Oh, Snow Is Me!

205 Comments

9:30PM

I could whine. I could be cranky. I could make up an excuse for a bad forecast. But I will do neither of those. It was a bad forecast. I don’t care if it was a bad forecast by everybody. It was a bad forecast by me. So how did I know that it may snow significantly enough to plow/shovel today about 5 days in advance but somehow not forecast it the day before? Easy answer. When you’re 5 days away from a potential event, it’s easy to talk about what you think may happen. You have time to refine it, adjust the forecast a little at a time so it doesn’t look like a drastic change. You don’t need to worry. You have nothing but time. About 5 days ago I was reviewing guidance and applying what I know about meteorology to it, and came up with the idea that there would be a snow threat for Saturday. But somewhere between then and Friday, I lost hold of that idea, and believed I had a better idea that the threat that once looked somewhat significant had dwindled to an insignificant disturbance with rain and some snow, but not significant snow. But even last night there were hints that this system may turn out a little more significant after all. I didn’t really bite on it. I kept it in the back of my mind and gave more weight to the higher confidence forecast I made just hours before. We now know how well that worked out. Snowfall amounts Saturday ranged from nothing along the South Shore and through Cape Cod to an inch or so along the coast of the North Shore but rapidly building up to 2-4 inches just inland and 4-8 inches from near I-95 northward from Route 2 into southern NH. Amounts dropped off southwest of Boston but several inches still fell in some of the hilly areas. That was the result. Mother Nature got me good on that one. And speaking of Moms, the irony is that last week in chatting with mine I decided to take care of some outside stuff that may have waited until this weekend, because I had a feeling some snow would be on the ground by  Saturday/Sunday. Had a feeling? Where’s the science in that? I had it right on a hunch a week in advance, but had it wrong on applied meteorology less than 24 hours out from the event. Sometimes the weather fools you, despite your best application of your knowledge acquired in your years of college and all of your years of experience since. Today, a humble reminder that you can never make a perfect forecast, you’ll make some really bad ones, and you can only do your best.

Well now it’s time to move on, and in having taken up much of your reading time already, I’ll keep this part short and simple. We’re heading back into the cold pattern. The uncertainty will be snow threats, but for now I’m going to lean toward the drier side of things and just keep an eye on disturbances rotating around the large scale upper level low pressure area that will be dominating eastern Canada and the northeastern US in the days ahead. Our Saturday storm is on its way out, and a dying disturbance will deliver clouds and a little snow for the first half of Sunday before some clearing follows. An Arctic cold front will knife through the region Monday and may produce a few snow showers and squalls. The deep freeze arrives Tuesday and lasts a while, and as stated above there is uncertainty on snow threats, but for now the most likely day for one seems like it would be Thursday.

One more significant warning before moving to the forecast details. Please use caution if out walking or driving tonight and Sunday morning as below freezing temperatures will create icy areas on untreated surfaces where snow has been removed by the ground was wet, or the ground is still wet from rain that fell further to the southeast of Boston.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow tapering off. Little additional accumulation. Lows in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch this morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls. Highs 30-35 by midday then falling through the 20s by later in the day. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 17.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 2. High 16.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 28.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 14. High 32.

205 thoughts on “Oh, Snow Is Me!”

  2. I do t care how great the technology In, Meteorology is. The weather is always going to have the upper hand.

  3. TK you were in great company and in the end it was almost better not knowing cause I think everyone just went about their plans for the day which they may not have otherwise

    Now that being said, I feel as if I need to shoulder some of the blame. I definitely got cocky and put my hair dryer away far sooner than I should have. I won’t speak for Deb and Sue but I bet the same exact thought ran though their heads. 😀

    1. Lol…no hair dryer needed down here today Vicki. We had some big flakes for about 15 minutes and then back to rain.

  4. Thinking we could see a little snow on Thursday. Sort of been looking that way for a couple of days now.

  5. I’m not looking forward to the cold returning but at least from what I’m hearing it won’t be as cold as it was hopefully.

  6. WTF? Snowing moderately in Woburn…cars covered again, and everything I shoveled. Why won’t this thing just leave???

  8. Gameday
    Go Patriots!!
    Temp didn’t get as cold as I thought last night
    Temp 33.2 degrees
    Patriots @ Broncos 3pm

  9. Logan officially received exactly 2.0″ of snow yesterday bringing the seasonal total so far to 29.0″…not bad given the original forecast of barely a coating for Boston. 🙂

    1. Btw, I am still alive in our Logan snowfall contest, but my days may be numbered soon = 31.7″. So much for the “dry” pattern. 😉

  10. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What team did the Patriots beat in the coldest game recorded at Gillette Stadium?
    A. Colts
    B. Ravens
    C. Titans
    D. Jets

    Answer later today. Extra points if you know the year and the temperature.

  11. FYI- A little snow coming in from the west. All who are traveling in the next couple of hours take it easy behind the wheel

  13. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. (Weather?)

    Who was the first Patriot to rush for more than 100 yards.
    A. Ron Burton
    B. Sam Cunningham
    C. Jim Nance
    D. Larry Garron

    Answer later today.

  14. Yesterday was my son’s tenth birthday. It looks like his wishes for snow on his day were not factored into the forecast.

    The snow was even more thrilling for him because it was a surprise.

  18. Wankum saying 2 possible snow events this week tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday night. He said the Tuesday system could drop 4 inches or so along the coast.

  20. 34.0 degrees here, we have a coating left here in Foxboro, today is all about getting prepared for the BIG game, Go Patriots!!!

  21. Repost of Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizes.

    What team did the Patriots beat in the coldest game recorded at Gillette Stadium?
    A. Colts
    B. Ravens
    C. Titans
    D. Jets

    Extra points if you know the year and the temperature.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. (Weather?)

    Who was the first Patriot to rush for more than 100 yards.
    A. Ron Burton
    B. Sam Cunningham
    C. Jim Nance
    D. Larry Garron

    Answers later today.

  22. Well so much for the “lack of snowcover” modifying the next outbreak. Where it’s coming from, you can throw that out the window, INCLUDING for areas that didn’t get any snow yesterday. The core of the cold air may not be as cold as the previous outbreak, and that will be your reason why it is not as cold. However there may be another shot of cold air lurking behind the first one that out-does the one earlier in January. Stay tuned…

  23. I have seen a few met’s (who I shall not name) blindly following the 06z GFS and updating their forecasts based only on that run of a suspect model.

    I caution anybody about believing too much of what you hear from them at this point.

  27. Latest 12z GFS run wants to bring some accumulating snow later in the week. The bullseye being eastern parts of SNE with around 5 inches.

  28. John that would be the Thursday Friday system. It does not look like a big storm the bigger weather story this week will be the return of below normal temps.

    1. Thanks longshot. First time I saw pics from there I thought they were doctored. Its amazing watching the cars as they drive down roads with snow banks the height of skyscrapers.

  30. Be very wary of the GFS. It’s unstable. It has NO IDEA which waves to develop and which to leave alone. The amounts of scenarios that it has had for the Monday-Saturday period in the last half dozen runs alone is well…pretty much…a half dozen different ones. 😉

      1. WAY WAY WAY too much uncertainty to make that call.

        I would never put that on air on Saturday night / Sunday morning.

  31. Not bad at all that heading into the snowiest part of winter that Logan has 29 inches recorded. I need 51 more inches.

      1. I believe 51 will be hard to attain for the rest of this winter.

        Thinking for Boston, 10-20 left.

        1. It’s not impossible. We got 2 double digit snowstorms last February and march. 51 is a big number in a short time but you never know. If we can finish this month with some accumulation in which case I think we do than that helps our chances. It could be close, it could exceed or could fall really short. Hawks score first.

          1. It could happen in 3 weeks’ time. I just am not sure the pattern will support biggies during the back half of winter. Time will tell.

  32. We’ve gotten 19.5 inches of snow here to date, that’s about 2 inches above average to date.
    Sunny temp is 35.2 degrees
    GOOOOOO PATRIOTS!!!!!!

  34. Good luck to your Patroits. As I said last week I think the run is over today for the Patriots. Great season and clearly over achieved. I am thinking a 38-34 34 -31 game. The other game I am going with Seattle 20-16 20-17 game.

      1. I just hope for two great football games today. I hate waiting till 3 for the first game. I remember when these
        championship games were at 12:30 and 4:00.

          1. Its a good day to be a Boston sports fan with the Bruins playing now and by the time that ends flip over
            and watch the Patriots.
            I am so happy I could see the Pats game in my own home now that WFSB is back on after Cablevision
            and Meredith Coroporation the owners of WFSB came to an agreement late last night. I was without WFSB
            for just over two weeks.

        2. At least pats have first game. Lets go pats!!!. Stores taking a big gamble. If the pats win you can go into any dicks or models and they will have everything in stock. They said huge gamble but wanted to have stuff on hand if pats can pull it off. Also will open at 6am tomorrow. Donate to third world country if they loose.

  35. I think Peyton is the only QB playing today who did not receive an offer to play in Major League Baseball. I believe Brady got an offer to play for maybe Montreal around the 20th round.

  36. I used to get nervous about games.
    I don’t any longer. I haven’t since sometime after 1986.
    After the World Series loss .. and then finally seeing all 4 major sports teams win it all in my city, whatever happens happens. I root hard for my teams, but if they don’t win, so be it. Nobody wins all the time, so I’m prepared for anything.

    That said, go Patriots!

    Watching the rest of the Bruins first.

    2. You’d think the number of times I watched kids compete I would have gotten over being nervous. Mac had to take Kim to barn to prepare and ship prior to horse shows. I made the horses nervous :). Maybe in this case nervous is not as good a term as excited. With kids…….definitely nerves but never that they wouldn’t win. Always that they would be happy with their effort and learn from it if they were not.

      Ok I’m rambling. Darn its taking a long time to get to kickoff

  43. I have a very bad feeling about this game. I know the Pats have been strong in the 2nd half all season but I am just not sure they pull this one off.

    1. I saw some fans that gave up on this game in the FIRST QUARTER.

      I know odds are against them and this is more than a mountain to climb, but those people were giving up on the team when they were down by TEN well before the first half was even over?

      THOSE are the kinds of fans that annoy me. Not real fans, IMO. I saw one person post that Brady sucks. Yup, a supposed fan of the team. Did he forget about all the guy has accomplished? Maybe he’s not having a great game but how can someone say he sucks? Sad.

      3. And the fans blaming Brady need to watch the game. The D is not doing well. Manning and whomever he choses as a receiver might as well be playing alone. There is no coverage

        1. The D is not playing well..but they aren’t playing horribly….On the other Brady doesn’t look right at all.

          1. Keith. I’d have to disagree. Nearly Every receiver has been standing on his own. There has literally been no coverage from the pats D. Our receivers are double covered. Brady has no choice but to overthrow. I’m not saying Brady is spot on. I am saying that there is a whole lot more not working than Brady.

    1. John when they are double covered and he throws to them they intercept. It isn’t Brady. The entire team is not executing. The D isn’t there. The receivers are not where they need to be. If they are their D has them covered.

      1. You look at Brady real close and tell me he is having a good game, last pass included. Love the pats Vicki but as a huge fan I tell it like it is. Lots of overthrows.

    1. It’s sure looking that way. Denver on the hunt again. I swear Brady looks like pop Warner quarterback today. The clock is just ticking away. Denver’s going in again.

    1. There getting beat in every aspect of the game including coaching. I am so pissed at this team right now.

      1. How do you get pissed at a team that against all odds is here and now? Looked at what Denver had for receivers alone compare to ours.

        2. In a sense this was a stronger team going into the game today as opposed to their last meeting when the Pats won in OT. With that in mind I expected today to be a closer battle. Not sure they would have won given their history in Denver but a much closer game. I know they lost Talib but it seems this one was in the crapper from almost the start. I blame the offensive play calling, Brady and the defensive secondary.

    1. I like the positive attitude Hadi, but the odds of us getting a blizzard of ’78 repeat overnight are higher.

  54. Ok – just a thought.

    Well, it’s possible we could win. Hoping they do; just can’t stand it watching them lose.

    1. Yes he does, Hadi We may not go to the Super Bowl but I will not fault the pats for the season they have given their fans. It’s been amazing

  61. Still happy with the season. 2nd string team pretty much, made it to the AFC Championship game and got beaten by a better team. That’s how it goes!

    Anybody have a preference for the 2nd game?

    I will be working on The Week Ahead shortly.

    May be adding snow to the forecast Tuesday night. NOW I’m starting to see ample evidence to possibly go for some.

    I told y’all that the models were going to be all over the place deciding when snow threats would be when we transitioned back into the cold pattern. Now it wants it sooner rather than later. 🙂

      1. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen yet.
        He was just the first one to go with the first model that had it.

  62. Great season from pats after getting hit with everything this year. I knew all year the Super Bowl was going through Denver. But right now as a pats fan I am very disappointed with how the played today and not happy with coaching staff.

  63. I am sick!!! Now I all I have left is my favorite team, the Bruins who although in 1st place are driving me absolutely nuts with their play, not to mention there are 4-5 teams who look better.

    1. To make matters worse all I see are bunches of little, annoying snow events coming up. I am moving to Florida tonight and hibernating until the Pats 1st game in the 2014 season.

  64. One more thought to go along with what I said before (about the team going in to this game). Denver stuffed the run early and the Pats basically abandoned it in the first half. That’s been Josh McDaniels MO during his years here. For the most part it’s served him (and the Pats) well. But today maybe they abandoned it a little early. Yeah..I know Monday Morning quarterbacking on my part but I think a lot of people may be wondering the same thing.

  66. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What team did the Patriots beat in the coldest game recorded at Gillette Stadium?
    A. Colts
    B. Ravens
    C. Titans
    D. Jets
    The answer is C, the Titans in 2004 and it was 4 degrees.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Who was the first Patriot to rush for more than 100 yards.
    A. Ron Burton
    B. Sam Cunningham
    C. Jim Nance
    D. Larry Garron

    The answer is A, Ron Burton.

  68. Ugly football game. Hard to watch. Did not like some of the play-calling. But, in the end, Denver is the better team. Obviously a better offensive team. But also a much better team on defense than people gave them credit for. I watched them completely stuff the run several times this year, and felt that the Patriots would have no running game. If you then have to rely on a thin core of small receivers, you’re not going to win.

    Now, if the weather in New Jersey is below 35F, or snowy, Denver loses the Super Bowl. Guaranteed. This is one of many reasons I don’t like Manning. He needs the conditions to be right to win these key games.

  69. I was listening to sports hub last night and heard the the most stupid weather thing ever. Some mets not around here were on record saying it would be a warm game. No chances of snow either before game day, on game day or the day after the Super Bowl . Give me a break.

    1. I want SF all the way. Can’t stand the Seahawks and their cheerleader coach and drug taking players, lol

  72. Again, model issues. First, snow event that looks most impressive is Saturday the 25th, then Thursday the 23rd, now Tuesday the 21st, after having a surprise one on Saturday the 18th. Watch, tomorrow we’ll be back to Thursday the 23rd again. 😛

    1. Ok you lost me there. Tuesday looks better than Thursday with possible 4 inches maybe. Thursday could be weaker but give areas south more snow.

      1. Just talking about how every one of the last few days the next snow threat looked like it’d be a day different from the previous. 🙂

    1. Yup. Plan on a Tuesday night event winding down Wednesday morning. Looks minor but maybe a 2 on the scale because it may impact commutes.

  74. TK, I was looking out on the horizon and seeing lots of events, but a little confused about Saturday because I didn’t think I was seeing much model agreement … something new … LOL.

  75. With this upcoming pattern, there will be snow chances, but it will be very difficult to get something to develop into something significant. Small nuisance events IMO. Really wish we had the blocking to slow things down in the atmosphere

    3. The lack of blocking has been the problem this winter and one of the reason’s we have not had a classic Noreaster yet.
      Three snow chances this week but none look to be blockbusters or even moderate snow events.

      2. Absolutely right and no change in sight. The next threat, late Tuesday, hit or miss is going to be one fast mover.

    1. 100% agree John. I’m not usually a fan of the NFC but this game, especially the 2nd half has been awesome

      2. Its nice to watch 2 athletes at QB. Not saying Brady and Manning aren’t, but there’s something to be said for having mobile QB’s who can make things happen with their legs. I really believe we are seeing the beginning to the end of the traditional “pocket passer” in the NFL

      3. I honestly thought that the pats game would be a really good one. Still mad at the pats as I’m sorry they just did not show up for this one at all levels.

        1. Just saw a report Brady played with a torn ligament in his throwing hand for part of the season. Not sure when this happened.

          1. Imagine what Brady would do with a team like these other three have. We could have had Gordon. We likely could have had bolden. Edelman should be third maybe second option. He is first. Welker is what…4th – maybe 3rd. He was Brady’s first. I’m watching the coverage on receivers in this game even and thinking it would have been nice if Pats D has done the same.

      4. I watch any football game ace, I love the game. With the other sports I just watch bruins and sox. I don’t watch basketball as I don’t like it, but football any game or team I can enjoy the game.

  78. I’d say its a toss up for the winner of this game. Could come down to who has ball last. If I had to choose now I would probably say sf.

  83. Great 2nd game !! Will be fun to watch great offense vs great defense in 2 weeks !!

    Ok, now ….. do I have to worry about snow Tuesday ?

  84. Sorry, sad state of football. Yes, it’s become America’s game. It can be thrilling at times. But, the despicable `interview’ we all just witnessed with Erin Andrews sums up the thuggery and borderline criminal aspect of some of the players of this sport. Sherman’s in-your-face shouting at the camera (telling the world and Erin about his prowess, and not his team’s, of course) while Erin is trying to ask him a question about the play he made to make his team move on was revolting. Sickening. And you could see it in Erin’s face. She’s seen it all. But, Sherman’s immature, selfish, self-centered, idiotic jeering at the camera made himself look like the fool that he is. It’s why I like the Patriots. At least they can control themselves and focus on the team, respect the interviewer and the opposition, and not act like egotistical maniacs in front of the camera. Unfortunately, I see all too much Sherman-like behavior in the current game. Whether this is partly drug/steroids-induced. I don’t know. It may be, as the NFL (and NBA) hardly have a drug policy in place. The men do often appear so out of control, so amped up. I apologize for the rant, but it’s what bothers me so much about the NFL.

    1. When Pats played at Seattle last year, he mouthed off after the game. Not surprised one bit that came from him.

      1. I hope you’re right. Best thing would be to suspend him for the Superbowl. It would send a message, believe me.

        As you know, kids see that. Perhaps not really young ones who are in bed, but impressionable young children/adults do. They emulate their heroes and stars. And yes, Sherman’s got talent. He’s a very good athlete. But, the wild aggression (his eyes were not normal, John, he looked psychotic, quite frankly) when he knows (or should) that he’s being interviewed live on TV in front of a national audience is so off-putting and jarring to the senses.

    3. Good comments Joshua. I wasn’t aware of what sherman did until Hadi commented on FB. Safe to say I’ll be rooting for Denver. Ohhhhh that was painful to say. What strikes me as odd is pats lost by only 4 pts more than SF.

      I’m looking for snow. No matter what it does, it is a winner.

    4. I agree, u don’t see the thuggery with the Pats (aside from Hernandez, lol), but Belichick is hardly respectful to the interviewer. His often dismissive and immature behavior with the media IMO is just as bad. Everything else I agree with u on, the NFL needs to clean up their act.

    1. Not bashing Bill. He’s not exactly forthcoming. But, that’s not an egregious fault. Bill hardly ever talks about himself, and never emphasizes one particular player. That has rubbed off on most of the team. It’s amazing how team-oriented the Patriots are or become once they join the Pats.

      1. Bill just does not put up with any crap, period no matter who you are. And he shouldn’t because these guys get paid very well to play ball. Bill is very respected in the league by both players and coaches. He is just all business like and can’t fault him for that. I heard in non football he is a good guy.

  89. Ch 7 saying storm coming Tuesday. As of now more snow south shore and cape maybe several inches with a couple inches boston north and west but saying any small jog will push it more the other way. It will be cold, windy and probably ocean enhancement.

    1. The way storms have trended west all winter, id say this one does as well. Models are trending stronger with this one as well.

    1. Yes. Tuesday night will be stormy. Right now more south of boston and even more cape. But it could go like I said earlier the other way. Wankum has been all over this.

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