3:16PM

Time for a quick update!

Admittedly, today’s snow is a little more “impressive” than I thought it would be. Not that it’s a big storm, it’s a small one, resulting from a wave of low pressure passing pretty far south of southern New England on an old frontal boundary, but as I have often said in a pattern like this, “the atmosphere wants to snow”, so it did – from a solid coating north of Boston to up to a few inches to the south. This event will be winding down by early evening as the low pressure wave moves away, and as was noted in the previous forecast, will be followed by a chilly/dry Tuesday and another storm Wednesday. Not a whole lot has changed on my outlook for the Wednesday system. I expected to be a medium sized winter storm across most of the region, with sleet and rain becoming involved at least near the South Coast, and sleet possibly all the way up into the Boston area as some warmer air tries to come in aloft. But for most of the Boston area northward, it’ll be a snow event, not light and fluffy but not too wet either (somewhere in the middle), with 4+ inches for most areas just south of to around Boston, a little less toward the South Coast, and 6+ inches for most areas further north and west of Boston. I’ll refine this numbers in comments below and on the Facebook page, and in the next update here later tonight or early tomorrow. Beyond Wednesday’s storm will be a couple of cold and dry days, then we look to the weekend for the next storm threat. With this potential event being 5 to 6 days away from beginning, there is still plenty of uncertainty with its eventual impact on the region, but suffice it to say for now that this system will probably be of the large winter storm variety wherever it does impact. Will it be just the Mid Atlantic, or include New England as well? Time will tell, so stay tuned…

Oh and by the way, Boston tied a record high at 55 yesterday, so that shows you how quick we can go from a warm-up right back to winter weather.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Cloudy with snow, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION less than 1 inch north of Boston, 1-2 inches from Boston south with a spot 3 inch amount possible in some areas. Temperatures steady upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows upper 10s to lower 20s. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 20-25. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow north and west of Boston, snow may mix with sleet immediate Boston area, snow and sleet to the south except some rain South Coast. Potential snow accumulation of 6 inches or more north and west of  Boston, 4 inches or more Boston area southwestward to northern RI, and under 4 inches closer to the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 28.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 11. High 30.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

5:20PM

This week will feature pretty average weather that you might expect for the first week of  February – some cold, a couple storm threats. It’s a slightly different pattern than the one we’ve been in, a flatter flow overall but with enough jet stream energy and moisture to develop storm systems that make a run at the region, a supply of cold air from the north but not nearly to the level of the Arctic outbreaks we have seen in recent weeks.

Day-by-day breakdown:

Monday… Wave of low pressure passes south of New England, close enough to bring some light snow to far southern New England, mainly south of the Mass Pike, with some minor accumulation especially late morning through afternoon.

Tuesday… Quiet weather, chilly air as high pressure dominates.

Wednesday… Another storm, a bit of a mess because some sleet/rain may become involved, especially south of Boston, with mostly snow north of the city. It looks like a moderate sized system, but will be moving right along. So its impact may be somewhat significant as far as traveling goes, but it will not be anything close to a crippling storm. The precipitation situation will be determined by the exact track, which will in turn determine how much warming takes place aloft to bring sleet/rain into the picture. This still needs to be fine-tuned and this will take place as we move through the next 2 days.

Thursday-Friday… Quiet but cold weather as high pressure returns to the region and a fresh shot of polar air comes out of Canada along with it.

Weekend… The next storm threat, but the earliest indications are that this system may be pushed far enough south to avoid a major impact. Long way to go on this one.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow especially south of the Mass Pike late morning on. Accumulations of a coating to around 2 inches from around the Mass Pike southward to the the South Coast. Temperatures steady 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-20 inland valleys, 20-25 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/rain likely with most likely area for all snow northwest of Boston and most likely area for rain near the South Coast. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 28.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 14. High 28.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, especially south. Low 18. High 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, especially south. Low 16. High 30.

3:48PM

A mild air mass has invaded the region for the weekend as a warm front has lifted north of southern New England. A cold front will sweep through the region during Sunday with a few rain showers, but the chilly air behind it won’t really be felt until the late night hours.

The first several days of next week look more typical of February, with near to below normal temperatures and a couple storm threats. The first, Monday, should pass largely south of the region as low pressure moves along the recently-passed frontal system. Snow should occur in parts of southeastern New England, but at the moment accumulations look minor and mainly south of Boston. A quiet but chilly day is expected Tuesday as high pressure dominates. The next storm system will be a direct hit on Wednesday, and this fast moving system will start as snow everywhere due to the cold air in place. The uncertainty is what happens as the storm progresses. It should warm aloft enough to turn the snow to sleet/freezing rain in parts of southern New England. There is a significant chance that this system stays mostly snow or all snow north and west of Boston. It’s too early to talk about snow amounts. The end of the week is expected to be cold and quiet.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers early. Lows 22-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow possible, especially Boston south. Some accumulation likely, especially south of Boston. Highs 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 32.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely. Low 26. High 32.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 28.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 17. High 34.

7:25AM

A break in the cold is here, as the next 3 days will show. But hey, it’s still winter you know! A storm threat is showing itself next week, followed by another cold shot.

First, to end January and start February, it’ll be on the quiet but cloudy side as a front wavers around the region, dropping in as a cold front today, retreating back to the north as a warm front Saturday, then charging back through as a cold front Sunday, but not in a dramatic way because this time no Arctic air mass is set to charge in behind it.

Looking into next week, Monday looks cool and quiet, though a wave of low pressure on the recently-passed front may toss some clouds into the region but it looks like any precipitation should remain well offshore. Another storm will approach the region late Tuesday and pass through Wednesday. Very early indications are that this storm will have a track that will allow it to start as snow then change to sleet and rain in most of the region, but it should move right along and be followed by cold and dry weather Thursday.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Temperatures steady 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow to sleet/rain. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 30.

7:50PM

The latest cold snap of this winter is in its final stages with one more very cold night tonight and reasonably cold day tomorrow. Moderation follows, with temperatures going above freezing in some areas Friday and in all areas over the weekend. During this time, some minor weather systems will impact the region, first a cold front dropping into the region on Friday but with not much push to it, going back to the north as a warm front on Saturday, before a low pressure wave passing to the north of southern New England drives the front back through as a cold front on Sunday, which is a big day in sports (Super Bowl in NJ) and a big day in rodents predicting the weather (i.e., ground hog day). Upcoming blogs will have some outlooks for both of these events.

Looking into next week, seasonable cold returns Monday, and a storm threat looms for late Tuesday and Wednesday, but it’s far too early to determine the impact the storm may have on this region.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from 0 inland valleys to 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Wind light W.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow to rain showers. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 42.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Lows 15.  High 34.

WEDNESDAY: Snow or rain. Low 25. High 35.

8:40PM

The winter storm that is bringing some rare snow and ice to the Deep South is of an elongated nature and as it slides out well southeast of New England through early Wednesday, the northwestern extent of its snow shield will be over far southeastern New England, bringing up to several inches of snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket. It all gets out of the area during the day Wednesday leaving behind some more cold and dry air which will linger through Thursday.

Slight moderation follows on Friday but an approaching warm front will produce clouds and a slight chance of some very light snow. We will likely bust into the mild air on the other side of that front by Friday night and Saturday as low pressure passes to the north, then swings a cold front harmlessly through the region Saturday night, bringing slightly colder and dry weather for Sunday.

Next week is expected to start dry and chilly with high pressure in control, but low pressure may approach by later Tuesday with clouds arriving ahead of a midweek storm threat. But that storm threat is beyond my comfortable forecasting range at this time, so I am not going to speculate its potential at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops over most of RI and southeastern MA and should back its way northwestward up to about a line from Cape Ann to Boston to the northwest corner of RI. Lows 11-16. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH but a little stronger over Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY: Snow tapers off west to east where it is falling – accumulations from a dusting near Boston to 1-3 inches southeastern MA except 3-6 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 23-28. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 31.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 34.

10:59AM

This is a late-posted and brief version of the usual Sunday night post. Full blog this evening.

Simple pattern this week. A cold front plows through the region today, with brief mild air and rain showers ahead of it and a fast return to Arctic air behind it by tonight. Rain showers may end as snow showers as the cold air comes back in this afternoon. Dry and cold Tuesday through the middle of the week. Milder air tries to return later in the week but no major storminess expected at least into the first couple days of February (next weekend).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east, ending as snow showers this afternoon with brief minor accumulation possible. Highs in the 40s through midday but falling to the 30s southeastern areas and upper 20s north and west of  Boston later in the day. Wind SW shifting to W increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 10. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills below zero.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills around zero.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 20.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

5:39PM

Our old Winter pal, the Polar Vortex, will be spinning about eastern Canada for the foreseeable future, keeping us in a cold and dry pattern. There will be 2 brief “warm-ups”, Saturday and Monday as we get into the relative warm sectors of low pressure areas passing north of southern New England. The warm fronts from each of these will pass by Saturday morning and late Sunday night, respectively. The cold fronts from these 2 lows will come through Saturday evening and Monday afternoon, respectively. Each of these systems will produce the threat of some snow or snow showers, but no major snowstorms. Saturday’s system comes along with some decent instability, so there is some risk of minor snow accumulation in some locations with moderate to even briefly heavy snow showers. There are also indications that a main batch of snow showers will weaken as it nears the NH and MA East Coast and redevelops offshore. This will be monitored because only a brief heavy snow showers can cause dangerous travel, so we should not let down any guard. Cold eases on Saturday, when many areas may crack the freezing point for the first time in many days, but the cold will come right back in Sunday, only to ease a bit Monday and be reinforced yet again Tuesday into the middle of next week. Also, we’ll watch for some offshore storm development during the Tuesday-Thursday period of next week, but right now most indicators point to this storminess remaining offshore. As always, it will be monitored.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 10. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers developing west to east in the afternoon, but possibly rain showers over far southeastern MA especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Minor snow accumulation may occur in any locally moderate to heavier snow showers. Highs in the 30s, may reach 40 Cape Cod. Wind SW to S 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers and snow squalls early. Localized minor accumulations and brief low visibility in any passing heavier squalls. Lows 10-15. Wind shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Chance of light snow at night. Highs 15-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 15. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 15.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 20.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 25.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

7:00AM

Cold pattern. Dry pattern. Air supplied from the North Pole via Canada, not from Alaska. Boston was colder than Fairbanks on Wednesday, 17 and 30 respectively late afternoon at Boston and early afternoon at Fairbanks. Reinforcements of cold air are due here tonight as a system to the south dies and a cold front from the north northwest passes by dry, later Saturday from a stronger front and attendant moisture bringing a snow shower threat and a brief “warm up” first, and again Monday as another weak low and Arctic boundary blow through the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and coast. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 16. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Low 11. High 26.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 18.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 19.

3:22AM

Short version now, expanded blog later…

While my snow #’s were partly obliterated by Mother Nature (much less to the N & NW of Boston) it became a case of the “haves and have nots” as we saw a persistent band of snow dump many inches (over a foot in some cases) just south of Boston, southwestward to northern RI. A very sharp cut-off was observed just to the NW of this band with a rapid drop-off to 1 inch or less in north central and interior northeastern MA and southern NH.

This morning as low pressure winds up and passes well southeast of Cape Cod, a final batch of snow will be across southeastern MA and Cape Cod, then the storm will pull away leaving cold in its wake, which will dominate for many days, except for a brief moderation on Saturday as a disturbance passes north of the region and brings some snow showers.

A little later, more detail in the day-by-day, and a look into next week’s pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sharp contrast from snow/wind Cape Cod and southeastern MA to breaking clouds and clearing NW of Boston with the clearing pushing eastward with time. Lingering snow Cape Cod into midday where several more inches may occur. Areas of blowing snow. Temperatures steady in the teens. Wind N 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH gusting to 40 MPH coast. Wind chill near zero at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows -5 to 0 inland, 0-5 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH. Wind chill below zero.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 15.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 32.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 20.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 5. High 22.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 17.

7:31AM

An Arctic cold front passed through southern New England late Monday, and will now serve as the track for an express train low pressure area developing  off the Mid Atlantic Coast and traveling southeast of New England tonight through early Wednesday. Moisture from this system combined with the much colder air now in this region will produce a moderate to heavy snowfall in most of southeastern New England late today into early Wednesday.

The specifics of the snowfall…

*Starts over the South Coast by mid afternoon and overspreads all of RI and southern MA by sunset, then expands northward to include all of RI, eastern MA, and southern NH by early evening.

*Ends west to east during Wednesday morning.

*Blowing and drifting snow because of moderate to strong and gusty northerly wind.

*Blizzard conditions may occur along the South Shore of MA tonight.

*Very cold air, temperatures in the teens to single numbers most of the storm, wind chills often near to below zero.

*Snow accumulations: 5-10 inches most of the region except under 5 inches north central MA and southwestern NH and some areas of 10-12 inches or slightly greater in coastal southeastern MA. Remember to focus on ranges and not the high number.

*Coastal flooding: Minimal.

*Power outages: Minimal.

After the storm… Arctic air dominates – dry and very cold weather through Friday, moderating slightly Saturday but with a chance of snow showers as a disturbance passes through the region, then windy with a new cold air mass arriving by the end of the weekend and early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing across RI and southern MA by mid afternoon then progressing northward through eastern MA by dark or shortly thereafter. Highs 15-20, lower 20s South Coast. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, heaviest coastal and southeastern areas, with blizzard conditions possible at times South Shore. Blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-15. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to around or over 30 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH with gusts around or over 40 MPH coast, especially South Shore through Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with snow tapering off west to east morning. Clearing afternoon though clouds and snow showers lingering Cape Cod. Temperatures steady 10-15. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH. Blowing and drifting snow.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 30.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.

12:12AM

Certainty: cold.

Uncertainty: snow.

A broad upper level low spinning around eastern Canada and poking spokes into the northeastern US will deliver plenty of cold air this week, starting with the passage of an Arctic cold front Monday. As this front settles just south of New England, a wave of low pressure is expected to develop on it and pass south and east of the region Tuesday night, bringing a period of snow. What is still unclear is how much snow will fall from this. Right now, leaning toward a light amount north and west of Boston and a moderate amount to the southeast, dry and fluffy, with a gusty wind. Another threat may come along around Thursday but at the moment this is looking weaker and further south. But computer models have trouble with such things around a broad trough, struggling with timing and development, so “monitor mode” will be essential. It may briefly moderate next weekend ahead of yet another push of Arctic air.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers first half of the afternoon, snow showers and isolated snow squalls second half of the afternoon. Highs in the 30s, falling into the 20s late in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated snow squalls. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chills around zero at times.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow mainly afternoon and night with up to a few inches north and west of Boston and several inches possible from Boston southeastward. Highs 15-20. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 15.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 4. High 18.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 24.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 14. High 34.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 19. High 32.

9:30PM

I could whine. I could be cranky. I could make up an excuse for a bad forecast. But I will do neither of those. It was a bad forecast. I don’t care if it was a bad forecast by everybody. It was a bad forecast by me. So how did I know that it may snow significantly enough to plow/shovel today about 5 days in advance but somehow not forecast it the day before? Easy answer. When you’re 5 days away from a potential event, it’s easy to talk about what you think may happen. You have time to refine it, adjust the forecast a little at a time so it doesn’t look like a drastic change. You don’t need to worry. You have nothing but time. About 5 days ago I was reviewing guidance and applying what I know about meteorology to it, and came up with the idea that there would be a snow threat for Saturday. But somewhere between then and Friday, I lost hold of that idea, and believed I had a better idea that the threat that once looked somewhat significant had dwindled to an insignificant disturbance with rain and some snow, but not significant snow. But even last night there were hints that this system may turn out a little more significant after all. I didn’t really bite on it. I kept it in the back of my mind and gave more weight to the higher confidence forecast I made just hours before. We now know how well that worked out. Snowfall amounts Saturday ranged from nothing along the South Shore and through Cape Cod to an inch or so along the coast of the North Shore but rapidly building up to 2-4 inches just inland and 4-8 inches from near I-95 northward from Route 2 into southern NH. Amounts dropped off southwest of Boston but several inches still fell in some of the hilly areas. That was the result. Mother Nature got me good on that one. And speaking of Moms, the irony is that last week in chatting with mine I decided to take care of some outside stuff that may have waited until this weekend, because I had a feeling some snow would be on the ground by  Saturday/Sunday. Had a feeling? Where’s the science in that? I had it right on a hunch a week in advance, but had it wrong on applied meteorology less than 24 hours out from the event. Sometimes the weather fools you, despite your best application of your knowledge acquired in your years of college and all of your years of experience since. Today, a humble reminder that you can never make a perfect forecast, you’ll make some really bad ones, and you can only do your best.

Well now it’s time to move on, and in having taken up much of your reading time already, I’ll keep this part short and simple. We’re heading back into the cold pattern. The uncertainty will be snow threats, but for now I’m going to lean toward the drier side of things and just keep an eye on disturbances rotating around the large scale upper level low pressure area that will be dominating eastern Canada and the northeastern US in the days ahead. Our Saturday storm is on its way out, and a dying disturbance will deliver clouds and a little snow for the first half of Sunday before some clearing follows. An Arctic cold front will knife through the region Monday and may produce a few snow showers and squalls. The deep freeze arrives Tuesday and lasts a while, and as stated above there is uncertainty on snow threats, but for now the most likely day for one seems like it would be Thursday.

One more significant warning before moving to the forecast details. Please use caution if out walking or driving tonight and Sunday morning as below freezing temperatures will create icy areas on untreated surfaces where snow has been removed by the ground was wet, or the ground is still wet from rain that fell further to the southeast of Boston.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow tapering off. Little additional accumulation. Lows in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch this morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls. Highs 30-35 by midday then falling through the 20s by later in the day. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 17.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 2. High 16.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 28.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 14. High 32.

7:42AM

It’s getting simple. Widespread upper level low pressure will dominate eastern Canada extending into the northeastern US starting in a few days and lasting for quite a while. Transitioning out of the current mild spell and toward that renewed cold pattern with a few disturbances passing through this coming weekend – none of them significant. Will keep an eye on the colder pattern next week for snow threats but it looks largely dry. Hints in the medium range at a snow threat late next week, and before that the midweek threat should be offshore and not an impact. Again the main story will become the cold air.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Patchy fog & low clouds early, then sunshine & a few clouds remainder of the day. Highs in the 40s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows around 25-35 valleys to South Coast. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow/mix showers inland and rain showers coast. No snow accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers early. Watch for icy patches on the ground later at night. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 20.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 18.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low -5. High 18.

7:30AM

The weather has a mind of its own and doesn’t often exactly do what even a well thought-out forecast predicts. I didn’t predict widespread fog overnight and this morning. And in the days leading up to this I didn’t predict exactly what’s going to transpire the next few days, not that it will be vastly different, but it’s just another reminder of the unpredictability of weather and the inexactness of the science of meteorology.

Last night’s and this morning’s fog will gradually thin out and dissipate as the day goes on, but before that it may not only cause a problem in terms of reduced visibility but also ice. This fog will be depositing some ice on some surfaces outside the city of Boston, especially western and northern suburbs, where temperatures have fallen a little below freezing. “Ice fog” is not unheard of around here, but not something we see too often either. Temperatures will go above freezing in all areas later this morning and any ice will melt. The day will continue to feature lots of clouds as a disturbance from the west and clouds from a storm system developing offshore converge over the region. Precipitation will be limited to a little rain over Cape Cod and a flake or two of snow in north central MA from the two systems. We’ll be in between systems Friday, which will feature mild air, lots of clouds, and some sun. Another system will develop offshore Friday night and Saturday but again it looks like the bulk of this system will be over the fish. This time enough of the moisture should get into the region to produce some light rain and snow with no significant snow accumulation.

By Sunday and Monday we will be in transition toward a coming much colder weather pattern. A couple disturbances will bring the chance of snow showers, especially Sunday with temperatures getting back to seasonal cold. By Tuesday into the  middle of next week, it will be much colder as the “dreaded Polar Vortex” (sarcasm) makes its return. What I am  not sure of this far out is if any significant snow will accompany the return to the cold pattern. Some models have shown this, while others just keep it dry. Plenty of time to iron those details out. Just know that we are heading back to the cold next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Fog dominates the morning and also watch for icy areas in the suburbs especially north and west of Boston, clouds dominate the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind light variable to SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/snow. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.