DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

The tweaking process is always ongoing when updating a forecast, but there won’t be many tweaks made to the first 5 days covered on this blog today. We’re still looking at mainly dry, chilly weather with a gusty breeze today into the early part of the week but the exceptions are the potential for a few snow showers (rain or snow showers South Coast) reaching the region via the Great Lakes this afternoon / early evening, and maybe a quick passing snow shower early Tuesday favoring southern NH and northern MA with a disturbance passing quickly through the region. Moderation in temperature is still expected heading into midweek as high pressure which was to the west shifts more to our south, but another high to the north will send a frontal boundary quietly through the region later Wednesday or Thursday and shifts the air flow back to northerly, putting the brakes on any significantly milder push of air, but at least we don’t seem to be looking at anything in the way of a really cold Thanksgiving either – and it should remain dry despite increasing clouds as the next low pressure system will be approaching, but not quite here yet. So the idea is generally good weather is ours for being out and about leading up to the holiday…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few possible showers of rain/mix South Coast and graupel and/or snow elsewhere, mainly during the afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A quick passing snow shower possible favoring southern NH and northern MA. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially morning.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Despite continued guidance inconsistencies and disagreements I stick to the same idea today of a Black Friday (Nov 25) rain event and a drier weekend, not-too-chilly but breezy Saturday (Nov 26) and somewhat colder Sunday (Nov 27). Watching for a low pressure system with a mix/rain chance and brief moderation in temperature – based on expected track this far out – for Monday Nov 28 followed by a return to dry and seasonably chilly weather for Tuesday Nov 29. I realize this is a little detailed for a 6-10 day forecast and tweaks / changes are certainly possible. Use as a guide only for now.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

No big changes to the overall pattern outlook heading into early December with variable – near to slightly below normal – temperatures for the period. No solid indications of any major storms but with several disturbances in the pipeline, always have to watch for something to develop a bit more.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

As we head into the final weekend before Thanksgiving, again there are no big changes to make to the ongoing outlook for the coming few days which will feature chilly and mainly dry weather. The only real chance of any precipitation is a few showers of precipitation (mix, graupel, or snow) early Sunday and again a few snow showers in isolated areas in the afternoon as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in, and again a few snow flurries Tuesday as a weak disturbances goes quickly through the region. Otherwise it’s a general west to northwest wind flow from Canada for the duration with fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A pre-dawn snow shower possible. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few showers of rain (South Coast) and graupel/snow (elsewhere) early, and a chance of a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Current outlook is for rain-free but more clouds and seasonably cool for Thanksgiving on November 24 as high pressure shifts offshore, then a chance of a rain event as a stronger low pressure area travels west and northwest of our region on “Black Friday” November 25. Trend for the rest of this period is drying out Saturday November 26 but not too chilly yet, then colder for November 27, and still watching for a system to possibly bring mix/rain for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but not expecting any major storms in this time period.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Making a few minor tweaks but no major changes to the 5-day forecast, but the idea is generally the same – overall quiet (no big storms) and chilly. Some locations experienced graupel showers yesterday – always a little thrill to see precipitation that looks like tiny styrofoam balls bouncing around. None of that today though, just dry weather, sun and some clouds. A sunnier Saturday is in store, but a reinforcing cold front comes through Saturday night and early Sunday and may produce a quick snow shower in a few spots, otherwise we’re looking at dry weather through the weekend, colder on Sunday than Saturday, and additional dry, chilly weather as Canadian high pressure dominates early in the week.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A pre-dawn snow shower possible. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Thanksgiving is on November 24 and as we all know, the day before is where a lot of traveling takes place (that hasn’t already taken place), and the weather for both that day and most of the holiday look pretty decent. There are differences in model guidance ranging from “milder” to “reinforcing cold” coming in right there – and to be honest at this point I’m not sure, could go either way, but leaning toward a little bit of both, quick reinforcing shot of cold the day before, a cold start then moderating but some clouds arriving on the holiday itself. If you read the comments on this blog you’ve seen me talk about inconsistency in long range guidance making the forecast very difficult as far as using the guidance goes for the weekend “Black Friday” / Thanksgiving Weekend – whatever you like to call those days (haha). Right now I continue to lean toward an unsettled Friday (Nov 25) and a drier, chilly weekend, maybe a few snow showers here and there. Additional fine-tuning of this forecast is obviously needed…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but my overall idea is for the best shot of unsettled weather to be November 28 based pretty much entirely on what I think the medium range guidance is not “seeing” yet, and maybe a minor system to greet the new month on December 1 and/or 2.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The weather pattern over the next several days will be fairly dry and chilly, dominated by an air flow out of Canada. Two disturbances can create a passing rain or snow shower during this time, the first one today, the second one on Sunday. The coldest day of the next 5 should be Monday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Medium range guidance remains inconsistent with systems and not reliable. Pattern supports dry weather and a temperature moderation early this period, a period of unsettled weather possible from late Thanksgiving (Nov 24) into Black Friday (Nov 25), then a drier and seasonable end to the period. But this is not a high confidence forecast for later in that period, so watch for updates.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but my overall idea is for the best shot of unsettled weather to be late November 27 and November 28.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Our first little bout with “winter weather” has occurred with some snow at the start of our rainstorm last night. But with warm ground and brief duration this has not caused any real issues, even with up to nearly 2 inches falling in some of the higher elevations of interior portions of the WHW forecast area. Any remaining slushy snow on the ground from that will disappear today as we see the rain taper off and end, but the clouds hang on. Eventually the air will start to dry out as a northeasterly wind shifts to northwest. After this, the weather through the weekend will feature mostly dry conditions, a gusty breeze at times, and below normal temperatures. The only additional precipitation chances we have are a potential passing brief shower of rain or snow on Thursday as an upper disturbance passes, and a passing snow flurry possibility Sunday as a reinforcing cold front moves through.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain ending southwest to northeast by midday. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands shifting to NW during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Thanksgiving Week starts dry with below normal temperatures, followed by a temperature moderation and eventually some unsettled weather toward Thanksgiving afternoon or “Black Friday” – timing as well as details of that potential unsettled weather system can’t quite be determined yet.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

The final 5 days of November should feature near to below normal temperatures in general with some variability. While there is continued (but not unexpected) inconsistency in medium range guidance for these days, the idea I have right now is a few showers of one kind of precipitation or another at the very start of the period with the departure of the system I’m watching for just after Thanksgiving, and then around mid period the chance of additional precipitation (probably rain but too soon to say for sure) around the middle of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A frosty morning greeted early-risers today, not that we haven’t seen frost already in much of the area this autumn, but areas that had not seen it previously have now, and many areas that had not seen a hard freeze previously also now have, with only a few urban and immediate coastal exceptions left. Those areas will get there too before too long in this newly emerged weather pattern, which features below normal temperatures for a while – a well-forecast pattern by medium range guidance I might add. Today, we start bright, but end cloudy as high pressure over us now loosens its grip and gives way to approaching low pressure from the southwest. This low center will give us an unsettled Wednesday with precipitation arriving from southwest to northeast in the late evening hours as rain South Coast, snow in many areas near and north of I-90, and a mix area between. The quicker it comes in, the longer it can snow where that takes place. This may make some areas a little slick for the early part of Wednesday’s commute, but a quick transition to rain will be underway already. Equally if not more hazardous across the region will be wet leaves in areas they cover roads and walkways, as well as some possible flooding around clogged catch basins. Keep all of these potential hazards in mind if needing to travel early Wednesday. Later in the day the rainfall will taper off and clearing will commence but not until after dark. Thursday through Saturday will feature mainly dry, chilly weather with a northwesterly air flow. Upper level low pressure having to cross the region on Thursday, however, will bring with it a chance of a few passing light rain and snow showers (snow showers most likely interior hills).

TODAY: Sunny start / mostly cloudy finish. Highs 43-50. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arriving overnight as snow/sleet southern NH and northeastern through central MA with up to around 1 inch of snow/sleet in highest elevations southwestern NH / north central MA with rain South Coast and some mix between but no accumulation of snow beyond a brief coating on cold surfaces, then all areas rain by about dawn. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, ending in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands shifting to NW during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Dry weather and below normal temperatures to finish off the weekend into early next week, then moderating temperatures and mainly dry into midweek. May have a low pressure or frontal system approaching by Thanksgiving (Nov 24) but that’s day 10 and really too soon for any detail.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Unsettled weather potential to start the period, and again very late in the period, otherwise mainly dry with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

This next 5 days will feature generally below normal temperatures, but there will be one brief exception during the passage of the only storm system of the period, on Wednesday, when we’ll see a wider range across the region including a quick push of milder air for the South Coast region. First, high pressure centered to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada is the recipe for a gusty breeze today, which will ease tonight as the high center moves across the region. Tuesday, while we stay dry and chilly we start to cloud over in advance of low pressure, which will be passing by to our south on Wednesday, but close enough for a period of precipitation, generally a rain event, but during the first few hours cold enough for snow and sleet with minor accumulation on colder surfaces mainly outside of I-95 and north of I-90, favoring the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH – the first little bout of wintry weather for the season. Exit the storm system Wednesday evening, and return chilly and dry weather, although a passing rain or snow shower may visit a few locations during Thursday as an upper level disturbances moves across the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/sleet mainly central to northeastern MA and southern NH developing overnight with some light rain and possible mix elsewhere. Minor snow accumulation possible higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected for the November 19-20 weekend with a northwesterly air flow from Canada. Moderating temperatures early in the week along with a possible day of unsettled weather November 22 depending on the integrity of the next disturbance coming along. Dry and seasonably cool at period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Continued medium range guidance inconsistency out in this time range. No big changes to my overall ideas of looking for a potential unsettled weather threat in the November 24 (Thanksgiving) and 25 (Black Friday) time frame, and another one before the end of the period with variable temperatures. There will be a lot of refining and fine-tuning to come.

I haven’t been able to change the comment order for the tab version, so just keep using this for now…

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Our temperature step-down continues. The transition to a chilly pattern is ongoing and after we booted the tropical air and remnants of Nicole with a cold front yesterday, it stayed pretty mild behind that initial front while the dew points did drop. A follow-up disturbance and secondary front will cross the region today with some morning and midday rainfall, then another drying trend and even cooler air arriving as we end the day. By the time we see any appreciable clearing, the sun will be about ready to set anyway, so definitely not the brightest of November days today. As we start the new week we will be in a pattern of below normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure dominates, but during Tuesday, the clouds ahead of the next low pressure system will arrive. The next system will be a low pressure area moving northeastward off the Middle Atlantic Coast around Virginia late Tuesday night, which will then track northeastward, passing south and east of New England Wednesday. While this system will not be turning into a powerhouse low, it will be intensifying quickly enough to expand its precipitation shield across our region, making for a wet Wednesday. If precipitation arrives quickly enough in the early morning hours, it could be in the form of snow or at least rain mixed with snow, mainly over interior portions of southern New England. If that happens, the brief duration and relatively warm ground would prevent any accumulation of snow save for a possible brief coating on chilly surfaces (car tops, fallen leaves, etc.), but the system will be mainly a rain-producer. That moves out on Wednesday night, and a renewed shot of cold air arrives Thursday. At this time a little disturbance will be passing by above, and this can help spawn a few rain and snow showers during the day (snow showers most likely inland and higher elevation locations), but not a big deal from that. A gusty wind and chilly air will be more noticeable than any passing rain/snow shower.

TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain through midday. Partial sun later on, especially I-95 westward. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations especially higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period with dry weather for most of it, and then a temperature moderation and some unsettled weather by the end of the period from the next low pressure system moving into the Northeast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Guidance inconsistency on recent runs, but overall idea remains similar. While it will be difficult to time systems this far in advance, looking for a potential threat for unsettled weather sometime in the November 24-25 window and possibly again at the very end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal is the current expectation.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

A weekend of unsettled weather ushers in a new weather pattern. If you were up early today, you may have seen a glimpse or two of sunshine in eastern MA and RI with breaks in the clouds between last night’s rainfall and the final chapter of the remains of Nicole coming through this morning. The remnant low, combined with a cold front, associated with a large scale trough moving in from the west, will sweep across the region this morning with another round of showers and downpours, a few of which may result in damaging wind gusts, before it all exits by midday. As for the specifics regarding today’s rain, one swath of moderate to heavy showers sweeps from RI through southeastern MA up to about Boston now (before 9AM), and another swath to the west sweeps east northeastward covering most locations from the I-90 belt northward as we move through the morning, exiting via northeastern MA and the NH Seacoast late in the morning. The second half of the day will feature improvement with breaking clouds, increasing sun, a shifting wind, and drying air replacing the almost summer-like humidity we start the day with. Tonight is dry, and cooler, but the colder air holds off for a bit. Once upon a time I forecast a sunnier day for Sunday, in belief that a follow-up area of energy would ignite rainfall mainly offshore, but it’s going to happen further west, so the forecast for Sunday now shares some similarities with today’s in that we’ll have a wet weather threat in the morning to midday hours before improvement. Finally, the colder, dry air overtakes the region Sunday night and Monday. Tuesday, we’ll remain chilly and dry, but clouds will start to increase ahead of the next low pressure system which will be heading rapidly northeastward and is destined to pass not far south of here on Wednesday. This will be close enough to give us a period of rain, but this rain may start as the first snowflakes of the season for parts of the region, especially away from the coast, depending on how quickly it comes in. Just a reminder that winter, while not here yet, is on its way…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers likely during the morning, including a slight chance of thunder. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Highs 65-72 early, then cooling through 60s. Dew point 60+ morning, falling quickly afternoon. Wind S 5-15 mph with gusts 25-35 MPH, isolated stronger gusts possible, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: A few passing clouds evening, then more clouds overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty, becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period and right now it looks like any follow-up low pressure systems to the midweek one will stay to the south, keeping our weather generally dry, other than a rain or snow shower which may visit with any northern jet stream disturbances passing by.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Medium range timing speculation brings me to a forecast of briefly milder weather with a rain shower threat to start this period, a quick return to cool/dry weather behind it, then the possibility of another unsettled weather system about Thanksgiving (Nov 24) but very low confidence on this part of the forecast as guidance has not been consistent with that system’s existence. Dry weather would be favored either way for later in the period with near to below normal temperatures. With this being a huge travel time there will be a lot of scrutiny on the forecast so much refining will be needed as we get closer to it. You know how that goes by now…

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

First, a thank you to all Veterans who have served and continue to serve our country today! For those who have today off, this ends up as a 3-day weekend. We’ll have dry weather for Veterans Day parades and ceremonies, most of which take place this morning and midday, though clouds are already rapidly moving in ahead of the long-talk-about systems we are about to encounter. We’ll have a combo of the moisture and low pressure area that was Nicole coming from the south, while a broad trough of low pressure approaching from the west pushes a frontal boundary into and across the region by midday Saturday. We’re still looking at two main batches of rainfall, one this evening and one tomorrow morning, but there maybe a few rain showers around at other times as well. While the first area will be a pretty solid area, a lot of it may be far enough west that Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore miss out on the bulk of it. The second area may also be concentrated more north and west so that these same areas get a more brief period of wet weather than other areas do for the second main batch on Saturday. There will be the possibility of some damaging wind gusts with both batches of rain showers, especially in any heavier ones. The second area has the ability to produce rotating showers that can also lead to very brief, weak tornadoes, but this chance is rather remote, just not zero. By Saturday midday and afternoon all o f the unsettled weather will be pulling quickly offshore and we’ll see quite the nice afternoon. After a very mild and muggy overnight tonight and Saturday morning, it will dry out in the afternoon but remain fairly mild, as the cold air behind this system will be lagging the departure of the rain – so despite a gusty breeze it will turn out to be a rather nice afternoon. With the trough axis still to our west and another disturbance to come along, in addition to a secondary cold front that has to cross the region, after holding out I am going to add some rainfall to the Sunday morning and midday forecast. I do not expect this to end up as a rainy day, but somewhat like Saturday, the first part of the day will be unsettled, followed by improvement, but this time the colder air will come in, along with wind, and you will definitely notice. High pressure brings fair weather and below normal temperatures early in the coming week, with some passing fair weather clouds and a gusty breeze Monday, and less wind Tuesday, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to appear in the sky ahead of the next weather system we’ll have to watch…

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Clouding up. A rain shower possible this afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers and a slight chance of thunder, though rain showers may be only scattered Cape Cod. Areas of fog. Lows 59-66. Dew point rising to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, isolated gusts 35-55 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling through the 60s. Dew point 60+ morning, then falling. Wind S 5-15 mph with gusts 25-35 MPH, isolated stronger gusts possible, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A few passing clouds evening, then more clouds overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty, becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Below normal temperatures will be the rule throughout this time period. Low pressure from the southwest brings the chance of precipitation (possibly starting as snow for some areas but likely ending up as rain) during November 16, followed by the return to generally dry weather, but another system may approach by late in the period with a precipitation chance.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Overall similar pattern. While the below normal temperatures may relax a little we will see most of the time dry with a system somewhere around Thanksgiving (Nov 24) possible for some unsettled weather. Can’t really time these with a lot of confidence so far in advance so just the idea for now that we’ll have to watch for something around that time.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Where there was frost, there’s now dew. A little sign of the current warm-up was apparent early this morning when most areas that were frosted over yesterday at dawn where covered with the liquid version of it – dew – this morning, as temperatures were considerably milder than 24 hours prior. We’re already feeling that warmer air moving in on the back side of high pressure, in contrast to yesterday morning’s calm cold, we have a gentle southerly breeze already blowing as I write this just after sunrise. Basically we’ve a very nice November day ahead today with lots of sun and mild air – many areas into the 60s for high temps. But we do have some unsettled weather looming, although it’s not going to be with us for very long. As we’ve been watching for several days, Nicole has made its way to and into Florida, reaching minimal hurricane status before landfall. This system will turn to the north, weaken, and become absorbed by a frontal boundary and larger scale mid latitude trough moving toward the US East Coast, and that conglomeration will impact our weather Friday into Saturday, but for a limited time. We will see lots more clouds during the day Friday, but most of the wet weather is going to wait until dark to arrive, with an initial batch of widespread showers to cross the region during the evening hours, bringing in relatively very high humidity for this time of year – a tropical feel and no surprise since that air will have made a journey from the tropics. The cold front will then sweep across the region Saturday morning with another batch of showers / downpours, maybe even some thunder, before it all exits to the east and that day ends windy, drier, and much cooler than it began. This sets the stage for a much more typical November chill as we finish the weekend and start next week. Guidance has still toyed with the idea of a storm nearby on Sunday but I still feel that most of this activity will be offshore that day, so I continue to lean dry vs. wet, but breezy and chilly. With high pressure off to the west and north we’ll continue to have breezy and chilly weather with dry conditions Monday as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Watching for a potential low pressure system to impact the region with some precipitation (probably rain, can’t rule out inland mix/snow) in the November 16-18 window. Medium range guidance has gotten a little more divergent on the timing and details of that in their runs, so just a very general outlook for now, to refine as time goes along. The take-away is below normal temperatures with an unsettled weather threat somewhere during the period and at least the possibility some see the first flakes of the season. Don’t draw any solid conclusions based on this just yet…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

One more low pressure system should pass by during this period, probably mid period with brief warming but the overall pattern features near to below normal temperatures heading toward Thanksgiving.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

If you were up early and outside you felt the chill after a few hours of radiational cooling. Once the wind dropped off late last evening and high pressure built right over us, that clear and calm combo allowed the temps to drop off quickly. Urban centers, the coastline, and some areas at higher elevations were not quite as cold as others, especially inland lower elevations, as that is where you tend to see the maximum impact of radiational cooling. Much of interior MA, especially Worcester County, experienced a hard freeze with low temperatures of 24 to 27, while many other locations saw some frost where the temp met the dew point (or “frost point” in this case). But today is going to be a nice day with a decent temperature recovery under abundant sun, albeit now shining at a very low angle and setting well before 5 p.m. since we went back to EST. So goes November! But the nice weather will last through tomorrow too, with a bit more breeze but also a warmer afternoon as that breeze will be southwesterly on the back side of departing high pressure. Meanwhile, the Nicole watch goes on to the south, with the storm now fully tropical. It moves westward through the northern Bahamas today as a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane, then likely maintains this range of strength up until a shortly-after-midnight landfall on the eastern coast of Florida most likely between West Palm Beach and Port St. Lucie, after which it will move across the central portion of the peninsula from southeast to northwest, turn northward near the western coast of the northern peninsula portion of the state then cross the eastern panhandle. This will take place with the system as a gradually weakening tropical storm. After this a north northeast turn will take the system across Georgia and into then across the Carolinas Friday as it starts to lose its identity and become absorbed by a frontal boundary and trough of low pressure moving toward the US East Coast. For our area, this means that we see clouds moving in on Friday, Veterans Day, but with rain-free weather for parades and ceremonies during the day. It’s Friday night and the first half of Saturday that is our time window for the wet weather, in the form of fairly widespread showers and downpours (maybe some isolated to scattered thunderstorms). Some of these may produce gusty winds, and we’ll already have windy conditions ahead of the front anyway, but I’m not looking for any real issues with damaging wind. We will have to watch for leaf-clogged storm drains though, and general slippery ground where wet leaves cover it. Use caution if traveling by foot or vehicle Friday night into Saturday. The cold front sweeps through from west to east during the morning and midday hours of Saturday then pushes offshore, and the day ends vastly differently than it begins, with clearing, a a gusty shifting wind, and cooler/dry air moving in after a warm/humid start. Sunday’s weather will be far more typical of November, with a mix of sun and clouds, a gusty breeze, and the chill of later autumn. With the axis of upper level troughing still just to our west, we do have to keep an eye out for additional low pressure development near the East Coast that day. Yesterday, some guidance painted Sunday as a much cloudier, wet day, but at this point I believe model error was a big part of this forecast, and that the more offshore and weaker solution of this unsettled weather is the more likely outcome, so I am going with the fair weather forecast for Sunday at this time – but something to watch, just in case.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Watching for a potential low pressure system to impact the region with some precipitation (probably rain, can’t rule out inland mix/snow) in the November 16-17 window, otherwise much of the period will be dry with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A little more up/down on the temperatures, but below normal overall. Mainly dry pattern – one system may bring passing unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Lots to cover in today’s blog post! While we don’t chat politics here, we can definitely cover the weather for Election Day, and today is that day. We’ve said goodbye to the warm spell, and today will feature a seasonable chill in the air, along with a gusty breeze, but otherwise fair weather with no travel issues to get to the polling place if you are voting in person. Now that we have one week in the books for November, let’s review a little bit. For Boston, the average temperature for the month so far is 61.9, which puts them in first place for the warmest first 7 days of November on record. Spots 2 through 6 are 61.0 in 1994, 59.7 in 1990, 59.6 in 2015, 58.9 in 1975, and 58.8 in 1982. Ironically, ONLY 1975 held onto a warm pattern for the entire month, becoming the warmest November on record for Boston – so far unchallenged. All of the other years in spots 2 through 6 fell out of the top 10 warmest. What will happen this time? My guess is we won’t be solidifying the warmth because a wholesale pattern change is looming. In fact, it’s already starting. Stage one was our cold front sweeping across the region yesterday, although it was still a warm day, we did see the dew point drop and finally in the evening the cool air arrived. This is from a Canadian high pressure area which will build across the region providing seasonably cool air through Wednesday, which will be a day that features lighter wind than today. High pressure will then drift off the south and east by Thursday which will feature fair weather with milder air arriving. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Nicole continues to get itself organized to the east of the Bahamas and is expected to consolidate somewhat into a more defined tropical system that may attain hurricane status before reaching the coast of Florida early Thursday, first passing through the northern Bahamas Wednesday. The forecast track for Nicole takes it northward later this week, and while it transitions to a “regular” storm system, it will be interacting with a trough and frontal system approaching our area from the west, and is very likely going to give us a good slug of rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Right now, I continue to anticipate dry weather hanging on for the daylight hours of Veterans Day on Friday – good news for outdoor ceremonies and parades that will be taking place. But at night, expect a soaker along with a gusty wind due to the combined effort of those systems. I think things will be moving along quickly enough so that we see only a wet start to Saturday with rapid improvement from west to east as the cold front sweeps through and offshore. We may salvage from about midday on with dry weather, although it will be quite breezy and turning cooler after a very mild beginning to the day – the next stage of our pattern change.

TODAY: Sunshine – just a few passing midday and afternoon clouds possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times, and a chance of thunder, along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

New weather pattern – below normal temperatures. Looking for dry weather for much of the time, then a potential low pressure system bringing some precipitation near the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Similar pattern, below normal temperatures, mainly dry weather, threat of one passing system with some precipitation mid to late period based on current projected timing of features. Always remember a forecast out beyond several days has a higher degree of potential error.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Summer ends today. Oops. I mean the feel of summer in November ends today. Our warm spell comes to an end after one more day of well above normal temperatures to start the week. A cold front is moving across the region as I write this discussion shortly after sunrise, accompanied by lots of clouds, though a nice sunrise was seen in some eastern areas, including a morning rainbow here at Woods Hill as rain showers approached from the west. This front crosses the region by midday with its briefly unsettled weather, then exits the region, but we’ll have already warmed nicely, and the much cooler air lags the frontal boundary by several hours, so we get the bonus warmth today before we feel the chill set in tonight on a gusty breeze. Canadian high pressure then brings us dry and seasonably chilly weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, a gusty breeze Tuesday with the high center still to the north, and lighter wind Wednesday as the high center comes right over the region. By Thursday and Friday, the high shifts offshore and we see a moderation in temperature, with fair weather through Thursday. But on Friday – Veterans Day – we will see an increase in cloudiness ahead of both an approaching trough from the west and low pressure from the south. The latter is currently Subtropical Storm Nicole to the east of the Bahamas. Nicole is expected to meander generally westward, passing through the northern Bahamas Wednesday and reaching Florida Thursday, before turning northward and moving across the Southeast States and likely off the East Coast, approaching our region by late Friday just as a trough starts to move in from the west. As it stands now, I’m reasonably confident that we’ll see dry weather through the daylight hours of Friday, including for any Veterans Day ceremonies / parades. It is late in the day and especially at night when we’re likely to see the wet weather arrive from these approaching systems…

TODAY: Clouds and rain showers cross the region from west to east morning. Sun returns west to east late morning through afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ falls through 50s later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers likely by end-of-day, rain at night. Highs 59-66. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable and gusty at night.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Stormy start to weekend as low pressure passes by November 12, then exits with dry, windy, cool weather for the November 13. Overall theme into next week is dry with below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period with passing low pressure, then a return to mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures as we’ll be in a new weather pattern which will have shifted the warmth out and the November chill in.