C-19 Chat Post – July 4 2020

9:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

A back-door cold front has made its way across a good portion of the region this morning, and while slowing down is still keeping enough momentum to finish its journey across the entire WHW forecast area by midday today. Generous low level moisture means lots of stratus clouds, which as of the writing of this blog update at 9:30AM) have yet to reach southern RI and eastern CT, but will get there too. We’ve reached the high temperature for the day at this point in most areas, with any additional rise very brief, before temperatures steady out or slide slowly back during the remainder of the day. As for thunderstorm development today, it will be confined to where the warm air is, i.e., well to the west. Remnants of these may get into Worcester County and eastern CT and even parts of northern and western RI later in the day or this evening, but that should be it for those. We may also see a shower or thunderstorm briefly visit Nantucket or the elbow of Cape Cod around midnight tonight or the early hours of Saturday due to an inverted trough nearby, but that will push offshore, and during the day Saturday the region will just be left in a layer of marine air and onshore (easterly) air flow. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side, especially at the coast, where cloudiness will also be the most stubborn. Inland locations have a better chance of seeing clouds break for some sun at times. A weak trough may cause a sneaky shower to visit the NH Seacoast in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. During the day Sunday we’ll get into a southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching trough, and this will pretty much eradicate the marine layer and allow the region to warm up. It’ll also be rather humid Sunday, and with the approaching disturbance from the north, expect thunderstorms to ignite across northern New England during the afternoon, then making their way down, at least in isolated to scattered form, late in the day or evening. Some of these may be on the strong side. Early call on the areas most likely to be impacted are south central and southeastern NH and eastern MA, but cannot rule them out in any area. So while not the best weather for Independence Day Weekend, certainly not the worst either. When we get to early next week, warm and humid weather will be in control Monday and Tuesday, and while weather systems are weak, there will be a couple disturbances nearby and those, with the help of any sea breeze boundaries can help pop some showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours, and of course outflow boundaries from these can help spark additional development.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Late afternoon showers possible central MA, northeastern CT, and RI. Highs 68-75 occurring by late morning, then steady or slowly falling temperatures thereafter. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast, except variable to eventually NE up to 10 MPH in central MA to northeastern CT.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of showers central MA to northwestern RI early. Risk of a brief shower or thunderstorm mainly near Nantucket late night. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy coast with possible drizzle. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny inland. Highs 65-70 coast, 71-76 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A brief shower possible near the NH Seacoast late night. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms, becoming variable under 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 3 2020

2:48PM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

Apologies for the very late post today. The situation was unavoidable. I am currently on a mobile device using voice to text for this discussion so I will keep it as short as possible and hopefully it does not misinterpret my voice. Basically there are no changes of any significance to the forecast issued yesterday. After today’s brief taste of summer following a few days of cooler and unsettled weather, a cold front will drop southward through the region tonight and Friday and reintroduce cooler air to the region. The approach and passage of that front may still trigger some isolated showers and thunderstorms from late today through late this evening. While most areas will likely see nothing any place that does see one of these could experience briefly strong wind, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and possible hail. So be on the lookout for this just in case. During the day Friday cloudiness will be dominant, and there will be a cool northeasterly air flow. Areas much further inland will be more exempt from the cooling influence of the ocean as the front will have run out of steam somewhat while moving into that region. It’s presence there combined with more heating will be a focus for a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Friday. this would occur from southwestern New Hampshire through Central Mass into northeastern Connecticut and possibly northern Rhode Island. Areas to the east of here would be much less likely to see showers or storms of any consequence. A weak area of high pressure will try to push everything out of here on Saturday but it’s center may never get far enough south to rid at least the coastline of its cloudiness. Inland locations would have a better shot at breaking out of the clouds and being the warmest. What is left of this high pressure area should bring drier and somewhat warmer weather to the entire region Sunday, But a disturbance coming down from the northwest may trigger a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or during the evening for parts of the region. There is no real push of cooler dryer air behind that disturbance so Monday will probably just turn out to be one of those partly cloudy, seasonably warm, and moderately humid kind of summer days.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts late day. Highs 78-83 shoreline, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring southwestern NH and central MA to northern RI. Highs 68-73 southern NH and northeastern MA, 73-78 elsewhere, occurring in the morning, then turning cooler during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of showers mainly west of Boston early. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy coast with possible drizzle. Partly sunny inland. Chance of a shower anywhere. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm mainly north of Boston late in the day. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Lows 60-67. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 2 2020

8:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

Change the month – change the pattern? Well, not this time, at least not today. Upper level low pressure sits over the region for one more day, with similar weather to the last few days: lots of clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms re-instigated by daytime heating, although coverage today may be down a little bit in the region overall from the last few days. Regardless, outside of flooding issues from Sunday, any rain that any area has gotten has been beneficial to putting a dent in the longer-term deficit. Finally, this low departs tonight and we get a small area of high pressure to provide a nice summer day on Thursday, but don’t blink or you’ll miss it. Down from the north comes a cold front on Friday with a push from high pressure in eastern Canada, and the wind turns northeast to east during Friday and right into Saturday – Independence Day, which I’ve been a little more concerned about weatherwise during the last couple updates. Looks to me like we will be on the cooler side of normal and see clouds dominate. What remains to be seen are the following, but all of these are a potential… 1) Thunderstorms late Thursday night ahead of the cold front. 2) Additional showers and a possible thunderstorm sometime Friday as the front pushes to the south and southwest. 3) Some drizzle or a few showers Saturday mainly from the air flow coming off the ocean. So a few details to work out. By Sunday, we should be back under a small area of high pressure and enjoy another nice day.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Patchy drizzle and isolated showers early to mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms midday through afternoon. Highs 73-80, warmest well inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible early. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-83 shoreline, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring southwestern NH and central MA to northern RI. Highs 68-73 southern NH and northeastern MA, 73-78 elsewhere, occurring in the morning, then turning cooler during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of a shower. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 1 2020

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Final day of June / first day of July … same deal, low pressure over the region, unsettled weather. Today will probably resemble yesterday, while tomorrow offers a shot at a bit more sun, still some heavier showers/storms possible but coverage may drop and favor areas to the south and west. Interlude of air and warmer weather Thursday as this low is gone and a sliver of high pressure controls the weather, then another cold front drops down from Canada to cool things back down for the end of the week. The wildcard is whether or not we turn a little less fair again, weather-wise. Leaning toward drier in terms of rainfall, but we may have to contend with quite a bit of cloudiness by Independence Day.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 75-82. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Transition toward a more zonal pattern begins. Fair weather July 5. More humidity with a risk of a few showers / thunderstorms at times July 6-9. Temperatures variable but near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Weak to moderate zonal flow pattern. Limited shower / thunderstorm chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 30 2020

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

Low pressure, with more potency than most forecast indicated, triggered quite the thunderstorm event for a good portion of the region during Sunday. We’ve heard the stories by now, so it’s time to look ahead to what else it has in store for us, and that is 3-days of unsettled weather to end the month of June and start July. I think today and Tuesday will the 2 coolest and least sunny of the 3 days, but any sun that does occur will help fuel the development of showers and possible thunderstorms, which will be around all 3 days anyway. Timing-wise, I think activity can occur pretty much any time today and Tuesday and will be weighted more toward afternoon favoring areas further south and west on Wednesday. The upper low finally loses its grip on us with a sliver of high pressure to make Thursday a nicer summer day, and while Friday also looks dry it will be cooler with a new surge of Canadian air via the Canadian Maritimes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind calm then NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 75-82. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day Weekend July 4-5 looks fair with moderate temperatures due to Canadian high pressure in control, coolest likely along the coast. Warmer and more humid weather returns in the July 6-8 period with a slight increase in the risk of showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Expecting a shift toward a shift to a more zonal flow pattern with minor disturbance, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 29 2020

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Instead of the novel you got with yesterday’s update, let’s go with a short summary for today’s. Nothing’s really changed in the outlook. We have a cold front that will move through the region slowly during today and this evening, but it’s slow enough that it really won’t make it through the entire region until sometime tonight. That means that any time starting just after daytime maximum heating, through this evening, there can be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. While not everybody will get them, those that day can see heavy downpours, briefly gusty winds, lightning, and possible small hail. So if you have outdoor plans this afternoon and/or evening, be on the look-out for that. Once the front is through we get into a northerly to easterly air flow for the first few days of the coming week, the final 2 days of June and first day of July, and with cold air aloft, the daytime heating will ignite isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Again, not a widespread rainfall situation, but something to watch for. The most likely areas for these may shift each day, from anywhere Monday to more over the interior Tuesday then more to the south by Wednesday. High pressure, centered to the north through Wednesday, should drift down across the region for a fair and warmer Thursday next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 75-82. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

A cold front drops down from the north sometime July 3 with a brief shower or t-storm threat, and another high pressure area from eastern Canada brings fair but not-too-hot weather for the Independence Day Weekend. Some warmth and humidity, along with a shower/t-storm risk may return early the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Continuing to cautiously lean toward a shift to a more zonal flow pattern with minor disturbance, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 28 2020

8:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

There are a lot of little details to get to, and I want to keep the explanation as simple as possible, without taking up the entire weekend to try to explain the weekend’s weather. 😉 … Today, a warm front approaches (again) more a dew point boundary since we’re not going to warm up significantly behind it, but getting it through here may be a bit of a process. An initial impulse races east southeastward into New England today and turns our sunny start into a mainly cloudy afternoon with a shield of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms. This will also be fighting dry air as it arrives so it may “look” worse on radar than what actually occur at ground level in most areas. Where the front itself is located, near the South Coast, is where we may see some heavier surface-based convection and stronger storms. I do not expected widespread big boomers in the area today. That activity will be limited. It may even be limited to southwestern CT and never quite get into the WHW forecast area at all. This little wave of low pressure that forms on the front as it tries to cross the region will give us a lesson in mesoscale meteorology, as it likely turns the surface wind to the east over southern NH and adjacent far northern MA, eventually to shift more to the north as it moves offshore. This will cause a notable cool-down in these areas after they reach their high temperatures late this morning and midday, just prior to the heaviest clouds arriving and eventual wind shift. To the south of here, the winds will be more variable to southwesterly on the other side of the boundary, but may shift more to the northwest for a while this evening with a less-dramatic cool down there. Eventually, the boundary lifts back to the north once it’s free of the small low pressure area’s influence, and we get a light but more regional southwesterly flow and rising humidity overnight. A wild card during this process is whether or not there will be additional showers and thunderstorms. History shows this set-up can pop them, but history also shows when we’re in a developing or existing drought, any rain is hard to come by. I’ll leave them in the forecast, isolated in nature, overnight. And now to Sunday, the same boundary that goes through today / tonight comes back again as a cold front, but slowly, and will be the focal point for episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Expect this activity to occur mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. So there’s your weekend in a very large nut shell, sounding a lot worse than it will actually be, as the majority of the time at any one location will be rain-free. So what about early next week? As we wrap up June and begin July in the Monday-Wednesday period, an upper level low pressure will be over the region as part of a blocking pattern, and with general surface high pressure to the north, the general air flow will be northerly to northeasterly at times. This pattern is cooler for temperatures, but enough daytime heating with cold air aloft is a set-up for instability showers and thunderstorms. When this set-up occurs, showers and storms don’t even have to be that strong to produce hail. So we will have to watch for that. More fine-tuning to come with the early next week situation…

TODAY: Sunny start, then rapidly clouding over late morning-midday. Generally cloudy this afternoon with a period of rain and embedded thunderstorms. A heavier thunderstorm is possible south of I-90 as well. Highs 78-85 by midday. Temperatures falling gradually at first this afternoon then a little more quickly later in the day, especially in southern NH and far northern MA so by evening 60-68 should be common, with coolest readings southern NH. Wind SW up to 10 MPH through early afternoon, shifting to E briefly in southern NH and northeastern MA and becoming variable most other areas except staying SW near the South Coast during mid afternoon into evening.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 57-64, coolest in southern NH. Wind N-NW north of I-90, NW-W south of I-90 up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

High pressure shifts over and then briefly southeast of the region with fair and a little warmer weather July 2-3. A new high pressure area from eastern Canada may bring a batch of cooler air down for the Independence Day Weekend, but this is a low confidence forecast. Inconsistent guidance ranges from a quick turn to cooler/dry weather with a warm-up by July 6 to a period of unsettled and cool weather all of those days. This far in advance I’m somewhere in between, and will try to add a bit more detail next update. One thing I am more confident of is that I see no widespread beneficial rain.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Continuing to cautiously lean toward a shift to a more zonal flow pattern with minor disturbance, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 27 2020