Friday February 23 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Some wet weather will be with us today as a low pressure area passes by to the north and drags a slow-moving cold front across the region. A drying trend will begin this afternoon, progressing slowly from west to east, with an additional wave of low pressure on the front prolonging the rainfall across Cape Cod into this evening before it dries out there later tonight. The weekend will be dry and cold, with plenty of wind Saturday between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, and more tranquil weather by Sunday as high pressure moves over the region. This high will then progress out of the region Sunday night as a low pressure trough approaches and swings through the region late Sunday evening through early morning Monday. This system will produce a few snow showers, with rain or snow showers closer to the South Coast where temperatures will be marginal (liquid vs. frozen). The remainder of Monday will be dry and less chilly than the previous 2 days. When we get to the end of the 5-day period, there’s a little uncertainty on timing, but I’m expecting clouds to advance on Tuesday ahead of a larger scale trough, and wet weather may be here before Tuesday has concluded, though that timing may need to be adjusted in future forecasts.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of light fog this morning. Rain mainly north and west of Boston to start, progressing from I-95 eastward while areas to the west dry out later. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering rain over Cape Cod during the evening. Watch for areas of black ice where the ground doesn’t dry out quickly enough. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39 in the morning, with a slow temperature drop midday on. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny through early afternoon, then becoming variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers probable overnight, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Lows 24-31 in the evening, with a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds may produce a rain/snow shower in RI or southeastern MA, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

There’s some uncertainty on the timing of frontal boundaries, but leaning toward a warm front having passed by and a cold front still to the west allowing a mainly fair but windy and mild February 28, and a strong cold front passing by on Leap Day with rain showers and gusty, shifting winds. Details of this will be worked out in future forecast updates. Also, previously questioned whether or not additional low pressure might impact the region with a rain/snow threat to start March, but as of today’s update I am leaning toward a chilly but drier solution for the first few days of the month. Again this is not high confidence and still subject to change.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Low confidence outlook is for a dry start to the period, then looking at a potential longer duration unsettled weather event mid to late period.

67 thoughts on “Friday February 23 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  3. Thanks TK. 34F here this morning with dense fog and 100% snow cover. Had mostly light rain last night that mixed with wet snow. No new accumulation but had very little melting of the existing snow cover.

              1. Tell you one thing I am beyond grateful as everyone here at BI Boston has been amazing as she is getting phenomenal care , I really mean phenomenal!!

  8. JPD …saw your comment at end of yesterday’s blog. And chuckled. I would have bet that would be the determination. No matter the reason. Color me very skeptical where our government is concerned.

    1. 🙂 🙂
      pretty piss-poor software release. One would think that
      it would be thoroughly tested! But me thinks someone took
      a shortcut and look what happened!
      SHAMEFUL!!!!!

  9. Eric last night

    Latest snow updated for Boston. No chances of anything significant lurking until mid-March at the earliest. If it doesn’t snow about a foot between mid-March and April, it will be the first time on record Boston has had consecutive winters with <20" of snow (12.4" last year)

    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1760805436767232334?s=61

    Eric last night with Pete responding. Blooms possibly being out again too early

    https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1760729644754718768?s=61

  12. Hadi may have timed his ski vacation well. As I had mentioned a few weeks ago, a sliver of colder air from the east would move into Central Europe and the alps by the end of this month. That has happened, at least at the higher elevations. It’s not particularly cold, but just enough to produce snow in the mountains. As areas of low pressure bump into the colder air this has produced plentiful snowfall in the mountains of Austria, Switzerland, France, and Italy.

    Scandinavia remains relatively cold. It’s been locked in for nearly 3 months. A bonanza season there for snow and cold.

    This said, most of Western Europe and the British Isles remain milder than average (a theme all winter), which will continue despite a brief colder interlude early next week

    1. Where it’s been, it’s been.

      Same as last summer. Dry / fiery Canada. Wet, cloudy US Northeast.

      HTE.

      1. To add one more: wet/cold US West. This winter and last, with two totally different ENSO regimes.

        Where it’s been, it’s been. Blocking patterns. HTE, combined with a globally warmed background state.

        Thanks TK!

    2. Also, the medium range guidance for Europe forecast the ski vacation pattern well in advance. I looked at that forecast a while ago.

    3. Thanks.

      Saw that. The French alps are getting hit hard as we speak. Many days of snow, the elevation is helping for due.

    2. Finding ourselves with a “problem” like this a quarter of the way through the 21st century is comical and sad at the same time.

    3. If you are expecting a tax return, there are places that will lend you the return amount, if that would be enough?

      Other than that, I don’t have any suggestions, sorry.

      1. Smart. Going to go with this idea because I think I know how to do that. I knew someone here would have an idea!

  20. Thanks TK. Glad to see the pace of melting picking up. It was a bit slow this week until the rain and warmer temps today. Still more snow than Bar Harbor Maine where I was earlier this week. We had to hike instead of snowshoe but still got some gorgeous views even in the very cold temps

  22. Well the GDPS has decided that Boston will welcome March with a double-digit snowfall on the first of the month. 😉

    One thing I will say, while I’m not “going for that” scenario at this time, I have been keeping an eye on some little hints that something sneaky could try to take place in there. One thing is for sure, there is NOTHING that indicates there is no shot at all of wintry weather starting just several days from now. There are several scenarios that are plausible that could lead to something taking place WITHIN 10 days.

    1. Possibly true but every month it’s pushed out . It won’t happen next week as it will be in the 50s I believe. My opinion Boston will not see any big snow storm until next winter

      1. What happened before has no bearing on what I’m looking at right now. 🙂

        And yes, we should have 2 days of 50+ next week, followed by a couple days where it may stay below freezing all day in most of the region.

        And you haven’t heard from me “it’s coming soon, it’s coming soon” all winter. In fact, other than February being milder than forecast, the winter forecast I made in November has pretty much verified. 😉

        If you recall, I mentioned there was a large wildcard in the impact from the HT volcano. It’s a big factor this winter. Bigger than I even thought it would be. Future studies are going to reveal some remarkable things. Mark my words.

    2. Plow going in back of garage tomorrow. Mark, Vicki and Hadi are the scorekeepers.

      The measure is 3″ or more any single event in Holden Ma. rest of season and I do walk of shame here on this blog.

      If I win, I want bows from anyone who feels compelled.

      I feel very good about winning this.

      Love you all!

      -W

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