DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

Down the home stretch of May 2023 we go with a dry stretch to go with it. This is driven by a Rex block with a high pressure ridge over the Northeast and low pressure trough over the Southeast. The position of surface high pressure and resultant predominant wind direction helps determine day to day temperatures in this dry weather pattern which encompasses Memorial Day Weekend in its entirety and the final 2 days of the month of May also. Today’s weather will feature 100% sunshine and a warm-up over yesterday, with the cooler spot being along the beaches where a sea breeze develops. Sunday will be the warmest day region-wide with most areas in the 80s for high temps, but the exception this time will be a cooler South Coast due to a southwesterly wind. A cold front will come through without fanfare Sunday night and set up a broad scale north to northeast flow across the region with a significantly cooler Memorial Day. Some high clouds may fan across our southern sky from low pressure well to the south Sunday and Monday, and a few lower clouds from increased moisture on the southwesterly wind may visit parts of the South Coast during Sunday into Sunday night before they get pushed out by Monday. A Canadian high pressure area will then sink slowly southward Tuesday-Wednesday with a slow warm-up.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

Large scale pattern Rex block breaks down and is replaced by an omega block (trough West Coast, ridge upper Midwest and central Canada, trough Canadian Maritimes). This puts our region into a northwesterly air flow and we see a brief spike in temperature to start June as high pressure at the surface shifts to the south. After this a cold front drops out of Canada bringing a shot at a shower or thunderstorm June 2 and a cool-down for the June 3-4 weekend but with dry weather. Shower threat may return late period as a low pressure trough takes more control and a disturbance moves in, but this is lower confidence since it’s much further out in time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Large scale pattern retrogression is indicated with high pressure moving westward from the central US/Canada into the Rockies while a low pressure trough drifts westward from the Canadian Maritimes into Quebec / Ontario and the US Northeast / Great Lakes. This pattern for our area would be cooler than average and present some chance of shower activity occurring, not necessarily a “rainy” pattern, but a little more unsettled than what we’ve seen.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

This 5 day forecast covers the “extended” Memorial Day Weekend for those using today and/or Tuesday as extra(s), and I can’t find any raindrops to talk about. It’s going to be dry for the stretch for all travel, outdoor activity, and of course the Memorial Day parades and services that take place in many locations. The weather pattern will be dominated by high pressure, with our temperatures each day determined by high position and resultant wind direction. We start with a chilly morning today with high pressure over us after a night of radiational cooling and recover to the 60s today with a cooler coastal sea breeze. The warm-up continues for Saturday and Sunday with 70s for most areas Saturday and 80+ high temps for many for Sunday. But an exception for Sunday will be a cooler South Coast with a southwesterly air flow. A back-door cold front sneaks through the region Sunday night and early Monday and replaces that air flow with a northeast to east one Monday and Tuesday with a cooling trend. I already spoke of no rain, but we’ll also be hard pressed to find much in the way of cloud cover too during these days. A few clouds may skirt southeastern NH and northeastern MA for a brief time today and a few fair-weather clouds can pop up in the blue sky (absent of wildfire smoke) elsewhere today. I think 100% sun is our Saturday. Sunday may see a few lower clouds flirt with the South Coast due to the southwesterly air flow, and it is later Sunday and/or Monday into Tuesday when we could see some Canadian wildfire smoke mixing back into our air aloft. Also some high clouds from low pressure far to our south may fan across the southern sky by Monday and Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy shallow fog in valleys/swamps/bogs. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

High pressure sinks back to the south May 31 / June 1 with fair weather and a warm-up. Cold front from Canada brings a shower or thunderstorm threat on June 2 followed by fair and cooler weather for the June 3-4 weekend based on the current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Similar pattern. Tries to warm up after a cool start – maybe with some unsettled weather, before another Canadian high delivers the cool later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

A cooler and breezy late May day is in store for us today with upper level low pressure over northern Maine & nearby southeastern Canada, and us sitting on the western side of its cold pool, which will trigger clouds at times. There will also be plenty of sun, especially this morning – an exception being the MA South Shore to South Coast where a lot of clouds are around to start the day, clear out, then are replaced by diurnal cloud development later, so a bit of a sunshine sandwich for that region. All-in-all, really not a bad spring day. High pressure noses into the region tonight, settling the wind down and setting up a strong radiational cooling night. This high pressure arrival is the start of a long visit that will keep our region dry right through the Memorial Day Weekend into next week. The general trend is a warm-up, but there will be days that coastal areas are more prone to stronger cooling from sea breezes (Saturday and Monday). The Canadian wildfire smoke plume has once again been pushed to the south and we should be free of that for a couple days before some of it tries to sneak back into our sky possibly before the end of the long weekend…

TODAY: Lots of clouds early MA South Shore / South Coast with sun elsewhere, then a sun/cloud mix evolving from north to south midday on. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early evening, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

An upper level trough brings the slightest chance for a pop up shower May 30 and/or May 31, but leaning dry with temperatures close to normal. Generally dry with a warm-up into the first few days of June with an approaching front bringing the chance of a shower or t-storm end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

Leaning toward a cool-down early in the period due to a push from Canadian high pressure – a fairly common thing in this particular pattern. Temperature moderation mid to late period may come with some unsettled weather, but still not seeing any big rain events or any significant heat.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

Today is interruption day in our latest stretch of dry weather. It will take place when a sharp cold front pushes through from north northwest to south southeast later today, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to the region, highest coverage from southern NH into northern MA but coverage dropping off to the south as the support and moisture will start to run out. What won’t run out is the push of cooler air behind the front for later tonight and tomorrow, but first we get a brief warm-up today. Exception: South Coast is cooler today due to a pre-frontal southerly wind off the ocean. Also, what’s become a familiar site, the Canadian wildfire smoke, will once again be in our sky today, filtering the sun before the front’s clouds arrive. This smoke plume will be pushed south of the region Thursday, but some cold air stratocumulus clouds may blot the sun out instead at times as a gusty northerly breeze blows. As we head through Friday and into the Memorial Day Weekend, we’ll see high pressure bringing fair weather to the region with a gradual warm-up, but coastal areas can still see some sea breeze development Friday and Saturday, while by Sunday a more established southerly wind would be warmer for all except the South Coast.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun into afternoon before clouds advance northwest to southeast followed by widespread showers and slight thunder chance mid to late afternoon southern NH / north central MA and late afternoon to early evening southeastward from there but becoming less widespread. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW in southern NH and northern MA by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Clouds early with lingering showers South Coast region, otherwise clearing, but some clouds may return from north to south late. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to NW-N 5-15 MPH through the rest of the region.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Dry weather holds for Memorial Day (May 29) with warmest inland and a cooling sea breeze at the coast with high pressure holding over the region. An upper trough brings the chance of a few pop up showers May 30 and 31. Fair and seasonable weather is expected for the first couple days of June as high pressure moves back in.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

High pressure will be the main player at the the surface while a weak upper trough dominates. The mildest weather should occur early period, but Canadian high pressure pushes cooler air into the region for mid period, maybe with a shower threat at transition time, before warmer air tries to make a come-back with clouds and a shower chance toward late period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

This update carries very little change in the thought process applied to yesterday’s. We’ll have mainly dry weather during the next 5 days, including the start of the Memorial Day Weekend. The only interruption will be a period of rain along a sharp cold front passing through late Wednesday. Before that, a continued easterly flow keeps eastern coastal areas coolest today, and while a southerly wind warms much of the region tomorrow, the South Coast will be coolest. After the front goes by, another Canadian high delivers a fresh cool air mass on a north wind Thursday. By Friday/Saturday, high pressure builds over the region, with a more variable wind leaving the coast vulnerable to sea breezes while it’s milder to warmer inland, but with nice weather heading into the holiday weekend! Backing up slightly, we’ll still be seeing mid to high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada filtering the sun that we have into Wednesday (before clouds arrive anyway). This smoke plume will get pushed to our south by Thursday, and we’ll have to watch to see if it sneaks back in late week.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 64-71, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then clouds advancing northwest to southeast. Showers crossing much of the region northwest to southeast late afternoon and evening, most coverage to the north and west, less to the southeast. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from northwest to southeast late afternoon on.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

A little more confident today that we see generally dry weather for the balance of Memorial Day Weekend (May 28-29) with low pressure staying well to our south, and upper level low pressure triggering diurnal showers over the mountains to our north. Will continue to watch these days closely. Prognosticating upper level low pressure to be in our area and a disturbance or two moving by with a couple shower threats May 30-31. High pressure builds in at the end of the period to start June fair and mild.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

High pressure should be the main player at the the surface while a weak upper trough dominates. The mildest weather should occur early period, but watching Canadian high pressure yet again to possibly deliver a decent cool shot mid or late period. Not sure if a shower threat is involved in that transition quite yet, but not seeing any big rain events or early heat threats.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

The region had a split weekend, with 1-3 inches of beneficial rain Saturday and a return to dry weather Sunday. If you were paying attention, the sun went red on us just before setting last night as another wildfire smoke plume approached the region from western Canada via the Great Lakes. This smoke will be around to filter our sunshine early this week, but the air will be on the cool side with high pressure centered north of our region. This will create a broad onshore flow for the region and of course the coastal areas will be coolest as a result. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the high will shift southeastward and set up a milder southerly wind here, but on Wednesday that means the South Coast will be coolest in the region as the wind will come directly off the water there. Our only shot of rain during the next 5 days comes Wednesday afternoon and evening in the form of a band of showers along a sharp cold front. This front will be moving southward out of eastern Canada and pass rather swiftly through the region. High pressure building toward and into the region Thursday-Friday will return dry and cooler weather to the region.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 61-68, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft otherwise clear. Lows 43-50. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 64-71, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then clouds advancing northwest to southeast. Showers crossing much of the region northwest to southeast late afternoon and evening, most coverage to the north and west, less to the southeast. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from northwest to southeast late afternoon on.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Memorial Day Weekend (May 27-29) carries some forecast uncertainty. Current thoughts are that low pressure to the south will stay far enough to the south to avoid direct impact, and upper level low pressure will impact areas to our north with diurnal shower chances, leaving our region dry with a slow warming trend, but this is not a high confidence forecast, so check for updates through the week. May 30-31 may carry a shower chance with a trough of low pressure in the region and a disturbance or two passing through.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

General pattern dry but one or two brief shower chances with disturbances passing by as a weak upper trough will be the main feature in the region. Temperatures near normal – no heat foreseen.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

After some beneficial rainfall yesterday, it’s back to the dry regime again. The cold front is offshore, but in New England style we’ll be a little milder than yesterday behind it as we replace a moist southerly air flow with a drying westerly one, which results in downslope warming. We’ll have some cloudiness to contend with but eventually the sun will win out later today. Cooler air does arrive for early in the week as high pressure to the north sends a broad scale onshore flow into the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure slips to the east and a warmer southerly air flow arrives Wednesday, but that warm-up will be short-lived as a sharp cold front will drop out of Canada to bring our only risk of wet weather during the next 5 days on Wednesday evening in the form of showers. This leads to a cool-down for Thursday with more dry weather.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a trend to more sun later. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH..

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day showers possible. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

Guidance has been amusing to look at during the last couple of days with two medium range models flipping the forecast of high pressure and a warm-up for Memorial Day Weekend to one of low pressure moving into the region with unsettled weather, while another model has kept it the same as previously – dry, warming up. The most recent guidance set gets basically 3 different forecasts. What I am eyeing at this point as we head from mid week into and through Memorial Day Weekend and to the penultimate day of May is a tendency for a trough to want to be in place, but one that would just mean the potential for a couple pop-up showers with colder air aloft. This is a (cautiously) optimistic forecast compared to recent guidance trends but one I will go with for now, leaving room for adjustment as the time period draws closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

With low confidence in the 6-10 day period, you can’t really rebound to higher confidence in the 11-15, so for now I’ll continue to lean to the drier regime winning, but a tendency for Canadian cooling to be readily available to move in.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

A kind-of-split weekend. We don’t lose all of our Saturday to wet weather. Most of our morning is dry, though by later this morning some showers can certainly be occurring in the South Coast region. The bulk of the shower activity outside of one tongue of moisture moving across the region this afternoon will occur tonight with the passage of a cold front, when some heavier downpours can occur and there is even the risk of some thunder. However, as is sometimes the case, this cold front will not be followed by immediate cooling, and Sunday, while carrying a fair amount of clouds at times, will be a fairly mild day with a drying downsloping westerly wind. Cooler air does arrive by Monday with more of a broad scale onshore flow developing with high pressure to our north. This high settles across the region with a more tranquil Tuesday. When we get to Wednesday, I’ve completely abandoned the notion of any moisture sneaking up from low pressure to the south, and most of the day will be dry as it looks now, but a cold front will approach from the northwest and may bring showers before that day is over – of course dependent on timing which is far from highly certain out that many days.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon with isolated to scattered showers possible anywhere else. Highs 61-68, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day showers possible. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

High pressure is expected to dominate the weather from the middle of the week right into and through the entire Memorial Day Weekend with temperatures starting out seasonable to slightly cooler than normal then moderating to above normal. Moderately confident that upper level low pressure down the Atlantic Coast stays there but will obviously monitor. We’ve seen fair weather outlooks this far in advance turn around on us before and in weather, that kind of history can repeat itself.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Looking for a trough and some unsettled weather potential to end May, and a return to fair weather and a seasonable weather pattern to begin June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Today will look a little more like summer again due to the smoky haze in the sky from the ongoing Canadian wildfires, and we’ll warm up a little more after our midweek cool spell as we get a southerly wind going too, but keep in mind that a southerly wind is a direct ocean breeze on the South Coast, so it will be cooler there than the remainder of the region. The weekend is kind of a split, with an unsettled Saturday and improvement Sunday. On Saturday we’ll be in the southerly air flow but this time with more moisture involved in the way of a mainly cloudy sky. One swath of moisture will approach from the south while a trough and cold front move our way from the west. My thoughts are similar to what I wrote yesterday in that I think the initial area of showers from southern moisture will peel off to the east, clipping Cape Cod mostly, and a hang back area being captured by the front from the west, helping to give most of the region its showery weather later in the day Saturday and Saturday evening/night, lingering into very early Sunday as the frontal boundary reaches the coast then pushes offshore. This sets up a drier day for Sunday, although it will be quite mild with a drying westerly wind behind the front and the cooler air lagging somewhat. High pressure should hang to the north Monday with more of an easterly wind setting up and that will end up a cooler day as a result. With high pressure more atop the region Tuesday we’ll be fair with light wind but coastal sea breeze can easily get going, keeping that area coolest.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun with patchy clouds. Highs 67-74 except 60-67 immediate South Coast / Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon. Showers arrive west to east late-day / evening. Highs 62-69, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Still watching low pressure to the south in case it comes further north than guidance says early in the period, otherwise looks like high pressure wants to dominate with one front sneaking down to cool the region off prior to next weekend before a warm-up begins.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Current call is for fair weather to hold through Memorial Day (May 29) before a system from that west brings a shower threat to end the month. Fair, seasonable start to June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)

A cold start this morning will turn around quickly today with a decent temperature rise off morning lows which landed right in the expected range (upper 20s in coldest spots like Taunton, 30s in most areas, and lower 40s in urban centers like downtown Boston). Some locations (Taunton for example again), can rise well over 30 degrees today to their high temp, while others (Boston) will have a smaller “diurnal” – the term that refers to the difference between the morning low and afternoon high temps. Typical springtime in New England though as this is the season we see this most. Folks in southern portions of the WHW forecast area (south central to southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI) awake to a hazier sky due to a plume of wildfire smoke mixed with some high clouds carried in by the upper winds, while areas to the north and northeast have a clearer sky and brighter sun to start, but more of that smoke may make its way in from the northwest as the day goes on, so we may end up with more of a hazy look to the sky for most areas by day’s end. Other than some smoke aloft it will be a clear night tonight, but with an increasing dew point on a more southerly air flow, despite fairly light wind we won’t be able to chill down like last night, and this will lead to a warmer day tomorrow still with a fair amount of sun despite some additional mid to high altitude smoke and additional cloud cover. This leads us to a more complex outlook for the weekend. Saturday, we’ll be watching the approach of two systems. The first is a trough and frontal system from the west, the second a weak low pressure area moving north northeastward from the Middle Atlantic coastal area. Current thoughts are that the moisture from the second system will split, with part 1 peeling off to the east to possibly clip Cape Cod with some wet weather during the day Saturday, favoring the afternoon, and part 2 getting caught up in the approaching frontal system from the west, which will bring the most widespread showers to the region as a whole Saturday evening and night, then exiting off the coast during early Sunday morning. This will set up a drier finish to the weekend, but we may still have at least some cloudiness around Sunday as colder air moves back in aloft while the surface is slower to cool down and dry out. By Monday, Canadian high pressure will be back with fair, cooler weather.

TODAY: Sunshine, but filtered by high clouds and some high altitude smoke in southern areas early and then again from west to east by later in the day. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, then W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except some smoke aloft. Lows 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud/smoke aloft mix. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon. Showers arrive west to east late-day / evening. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 50-57. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

Watch for a potential sneaky system with a wet weather threat in the May 24-26 window, otherwise dry weather should dominate the beginning and end of the period, and much of the period of the unsettled weather fails to materialize.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

The middle and end of the Memorial Day Weekend should be dry and warmer followed by the potential for some showery weather to close out May, and a return to fair weather to start the month of June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure will dominate our weather for the next 3 days, but with different weather based on the high’s center and interaction with other systems. Today’s windy and cool with the high center to our west and northwest and a strong cold front just having gone by, with low pressure to our northeast. There are some clouds near the eastern coast that will move off, and sun will dominate otherwise for a brief before we see diurnal cloud development and more of a sun/cloud mix. These clouds clear out and the wind begins to drop off tonight as high pressure’s center nudges closer, and these conditions will promote radiational cooling, with many areas (except urban centers) falling into the 30s with some frost forming. Cold spots of the interior can fall below freezing, threatening some early agricultural development. We do rebound nicely Thursday afternoon with less wind and full sun, and as high pressure shifts off the coast by Friday we continue a warm-up. For several days I’ve been eyeing potential / probable unsettled weather for a portion of the weekend, and as of this time I feel it will play out like this. A trough swings into and through the region from west to east during the course of the weekend. At the surface, a cold front approaches Saturday, while a tongue of subtropical moisture makes a run at us from the south. Current thought is that a lot of that subtropical moisture misses us just to the east, but may bring some wet weather to Cape Cod during Saturday, while the rest of us see showers from the cold front moving through Saturday evening / night. That front that moves offshore and Sunday we return to dry weather but breezy and cooler conditions. I’ll monitor and tweak this as/if necessary.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday hours. Chance of showers later in the day mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

High pressure in control with fair weather early in the period. Watching one low to the south and a trough from the west with potential unsettled weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

High pressure returns with fair weather, a cool start then a warming trend for Memorial Day Weekend (May 27-29). Next trough may bring unsettled weather back to the region for the last couple days of the month.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

A combination of warm advection cloud cover and Canadian wildfire smoke has our sky a hazy grey to start the day today, but we’ll break into some filtered sun at times midday and beyond, and it’ll warm up nicely, with many areas making a run at 80 for high temps, along with a gusty wind. This dry and windy combo also has our brush fire danger quite elevated. Any brushfires can spread rapidly on a day like today. This will also be the case tomorrow, regarding the fire threat, but the weather will be much different. A cold front sweeps through the region from north to south tonight, with a threat of a brief shower at most, and it’s right back to dry weather with a gusty wind and temperatures barely cracking 60 Wednesday. As high pressure builds over the region and the wind drops off at night, radiational cooling will allow the temperature to drop below 40 in many areas, exception urban centers, and even blow freezing in normal cold spots. The threat of frost and isolated freeze is there for early Thursday. Temperatures rebound by about 30 to 35 degrees during the day Thursday though, so the chill will be gone by the time we reach afternoon under plenty of sunshine and a sky that should be devoid of wildfire smoke, presenting as a more cobalt blue. High pressure will bring fair, warmer weather for Friday before a trough approaches Saturday with an increase in cloud cover but continued mild to warm air. Current expecting timing on the next unsettled weather event brings a shower threat by Saturday evening.

TODAY: Smoke aloft while clouds give way to hazy sun at times. Highs 74-81. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts from north to south.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by evening. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Cooling trend with dry weather returning May 21 and continuing May 22, then a slight warm-up preceding a rain chance and cool-down later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Unsettled weather may start and end the period, and current cautiously optimistic timing suggests a dry Memorial Day Weekend with a cool start then a warming trend.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

A dry stretch of weather will continue through the next 5 days, with only one shower threat, and a minor one at that, being with the passage of a strong cold front Tuesday night. The front will be strong, but there will be little moisture to work with. That front is part of a pattern that while dry, will bring some temperature changes, most notably a shot of chilly air at mid week that culminates in the chance of frost and even some freezing that can impact early agricultural development Wednesday night / early Thursday morning, so farmers and local gardeners take note and monitor! Before that, we have a cool start and warmer afternoon today as high pressure shifts to the south, a warmer day Tuesday ahead of the cold front. After the chill-down we rebound again to warmer weather by Friday. So strap in, it’s temperature roller coaster time! Also another reminder of the high brush fire danger this week due to dry weather and periods of windy weather.

TODAY: Sunniest morning, then a cloud-sun sky share during the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Still have to work out the timing of a frontal system moving through with a shower threat some time during the May 20-21 weekend, and whether or not a surge of additional moisture will make its way up from the south. Fair weather follows early next week, but rain chances return by mid next week. Warmest early period, then a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Additional unsettled weather is possible early in the period, then a return to dry weather is expected heading into the Memorial Day Weekend. Variable temperatures, coolest at first then warming.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

Dry times continue. You may recall some number of days ago when this period of time was further out, I prognosticated a dry pattern with temperatures dependent on wind direction. Well, here we go with that. Today’s going to be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday on a fresh northerly breeze behind a cold front that went through otherwise unnoticed. But still a very nice Sunday for Mother’s Day, and I wish a happy one to all moms reading this! Some high cloudiness may filter the sun at times today, this being the northern edge of a heavier cloud shield to our south as well as some streaming in via the Great Lakes region. A few fair-weather cumulus clouds may also pop up during the day. The Canadian high pressure area that delivered the brief cool shot will slip southward and turn the wind back to west and southwest Monday and Tuesday, when we’ll experience a warm up. Another cold front dives out of Canada and crosses our region with no more than a brief shower Tuesday evening, and puts us back into a cool air mass for Wednesday and early Thursday, but the next temperature rebound occurs quickly by Thursday afternoon as our dry weather / up-and-down temperature pattern continues. Of note, while leaf-out somewhat mitigates brush fire danger, it’s still somewhat present due to the dry weather and often breezy conditions. Use extreme caution with any open flame or anything outside that can spark a brush fire. They can spread quickly!

TODAY: Partly cloudy but still plenty of sun. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52 but may be a touch cooler in normal chilly spots. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early but diminishing.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

The warm up extends into the end of the week with fair weather on May 19. Current timing suggests a cold front will swing through the region early in the May 20-21 weekend with a quick shower threat and a return to seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather for the balance of the weekend, then continued dry weather and a warm-up early the following week (May 22-23).

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

The first part of this period looks a little wetter and cooler with a trough in the region, but we may quickly return to a dry regime right after that.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

We’re back in a dry pattern, which isn’t great agriculturally should it continue, but in the short term it does mean a really nice weekend! As previously noted, there will be some clouds around, especially in our southern sky during the first half of today, and a few more clouds may sail across the sky later today or this evening with a cold front passing by. But this front will pass by mainly dry, and will only serve to bring cooler air in for Mother’s Day when highs will be in the 60s after today’s 70+ in most areas. High pressure sinks to the south and we stay dry but warm up early next week, Monday into Tuesday. It’s only Tuesday evening that a brief shower may accompany the next cold front that brings in the next shot of cool air for Wednesday.

TODAY: Clouds over the MA/RI/CT sky give way to more sun but a brief sprinkle may occur South Coast early. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Similar to the pattern preceding, overall pattern looks on the dry side. Warming up after a cool start to the period. Frontal system swings through looking like the early part of the May 20-21 weekend, a quick cool-down following it.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

This 5-day period may feature more of a low pressure trough governing the pattern in our region and a better chance of some wet weather at times along with a cooling trend overall.