DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

There’s plenty of wet weather in this 5-day forecast. Here’s how it unfolds. A cold front drifts across the region today from northwest to southeast, and we start out with mild air ahead of it, then turn gradually colder. At the same time, low pressure heads our way from the Mid Atlantic, and hooks up with the front, moving southeast of our region tonight and to our east later Thursday. This set-up will squeeze out a decent rainfall for our region, on the order of 1 to 3 inches. While the bulk of that rainfall will occur during tonight, the event does stretch over about 24 hours, with the first raindrops around dusk today and the final raindrops later in the day Thursday, especially in southeastern areas where it lingers longer, and may even mix with a few wet snowflakes (southeastern MA) before ending. Watch for flooding issues in prone areas from this upcoming event. We get a break on Friday as a sliver of high pressure brings us dry weather, even some sun. But for our weekend, it looks like other than some potential first-thing-in-the-morning sun on Saturday, it’s to be a cloudy one, and another slug of rain comes from our next storm system Saturday night into Sunday. This one will deliver a shot of chilly air with gusty wind as it leaves the region later Sunday, and there may even be some snow showers Sunday night, a reminder that while we haven’t had much of a “winter”, that the season is still technically with us.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain arrives near day’s end. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, S 5-15 MPH midday on.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain, heavy at times. Lows 38-45. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH but variable along the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Steadiest rain early to mid morning tapering to occasional light rain/drizzle late morning on. Temperatures steady 38-45 except rising to 45-52 RI and southeastern MA briefly before cooling again. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except variable to SW for a brief time Cape Cod / Islands before shifting back to NE 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with lingering rain that may end mixed with snow southeastern MA. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially eastern coastal areas in the evening.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Partial sun, then cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog during the morning. Rain ends midday followed by breaking clouds and maybe a passing rain shower afternoon. Chance of rain and/or snow showers evening and night. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming W 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH during the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

Behind low pressure comes a gusty wind, chilly air, and potentially a few snow showers March 11. Watch for a quick-moving system with a precipitation threat March 13, otherwise somewhat drier pattern next week. Coolest weather March 12, but overall temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Pattern as we head through the final days of winter and welcome spring (vernal equinox March 19) looks active with variable temperatures including a couple precipitation events that may include frozen or mixed.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A wet pattern lasts for the remainder of this week continuing this weekend. We’ll be impacted by 3 low pressure systems, the first of which will give a light to moderate rain event to the region today, especially this afternoon and evening, as the small and not-too-strong but moisture-laden low center drifts up via the Mid Atlantic. Behind that it’s mild for early Wednesday, and we have a shot at some sunny breaks to start the day. A cold front will sag southward through the region later in the day and at night, cooling it down. The next low pressure area lifts into the region, again via the Mid Atlantic, Wednesday night and Thursday. This one has the potential to produce heavier rainfall, especially from the I-95 belt eastward as it stands now (may have to tweak this heavier forecast area though before the event). Watch for the potential for short term street and small stream flooding and medium term river flooding to result from this system. A break comes on Friday as a weak area of high pressure builds in, and this may last into Saturday before the next storm system approaches with more precipitation. There’s been a medium range question regarding precipitation type for the weekend threat, but leaning toward at least a rain start for that one.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Rain arrives midday and afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapers off by late evening. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Patchy fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible morning. Cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Highs 47-52 South Coast / Cape Cod, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, may be heavy at times overnight, especially I-95 eastward. Lows 38-45. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, heaviest in the morning, tapering gradually thereafter. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts, shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partial sun. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Partial sun, then cloudy. Chance of rain late day or at night. Highs 40-47. Wind variable becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

Storm impacting the region with rain and possible mix/snow March 10 (rain favored at this point). Rain/snow showers possible as low pressure lifts away but upper level low pressure crosses the region during March 11. Drier pattern toward the middle of next week. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

Potential unsettled weather favors early period, followed by a drying trend. Temperatures trend cooler.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

Since yesterday many areas broke out into more sunshine than I forecast, I’ll stay optimistic for a while today and go for some breaks of sun too, but clouds will definitely become dominant and eventually overtake all areas as the day goes on as our air flow turns more easterly and low level moisture is added – despite the fact that a weak area of high pressure is in control. Either way, low pressure drifts up our way from the south by tomorrow, and we’ll have an overcast day with eventual rainfall for the region too. This system is somewhat similar to the one we saw come through on Saturday, and will exit the region Tuesday night. This leaves the possibility for a little drying, perhaps enough for some partial sun early Wednesday. This day will find us in a mild air mass, so any sun can boost the temps well beyond 50, maybe toward 60 with enough sun. But that party will end quickly as a cold front drops through the region in the evening and low pressure rides along it from the southwest during Thursday. This will bring another round of rain, and as cold air filters in as the system goes by, the rain may end mixed with snow, or even change to snow before ending in some areas. Right now, my feeling is that this will take place late enough in the precipitation that we won’t need to worry about any accumulations, but at this time of year the “surprise factor” is there, so we should keep an eye on the end of that event. High pressure builds in for Friday, and I feel a little more optimistic about at least some limited sunshine for that day, although it will remain cool.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, but breaks of sun are possible through early afternoon. A few patches of fog and drizzle especially near the coast. Highs 46-53, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle especially east of I-95. Lows 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives midday and afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapers off by late evening. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Patchy fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible morning. Cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 38-45. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, may mix with or change to snow before ending late. Highs 38-45 early, then slowly falling. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, may be stronger along the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partial sun. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

Probable storm with rain/mix/snow chances March 9-10 weekend. Drier trend follows early next week, but additional unsettled weather may be back as early as the middle of next week. Temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

Potential unsettled weather favors early period, followed by a drying trend. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

There are 2 opportunities that I see for brief “bonus sunshine” to occur during the next several days. They are today (midday and afternoon, if enough dry air can flow in behind departing low pressure) and Wednesday with the potential for some clear slots in the dominant cloud cover ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, the sky is going to be cloudy most of the time through the middle of the coming week. Today, as mentioned, low pressure is exiting the region after giving a decent rainfall to the region Saturday afternoon and night. And believe it or not, this rainfall was beneficial, because we’ve been on the drier side of normal 3 out of 5 months from October through February, and abnormally dry conditions were starting to make an appearance. This would put us at risk of re-entering drought if the dry trend continues, so any rainfall is beneficial. And we’ll have other such benefits ahead from not only rainfall, but even some potential frozen stuff becoming involved before this 5-day period is done. But first, we search for elusive breaks of sun this afternoon. Will there be any? The next low pressure lifts northward from off the Mid Atlantic Coast later Monday through Tuesday. While we stay rain-free Monday, we don’t Tuesday, and it should be a wet midday and afternoon across the region, though it may take the rain a little longer to reach southeastern areas – Cape Cod mainly, due to the orientation of the rainfall associated with the low. This system departs later Tuesday night, and we get a briefly warmer push of air into our area thanks to a southwesterly wind ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. It is during the morning and midday hours Wednesday that we have our next shot of sneaking in some sunshine, but again we’ll need a bit of weather luck to pull it off. Eventually, the front moves southward and produces rain showers in the region, and a heavier overcast. This front will not be charging through, just easing through, and on Thursday, low pressure is set to move along it and intensify while passing to our south. This system will bring a cold rain to the region, which may mix with and turn to snow before ending, depending on how much cold air gets involved. At Day 5, this is not a high confidence forecast nor can it be put into much detail, other than saying the greatest chance of frozen precipitation would probably be the further north and west you go, and higher in elevation you are. But even these are not set-in-stone aspects of the threat, just early-look ones, so continue to check upcoming blog posts.

TODAY: Foggy areas through mid morning, and a few patches of drizzle around, otherwise clouds dominate, but may break for sun at times. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Patchy fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible morning. Cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to N late in the day from north to south.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, may mix with or change to snow before ending late. Highs 38-45 early, then slowly falling. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, may be stronger along the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Dry March 8. Potential storm with rain/mix/snow chances March 9-10 weekend. Drier trend after. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

Unsettled weather returns early to mid period followed by dry weather later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

The first weekend of March will be so-so. Today is a cloudy day and eventually rain overspreads the region as a small area of low pressure slides northeastward from the Mid Atlantic toward southeastern New England, passing by tonight. Rain ends overnight as low pressure starts to pull away, but it does look like this low will intensify enough to aid in a partial clearing process on Sunday as it pulls in some drier air from the north. I’m not expecting complete clearing, but at least some sun may appear. The clouds will still remain in general control as we get to Monday through Wednesday, with another couple of weather systems to impact the region. First, another small low pressure area will drift up from the south and bring some additional rainfall by Tuesday. I was optimistic this may stay off to the south and east yesterday, but not so much now. And then a cold front will sag toward the region from the north on Wednesday with additional unsettled weather. However at that time we’ll still be on the mild side of the front. One thing we won’t be dealing with anytime during this 5-day period is harsh cold as that still remains well to our north.

TODAY: Cloudy. Brief rain showers northeastern MA / southeastern NH early. Rain overspreads the region this afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain this evening, ending overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Any fog thins out but clouds linger, and may break for sun at times in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

Trending colder. Two storm systems potentially impact the region with rain/mix/snow chances, one March 7 and the other on the March 9-10 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Drier weather favored early period. Unsettled weather returns mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

March opens up with a pleasant day as high pressure slips to our south. Gone are the harsh winds of yesterday, and while today will be breezy at times, it’ll be noticeably milder with plenty of sun, making it feel nice. The first weekend of the new month doesn’t hold as much niceness for us, but it won’t be all that bad either. Any sunshine we see this weekend will be generally limited to early Saturday and possibly Sunday midday and afternoon, though the Sunday sun chances are somewhat lower. We’ll also have to deal with a bout of wet weather at mid weekend, Saturday afternoon and evening, as a weak low pressure area drifts up via the Mid Atlantic, and passes just to our southeast. If we don’t get enough dry air pulled in behind this system on Sunday, the clouds will be stubborn to break and the sun chances will go by the boards. Early next week, another small and fairly weak low will hang around just to our south, but close enough to have influence on our region with lots of clouds the story again. I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of any precipitation early next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partial sunshine early, then cloudy. Periods of rain in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening. Areas of fog develop. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Any fog thins out but clouds linger, and may break for sun at times in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Highs 48-55, coolest at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Mild with rain chances March 6-7. Dry, somewhat colder weather March 8. Watching potential storm for the March 9-10 weekend which includes the chance of some frozen precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Drier weather favored early to mid period. Unsettled weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4)

On this Leap Day 2024 we have a one-day blast of the feel of winter with a combination of wind and cold. This air mass was delivered by the strong cold front that swept across there region late last evening with a rain squall after a day of gusty winds, rain showers, and mild air. But now it’s back to reality with an air mass some 20 to 25 degrees colder than yesterday and a wind chill making it feel even colder than that. We’ll also end up with some clouds passing quickly across the sky later this morning into this afternoon, and some of those may produce snow showers. These will be induced by moisture streaming eastward from the Great Lakes region. Tonight, the wind will slacken this evening but not completely diminish. However as a small area of high pressure slides to our south and then southeast by Friday, a shift of the wind to southwest will take place, and initiate a warm-up which will be notable on Friday with an approximate 10-degree temperature rise over today’s daytime highs. It will also be the weather pick of the next several days with a fair amount of sunshine. The weekend is going to feature a lot more cloudiness, especially Saturday when some rain is also likely to arrive as a small low pressure area drifts our way via the Mid Atlantic. I’m on the fence still with Sunday’s forecast. I’m pretty certain the rain threat will be gone, but I’m not so sure we clear out very much. I’m still going for some partial sun anyway, but clouds can very well be more stubborn. It will be a modestly mild first weekend of March though, either way. Not a lot of push to systems is expected early next week either and low pressure may lurk not far away, so Monday’s forecast leans to the cloudy side at this point, but holding off on much chance of any rain at this point.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing somewhat later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Good chance of rain, especially midday and afternoon. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Patchy fog. Lows 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partial sunshine possible, otherwise lots of clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Additional unsettled weather with low pressure in the region until about March 7 or 8 when a drier westerly air flow will return fair weather to the region. No temperature extremes indicated, but a colder trend late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Potential storm signal around March 10-11. Drier trend should follow that. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

A dynamic set-up is featured for the final 2 days of February, making it feel like spring then reminding you that winter is still here. A strong low pressure area passing to our north will drag a sharp cold front eastward toward the region today and across the WHW forecast area from west to east this evening. Ahead of this front comes mild air, a gusty wind, quite strong at times, and waves of rain showers. A final band of heavier rain should accompany the front and this is when some areas can see their strongest wind gusts. A rapid wind shift and temperature drop with the passage of the front may lead to the rain mixing with or changing to wet snow for a brief period of time before ending, but it could snow hard enough, especially in areas north of I-90 and west of I-95, for a quick slushy coating on some surfaces. With a temperature drop overnight, we’ll have to watch for icy areas by Thursday morning. If there’s some good news with this, it’s that a strong and gusty breeze and rapidly lowering dew point will help dry many surfaces before a freeze up can occur, but be aware just in case. Thursday itself will feel more like winter with temperatures well below what they peak at today, a gusty wind, and a sun/cloud mix. Additionally, some snow flurries may migrate into our region via the Great Lakes region. Winds settle down and any flurries end by Thursday night. High pressure slides south of the region Friday with fair, milder weather. Another low pressure area moves into the region on Saturday with a cloudy sky and a chance of some rain, but this system will be quite weak in comparison to the one passing through our region today. A sliver of dry air behind Saturday’s weak system should bring rain-free conditions Sunday but possibly some sunny intervals, though clouds may be stubborn.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Downpours with thunder possible. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH inland where gusts can exceed 40 MPH and 25-35 MPH coast where gusts can exceed 50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of a thunderstorm, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 25-32. Wind S 15-35 MPH, strongest coastal areas, higher gusts, shifting to W from west to east by late evening / overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing somewhat later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Patchy fog. Lows 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partial sunshine. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Additional unsettled weather with low pressure in the region until about March 7 when a drier westerly air flow will return fair weather to the region. No temperature extremes indicated, but a colder trend late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

Fair weather to start the period, additional unsettled weather opportunities mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

February has featured several mornings that started with heavy frost after a night of clear sky and light / calm wind. This morning is one of those for a good portion of the region, including right here in my own location. In fact, I’m starting to wonder if I’ve had more frost accumulation than snow accumulation this month. 😉 … Jokes aside, we have a very nice day ahead, despite an increase in cloud cover as we head through the afternoon. After a chilly early morning, temperatures will rebound nicely, with many areas cracking 50 by midday and areas away from the coast reaching well into the 50s by mid afternoon. Coastal communities will be on the cooler side as the wind will be light southeast to south – at least partially off the ocean water. Tonight, the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of an approaching cold front. This will continue through the day Wednesday too. Episodes of rain showers will occur both tonight and Wednesday. The cold front itself will not arrive until Wednesday evening when it’s due to sweep west to east across the region, accompanied by one final round of heavier rainfall. Some locations may see this rain end as a mix of precipitation or wet snow as cold air will be incoming very quickly as the front goes by. At most, a brief slushy accumulation of snow may occur on some surfaces mainly west and north of Boston Wednesday night before dry air arrives on a gusty, shifted wind. The final day of the month on Thursday (Leap Day) will feature a sun/cloud mix with a gusty wind and chilly air, made to feel colder by the wind. We welcome March on Friday with a fair and slightly milder day with less wind as high pressure sinks to the south of New England. This high will slide offshore and make way for a weak area of low pressure to lift northeastward from the Mid Atlantic toward southern New England, bringing clouds and possibly some wet weather back into the region for the beginning of the weekend on Saturday. There’s some disagreement in the medium range guidance as to the movement of this feature, so treat the outlook with a grain of salt until I can refine the timing / impact expectations.

TODAY: Sunshine fades later as clouds increase. Highs 48-53 coast, 53-58 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of a thunderstorm, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Optimistically calling for fair weather March 3 to finish off the first weekend of the new month, but additional unsettled weather from low pressure hanging around offshore / near the coast can occur before another trough from the west with additional wet weather sweeps eastward through the region. The period may end with dry, chilly weather and a stronger westerly air flow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

Fair weather to start the period, additional unsettled weather opportunities mid to late period. Temperatures above normal for the period, but may be a colder trend with time.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

Some quick and notable weather changes are on our menu over the next few days to round out the month of February and welcome in March too. It breaks down like this. First, a disturbance and warm front go through the region this morning with lots of clouds and a few inconsequential rain and snow showers, followed by the return of sunshine and a milder afternoon. The mild air will be dominant through Wednesday afternoon, and up to the arrival and passage of a strong cold front Wednesday evening, we’ll be in a robust southwesterly air flow. We’ll get to enjoy a fair amount of sun for at least part of Tuesday before clouds regain control thereafter. Rounds of rain showers are slated for Tuesday evening and off and on during Wednesday, but there can be some rain-free times Wednesday too. I’m just not expecting much in the way of any sunshine on Wednesday. The strongest round of precipitation – moderate to heavy showers and even a potential thunderstorm – comes on Wednesday evening just ahead of the cold front, which will sweep across the region fairly quickly. The temperature drop associated with this frontal passage may be quick enough that the rain ends as a mix of rain/snow or even a period of wet snow in some areas, but any accumulation would be limited. We will have to watch for the formation of ice on untreated surfaces that don’t dry out by Thursday morning, as the temperature will have fallen to near or below freezing by then, especially from the Boston / Providence areas westward. Dry air, a gusty wind, and temperatures above freezing (though still in the 30s) for much of the day Thursday will eliminate any icy patches. High pressure slides quickly to our south by Friday, with fair weather, a cold start, and a milder afternoon.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a few passing rain and/or snow showers morning followed by the return of abundant sunshine from west to east. Highs 45-52. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35, mildest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 50-57, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a good chance of rain showers. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of thunderstorms, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Watching for a quick, semi-sneaky low pressure area that can start the first weekend of March with at least cloudiness and potentially a bit of wet weather instead of the previously dry forecast, but the majority of the first weekend of March should end up rain-free with fairly mild temperatures. Additional refining of the weekend outlook will take place in coming updates. Another opportunity for unsettled weather may present itself by the middle to latter portion of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Fair weather is most likely from the early to mid portion of this period, with unsettled weather chances increasing later on. While the period as a whole is expected to see above normal temperatures, we may experience a chill-down before it’s over with colder air seeping southward from Canada.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25-29)

If you had to be outside early on this Sunday morning you felt one of the colder mornings we’ve had this winter – and we haven’t had all that many. As of 7:00 a.m., temperature readings range from 11 to 18 across the majority of the WHW forecast area, with slightly “milder” readings around 20 to the middle 20s across Cape Cod. The cold was due to the combination of a clear sky and nearly calm wind overnight, under a ridge of high pressure – the perfect radiational cooling set-up. Today, you’ll really be able to notice the increased sun angle as the bright sun helps with a nice temperature recovery, and lighter winds than we had yesterday make it far more pleasant to be outside. It won’t be until late in the day that we start to see some clouds appearing in the western sky, and this signals the next disturbance to pass through. This particular one is not very strong and will just bring a few rain and snow showers to the region during the first 6 to 9 hours of Monday before it moves out and is replaced by dry, milder air. The warm-up will then continue into the middle of the coming week, but with increasingly unsettled weather as a stronger south to southwest air flow arrives and another low pressure trough approaches. The greatest chances for wet weather come Tuesday night then off and on through Wednesday. Any appreciable sunshine that can occur between bouts of wet weather Wednesday may aid the temperature in making a run at 60 for some areas, especially away from the South Coast where a south and southwest wind passes over cool ocean water. We still have to nail down the timing, but a strong cold front is due to pass through from west to east sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday, accompanied by a heavier band of showers and possible thunderstorms, and initiating a wind shift and sharp temperature drop for the final (extra) day of the month as dry weather returns.

TODAY: Lots of sun but some clouds appear later in the day from the west. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, then SW 5-15 MPH late day.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Overnight rain and snow showers possible mainly along the South Coast with a few light snow showers possible to the north of there. Lows 24-31 in the evening, then a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Eastern half of WHW area starts the day with clouds and passing snow/rain showers, then lots of sun with passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures fall to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

The trend for the early days of March is for high pressure to be in control with dry weather and a moderating temperature trend for the few days and an increasing chance of unsettled weather toward the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

Higher chances for unsettled weather early to mid period followed by a return to fair weather. No major temperature anomalies indicated at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

We will have a dry final weekend of February. Some stubborn cloud cover will be around to start the day today but eventually the sun will take over as dry air wins out. Along with this will come a gusty wind making it feel colder than the already below normal temperatures. The wind comes courtesy of the airflow between low pressure that departed the region yesterday and high pressure that is approaching via the Great Lakes. This high pressure area will move over the region tonight, and while shutting down the wind it will also shove down the temperature under a clear sky with bright moonlight. The full moon actually occurred just after midnight today but still appears pretty full in the sky tonight. You can’t really notice it, but this is a mini moon aka the smallest looking full moon of the year because it is the full moon in which the moon is furthest away from the Earth. After a cold start on Sunday, with less wind and full sunshine well into the afternoon it will feel considerably less cold than today will despite only a modest rise in temperature over today. A quick moving disturbance will traverse the region late Sunday night through Monday morning, and may produce a few rain and snow showers near the South Coast with a quick snow flurry possible to the north. This system will lead milder air into the region as dry weather takes over again for the remainder of the day Monday, along with a gusty southwest breeze. The southwesterly air flow that is introduced on Monday will become more established Tuesday and Wednesday, transporting more mild air into the region, but the price we will pay for this will be episodes of wet weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. We may be able to salvage several hours of dry weather and at least partial sun on Wednesday while we are in this warmer southwesterly air flow. If that is the case, 60° is going to be within reach, except in coastal areas where a southwest wind comes off the water. You know what that means at this time of year and into the spring.

TODAY: Lots of clouds eventually give way to lots of sun. Highs 32-39 this morning, with a slow temperature drop midday on. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny through mid afternoon, then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Overnight rain and snow showers possible mainly along the South Coast with a few light snow showers possible to the north of there. Lows 24-31 in the evening, then a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds may produce a rain/snow shower in RI or southeastern MA, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4)

While there continues to be some uncertainty on timing, a strong cold front is expected to come through sometime on Leap Day including a band of rain showers and even possible thunderstorms. This boundary will initiate an abrupt wind shift and temperature drop as it goes by the region. I continue to lean toward a progressive scenario where the front moves well offshore quickly enough not to allow additional low pressure to come up and bring more unsettled weather. So the outlook for the first few days of March is for dry weather perhaps a ling chill to start and then a moderating trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

This remains a low confidence forecast. Best chance of unsettled weather mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Some wet weather will be with us today as a low pressure area passes by to the north and drags a slow-moving cold front across the region. A drying trend will begin this afternoon, progressing slowly from west to east, with an additional wave of low pressure on the front prolonging the rainfall across Cape Cod into this evening before it dries out there later tonight. The weekend will be dry and cold, with plenty of wind Saturday between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, and more tranquil weather by Sunday as high pressure moves over the region. This high will then progress out of the region Sunday night as a low pressure trough approaches and swings through the region late Sunday evening through early morning Monday. This system will produce a few snow showers, with rain or snow showers closer to the South Coast where temperatures will be marginal (liquid vs. frozen). The remainder of Monday will be dry and less chilly than the previous 2 days. When we get to the end of the 5-day period, there’s a little uncertainty on timing, but I’m expecting clouds to advance on Tuesday ahead of a larger scale trough, and wet weather may be here before Tuesday has concluded, though that timing may need to be adjusted in future forecasts.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of light fog this morning. Rain mainly north and west of Boston to start, progressing from I-95 eastward while areas to the west dry out later. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering rain over Cape Cod during the evening. Watch for areas of black ice where the ground doesn’t dry out quickly enough. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39 in the morning, with a slow temperature drop midday on. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny through early afternoon, then becoming variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers probable overnight, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Lows 24-31 in the evening, with a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds may produce a rain/snow shower in RI or southeastern MA, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

There’s some uncertainty on the timing of frontal boundaries, but leaning toward a warm front having passed by and a cold front still to the west allowing a mainly fair but windy and mild February 28, and a strong cold front passing by on Leap Day with rain showers and gusty, shifting winds. Details of this will be worked out in future forecast updates. Also, previously questioned whether or not additional low pressure might impact the region with a rain/snow threat to start March, but as of today’s update I am leaning toward a chilly but drier solution for the first few days of the month. Again this is not high confidence and still subject to change.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Low confidence outlook is for a dry start to the period, then looking at a potential longer duration unsettled weather event mid to late period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

High pressure’s grip on our region will loosen today. We start out with a calm and frosty morning for many, but some clouds have continued to blanket some coastal areas of MA from Cape Ann to the South Shore, and where the clouds were, radiational cooling was limited by the stratus blanket. Another cloud area expanded out of the mountains of western New England into north central MA and southwestern NH in the last couple of dark hours, slowing the temperature fall in those areas as well. During the day today as high pressure continues to drift further away from the region, and a low pressure trough approaches from the west, we can see additional areas of clouds but also areas of sunshine, and it will become milder than the last few days. A warm front will cross the region later tonight with a swath of precipitation, mainly light rain, but this may begin as a mix or a period of wet snow in some higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, but with inconsequential accumulation of only brief coatings possible on unpaved surfaces before anything that falls melts away. Wet weather will continue at times through midday across the area Friday as a cold front follows the warm front and a weak wave of low pressure ripples along it. I am still of the meteorological opinion that this front will pull offshore before the day is over and the low pressure wave will exit to the northeast, pulling in enough dry air for at least breaking clouds / partial clearing, especially from the I-95 belt west, so that the very end of the day Friday may see brighter sky, even a nice sunset potentially. Clouds linger longer into Friday night over Cape Cod as the front ambles further out to sea. Our weekend looks like a dry and cold one. A sun/cloud mix can be expected Saturday – a few passing fair weather clouds along with some patchy mid level clouds from a minor disturbance passing by. This will also be a breezy/windy day making it feel colder than it is. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night and Sunday. The set-up allows for radiational cooling Saturday night with quite a cold start to Sunday, but brighter, uninterrupted sun and less wind allowing it to feel less harsh during the day. A weak trough will whistle through the region Monday morning (based on current expected timing). This feature may produce a quick passing snow shower, otherwise should lead to a generally dry day with seasonable temperatures.

TODAY: Areas of clouds but still plenty of sunshine for most of the region. Highs 40-47. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Late evening / overnight periods of rain but likely beginning as snow north central MA and southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers through early afternoon. Additional rain showers possible RI / southeastern MA into late afternoon. Breaking clouds possible especially west of I-95 late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. An early morning snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

A southwesterly air flow becomes established into the middle of next week with a couple rounds of wet weather (timing TBD), culminating in a stronger cold frontal passage sometime on Leap Day (February 29). Uncertainty whether or not we go right to dry, colder weather March 1-2 or if a wave of low pressure comes up along the offshore frontal boundary to bring a precipitation threat.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Additional unsettled weather potential mid to late period which can include a frozen precipitation threat as temperatures may end up somewhat colder than modeled by medium range guidance. This is not a high confidence outlook however.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Before we go into the outlook for the next 5 days, let’s take a look at some current weather that’s quite interesting. As you know, the forecast for overnight was for generally calm conditions under a clear sky, setting up radiational cooling. This was optimized for some places in southeastern MA, such as Falmouth, Taunton, and Martha’s Vineyard. The airport MVY sits in the middle of the island in a relative low spot. They were already as 15 degrees at 1 a.m. and have since dropped further to 12, with a few point of just 9, as the wind has continued to stay calm there. Meanwhile, just across the water at Nantucket, with a light wind blowing, they are a dozen + 1 warmer at 25. Up to Boston, as of 6 a.m. they sit at 26 with a northerly breeze passing over relatively warmer ocean water before it reaches the temperature sensor. As a result, their dew point is also quite a bit higher at 17, compared to Martha’s Vineyard’s single digit dp. As a segue to the outlook, I’ll mention that the same ocean water will play a role in keeping coastal areas cooler than inland areas as we move through the day today. High pressure nudging its way toward southeastern Canada will deliver a light easterly air flow to the region, and as the sun warms the land more efficiently, that easterly flow will keep the coastal areas cooler, thanks to ocean water temperatures now near to a little below 40 degrees. We’re already seeing some low clouds from the ocean start to move into Cape Cod and other eastern coastal areas, and these will be around at times along the coastal plain during the day today while inland areas see more sunshine. Additionally, some high, thin clouds are fanning up from the south. These are from a large ocean storm that, while it looks a bit threatening on the weather map, will stay offshore to our east and southeast before moving out to sea. Our next round of unsettled weather is going to come from the west, in the form of a trough of low pressure aloft and two surface lows. The first will travel to our northwest Thursday night and early Friday, dragging a warm front through the region. This front will send a batch of precipitation through the region late Thursday night and early Friday – mainly in the form of rain though some brief wet snow may occur in higher elevations from north central MA through southwestern NH as the air should be just cold enough to support it. A second low pressure wave will move up an approaching cold front during the day Friday to produce a couple rounds of rain showers. Depending on the speed of this wave, we may or may not start to see a clearing process, at least to the west, before the day is over. Areas west of I-95 would stand the greatest chance of being post-rain and seeing breaking clouds before nightfall. But in general, plan on an unsettled day Friday. This will be a fairly light event, with precipitation amounts of generally under 0.50 inch expected. The weekend looks like a dry one. Saturday will feature a gusty breeze and will by the colder of the 2 days as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and drags colder air in from Canada between itself and departing low pressure. High pressure moves over the region Saturday night into Sunday. This sets up a cold Saturday night with another clear sky / light wind combination. Sunday will feature plenty of sun and a modest warm-up after a cold start.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds favoring the eastern coastal plain. More sunshine elsewhere but filtered at times by some high cloudiness. Highs 36-43, coolest in coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers, may begin as mix/snow showers some interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers through mid afternoon. Breaking clouds possible especially west of I-95 late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

A quick-moving trough may bring a few snow showers to the region February 26. A southwesterly flow brings a milder trend but also the chance of a couple rounds of rain showers from later February 27 through early February 29 before a wind shift to west or northwest brings dry, colder weather for late period. Details of low pressure / frontal timing will need to be fine-tuned.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

The first half of the period is most likely to feature dry weather, with the latter half of the period more likely to feature unsettled weather. Variable temperatures, typical for this time of year, but should average somewhat above normal for the period overall.