviest precipitation may remain west of much of the forecast area, at least eastern sections. A split may even occur where heavier rain goes both east and west of the Boston area. Therefore, I am going to remain conservative on my rainfall forecast at this point. A good round number guess for rain amounts will be 1/2 to 1 inch for eastern areas and 1 to 2 inches with locally heavier toward the west, with the bigger amounts of 2+ inches being further to the west (Worcester Hills westward). This is still uncertain so please check back for updates. A dry slot working into the storm as it spins over NY State later Monday should shut off any significant rain in the eastern portion of southern New England.

Tuesday & Wednesday… Low pressure lingering over the Northeast will produce scattered showers as the air is unstable.

Thursday & Friday… Uncertain, low pressure trough may keep it somewhat unsettled.

Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clouds increasing southwest to northeast. Low 53-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle through mid morning, then turning sunny midday well into afternoon before more clouds approach from the W late afternoon hours. High 74-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Scattered showers moving in west to east by late night. Temperature cooling through the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain and drizzle. Temperature cooling through the 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: AM rain & wind / PM few showers. Low 44. High 54.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of showers. Low 43. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of showers. Low 44. High 57.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 59.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 42. High 61.

8:04PM

What I do know: Friday will be a wonderful mid spring day. The weather will go downhill this weekend through Monday.

What I don’t know: How much rain will fall between Saturday night and Monday. There are too many scenarios with how the interaction of several disturbances will pan out in regards to the timing and location of any significant rain. For now, I’m not even going to go through them in any detail. It will just be something to watch and this medium to low confidence forecast will reflect this approach. Stay tuned for updates…

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 72-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog late. Low 52-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mid to late afternoon. High 67-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 50-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain late day and night. High 55-60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain early. Low 47. High 56.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 43. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 66.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 68.