12:59AM

This is that time of year that the sun is really making a difference. We have a fresh cool air mass now over southeastern New England, and the temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler in most areas today than they were on Tuesday. But the strong April sunshine will make the air feel warmer than it is, especially since it will be a west wind and not a widespread ocean wind (a west wind does still come off the ocean for parts of the South Coast so it will be cooler there). Some fair weather clouds will pop up from late morning into afternoon as sun hearing the ground will send some bubbles of moisture into the cold air aloft.  The cooler northwest wind of today will shift around to the southwest and start to warm things up on Thursday, with sunshine dominating, though some high clouds may start to increase in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will be moving along initially and will pass through the region by early Friday morning, bringing clouds and a risk of a few rain showers. It should push just far enough to allow some partial clearing into at least areas north and west of Boston on Friday while clouds hang on to the southeast. Clouds will likely return to all areas Friday night and Saturday morning, with perhaps some wet weather, as a wave of low pressure slides along the front nearby. Then, high pressure should push in for drier weather later Saturday and Sunday. A warm front will push through the region late Sunday and open the door for a much warmer shot of air at the beginning of next week.  This should be accompanied by fair weather but gusty winds on Monday, but clouds and showers may arrive Tuesday as yet another cold front approaches from the west.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny start and finish with fair weather clouds in between. Highs 52-57, coolest in the hills NW of Boston. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-33 inland valleys, 34-39 elsewhere. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny into late afternoon then increasing high clouds at the end of the day. Highs 60-65 except 50s  South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a risk of rain showers. Some sun especially NW of Boston afternoon, clouds dominate to the SE. Low 48. High 61.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 45. High 56.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 51. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

6:53PM

A mild Monday saw sun fading behind increasing cloudiness, and rain is set to move in tonight. This rain accompanies a warm front that will cross the region overnight, followed by a cold front that will sweep west to east through the region Tuesday as low pressure moves down the St. Lawrence Valley. The air with this system, even behind the cold front, will be fairly mild, so expect many areas to break 60 for high temperatures on Tuesday. A second front will cross the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday and send a cooler air mass into the region for Wednesday and early Thursday with a northwesterly wind. But winds quickly shift around to the southwest later Thursday as high pressure slips to the southeast of the region, and this will bring briefly milder air in again by Friday, just in time for the arrival of another cold front during Friday, bringing the threat of rain showers. This front may struggle to push through the region so cloudiness may linger into part of Saturday before fair weather takes over for the balance of the weekend, with slight cooling Saturday followed by a warm-up Sunday. This warm up will continue into the start of next week between high pressure offshore and a storm and frontal system to the west of the region.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Chance of embedded thunderstorms especially late. Lows 45-50, rising into the 50s overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms early morning tapering to scattered then isolated showers mid through late morning. Becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers afternoon. Highs 60-65 except 50s South Coast. Wind S shifting to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 57.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 62.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 55.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 74.

3:04AM

High pressure exits to the northeast and low pressure approaches from the southwest today spreading a shield of cloudiness into southeastern New England. By tonight, a warm front will approach and send a batch of rain across the region. Low pressure will pass west of the region early Tuesday then head down the St. Lawrence Valley, first dragging the warm front through the area then sweeping a cold front west to east. Rain will diminish to showers as the warm air arrives, then drier air will sweep in behind the cold front later Tuesday, which will be a fairly mild day. A shot of chilly air will wait until a secondary front crosses the region Wednesday with some passing clouds and a gusty wind. It won’t take long for this shot of chilly air to pass and a southwesterly flow will develop on Thursday, which will start chilly but end warmer. A cold front will approach the region Friday causing some rain showers. The timing of this front remains uncertain several days in advance, so the temperature as well as sky/weather forecast is somewhat low confidence at this time. It looks like the front will push through far enough for fair and cooler weather Saturday and milder weather Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s, coolest near the coast. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms during the morning then scattered lighter showers midday. Clearing mid to late afternoon. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 59.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 44. High 61.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 56.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 63.

11:30AM

A westerly flow will dominate the region, not the frequent east wind we often see this time of year. Sunshine will be limited today due to low level moisture and cold air moving in aloft. This is a recipe for lots of clouds, and even when the sun does shine it just cooks up more clouds. By Sunday, the lower level moisture will be gone and the upper air will be warming, which means much more sunshine!

Monday and Tuesday will be the time for the approach and passage of a southern stream storm system, the center of which will pass northwest of New England and up the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday. This means that we enter the warm sector on Tuesday, after sun gets filtered and faded by increasing clouds Monday and we get a good slug of rain Monday night. Though being in the warm sector Tuesday does not mean we bust out in to abundant warm sunshine. There will be lots of moisture so clouds will dominate and some showers may linger.

Midweek, that is, Wednesday and Thursday, will resemble today and Sunday in many aspects, though it looks like moisture will be little less available Wednesday so cloudiness should be less extensive than what we are seeing today.

The next weather system arrives Friday – a cold front, with a chance of rain showers. The timing of this front is uncertain. A slower timing of the front would mean a warmer day, a quicker timing would mean a more unsettled day with clouds and showers. But why worry so much about day 7? Let’s just wait and see, and enjoy a pretty decent spell of weather through midweek other than the clouds today and the rainy interruption Monday night into Tuesday.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 50-58, coolest in the hills NW of Boston, mildest interior southeastern MA and northern RI. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, rain at night. Low 35. High 57.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, rain showers through midday. Low 48. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 36. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 33. High 61.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy, chance of rain showers. Low 46. High 64.

6:05PM

What a great day for baseball … today was. Too bad the home opener for the Red Sox at Fenway Park, just a few miles from the ocean, is tomorrow (Friday). It’s going to be a cold one. Not Arctic cold, but ocean cold. East wind, thickening overcast, temperature in the 40s. That’s a chill to deal with when one is sitting in a park watching a game that evokes memories of hot summer afternoons and warm summer evenings. Patience all. Patience. Those days will come – though the heat part of it may be to the dislike of some of you. What is true now is that we have to deal with the influence of the cold waters of the North Atlantic, which sits right next to us, and has a profound impact on weather near and several miles inland from the coastline on a fairly routine basis during the Spring. Hey, at least the rain will stay away for most of the game, though we can’t rule it out by later in the game, hopefully very light! Yes, more rain on the way, not that it’s been excessively wet of late. March was on the dry side, actually, for much of it, with a very wet ending to the month. But we do have more rain coming, Friday night and early Saturday, as low pressure passes north of the region but drags a warm front through to start with, and then a cold front just behind it. The speed of the system means that Saturday, though starting wet and grey, turns much nicer during the course of the day as a drier and milder west wind develops. And it gets even better. A little bubble high comes in for Sunday and makes it a very nice day ’round these parts. With lighter winds, however, we cannot rule out sea breeze which would set up a significant contrast between coastal and inland temperatures. But it does look like whatever the temperature, that sunshine will be the rule.

Once we start the new week, a new low pressure area will be coming out of the southern US and heading into the northeastern US, probably taking a similar path to the system of Friday night and early Saturday. The weather for Monday and Tuesday may closely resemble that of Friday and Saturday, with fine tuning to be done of course as that time nears.

By the middle of next week, medium range guidance ranges from a chance of snow to a partly cloudy and mild stretch of weather. With a little science mixed with a little optimistic ignorance, I’ll be generalizing a low confidence outlook for Wednesday/Thursday which is subject to change. So please have a salt shaker ready for when you read those, unless you are on a low sodium diet of course. 😉

Read on to find the detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Increasing high cloudiness. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast/urban areas. Wind N under 10 MPH diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Filtered sun especially northern MA and southern NH fading in the afternoon. Thicker overcast southern MA and RI with some very light rain possible South Coast area midday and early afternoon then pushing northeastward later in the day.  Highs in the 40s. Wind calm to start then E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Temperatures hold in the 40s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, around 20 MPH at times coast.

SATURDAY: Morning is mainly cloudy with early rain showers, drizzle, and areas of fog. Afternoon turns partly sunny to eventually mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s, may touch 60. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH early, then W 10-20 MPH in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60 but may cool in some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH but local seabreezes possible.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible at night. Low 39. High 59, cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers morning. Low 44. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 58.

8:26PM

Here’s a guarantee. There is a 100% chance of weather during the next 7 days. And this weather will be quite typical of this time of year. What, no dramatic headlines? They may have to resort to coming up with reasons why the weather is not so unusual. Sarcasm aside, a variety of weather but not too extreme during the coming days. Here’s a break-down:

High pressure northwest to north of the region extends into New England with dry and cool to mild weather Thursday. A low pressure area moves southwest to northeast across the northeastern US, passing north of New England late Friday and early Saturday. This will bring a period of wet weather Friday night and early Saturday, followed by improving weather later Saturday. High pressure moves in on Sunday which looks great. A similar cycle repeats Monday and Tuesday next week which will be similar to Friday and Saturday this week. By the middle of next week, a shot of chilly air is expected, and it may be lead in by a late-season bout of wintry precipitation. But being 6+ days away, it’s automatically low confidence from a forecasting standpoint.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s, coolest east-facing coastal areas. Wind light variable then N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds  southwest to northeast. Lows in the 30s. Wind light NE to E.

FRIDAY: Thickening overcast southwest to northeast. Rain possible south and west of Boston by the end of the afternoon. Highs middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coastal areas. Wind light E to SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain or rain showers AM. Clearing west to east PM. Low 40. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Low 35. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain / PM rain showers. Low 40. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix possible AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 30. High 44.

4:31PM

It’s April. No fooling. Ok I had to. Now on to the weather. It will be fairly typical of early  April during the coming days. The pattern is still a bit on the cooler side of normal and I don’t see big changes in that for the time being. We will have to keep an eye on the weather next week because we won’t be that far away from getting a threat or 2 of a precipitation event that involves mix/snow. But for now, before getting too far ahead of ourselves, we’ll focus on the upcoming several days. There will be a mix of fair and unsettled weather as we’ll be near the jet stream with passing systems. I don’t see anything getting hung up in the region, which is often the case in Spring. Things should be moving along, so we’ll see some variability. The most “significant” system is likely to impact the region Friday night through early Sunday, clouds moving in Friday, wet weather Friday night and Saturday, and a windy sun/cloud mix Sunday as it departs. Prior to that, a weak system will produce some clouds only on Wednesday but more sun should return Thursday as a high pressure area to the northwest and north extends down into the region. We’ll worry about next week later. Ok? Great!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s most areas, some  upper 20s inland valleys. Wind light NW then variable to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A few mostly cloudy periods possible. Highs around 50. Wind starts calm then light SE by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind light SE to variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Low 30. High 50 except 40s coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Low 40. High 53, cooler S coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 30. High 50.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 54.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 38. High 48.

9:26PM

Monday is the last day of March and also the last day of a 2 1/2 day stretch of nasty weather, courtesy a slow-moving low pressure area that has crawled up the East Coast along a frontal boundary over the weekend. It will slowly wander out to sea later Monday and Monday night, but as it starts its departure, enough cold air working around its back side will cause some mixed showers (rain/sleet/snow). Only minor brief accumulations of sleet/snow may occur where showers concentrate for a while, mainly inland and higher elevations, during the day on Monday. It won’t be cold enough at the surface to allow anything that falls to stay on the ground. And anything that does sit for a while would do so on unpaved surfaces.

A nice break comes on Tuesday as we get some sunshine and a little milder air due to a narrow area of high pressure extending down across the region. But with the tendency for high pressure to be centered to the north of the region and a frontal boundary still hanging around to the south and east, it seems that clouds will try to make a comeback by Wednesday, and we may see the winds turn more north or east, tempering any warm-up. As most Spring forecasts are, this one is a little iffy as we move through the week. I’m feeling a little more optimistic about Thursday, not because we get a warm push from the south, but because the high to the north is a bit stronger and pushes things back to the south. So based on that idea I’ll go optimistically for some sun but below normal temperatures. This may hold into Friday, an important day for Red Sox fans as it is the home opener (2PM). By later Friday, clouds should be advancing ahead of a northeastward push of low pressure which is likely destined to make the next weekend unsettled (wet and cool Saturday, breezy and cool but drying out Sunday). Again, this is somewhat low confidence. There will be plenty of fine tuning to come.

For now, here’s the best guess for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle. Some rain may be heavy. Lows 35-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain showers except some sleet/snow at times especially inland and north/northwest of Boston where brief minor accumulation may occur. Temperatures steady 35-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers early, followed by partial clearing. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 55 except cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 50 except cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Low 35. High 50 except cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 40. High 45.

SUNDAY: Breaking clouds, windy. Low 35. High 45.

Hi all!

You probably noticed we were offline for about 24 hours. This was due to a hardware problem in the main file server that runs this and other blog sites. It took many hours of hard work to identify the bad piece of hardware and then to get a replacement for it. It is finally done!

The most recent blog entry is at least temporarily lost due to a back-up issue (they had to use a back up more than 12 hours old as of the time of the crash). This message is just to update you that we’re back up and running and that, as long as we remain online, The Week Ahead post will be appearing in the next hour or so.

Thanks for reading and thanks for your patience!

7:33AM

It’s a new pattern, and in some ways the same old result for people’s feeling about the weather. They won’t like it. But it is a matter of opinion. Some of us, me included, won’t mind this. There won’t be much sun in the next week, and other than a couple mild days (today and well, maybe early tomorrow, and well….maybe sometime the middle of next week) it’s going to be a chilly pattern. Some significant rain is also on the way.

Today, a mild air mass moves in, but the price will be an increasing south to southwest wind which will get quite strong at times this afternoon and evening, along with a chance of rain showers ahead of a cold front. That front will settle through the region tonight and then stop just to the southeast of the region Saturday. Low pressure will form and ride up the front, bringing rain to southeastern New England Saturday afternoon through Sunday. By later Sunday and Sunday evening, enough cold air may work down from above to cause a mix with or change to sleet and snow in parts of southern NH and northern MA. This is always a tricky forecast at this time of year, so it is something to watch. By Monday, the low pressure area should be off the coast but wandering away slowly, so it will likely start cold and damp but may end brighter. Toward the middle of next week, with a tendency for high pressure to be in eastern Canada, a front to be south of the region, and low pressure waves also along that front, the tendency will likely be for not much sun and not a lot of warm air around. Not sure how it works out day to day so just a generally worded and low confidence forecast will follow at the end.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs climb to the 50s but holding upper 40s south-facing shores and some interior valleys. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, possibly stronger near the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers before midnight. Lows 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to W and diminishing late.

SATURDAY: Partial sun possible early, then cloudy. Rain developing from south to north. Highs 45-50. Wind light W shifting to N in the morning, NE 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times. Lows around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times. A rain/sleet/snow mix possible southern NH and parts of northern MA afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle especially southeastern areas morning. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s, may break 50 in some areas.

7:23AM

The bombing-out storm that sideswiped southern New England with big wind and some Cape Cod and southeastern MA snow is now gone, and in settles a more typical Spring pattern. Spring! Yay! Right? Not so fast. You  may have wished for Spring, but the collective annual “forgot this is what spring in New England is like” syndrome suffered by the collective population is about to be cured by the reality of nature. Ah, nothing like a dose of natural medicine to shock you back into sense right? Here are a few things to keep in mind. The air aloft in the Spring can be pretty cold, moreso than in the Autumn. The water of the Atlantic is just weeks beyond its coldest of the season. The pattern of 2 years ago (70s and 80s most of March) was a major anomaly. Now, onto the unsettled forecast.

There is only 1 day of the next 7 that present an opportunity for fair weather start to finish. That day is today. After that a cold front, low pressure area, and stubbornly slow upper level flow will combine to keep southeastern New England on the cloudier, cooler, wetter side for many of the days following.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny but clouds increasing later in the day. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s except upper 40s south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain except sleet/snow mix possible inland. Temperatures in the 30s.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 30.  High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 38. High 46.

7:28AM

It’s mostly about the wind out of this one, except on Cape Cod, where it is about wind, snow, and coastal flooding. As mentioned in previous blogs, most of the snow falls on the Cape today, with a sharp cutoff just to the west meaning only dustings to 1 inch on the MA East Coast building up to around 6 inches or a little more on the Cape, which will be blowing around and hard to measure, with blizzard conditions for a while down there. Elsewhere, the snow tries to edge into eastern MA and coastal NH then moves back to the east out to sea.  The wind today will still be the biggest story for all of southeastern New England as the beast of a storm winds up and goes far enough east to spare most of the region the snow, but not the wind. Gusts of around 40 MPH will be common inland and 50-60 MPH will be common near the coast, with gusts over 60 MPH over Cape Cod. Some damage is possible especially on the Cape. Coastal flooding is most likely this morning during high tide on north-facing shores.

Storm pulls away tonight, high pressure builds in for a nicer Thursday, cool for the season but feeling mild due to less wind and more sun. Warmer southerly wind Friday as a cold front approaches but with rain showers becoming more likely during the day.

Weekend does indeed look cooler and unsettled as low pressure forms on the front as it settles to the south and doesn’t move too much after that. Rain returns Saturday and may linger into Sunday. Still some hope for clearing late Sunday but we’ll see how that works out as we get into a Spring pattern that looks a little more unsettled than fair. Do expect some dry weather to work into the region by early next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow of around 6 inches with blizzard conditions at times Cape Cod, up to a few inches of snow southeastern MA, and 1 inch or less near the eastern MA and NH coasts. A few flakes may penetrate slightly inland this morning otherwise all snow ends west to east midday and early afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH inland with gusts frequently around 40 MPH, 25-35 MPH with gusts 50 MPH or more near the coast, and around 60 MPH top gusts Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Clearing west to east. Lows 15-20 except 20-25  South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind NW slowly diminishing to 10-20 MPH but still gusty for a while.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 40.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

7:24AM

Short update this morning due to time constraints on my agenda today. Apologies!

High pressure holds for cold and dry weather today but clouds do start to show up from the developing storm to the south as described in the previous blog post. There is not a whole lot of change to the outlook. This beast of a storm will pass too far to the east of southeastern New England for a full major impact, but Cape Cod, sticking out into the ocean and closer to the storm, will have the most impact in terms of snow and especially wind. The time frame is generally during the day Wednesday for the wind and the first half to 2/3 of Wednesday for the snow. Again, a subtle shift one way or another makes a big difference, so watch for updates. Also, still expecting some coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday, especially north-facing shores.

Fair weather returns Thursday, not as cold. Much milder Friday but with clouds and an eventual shower risk due to an approaching cold front. This front hangs up in the region for cooler weather and unsettled weather for at least part of the coming weekend before fair weather returns for the start of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing late, heaviest Cape Cod and southeastern MA, may barely reach the distant NW suburbs of Boston and interior southern NH by morning. Lows around 20. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, possibly heavy for a time near the coasts of NH and MA and especially Cape Cod and Nantucket, and light to moderate elsewhere, tapering off west to east midday and afternoon. Snowfall estimate: Coating to 1 inch far northwestern suburbs of  Boston and interior southern NH, 1-3 inches east central and northeastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH, 2-4 inchest Cape Ann and North Shore MA, 3-6 most of  southeastern MA, and 6-12 inches Cape Cod and Islands. Will change with any shifts in storm track! Highs around 30. Wind N 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH coastal areas especially Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY:  Clearing. Low 35. High 50.

2:57AM

Once upon a time, indications of a significant storm appeared on computer generated forecast maps as they chugged through programs created in an attempt to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere over a period of time, given a set of initial conditions at the surface and multiple levels above the ground. Though these prognostications are never perfect, they are often accurate enough to provide adequate notice of impending significant occurrences. Such is the case with the upcoming storm threat, which now looms so much closer than when it appeared as a distant star in the night sky of meteorology. The storm threat has become an asteroid hurtling toward our tiny little place in the universe. Will it crash into us with major impact, will it sideswipe the region with a scary close pass, or will it pass harmlessly as just an awesome sight just too far away to do anything?

This is what we do know: High pressure will build across the region today after having delivered yet another late season blast of Arctic air – a bright and cold start to the week. Two disturbances, a weak one drifting eastward from the Great Lakes region, and a slightly stronger one off the US Southeast Coast, will merge and intensify into a monster ocean storm off the US Mid Atlantic and Northeast Coast Tuesday through early Wednesday, tracking northeast to north. Eventually this storm will plow into the eastern Maritime Provinces of Canada, but before it does that, it will have some impact on southeastern New England.

The uncertainty arises out of the fact that a subtle shift in storm track one way or another will have significant influence on the details of the envelope of snowfall, the intensity of it in a given location, and of course, the snowfall amounts. A first call on snow amounts will appear below, based on where I expect the most likely path to be, which is a little east of where the tracks of heaviest snow-producers are. Strong northerly winds around the western side of the intensifying low may result in some damage with the most vulnerable place being Cape Cod in the early to middle hours of Wednesday morning. It is very important to remember that a slight shift of storm track will significant impact the snow amounts (eastward shift, amounts go down / westward shift, amounts go up). Coastal flooding especially near high tide time Wednesday morning is most likely along north-facing shores especially Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket.

The reasoning for going with a track a little further east is due to a lack of blocking in the steering currents that would help slow the storm down and push it a little closer to the coast. But the explosive development and size of the storm will still allow for a significant impact especially near the coast and especially far southeastern MA and Cape Cod.

Once this progressive system is by the region, rapid improvement in the weather will be seen by Thursday as high pressure builds in. By Friday, this high will already be moving offshore with a milder southerly wind developing. An approaching cold front from the west may send showers into the region as early as Friday afternoon. There are some questions regarding the speed and timing of this front and the potential for an extra wave of low pressure that may develop and move along it, keeping unsettled weather going into Saturday, which will likely turn out cooler than some current extended forecasts indicate. By Sunday, a chilly high pressure area will be in place, though it does not look as cold as it will be to start this week out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Early temperatures around 10 recovering to highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of light snow especially south and west of Boston by late in the day. Highs around 30. Wind light E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely. Lows around 20. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, possibly heavy for a time near the coasts of NH and MA and especially Cape Cod and Nantucket, and light to moderate elsewhere, tapering off west to east midday and afternoon. Early snowfall estimate: 1-3 inches east central MA, RI, and interior southern NH, 3-6 inches coastal NH, and most of east coastal MA, through southeastern MA, and 6-12 inches Cape Cod and Islands. Will change with any shifts in storm track! Highs around 30. Wind N 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH coastal areas especially Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 45.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

9:59AM

A cold front will sweep across the region from west to east today as low pressure passes north of the region. A line of rain showers will accompany this front as it cuts into briefly milder air over the region, replacing it with a new surge of cold that will be felt somewhat modestly at first tonight and Sunday, then more boldly Sunday night and Monday as a surge of true Arctic air arrives. Strong March sunshine Monday will make it feel a little less cold than it would have in the days of lower sun angle. The time frame of Tuesday night and Wednesday continues to be the focus point for a Winter storm (yes I know it’s Spring). There is pretty much no doubt that a monster storm will be forming off the East Coast. What is yet to be worked out is the details of the rate of intensification and the storm track, which will make all the difference in the world here regarding impact of snow and wind. So instead of outline the various scenarios (you’ve seen them a hundred times on TV anyway), just remain aware that a significant winter storm is possible during this time. I will get a little more detailed on tomorrow’s blog post about what I expect to happen. But as a heads up, it’s safe to prepare for plowable snow in most of southeastern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. After the storm threat, the end of next week looks milder.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers through mid afternoon from west to east. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow likely at night. Low 10. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow and wind likely. Low 20. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.