DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

The snow portion of our winter storm is about over – with the final flakes in northeastern portions of our region being replaced by sleet and freezing rain. Elsewhere, we have rain falling, and in many parts of the region, except near the coast, it’s falling as freezing rain. A gradual warming during the day will shrink this freezing rain area, but it may never warm enough to end it in some interior sections from Worcester County MA into southern NH. These areas will see up to 1/2 inch of ice accretion which can lead to tree damage and power outages. Cold air damming has most of the region in an inversion, keeping increasing winds later on above the ground, but coastal areas will lose this inversion sooner with east winds shifting more southerly, somewhat gusty in these areas, eventually to go to west by evening as the axis of low pressure shifts to the north. While our rainfall pattern becomes more spotty and takes on the characteristic of waves of showers, some heavy, these can bring stronger wind gusts down to the surface over the Cape and Islands. Elseswhere, besides the aforementioned icing issues, the snow that fell will be absorbing rainfall and will become more difficult to move. And unmoved, water-logged snow is set to become solid ice tonight and for several days as we get a blast of cold air behind the departing storm. I still think a little wrap-around frozen precipitation can occur at the tail end this evening, but this will not have a notable impact where it occurs (mainly southern NH). The big story will be the powerful wind gusts tonight through Monday, in the 45 to 60 MPH range. This leads to additional tree damage and power outages in some areas. The wind will ease only slightly Tuesday – a gusty day but less powerful, and both Monday and Tuesday will feature below normal temperatures with highs in the 20s, so this will preserve our newly formed ice block. 😉 … Wednesday will be another cold day, but more tranquil as high pressure replaces the northwest air flow of the previous two days. Then, attention turns to Thursday’s storm threat. The key for this event is the track of a low pressure area developing down the coast. This system takes on more of a “classic” look as it forms and moves seaward, and at this point I am still leaning more toward a side-swipe rather than a direct hit. Further elaboration on this system will begin with tomorrow’s update.

TODAY: Overcast. Precipitation continues – transition from freezing rain to non-freezing rain works from South Coast into the I-90 belt but takes longest in valleys, sleet to freezing rain in areas to the north with a lower chance of getting to non-freezing rain, resulting in additional sleet accumulation and ice accretion. Rain may taper to just drizzle / few showers southeastern MA and RI for a time during the afternoon hours. Highs 30-37 southern NH & interior MA, 38-45 eastern coastal MA & RI, 45-52 Cape Cod / Martha’s Vineyard / Nantucket. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH coastal areas, a few higher gusts, variable under 10 MPH inland areas, briefly becoming S 10-20 MPH Cape Cod region where stronger gusts are possible, and variable 5-15 MPH elsewhere before shifting to W from west to east end of the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with one more burst of widespread rain showers except potential icing interior elevated valley locations early evening and potential sleet/snow showers late evening, favoring north central MA and southern NH. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 10-17. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow possible, favoring eastern and southern areas. Highs 21-28. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

A little quieter this period with one minor system bringing potential snow showers mid period, otherwise dry weather and below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

February 26-27 and March 1-2 are current watch periods for potential winter storm impacts. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

A winter storm will impact the region for the vast majority of this 3-day weekend in a variety of ways. There are a lot of parts and interactions here so I’ll break this down the best way I can for you to understand my expectations. First, we have high pressure across a good portion of central and eastern Canada, with an extension down across New England to start today. The main center of this high will remain in central Canada, with a weaker extension to the east. This limits the influence it can have on our upcoming system, but it will be strong enough to hold cold air in at the surface, away from the immediate coast, which will be a significant player. The weaker southward extension of the high allowed it to get quite cold overnight (generally 10s to lower 20s for low temps), and this high also allows us to start the day with filtered sunshine. But as low pressure makes a trek out of the Ohio Valley / eastern Midwest toward the interior Northeast, and a warm front extends ahead of it, to our south, we’ll have an increasing and thickening of the overcast as the day goes on. From the end of the afternoon through early evening, a snow shield will spread from west to east across the region. It will at first bit a little patchy, having to overcome dry air, but this process will actually chill the atmosphere a bit more, assuring several hours of accumulating snow across the region before the next phase of the storm begins. That phase will be a mid level jet stream bringing in warmer air aloft, where the precipitation develops. As this takes place, a change over from snow to sleet / freezing rain / rain will occur from south to north, starting at the South Coast in the overnight hours, and progressing northward. The atmospheric temperature profile determines sleet vs. freezing rain vs. liquid rain, and the overall outlook of how this goes hasn’t really changed from yesterday’s outlook. I do think we’ll see a ribbon of sleet for most areas initially, but this will likely be for a limited time as the warming aloft is substantial enough to erode the cold air low enough to prevent full freezing of rain drops after a short period of time. The key then becomes the surface temperature as the rain area expands. Across the South Coast, Cape Cod, and up along the coast of the MA South Shore, I expect the surface temperature to rise above freezing to prevent a freezing rain situation. This should also happen up the coast from Boston to the MA North Shore, but may be delayed for a while, so that a period of freezing rain can occur here. As soon as you go inland, and especially progress further inland, the freezing rain will be more prevalent, and may continue for most of the event. There are areas that may never get above freezing – these favoring the elevated valleys of northern Worcester County, maybe western and northern Middlesex County of MA, and interior southern NH. The warm front associated with the primary surface low, which by the early hours of Sunday will be entering NY State, will be the focus for a secondary low pressure area, developing in the vicinity of the South Coast of New England. As this takes place, the only place that likely gets into the warm sector of the system will be Cape Cod and the Islands. The colder air will never have been eroded efficiently enough elsewhere to allow that boundary to progress to the north, and once the secondary low forms, and moves east northeast, it will drag that boundary back to the southeast anyway. The structure of the storm associated with the primary low will remain fairly intact, however, even as the low itself decays. This may send a dry slot into southeastern MA and RI, limiting some precipitation during the plain rain portion of the storm. But one last burst of moderate to heavy rain will cross the region later Sunday as the occluded / cold front passes. This burst should be in liquid form for the majority of the region, but in those valley areas to the northwest there is still the potential for this to be in the form of freezing rain, which would add enough ice accretion for tree damage, if it should occur this way. Will watch for that. A little wrap-around moisture can send some sleet and snow showers back across the region as the cold air returns quickly behind the departing storm, as the new low takes over in the Gulf of Maine and starts to intensify rapidly. I don’t think much in the way of sleet/snow accumulation will occur with this parting shot, but a quick coating can occur in some areas. And no, I did not forget to talk about the pre-change-over snow accumulation forecast. That remains basically unchanged from my previous discussion. The expectation is 1 to 3 inches across the South Coast, least on Nantucket / Outer Cape Cod – with much of this melting away on Sunday as this is the area most likely to enter the warm sector briefly. Elsewhere, expect a general 3 to 6 inch snowfall from the MA South Shore to interior RI and northward from there, with much of this becoming compacted by rain and temps in the 30s to lower 40s, or further inland compacted and acquiring a coating of ice where freezing rain occurs. Exception remains some 6 to 8 inch snowfall potential across interior southern NH and north central MA, particularly the higher elevations, where the snow will be less wet and last longest before any change-over, but sleet and freezing rain compaction will occur in these areas as well. Post-storm, we have a wind event to deal with on Monday. The low pressure area will become a powerhouse as it moves from the Gulf of Maine into Atlantic Canada, and its circulation, in contrast with central Canadian high pressure extending into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, will create strong northwesterly winds here, with gusts above 45 MPH likely in much of the region, including the potential for wind damage and scattered power outages. Areas with ice on the trees will be particularly vulnerable. This will come along with the return of a pretty cold air mass too. While the wind eases slightly Tuesday, it will continue to be quite gusty, making the already below normal temperatures feel even colder, though the weather will be dry. Wednesday will also be a cold, but more tranquil day, as high pressure dominates.

TODAY: Filtered to dimmed sun as high clouds thicken up in the morning. Lowering overcast afternoon – late day snow likely, especially west of I-95. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow evening into overnight with accumulation of 1 to 3 inches South Coast and 3 to 6 inches elsewhere except 6 to 8 inches in some locations of southern NH and north central MA. Snow to sleet to freezing rain / rain transition begins south to north late evening / overnight with icing conditions first away from the immediate South Coast up to the I-90 belt with higher probability to sleet to the north. Temperature rising slightly to 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH evening, staying that way over interior valleys and shifting to E 5-15 MPH elsewhere, especially coastal areas, overnight.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Precipitation continues – transition from freezing rain to non-freezing rain works from South Coast into the I-90 belt but takes longest in valleys, sleet to freezing rain in areas to the north with a lower chance of getting to non-freezing rain, resulting in additional sleet accumulation and ice accretion. Rain may taper to just drizzle / few showers southeastern MA and RI for a time during the afternoon hours. Highs 30-37 southern NH & interior MA, 38-45 eastern coastal MA & RI, 45-52 Cape Cod / Martha’s Vineyard / Nantucket. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH coastal areas, variable under 10 MPH inland areas, briefly becoming S 10-20 MPH Cape Cod region and variable 5-15 MPH elsewhere before shifting to W from west to east end of the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with one more burst of widespread rain showers except potential icing interior elevated valley locations early evening and potential sleet/snow showers late evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Watching a snowstorm potential in the February 20-21 time frame – leaning toward an offshore evolution and more of a side-swipe than a bigger hit, but the latter cannot be discounted as a potential. Fair weather returns after. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching the February 26-28 period for a potential winter storm impact. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Your Valentine’s Day weather will be mostly dry, but windy and on the cold side, as a healthy northwesterly air flow exists between eastern Canadian low pressure and an area of high pressure building our way from the Great Lakes and Midwest. The air flow is carrying some moisture from the Great Lakes region this way, and a little band of light snow showers can form and move across some areas as we go into midday and afternoon. High pressure builds closer and over the region tonight to shut down the wind, but make for a very cold night due to radiational cooling. Dry weather is good for anybody with evening plans that take them outside, but you will want to be aware that lingering icy patches can exist where they were not removed / treated / sublimated by dry air. And now the focus shifts to the weekend event. I haven’t changed my ideas too much on this, but attempting to refine the forecast a bit more here. One surge of moisture heads our way ahead of a warm front on Saturday, with a few to several inches of snow expected Saturday afternoon and night. Timing is such that we should get through most of the daylight hours of Saturday before the snow reaches the entire region, and it may even wait until nightfall to reach areas further south and east. The big key to the forecast is the track of low pressure and the movement, or lack of movement, of the warm front ahead of it. Model forecast often struggle with this, trying to warm it up too quickly, but cold air is hard to dislodge from near the ground, and while it warms aloft rather easily as a primary low pressure area takes a track into the New York State area, the cold air nearer the ground sets up a sleet / freezing rain situation. We’ll have to watch for this, and then track the surface temperature to see where it can get above freezing for just rain, and stays at and below freezing for an icing situation. If the layer of cold air is dense enough, instead of freezing rain, you see sleet. So that delicate temperature profile and resultant precipitation pattern is what to look at during the overnight Saturday night through Sunday portion of this drawn-out storm system. The potential is highest for snow going to a longer period of sleet away from the coast and well inland, a period of freezing rain in most other areas, but warming enough above freezing to occur non-freezing rain closer to the coast, especially the South Coast to Cape Cod. After all this, as low pressure redevelops nearby then moves offshore, enough cold air can come back for a flip to sleet / snow northwest to southeast, at least for a brief time, before it comes to an end. This would occur Sunday evening. Behind the storm system, its influence will still be with us Monday in the form of strong, gusty wind, and cold air, as dry weather returns. This windy and cold set-up lasts through Tuesday too as the storm becomes quite strong while moving through Atlantic Canada.

TODAY: A sunny start then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of passing snow flurries, favoring areas west and southwest of Boston. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts above 30 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

TONIGHT: A few passing clouds early, a clear interlude, then increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 5-12 except 12-19 South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming calm.

SATURDAY: Filtered to dimmed sun as high clouds thicken up in the morning. Lowering overcast afternoon – late day snow likely, especially west of I-95. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow evening into overnight with accumulation of 1 to 3 inches south of I-90 and 3 to 6 inches elsewhere except 6 to 8 inches in some locations of southern NH and north central MA. Snow to sleet to freezing rain / rain transition begins south to north late evening / overnight with icing conditions first away from the immediate South Coast up to the I-90 belt with higher probability to sleet to the north. Temperature rising slightly to 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH evening, staying that way over interior valleys and shifting to E 5-15 MPH elsewhere, especially coastal areas, overnight.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Precipitation continues – transition from freezing rain to non-freezing rain works from South Coast into the I-90 belt but takes longest in valleys, sleet to freezing rain in areas to the north with a lower chance of getting to non-freezing rain, resulting in additional sleet accumulation and ice accretion. Highs 28-35 north of I-90, 35-42 I-90 south. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, except interior valleys and portions of northern MA and southern NH see calmer conditions or a N drift.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with rain/ice likely turning to snow with a possible small accumulation before ending. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30+ MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Watching a snowstorm potential in the February 20-21 time frame – leaning toward an offshore evolution and more of a side-swipe than a bigger hit, but the latter cannot be discounted as a potential this far in advance. Generally dry weather just before this threat and returning again after. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Watching the February 26-28 period for a potential winter storm impact. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

A light snowfall occurred over much of the region overnight, and a snow-to-rain changeover has made its way across most of the region from south to north during pre-dawn, located at the time of this writing in the Merrimack Valley so that areas to the north are still snowing. Some of the areas raining are just below freezing in sections of interior MA, with pockets of icing. Overall, the trend to plain rain continues through mid morning, but as our wind shifts from a light easterly to an increasing westerly as the axis of elongated low pressure moves north of our region, we’ll start a dry-out process, albeit a slow one, during the midday and afternoon hours today. While it clears out tonight, the temperature drops significantly, and any still-wet, untreated surfaces will become icy. Fair weather will dominate on Friday but along with cold air and windy conditions as high pressure builds our way via the Great Lakes / Midwest and low pressure deepens in eastern Canada. High pressure then moves overhead Friday night, which will be quite cold, then drifts away Saturday as the next low pressure system approaches. This complex system is going to impact our weather all 3 days of the Presidents Day Weekend. Saturday, it brings an initial batch of snow into the region during the afternoon and evening that deposits up to a few inches. A brief lull occurs after this, before a second and main surge of precipitation arrives Sunday morning, lasting into Sunday evening. This area of precipitation will be crossing the region as it warms aloft but cold air is stubborn to give way at the surface, resulting in a precipitation variety depending on timing and location – sleet, freezing rain, and rain – the details of which still need to be fine-tuned. Greatest icing potential will be away from the immediate coast. We can see a switch back to snow at least for part of the region depending on how fast colder air comes back in as the system begins its departure during Sunday evening. Behind it, an immediate freeze-up of any wet/untreated surfaces will take place Sunday night. On Monday, the departing low will still be battering out region with wind and cold, and while it’s mainly dry I can’t rule out a few passing snow flurries.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with snow to rain/ice southern NH, rain elsewhere, tapering to drizzle, then ending. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, variable, then W 5-15 MPH later.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 7-14. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Clouding over quickly. Snow likely in the afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow continuing, may mix with or turn to sleet / rain South Coast before tapering off overnight. Snow accumulation generally 1 to 3 inches. Temperatures steady 22-29 evening, rising to 28-35 overnight, mildest South Coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH, shifting to E 5-15 MPH along the South Coast.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Precipitation returns as sleet / ice / rain (plain rain most likely South Coast / Cape Cod with a combo of freezing / frozen inland, possibly transitioning to a plain rain with time for a portion of the region. Highs 30-37, coldest interior valley areas north and west of Boston. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast, but still N under 10 MPH some interior valley locations.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with rain/ice likely turning to snow with a possible small accumulation before ending. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30+ MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Windy, cold, dry February 18. Less wind, cold, dry February 19. Watching a potential storm impact February 20 to early February 21 with a snow chance. Fair weather again end of period, with continued below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

At least one, possibly 2 more storm threats during this period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Winter rolls on and we will be dealing with a couple more low pressure systems producing unsettled weather during the next several days. After one grazed our South Coast with a light snowfall last night, partial clearing occurred overnight, but clouds quickly come back in today ahead of the next low. These clouds are mainly high to mid level, but some lower clouds drifting in off the ocean may proda few snow flurries mainly I-95 eastwars. The upcoming low’s track will be a southwest-to-northeast course as opposed to the straight west-to-east grazer just before it. This drags warmer air in aloft, and somewhat at the surface too, so we’re looking at a snow (mix south) to rain event tonight into Thursday. The snow at the front end will accumulate but only a coating to an inch, with a few 1 to 3 inch amounts possible once you get to the Merrimack Valley north and west from there. As the system departs Thursday evening, a drop in temperature will quickly create ice on any untreated / still wet surfaces, so be aware of that! Friday, Valentine’s Day, will be fair, windy, and cold, and sets the stage for the next winter event. This is a complex low pressure system coming at us via the Midwest, and comes in two stages. The first is a push of snow Saturday afternoon and evening from an initial wave of low pressure, and a second stronger low will make a run at us on Sunday. While this low wants to track right across New England, likely north of the WHW forecast area, a lot of cold air will be trapped near the ground, especially away from the immediate coast, so while we see a snow to sleet to rain set-up, the rain will likely be of the freezing variety over these colder inland locations where it remains at or below freezing. The next update will detail this a little more. Colder air is ready to move back in aloft too as the low starts to pull to the northeast, and many of the areas that changed from snow to sleet/ice/rain can change back to snow later Sunday before it all comes to an end.

TODAY: Clouding up. A few snow flurries I-95 belt eastward. Highs 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening, possibly already mixed with rain South Coast. Snow then changes to sleet and rain overnight, with a period of freezing rain possible over some inland locations. Temperatures rise to 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with rain tapering to drizzle then ending. Breaking clouds later in the day. Areas of fog morning and midday. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, variable, then W 5-15 MPH later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 7-14. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Clouding over quickly. Snow likely in the afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/ice/rain returns. Temperatures slowly rise to 28-35. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Sleet/ice/rain, changing back to snow northwest to southeast by late-day. Highs 30-37, but slowly falling temperatures later. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Storm threat around February 20, otherwise fair and cold weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

At least one, possibly 2 more storm threats during this period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A cold high pressure area deflects approaching low pressure south of our region from late today through early Wednesday, with an area of snow only skirting the South Coast. High pressure loses grip enough so the next low to impact the region Wednesday night into Thursday is a direct hit, but with more ability to warm aloft, and somewhat at the surface, a snow to mix / rain event is likely. The bulk of the precipitation may move through before the change is complete, or can last long, before dry air cuts it off. Fair weather then follows for Friday as an area of high pressure builds in. Clouds return Saturday ahead of the next approaching storm system, which brings in a chance of snow by Saturday night. Even at “day 5”, guidance varies quite a bit in simulated outcomes with this system’s arrival and evolution, so this forecast day has a greater than typical chance of varying / changing compared to a typical day 5, including a scenario where arrival is much sooner, but for now leaning toward the later (nighttime) arrival.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, mainly South Coast region, accumulating a dusting to 1/2 inch. Lows 17-24. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives, accumulates up to a few inches, then changes to sleet / ice / rain. Lows 18-25 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain ending by midday. Patchy fog. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 7-14. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Weekend storm system into Sunday (Feb 16) with a snow/mix/rain probability. Precip type and distribution is TBD – current leaning is for a colder more frozen precip type system than most of the guidance shows. Fair weather follows for mid period. Next storm threat is late period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

The beginning of the period can be unsettled with a winter storm potential, followed by a trend to mostly fair but cold weather.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

An area of high pressure brings us a break in the action today with fair weather. The next low pressure system in our active pattern will be one that passes south of the region Tuesday night, bringing a light snowfall to the South Coast while the rest of the region stays dry. Another low pressure area heads into the Northeast later Wednesday through Thursday, but this one will have a more direct impact on our region as a primary low heads into the Great Lakes and a secondary low forms close to or over our area. This system looks somewhat similar to the one we had last Thursday – starting as snow and going to sleet and rain before ending later Thursday. There are still a few uncertainties and details to work out with that one. High pressure builds in behind it with another fair weather day Friday.

TODAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Areas of black ice through mid morning. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of black ice re-form. Lows 5-12. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, mainly from the I-90 region southward, accumulating a dusting to 1 inch. Lows 17-24. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun. Highs 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives, accumulates up to a few inches, then changes to sleet / ice / rain (details TBD). Lows 18-25 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain ending by midday. Patchy fog. Highs 35-42. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Next storm threat comes later February 15 through February 16 with a variety of precipitation – details TBD. Fair weather returns mid to late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active one or two potential precipitation events.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Three storms impact the region during this 5-day forecast period. The first is the ongoing one, which is in its late stages as low pressure begins to pull away. A trough extending from it passing through the region this morning deposits another coating to 2 inches of snow atop what fell so far, bring the region into the lower to mid portion of the forecast ranges posted yesterday. Drier air arrives later today and tonight, lasting through Monday, as high pressure builds in with fair weather returning. The next storm to deal with is low pressure passing south of our area late Tuesday to early Wednesday. The main bulk of this one is going to stay south, and its northern fringe will impact at least the southern portion of our region with a light snowfall. After a brief pause, a more potent low pressure area will move our way via the Midwest, and this one will make more of a direct hit on the region Thursday. Currently, at day 5, this system looks similar in some ways to last Thursday, quick-moving, cold air in place for a snowy start, and maybe a variety of precipitation occurring before it moves out of the region. Obviously, those details need some time to be worked out, but you know this will take place over the next several blog posts.

TODAY: Cloudy into midday with an additional period of snow northwest to east, accumulating under 1 inch western half of region, 1-2 inches eastern half, also some ocean-effect snow showers on a portion of the MA South Shore for a few hours can also add a little to the accumulation in that area. Breaking clouds / partial sun mid to late afternoon. Highs 26-33. Wind NE shifting to NW increasing to 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts by day’s end.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 7-14. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, mainly from the I-90 region southward. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow South Coast region early. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow arrives, then may transition to mix/rain before ending. Temperatures range 25-35 regionwide. Wind NE to variable 5-15 MPH, possibly stronger.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Fair weather February 14 with an area of high pressure moving in briefly. Next storm threat comes later February 15 through February 16 with probable snow/mix, before fair weather returns again later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active one or two potential precipitation events.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

The next storm system in a series is on the way for tonight into Sunday. This one is a quick-moving low pressure area with a solid area of precipitation and cold enough air for mainly snow across the region. A dry slot at mid levels of the atmosphere will lighten up the precipitation in the South Coast region, where some sleet to even freezing drizzle can occur for a few hours mid storm, after which the snow area will move back in for the last several hours of it. To the north, a steadier snowfall will occur for the storm’s duration, with one band of heavier snow possible for a few hours as well. It all tapers off and ends from west to east as low pressure starts to pull away midday Sunday, leaving us with partial clearing / breaks of sun later Sunday. High pressure brings fair weather to the region during Monday. The next low pressure system to watch threatens more snow late Tuesday and early Wednesday, but the trend on this one has been south, so the greatest chance for what looks like a lighter snowfall is in the South Coast region, but this system’s track is not set in stone, so monitor for changes.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east, may fall heavily for a while. Significant chance for a tapering of snow and a flip to sleet / drizzle South Coast region for a while overnight. Lows 20-27 except steady 27-34 South Coast (warmest Nantucket). Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, except a possible mix South Coast early before going back to snow. Storm snowfall accumulation a general 4 to 8 inches regionwide except 2 to 4 inches Cape Cod / Islands / immediate South Coast. Breaking clouds / partial sun later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Diminishing NW wind.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring the South Coast region. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow South Coast region early. Chance of snow all areas at night. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Storm impact February 13 with the potential for a variety of precipitation, depending on the track of the storm – to be fine-tuned over the next few days. A break February 14 with high pressure bringing fair weather. Next round of wintry weather arrives on the February 15-17 extended weekend, timing and details TBD. Overall temperatures near to below normal, but somewhat variable with passing storm systems.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active one or two potential precipitation events.

REVIEW / COMMENTARY

A quick review on yesterday’s event, forecast to be generally a 1 to 3 inch snowfall (less South Coast) with some sleet and ending as some rain / ice. Timeline was a little quicker with both the onset of snow and even more so with the advance of warming aloft, with the snowfall amounts generally 1/2 to 2 inches in the “main” area, an error of about 1/2 to 1 inch in any given location. This leads me to the commentary. Across the net, the criticism was over the top. It’s apparent to me that the majority of the population continues to focus on top numbers in ranges and also fail to remember that forecasts are predictions of the future. They also are failing to remember that predicting snowfall to the nearest inch is about the same as predicting rainfall to the nearest tenth of an inch, in general. These are things that obviously need to be spelled out in detail so that those who forget these basic facts so easily can be re-spoon-fed the information before they jump all over the forecasters for being “wrong” about something that likely had very little impact on their overall plans. And even if it did. Oh well, it’s a prediction, not a guarantee. And despite what many people might think, we’re still correct far more often than we’re not. Criticism is one thing, but uneducated / unfair criticism is another thing entirely, and I will defend my colleagues each and every time against anyone and everyone that I have to. 🙂 So now, before I get to my expectations / predictions for the coming five day period, I’ll start with this reminder. These are my best ideas for the upcoming weather, based on my interpretation of the information available at the time of this writing. My advice is to check back for updates, since it should go without saying that predictions for a time further away from t = zero (where ‘t’ is time from now and ‘zero’ = now) have generally more error the further away from ‘t=zero’ you get. This is pretty much easy logic, but often seems lost on many people. Not sure why.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

High pressure builds toward our region today, but the pressure difference between it and a low pressure area in eastern Canada will create a gusty breeze. The moving air and low dew point will help improve ground conditions (melting and/or drying snow / ice from the recent event). High pressure moves over the region tonight and early Saturday with fair, seasonably chilly, more tranquil weather as winds drop off. But in the active pattern we’re in, the next low pressure system heads our way as the weekend goes on. The next system takes a track further south than its predecessor, but is also a slightly more potent system. The track to the south allows the cold air to stay locked in so that other than some potential mixing along the South Coast, the coming event Saturday night into Sunday will be generally a straight snow event. Despite the decent potential for a slug of moderate to heavy snow (intensity), the quick movement of the system will be a slight limiting factor for potential snowfall accumulation across the region, making it more likely a moderate snowfall, in general, for the region. A small southward jog in the track would result in lower amounts in southern NH and northern MA with more from the I-90 belt to the South Coast, while a slightly northward shift would introduce more mixing and lower snow amounts in the South Coast region with widespread significant snow accumulation elsewhere. This forecast plays the middle ground and leaves room for adjustment in either direction on the next update, if necessary. Beyond the weekend event, we get a break in the weather on Monday with an area of high pressure moving in. But as the pattern is active, the next low pressure impact threat comes at some point Tuesday, likely late-day and night – details TBD, but leaning toward a system tracking to the south some some snow for our region.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix trending to more sun. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, except a possible mix South Coast. Expected snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches for most of the region, with areas of under 5 inches possible in southern NH and far northern MA with any southerly track shift, as well as along the South Coast if any mixing occurs. Partial clearing mid to late afternoon with breaks of sun. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Diminishing NW wind.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Storm system impact potential early February 12, February 13, and later February 15 into February 16, based on current expected timing of systems. All of these have the potential to include frozen precipitation or a variety. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active with two potential precipitation events.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

A series of winter storms looms, and two of them will impact our region during this 5-day period. The first one is a daytime storm system impacting our region today as low pressure travels this way from the west southwest. As the low approaches, it’ll deliver a fairly short-lived but strong area of precipitation, which starts as snow from mid to late morning – southwest to northeast – then flips to sleet and eventually a brief period of rain and drizzle, which will be falling into sub-freezing air over some inland locations, creating a light glaze or newly fallen snow or any cleared / untreated surfaces. But the bulk of this event will be in the form of snow, with a minor to “low end” moderate accumulation common. Tonight, the system exits and we clear out, with a fair but windy day for Friday. The high temps Friday climb above freezing with some melting being able to take place. Meltwater will re-freeze Friday night, and while the weather remains fair through the daylight hours of Saturday, watch for icy spots from that re-frozen meltwater. While this is going on, high pressure that moves toward the region Friday, squeezing the air between it self and departing low pressure for the wind, will then move overhead at night with winds dropping off, then will push off to the northeast Saturday as the next storm system heads in this direction. We’ll see the clouds increase ahead of it during the day, and then its precipitation shield will impact the region Saturday night and Sunday morning. The track of this system looks a touch further south than the one that precedes it, and it will have more available moisture and last a little longer, so I’m looking for a widespread moderate snowfall. There may be some mix / change to sleet / ice / rain in southern portions of the region – especially near the South Coast, depending on how far north the low’s track is. This system departs later Sunday, replaced by fair weather and wind. The wind subsides and the fair weather dominates on Monday as an area of high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH, as well as I-90 belt to Boston and southern suburbs. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast with up to several inches of accumulation likely. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, possibly mixed with sleet/ice/rain in some areas before ending. (Total accumulation details on next update, but 4+ inches of snow is quite possible in much of the region.) Partial clearing late-day. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Next window of opportunity unsettled weather early to mid period – early call being 1 or 2 waves of low pressure moving south of the region with odds favoring snow over mix/rain. Fair weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Active pattern with two potential impacts from low pressure.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

We have 2 storm systems to deal with during the next 5 days, but today is not one of those storm days. Governed by high pressure, it will be sunny (though you’ll notice some increase in high, thin clouds), and with a polar air mass in place, it will be cold. Things change quickly tonight and Thursday as low pressure moves our way from the west southwest, thickening up the clouds tonight and leading to a “daytime” storm on Thursday. Snow moves in during the morning to midday, accumulates up to a few to several inches, but advancing warm air aloft will flip that snow to sleet then briefly rain (south) and freezing rain (north) before it tapers and ends quickly by around dusk. Clearing follows at night, and high pressure builds in with nice mid winter weather on Friday. Before you know it, we’ll be dealing with the next storm system, this weekend. Clouds advance Saturday, and a similar precipitation set-up seems in the cards for Saturday night and Sunday morning. This system may carry a bit more moisture and have a bit more cold air to work with for a little longer, so while the general idea on precipitation is similar, the amounts of snow that can fall may be a little greater than the system that precedes it. Those details are still TBD.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 17-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH, as well as I-90 belt to Boston and southern suburbs. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast with up to several inches of accumulation likely. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast morning with snow/sleet/ice/rain tapering off southwest to northeast. Partial clearing afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Next window of opportunity for a storm system comes February 11-13 and looks like a colder event with snow, favoring southern areas, but still a long way to go to refine the details on that. Fair weather to start and end the period. Temperatures run slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Active pattern with two potential impacts from low pressure.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

High pressure in the Great Lakes builds toward the region today but the air flow between it and low pressure over eastern Canada increases the northwesterly air flow, which will drive colder air in. This high moves over us tonight into Wednesday with dry, cold, weather and wind settling down. The high slides out of the way Wednesday night and a rapidly-moving low pressure area passes through from southwest to northeast on Thursday. The air is cold enough for this to begin as snow for the region, but warming aloft changes it to sleet and a period of rain before it exits later in the day or early evening. It’s moving quickly enough so that the change to rain may not even be complete before the precipitation exits – so areas to the north go more from snow to sleet (maybe a brief period of freezing rain if it warms enough aloft but stays cold at the surface) while areas to the south go through the transition from snow to sleet to rain a little more quickly. High pressure builds in for Friday and Friday night with fair, seasonably chilly weather, and the high hangs on for Saturday but slowly exits as clouds start coming into the region ahead of the next low pressure system, which we will hear from by Saturday night, based on current timing.

TODAY: Clouds exit the South Coast and Cape Cod areas early to mid morning, otherwise a sunny start elsewhere then a sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 17-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

February 9 storm system looks somewhat similar to this Thursday’s, but will fine-tune the details in coming updates. Next round of unsettled weather comes in the February 11-13 window – snow/mix likely and rain possible for part of the region, but a long way to go to fine-tune this one.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Another early to mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

We’ll be in an active weather pattern with lots to keep track of, so let’s do that! The latest low pressure area to impact the region dumped a solid coating to a few inches of snow on the region overnight, with the warm front extending from the low the reason. That front passes this morning and we end up with a relatively mild and fair day, but late day or evening a few rain showers are possible as the low’s cold front swings through from northwest to southeast. High pressure building into the Great Lakes and the aforementioned low in Atlantic Canada Tuesday means fair but breezy, colder weather for Tuesday. High pressure builds right over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with fair, more tranquil, but cold weather. The next low pressure comes our way via the Ohio Valley on Thursday, its track far enough north and west that we’ll have warming aloft after initially cold enough air for the system to start as snow. We’ll then be looking at a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain / liquid rain depending on location and details of the temperature profile. Highest probability of non-freezing rain are in coastal areas, with the icy stuff more likely the further inland and elevated you go. Those details will be sorted out in the next few updates. Regardless of those, the system departs and another high pressure area brings fair weather back to the region for Friday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A late-day rain shower possible central MA and southern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with passing rain showers possible in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37 (watch for black ice where temperatures are near to below freezing). Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 33-40 northern areas, 40-47 southern areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Potential to likely unsettled events late February 8 into February 9, again later in the period, as the pattern will be active. Frozen precipitation chances are high with these.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Another early to mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

It’s Groundhog Day … again … and before I start reciting more lines from the movie I’ll just tell you, in case you missed it, that Phil saw his shadow this morning down there in Punxsutawney PA, which means, according to legend, that there are six more weeks of winter to endure. Correct or not, I can look ahead and see a pretty active wintertime pattern ahead for us, but that means a lot of changes, some up and down temperatures, and an increase in unsettled weather after a fairly benign though often cold January. If you are venturing outside this morning, you’ll see your shadow in 99% of the region, as there are some ocean-effect clouds across Cape Cod and at times flirting with the MA South Shore. Even a few snowflakes can fall from these clouds early on today, but they will drift offshore and dissipate soon as high pressure builds over the region. Another thing you’ll have to watch out for if going outside this morning, in fact much of today, is icy non-treated surfaces. Your shadow will also start to fade as the day goes on, in response to increasing high cloudiness from west to east across the region. This comes in advance of a low pressure area that will pass to our north Monday. Its warm front will send a slug of snow through the region tonight, steadiest from the I-90 belt northward. To the south the precipitation pattern will be more patchy and even some rain can end up mixed in along the South Coast as warmer air moves into the region. We’ll be in this warm sector with a southerly air flow and lots of clouds Monday, before a cold front brings a potential rain shower and a definite wind shift Monday evening. During Tuesday, a gusty northwesterly breeze will usher in colder air but with fair weather, as the low exits via Atlantic Canada. High pressure sits over the region Wednesday with dry, cold weather, before low pressure moves our way from the southwest for Thursday bringing a variety of precipitation. The finer details of that system will be figured out over the next few days. Early leaning: Snow to ice to rain for the region in general, but a colder scenario cannot be ruled out.

TODAY: Sunny start / cloudy finish. Highs 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH Cape Cod early, otherwise variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, steadiest I-90 belt northward with 1/2 to 2 inches and spot 3 inches possible, less steady to the south with under 1/2 inch and also may mix with rain South Coast before ending pre-dawn. Lows 20-27 early, then rising to 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day rain shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Potential to likely unsettled events late February 8 into February 9, again late in the period, as the pattern will be active. Frozen precipitation chances are high with these.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Another mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.