3:43PM

A quick note for the computer model followers: I’m of the opinion that the 12z ECMWF is a piece of garbage today. It’s far too different from the last several runs for me to buy full-on.  Something’s amiss.

Discussion…

Current mild spell ends midweek as low pressure moves along a slow-moving cold front and gives us some rain Wednesday. Clouds linger behind the departing low Thursday as it turns windy and much cooler. A dry but chilly day is expected Friday due to high pressure building right across the region. High pressure slips offshore by the weekend with yet another warm-up. A disturbance early next week may bring a brief bout of unsettled weather sometime later Monday or  Tuesday, but this does not look like a big deal at this time. A bit early to look at Thanksgiving with any confidence, and even more-so due to some model flip-flopping, so I’ll leave that just out of reach for today and take a first stab at it tomorrow.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few light rain showers. Low 45-50. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mainly during the afternoon hours. High 55-60. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially before midnight. Low 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 62.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain or snow showers at night. Low 41. High 51.

TUESDAY:  Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers early. Low 34. High 46.

Sorry for the delay. Only tweak from previous is cloudier today with a few sprinkles…

6:38PM

Highlights…

* Still in mild regime overall

* Warmest day: Monday

* Wettest day: Wednesday

* Windiest day: Thursday

* Coolest day: Friday

* Weekend Warm-up

Breakdown…

A weakening frontal system moves toward the region Monday, producing varying amounts of clouds and only the slight risk of a few showers in the late afternoon or evening hours.  Warm air will dominate with temperatures sitting at much above normal levels in the 60s. This front settles south of the region Tuesday allowing some sunshine mixed with clouds.  Wet  weather is expected Wednesday as the front hangs up along the coast as a wave of low pressure forms and moves northeastward along it, holding unsettled weather in. Behind this low pressure area Thursday except drier but windy and cooler weather. Continued cool weather is expected Friday but it should be a bright day under high pressure, and once this high slips offshore by the weekend it should turn milder again.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. High 63-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain showers. Low 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 45. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Low 35. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 53.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 43. High 62.

3:36PM

Just an update of the Boston Area Forecast… No major changes from previous discussion. Still working on Wednesday’s forecast. Will carry a chance of rain for now, but subject to change. Leaning in a more pessimistic direction at the moment.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine filtered through variable high cloudiness. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. High 61-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely late. Low 47. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 47. High 55.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 47.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 48.

7:48PM

No complaints this weekend! High pressure slides eastward just south of New England, but with enough influence to provide us with a nice weekend in the Boston area – a cool start Saturday, a seasonable day overall, and turning milder Sunday, a good deal of sun both days but also some middle clouds crossing the northern sky Saturday and some high clouds filtering the sun at times Sunday.

Indian Summer makes a comeback to start next week with temperatures cracking 60 both Monday and Tuesday. Additional clouds are expected, and a few showers are possible Monday, followed by a greater chance of showers later Tuesday.

Midweek rain? Maybe? Maybe not? I’m really not sure how this plays out yet. If a cold front moving through Tuesday night continues to move eastward on Wednesday, we clear out. If it bogs down on the coast, it develops a low pressure wave, holding clouds and rain in for Wednesday. Stay tuned as this part of the forecast is not clear to me.

Late next week looks dry and chilly.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35 inland, 35-40 coast including Boston. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy at times especially north of the Mass Pike. High 50-55. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine filtered through variable high cloudiness. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 41. High 64.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely late. Low 47. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: AM rain. PM clearing. Low 47. High 55.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 47.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 48.

8:30AM

First, I would like to say thank you to all the Veterans who have served us and to all those that are currently serving, including my dad, a WW II Veteran!

Clouds behind our recently-passed cold front will be slow to depart today, but eventually intervals of sun are expected. Either way, expect a blustery and rather chilly day for Veterans Day 2011.

High pressure slips south to southeast of New England this weekend with seasonable temperatures Saturday, milder temperatures Sunday, and fair weather.

Expect another bout of Indian Summer Monday & Tuesday as high pressure remains anchored off the East Coast.  A couple of weak fronts will try to move in during this time, bringing some clouds from time to time, but shower activity should be limited. By later Tuesday or Wednesday as one of these fronts pushes toward the East Coast and slows down, we’ll have to watch for an area of low pressure that could form on it and enhance the rainfall. It’s difficult to time this well in advance, so the extended outlook will be one of limited confidence.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 38-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 64.

TUESDAY: Late-day showers. Low 46. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 42. High 52.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 50.

2:59PM

Tropical moisture moving south to north across the Boston area will soak the region with rain over the next few hours. A cold front moving west to east across the region will cause a few more showers overnight, and some wrap-around moisture associated with its parent low pressure system will hold some clouds in for Friday morning. Expect clearing in the afternoon as dry air works in, along with a gusty wind.

High pressure means a great weekend, with a cool start and mild finish.

Indian Summer returns early next week!

Full discussion later… Forecast update now…

THROUGH EARLY EVENING: Overcast with moderate to heavy rain. Temperature cooling from the lower 60s into the 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 42-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 47. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM showers. Low 41. High 58.

Full forecast later…sorry for the delay.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, especially in the afternoon, greatest chance of heavier showers along and east of Route 95. High 55-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early, heaviest near the coastline. Patchy fog. One more round of scattered showers from west to east a bit later at night. Low 42-47. Wind variable becoming N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sun and passing clouds. High 50-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 54.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 63.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

7:18PM

This round of Indian Summer is just about to end, but not after one more very mild day on Wednesday. A cold front will be moving into New England from the west Thursday, crossing the region from west to east at night. At the same time as this, Tropical Storm Sean will be moving northward in the waters offshore, probably far enough to keep its heaviest rain out over the water, but close enough that it will steal energy and moisture from the approaching cold front. The net result of this is probably less rain that we would have seen with these systems interacting slightly differently or arriving in a more separated fashion. There is, however, a slight chance of one slug of heavier showers along and/or east of Route 95 sometime late Thursday afternoon or early evening as one plume of tropical moisture gets away from Sean and tries to move up in the upper level southerly flow ahead of the cold front. There is about a 50/50 chance that the thrust of this heavier shower activity stays just offshore – something that we need to watch via radar on Thursday.

Behind the cold front, Friday (Veterans Day) will be a blustery, cool day, but should also be dry. I’m removing any chance of showers from the forecast as I think the already moisture starved system will be just sucking in more dry air from the west.

The Weekend: High pressure will be in control, though it will star to slide offshore by Sunday. Dry weather will dominate, along with a good deal of sunshine probably both days. Some medium range computer models try to bring cloudiness in rather quickly on Sunday, but I’m staying optimistic, thinking these clouds will be limited. Either way, expect no rain. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday, but moderate to seasonable. Sunday will turn a little milder.

Earlier, I stated that “this round” of Indian Summer was about to end. We’re not done, as I believe high pressure along and just off the East Coast will strengthen, with next week’s Monday-Tuesday possibly being very similar to this week’s – fair and mild to warm.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low ranging from the upper 30s inland valley areas to around 50 in Boston. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 46-51. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, especially in the afternoon, greatest chance of heavier showers along and east of Route 95. High 55-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early, heaviest near the coastline. Patchy fog. One more round of scattered showers from west to east a bit later at night. Low 42-47. Wind variable becoming N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sun and passing clouds. High 50-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 54.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 63.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

11:08PM

No significant changes to the discussion posted yesterday. Timing of systems is still similar. Dry/mild weather dominates through Wednesday. A transition to cooler weather for the end of the week means that a wet day is likely Thursday. How much rain falls is still up in the air (no pun intended). A low pressure area east of the Bahamas may become a tropical system and move northward into a position that it could either throw a band of heavy rain into the region later Thursday, or just as easily keep it offshore, robbing the region of moisture for really heavy rain. If this happens, the front coming in from the west may also lose some of its punch and produce less widespread rain. Based on this, Thursday’s forecast is low confidence and so I will just leave the wording the same for now.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the upper 30s suburban areas to middle 40s coast and Boston. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70 but cooling back toward 60 along the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable to E in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from near 40 inland to near 50 at the coast. Wind light SE.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Heavier rain possible at night. Low 50. High 60.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers early morning & late day. Gusty winds. Low 44. High 54.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 51.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 61.

3:51PM

Sunset in Boston today: 4:32PM. Welcome to the Dark Days! Personally, I love this time of year. As a traditionalist, I love the feeling of going back to standard time (not that I mind DST). As a weather geek, I like the fact the info comes in an hour earlier than it has been. And as a little kid inside (still), I love the feeling that the holidays are on their way…

But just because we are suddenly looking at sunsets well before 5PM does not mean we’re about to be nothing but cold. In fact, Indian Summer is going to be with us for the first part of the week in the Boston area, with dry weather and much above normal temperatures. I’m not expecting anyone to break into the 70s, though a few places may touch 70. Earlier, I thought Wednesday might be the best day for this, but now I think Monday or Tuesday may be, as we may end up with a little too much southeast wind off the ocean by Wednesday. Either way, mild times are returning after a brief shot of chilly air. Enjoy!

Later in the week, a frontal system will bring a chance of showers, but they will be rain showers, not snow showers, as the air will still be quite mild on Thursday. Drier weather will begin to move in on Friday but with gusty winds, as a low pressure area that forms on the front strengthens as it moves away. This should set us up for a decent mid November weekend, a long week for some, starting on Friday, as it is Veterans Day. And on that note, in advance I would like to thank all of the Veterans as well as those currently serving our country for their service!

Forecast details for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from the middle to upper 20s inland valleys to the middle to upper 30s along the coast and in Boston. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 65-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Low ranging from near 30 inland low lying areas to near 40 along the coast. Wind near calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High 63-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 35-40 inland valleys, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind light S.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Heavier rain possible at night. Low 50. High 60.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers early morning & late day. Gusty winds. Low 44. High 54.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 51.

2:51AM

No significant changes to the previous discussion.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny. High 47-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 20-25 inland valleys, 26-31 elsewhere. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 58.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 41. High 49.

4:23PM

A cold front with only enough moisture for clouds will cross the region tonight and early Friday. High pressure will build in over the weekend with cold air as it moves in and crests overhead. Fair and warming weather is expected early next week as the high slips offshore, giving the Boston area a bout of Indian Summer weather. The next threat of any precipitation is not expected until sometime the middle of next week…

Detailed Forecast for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low in the upper 30s except lower 40s Boston and coastline. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Increasing sunshine. High from the upper 40s inland higher elevations to lower 50s Boston and coastline. Wind NW to N 10-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low from the middle 20s inland to lower 30s at the coastline. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High in the middle to upper 40s. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low from the upper 10s inland valleys to upper 20s coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High in the middle to upper 50s. Wind variable to SSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 61.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 69.

THURSDAY: Rain showers. Low 47. High 55.

5:03PM

High pressure will continue to be the main player in the weather. One moisture-starved cold front will cross the region Thursday night with mild air ahead of it and a shot of cold air behind it for Friday-Saturday. Return flow behind high pressure will send more mild to eventually warm air into the region by early to mid next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the upper 20s inland valleys to middle 30s Boston and immediate coastline. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds move in from the west early then exit west to east before dawn. Low in the middle to upper 30s. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the upper 40s. Wind N  5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low in the middle to upper 20s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High in the upper 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH in the morning, becoming light variable in the afternoon.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 22. High 55.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 60.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 70.

4:52PM

High pressure will be the main player for the next 7 days with fair weather being the rule. Some clouds and some temperature fluctuations can be expected from time to time.

Details for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 29-34 inland, 35-40 coastal & urban areas. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 50-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 31-36 inland, 37-42 coastal areas. Wind light varaible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 54.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 56.