C-19 Chat Post – 5-12-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

The Rex Block (high pressure north / low pressure south) that has been dominating our pattern for several days will gradually weaken and break down during the next 5 days. A maritime air flow hangs on for another day as low pressure to the south gradually starts to loosen its grip and high pressure still sits to the north. The orientation of the low to our south has changed so that it can throw back one larger scale lobe of moisture in the form of cloudiness, which will move in today, peak tonight, and break up and exit gradually on Thursday, as high pressure drifts right into the region. This high will sit over to just south and east of the region as we get into Friday and more so by the weekend, so our transition to a region-wide warmer regime will take place, albeit slowly. The coastal areas will hang onto cooler conditions longer, as is typical of springtime. The warmest day for most of us should be Saturday, when the wind is mainly from the southwest, but eastern areas may be a little less warm by Sunday as the wind flow may be more from due south, and bring in more influence from the cooler ocean water south of the area. Generally dry weather is expected during the next 5 days. The exceptions will be a few showers around Cape Cod mainly early today, perhaps a few pockets of drizzle mainly in coastal areas tonight and early Thursday due to lower level moisture from the ocean, and a few isolated showers which may pop up over the weekend, favoring inland areas, but this chance is quite low.

TODAY: Clouds increase east to west. A few rain showers around Cape Cod. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Fog patches. Chance of coastal drizzle. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 57-64 coastal plain, 65-72 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland, but can drop during the afternoon especially in coastal areas. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Remote chance of isolated showers inland areas. Highs 77-84 except cooler coastal areas especially South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers inland locadtions. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Upper air pattern looks more zonal (west to east) with a tendency for high pressure ridging near the East Coast. This is not automatically a warm pattern the entire time though, especially in the spring. We do likely have a warm day to start the period on May 16 as a cold front approaches and crosses the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat. A shot of dry but cooler air follows this. A warm up may try to take place later in the period but that will depend on the orientation and movement of a frontal boundary in the region, which threatens more clouds and possibly some rainfall, but looking this far into the future this does not look like it would produce significant rainfall. Our region is in need of rain to quell brush fire threats and prevent future abnormally dry / drought conditions from developing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Today’s leaning is for more a somewhat progressive pattern versus blocking, though we need to watch that as guidance can misfire on picking it up, or waffle back and forth. Right now going with a zonal flow but more troughing here and ridging back toward the Midwest. This would be a dry but slightly cooler pattern for our region.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-11-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

For now we hold onto the air flow from the ocean with low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north. Eventually this changes as the high to the north, while weakening, slips down over our region with much lighter wind Thursday and Friday, still allowing coastal sea breezes but allowing the region to warm up, especially away from the coast. Once we get to Saturday we’ll have a more regionwide southwesterly air flow that warms more of the region except where that wind still crosses water before reaching land. It looks like this 5 day period will continue our dry spell too.

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds at times, sunshine elsewhere. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 coastal plain, 66-73 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 76-83 inland, but may turn cooler in any coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84 except cooler coastal areas especially South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Hanging onto the warm air but still watch the coast for cooling on May 15, but it should be fair with just some clouds at times. Cold front from the west moves through May 16 with a shower threat, but still warm temperatures. Fair, cooler weather as Canadian high pressure arrives toward the middle of next week, based on current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

Guidance remains in waffle mode between weak zonal flow and a weak blocking pattern. We’ll likely be on the fence between the 2 with no strong anomalies in temperature but vulnerable to maritime influences especially coast, and a continuation of the trend of below normal precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-10-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

The set-up we had over the weekend – high pressure to our north, low pressure to our south – is still in place, but the overall orientation of the pair has shifted to the south a little bit, and this will be our regime for today and Tuesday, keep us dry but cool and breezy. On Wednesday, the low to the south stretches out somewhat and a lobe of it tries to get closer by rotating northwestward from the waters southeast of New England, so we’ll get a band of clouds back into the picture for part of the day. I’d waffled back and forth a bit on a shower threat for this, and for this forecast I’ll put it back in play as a possibility for Wednesday for eastern sections of Massachusetts. Finally, on Thursday, the high pressure center, even though weaker, will have made its way over our region with light wind and a warm-up, especially away from the coast where sea breezes can still develop. This warm up should establish itself further by Friday as we get the axis of high pressure to sink to the south a little more and help the overall wind flow shift to more westerly, giving our region its first preview of summer…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a possible rain shower southeastern MA and RI. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 coastal plain, 68-75 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 76-83 inland, but may turn cooler in any coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Surface high pressure drifts to the south then east. Need to watch a potential boundary to the north that can slip down as a back door front over the May 14-15 weekend. Right now calling for fair and warm weather and a bit cooler at the coast May 14, a few more clouds and a possible shower May 15 and then may clear out with that day having a better chance at a wind at least somewhat onshore for the region and cooler for all areas. Pattern tries to have a little more west to east movement early next week with a frontal system moving through with a shower threat around May 16 then a turn to fair and cooler weather, but this part of the forecast remains low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Guidance is split between weak zonal flow and a weak blocking pattern. We’ll likely be on the fence between the 2 with no strong anomalies in temperature but vulnerable to maritime influences especially coast, and a continuation of the trend of below normal precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

We remain in the high pressure north / low pressure south block at this time. In typical fashion of both springtime and this pattern, your best weather on Saturday was away from the coast, as the South Coast had periods of rain, and both coasts had persistent wind that was rather gusty, especially east-facing shores. Although it was breezy inland as well, the filtered sunshine helped it be a more pleasant day in a relative sense. Today, as that battle between high pressure and low pressure continues, the high to the north continues to gain and the South Coast rain sits mainly offshore, but we still have to deal with a cloud shield allowing some limited sun, and a gusty breeze. Travels to Mother’s Day brunches and visits will likely require a jacket. Happy Mother’s Day! High pressure pushes even further south Monday which should be a nicer day with more sun and a bit less wind, although we will still have a cool maritime breeze blowing. This general set-up will hold into the middle of next week, with the easterly flow gradually relaxing as the high center from the north gets closer. A stretching of the low pressure to the south may toss some additional clouds back into our sky toward midweek, but it should remain dry. When we get to Thursday, high pressure should be right over us with a sun-warmed air mass allowing a warm-up here, but a weak wind field allowing for sea breezes, keeping the coast cooler.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 coastal plain, 68-75 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

On the large scale, we continue to see some blocking during the middle of May. For us here, we should see surface high pressure sink to the south with a more significant warm-up for a couple days, but we need to watch for coastal sea breezes and even a back-door front threat as early as May 14. The air flow may turn more southerly and introduce more cloudiness and even a shower threat at some point mid to late period, but this is a lower confidence forecast at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Weaker blocking transitioning to zonal (west to east) flow continues to be the idea with variable temperatures averaging near normal and a mostly dry pattern other than minor systems bringing brief shower threats.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-8-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

Blocking. Spring. New England. These terms are very related and you all know that by now. This weather pattern is in place and the storm system we’ve been talking about all week as being a watcher for late week into the weekend is indeed performing as expected so far – rain near the South Coast, and a sharp cut off to that precipitation with the bulk of our area dry. This is going to be the case today, and then the rain should get pushed even further south during Sunday and on through Monday as well, as Canadian high pressure gains in the battle between it and that low pressure area to the south. All the while we will continue to endure a regionwide easterly flow, which you know means cool weather at this time of year. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, the orientation of low pressure to the south may change enough so that some cloudiness is thrown back westward into our area and high pressure is still held at bay to the north and west of here. This would continue a general onshore easterly flow and introduce the chance of a few showers, but 1) I’m not confident this is how it plays out and 2) if it does play out this way I would not expect a heavy rain event – just some unsettled weather toward the middle of the coming week. Obviously, some fine-tuning will be necessary for that part of the outlook.

TODAY: Filtered sun at times southern NH / northern MA and heavier overcast to the south with periods of rain South Coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly near the South Coast. Lows 43-50.Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Clouds/sun intervals with clouds most dominant closer to South Coast and sun becoming more dominant first to the north then south later. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring Cape Cod. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers RI and eastern MA. Lows 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

On the large scale, we continue to see some blocking into the middle of May. For us here, we should see surface high pressure sink to the south during the first few days of this period with a general temperature warm-up. Always have to watch for sea breezes or a back-door cold front, especially toward mid period. Later in the period another Canadian high may send cooler air down from the north or in a more indirect fashion via the Gulf of Maine. I’m not quite sure how this plays out yet this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Weaker blocking transitioning to zonal (west to east) flow is my current idea. Variable temperatures but overall warmer trend with a fairly dry pattern – minor systems.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-7-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

A blocking pattern will continue to be in control during the next 5 days. Much of this time we’ll have high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure strung out just to the south of New England. The low pressure area will be close enough to keep us under its canopy of clouds into Sunday, with most rainfall limited to the South Coast – with maybe a couple of pushes northward toward the I-90 belt at times that generally get thwarted by dry air. Eventually, high pressure starts to win the battle during Sunday and into early next week with increasing sunshine as the low gets pushed southeastward. This pattern is a cool one for our area though with a broad scale onshore (easterly) air flow much of the time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Some light rain possible near the South Coast this afternoon. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle. A few periods of rain possible near the South Coast. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle. A few periods of rain possible near the South Coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain south of I-90. Chance of coastal drizzle. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with possible coastal drizzle during the morning. Breaking clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Leaning toward a drier pattern and a little uncertainty as to we remain under the influence of weak blocking or finally get into a more zonal pattern. Re-evaluation needed. Temperatures should be fairly close to normal, maybe a bit above with enough land breezes.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-6-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

A blocking pattern will control our weather for the next several days. High pressure at the surface brings fair and mild weather today, but a storm system to the south gets close enough to result in an easterly air flow Friday and the weekend, with cloudiness and some rain potential for southern areas, favoring the South Coast, later Friday and especially Saturday. Cautiously optimistic that a southward push of high pressure clears us out again during Sunday and through Monday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast, Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

May sit in battle zone between warmer high pressure to the south and cool high pressure in Canada, leaving us vulnerable to additional unsettled weather and variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-5-2022