Well here is my attempt to foretell the general weather patterns and as a result the temperature, precipitation, and of course, snowfall outlook for the winter season upcoming. Keep in mind that while winter is defined at least 2 ways, meteorologically December 1 – February 28 (or 29), and astronomically from the winter solstice to the vernal equinox, there is no real hard and solid boundary to the start or end of any season when it comes to the sensible weather we most expect in it. We can have warm rainy winter days that make you think of May, or a mid to late spring blast of cold and snow, a chilly ocean wind and low overcast in summer making you think it’s April. You get the idea. The boundaries are fuzzy, but the overall seasons define themselves in the variety of weather they produce, most of which fits into the “normal” or “expected”, and some that doesn’t. That’s how it goes here in the lower 40s latitude and a longitude that places us next to an ocean. and not far from mountains. While some areas have already seen their first minor measurable snow event of the season, it’s obvious by looking at the calendar that the actual winter still lies ahead, and in that time frame the vast majority of our chances at “winter weather” as generally defined. Isn’t it interesting though that there have been times when our biggest snowfalls of a particular winter season have occurred outside of that time frame we think of as “winter”. Examples: Many areas had their largest snowfall of the season on October 29-30 2011. Many areas also recorded easily their largest snowfall of the season on April 1 1997. It happens outside the frame, sometimes. Most of the time, it does not. But I’m not here to try to predict if that is going to be the case this time, just to give you a general idea of what type of winter we may expect based on what I (and my colleagues) know about what is going on and what is expected, and in some cases what has already gone on (you’ll see what I mean). On to it.

OVERVIEW

The “players” on the field are many, and vary from winter to winter, but the same basic ideas apply. We look at ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), AO (Arctic Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), among other things. What we do know is this will be the third consecutive winter we enter in the La Nina phase of ENSO – cooler than average water temps in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. “Triple-Dip” La Nina, as they are called, are fairly rare, with only about 3 of them observed during the last century. There are no huge trends that stand out for those we have seen, and with so few to sample from we can’t really draw any conclusions about that, so it’s better to just focus on the fact La Nina starts the winter, and the expected trend is for it to weaken as we move on through winter. One of the larger drivers in how winter trends may be the PNA (Pacific / North America) index and especially EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). A large area of warm water exists in the western North Pacific while Alaska is cooler. If this pattern persists, the influence is to put low pressure troughing and colder weather in Alaska and eastern Pacific which often translates to milder weather in the central and eastern USA, which would be somewhat counteracted by the La Nina tendency to have a cold air often in the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and sometimes the Great Lakes. Also, if the EPO should shift so that the warmer air to the west moves to the east, this would induce a ridge in Alaska and when that happens it can be easier for cold air in the arctic and Canada to flow into the US Mainland. The Polar Vortex status is going to be a big player this season. It’s prone to interruptions as we head into and through December, which can make for a more volatile pattern and the ability to drive cold air into the USA from Canada, the persistence of it dependent on how quickly the lobes of interrupted PV move. The other indices mentioned above either impact long-term or shorter-term weather and just need to be monitored as we go along. They are always wildcards of sorts and that will be no different this time. However, there is a wildcard we have not mentioned yet, and that is the eruption of the Tonga volcano earlier this year. This eruption was one of the larger scale events we have seen related to volcanic activity, and this being an undersea volcano was able to put more water vapor into the upper atmosphere than we have observed since we were able to measure it. The impact this has can range from more upper atmospheric cloud cover resulting in cooling to a trapping of more of the sun’s heat leading to warming. It’s unknown if one of these will dominate, or if they will tend to balance out, and what the overall impact will be. It’s a potential factor in throwing off the forecast but certainly an opportunity for learning. Based on all this, the knowns, and the unknowns, the best guess I have for our region for the winter of 2022-2023 is one that will feature a fair amount of variability, probably a little colder than last year although not substantially so, and probably a fairly average amount of precipitation and snowfall. Let’s try to break it down a little bit more going month-by-month.

DECEMBER
Heading out of November with a pattern that features some up and down temperatures but certainly is colder than how the month started out, it appears that the MJO will help initiate a return to somewhat milder weather with briefer cold shots as we move through the first third of the month. After this, the primary driver is expected to be a polar vortex that becomes unstable resulting in a negative AO. If the EPO stays negative (warmer water west of the Gulf of Alaska), the tendency would be for the coldest air to be in the upper Plains and Midwest, but if we shift that warmer water a bit further east creating a positive EPO, those cold shots would have an easier time getting through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The latter is my leaning, with help from the MJO after its initial influence of milder weather. This could potentially mean that the colder and snowier face of winter may show up around mid month on through Christmas and toward the New Year. I’m leaning this way at this time. So after a quieter start, it may get a bit more “fun” for the holiday season. La Nina will likely be at its strongest during this portion of winter, so that means another player can become a ridge in the southeastern US, which when strong enough tends to make our region mild, but this time may be less prominent, allowing the cold air to have a more direct impact in the Northeast. We most likely see the greatest influence from this ridge in the first 10 days of the month then become more vulnerable to the colder shots from Canada thereafter. The transition between this and the colder side of the pattern can be slow, and this can also set up ice storm chances, so that will also be something to watch for. Potential bust factors for the forecast are a more persistent ridge and the often negative PNA pattern we’ve been seeing. Temperature: Near to below normal. Precipitation: Near normal. Snowfall: Slightly above normal.

JANUARY
La Nina weakens, PV stays cranky for a while then starts to settle down. Coldest and snowiest weather weighted toward the first half of the month with a relaxation of the pattern later. Aforementioned wildcard factors must be kept track of. There are things in play that could prolong the colder and snowier expectation or cut it off earlier. Temperature: Near normal, starting cold, shifting milder. Precipitation: Near normal. Snow: Near to slightly below normal, but may start out snowy with above normal for the first half of the month.

FEBRUARY

La Nina weakening trend continues and we head toward neutral ENSO conditions. PV stable – AO positive. Still enough of a Southeast ridge from what remains of La Nina to place milder air in easier reach. That, combined with the expectation of positive AO would lead to a milder, more benign pattern. Temperature: Above normal. Precipitation: Near to below normal. Snow: Below normal.

MARCH (FIRST 20 DAYS)

This is obviously the time period furthest away and lowest confidence forecast. Leaning toward a continuation of February’s pattern of generally mild, but wildcards in play can still initiate shots of strong winter weather, cold and/or later-season snow, so we will want to be on the look-out for that. Temperature: Near to above normal. Precipitation: Near normal. Snow: Near to below normal.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Slightly above normal (departure +1F to +2F).
Precipitation: Slightly below normal (departure about -1 to -2 inches).
Snow: Near normal (snowiest earlier, less later).
-Boston 45-55 inches
-Worcester 55-65 inches
-Providence 35-45 inches
-Hartford 50-60 inches

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Clear sailing weather-wise as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday with high pressure in control of the weather. We are still chilly, but we do see moderation in temperature today and Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will quietly slide through Wednesday evening and drop the temperature modestly for Thanksgiving Day, while high pressure to the south gives way to one in eastern Canada. Clouds will start to advance before the holiday ends ahead of the next low pressure system. You all know the tale of the inconsistent models for days on end leading to a wild array of social media posts about potentials and all of that. Here, my approach is different as you know, avoiding the hype, sticking to what I can tell you and qualifying the possibilities. Seems the idea of some type of rain event on Black Friday will indeed be the case, but the system will not be all that strong, and it does not look like a solidly rainy day, just a few periods of rain or rain showers. The system then moves along and high pressure provides nice weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Sunny then patchy clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy clouds then clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog. Highs 46-53. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Watching the period November 27-28 for a probable rain (maybe brief higher elevation mix) event in which the timing needs to be nailed down. Generally quiet and seasonable weather to follow with a westerly flow to end November then potential unsettled weather to open December.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Variable temperatures early December averaging somewhat close to normal with a couple disturbances to bring brief and mostly minor precipitation threats as the pattern doesn’t look like it will support any major storminess.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Thanksgiving Week has arrived and as we all know, the next few days are big travel days, locally, regionally, and beyond for people heading out, coming in, or just picking up last minute grocery items to cook dinner. Weather can have a big impact on getting around, but this year leading up to Thanksgiving it’s going to have very little impact, except maybe some solar glare for driving for a few hours combined – morning and afternoon. It’s not too often that we can look at 4 straight days in November this way, let alone those days being leading up to and including Thanksgiving. We’ll accomplish this with high pressure in control, its center generally to our south and west, and a new one centered to our north on the holiday itself. A weak trough will slide through the region tonight, keeping its snow showers north of our region. Temperatures will be at their coldest today, with slight moderation to follow, then a cold front will push through late on Wednesday, again with no impact other than shifting our wind direction and bringing in slightly cooler air for the holiday. Thanksgiving Day will start bright as the next 3 days will be, but clouds will be moving in ahead of the next storm system, which seems destined to bring a rain event for Black Friday, as the low center will be tracking to our west and northwest…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH this morning, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, then W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coastal areas, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

As we move into the remainder of Thanksgiving Weekend, my method of A.M.E. (anticipated model error) is being used heavily for this forecast. Expecting the low pressure that impacts the region on Friday with rain to be moving north of our region early Saturday with relatively mild air in place and additional rain showers, followed by a dry and breezy end to the day with the start of falling temperatures, leading to a windier, chilly finish to the weekend on Sunday November 27 with dry weather anticipated. Behind this another wave of low pressure brings the chance of rain for Monday November 28, based on current expecting timing of systems, followed by the return to dry weather and near to below normal temperatures for the last couple of days of the month. Obviously with inconsistency in guidance (disagreement between models and differences in each model run to run) the confidence in this forecast is limited – but this is how I think it plays out right now. Adjustments will be made as needed…

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Best I can gauge right now, December opens up with a fairly benign weather pattern, up and down temperatures averaging close to normal, and one or two minor precipitation events around air mass changes with a generally zonal flow pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

The tweaking process is always ongoing when updating a forecast, but there won’t be many tweaks made to the first 5 days covered on this blog today. We’re still looking at mainly dry, chilly weather with a gusty breeze today into the early part of the week but the exceptions are the potential for a few snow showers (rain or snow showers South Coast) reaching the region via the Great Lakes this afternoon / early evening, and maybe a quick passing snow shower early Tuesday favoring southern NH and northern MA with a disturbance passing quickly through the region. Moderation in temperature is still expected heading into midweek as high pressure which was to the west shifts more to our south, but another high to the north will send a frontal boundary quietly through the region later Wednesday or Thursday and shifts the air flow back to northerly, putting the brakes on any significantly milder push of air, but at least we don’t seem to be looking at anything in the way of a really cold Thanksgiving either – and it should remain dry despite increasing clouds as the next low pressure system will be approaching, but not quite here yet. So the idea is generally good weather is ours for being out and about leading up to the holiday…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few possible showers of rain/mix South Coast and graupel and/or snow elsewhere, mainly during the afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A quick passing snow shower possible favoring southern NH and northern MA. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially morning.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Despite continued guidance inconsistencies and disagreements I stick to the same idea today of a Black Friday (Nov 25) rain event and a drier weekend, not-too-chilly but breezy Saturday (Nov 26) and somewhat colder Sunday (Nov 27). Watching for a low pressure system with a mix/rain chance and brief moderation in temperature – based on expected track this far out – for Monday Nov 28 followed by a return to dry and seasonably chilly weather for Tuesday Nov 29. I realize this is a little detailed for a 6-10 day forecast and tweaks / changes are certainly possible. Use as a guide only for now.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

No big changes to the overall pattern outlook heading into early December with variable – near to slightly below normal – temperatures for the period. No solid indications of any major storms but with several disturbances in the pipeline, always have to watch for something to develop a bit more.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

As we head into the final weekend before Thanksgiving, again there are no big changes to make to the ongoing outlook for the coming few days which will feature chilly and mainly dry weather. The only real chance of any precipitation is a few showers of precipitation (mix, graupel, or snow) early Sunday and again a few snow showers in isolated areas in the afternoon as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in, and again a few snow flurries Tuesday as a weak disturbances goes quickly through the region. Otherwise it’s a general west to northwest wind flow from Canada for the duration with fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A pre-dawn snow shower possible. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few showers of rain (South Coast) and graupel/snow (elsewhere) early, and a chance of a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Current outlook is for rain-free but more clouds and seasonably cool for Thanksgiving on November 24 as high pressure shifts offshore, then a chance of a rain event as a stronger low pressure area travels west and northwest of our region on “Black Friday” November 25. Trend for the rest of this period is drying out Saturday November 26 but not too chilly yet, then colder for November 27, and still watching for a system to possibly bring mix/rain for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but not expecting any major storms in this time period.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Making a few minor tweaks but no major changes to the 5-day forecast, but the idea is generally the same – overall quiet (no big storms) and chilly. Some locations experienced graupel showers yesterday – always a little thrill to see precipitation that looks like tiny styrofoam balls bouncing around. None of that today though, just dry weather, sun and some clouds. A sunnier Saturday is in store, but a reinforcing cold front comes through Saturday night and early Sunday and may produce a quick snow shower in a few spots, otherwise we’re looking at dry weather through the weekend, colder on Sunday than Saturday, and additional dry, chilly weather as Canadian high pressure dominates early in the week.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A pre-dawn snow shower possible. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Thanksgiving is on November 24 and as we all know, the day before is where a lot of traveling takes place (that hasn’t already taken place), and the weather for both that day and most of the holiday look pretty decent. There are differences in model guidance ranging from “milder” to “reinforcing cold” coming in right there – and to be honest at this point I’m not sure, could go either way, but leaning toward a little bit of both, quick reinforcing shot of cold the day before, a cold start then moderating but some clouds arriving on the holiday itself. If you read the comments on this blog you’ve seen me talk about inconsistency in long range guidance making the forecast very difficult as far as using the guidance goes for the weekend “Black Friday” / Thanksgiving Weekend – whatever you like to call those days (haha). Right now I continue to lean toward an unsettled Friday (Nov 25) and a drier, chilly weekend, maybe a few snow showers here and there. Additional fine-tuning of this forecast is obviously needed…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but my overall idea is for the best shot of unsettled weather to be November 28 based pretty much entirely on what I think the medium range guidance is not “seeing” yet, and maybe a minor system to greet the new month on December 1 and/or 2.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The weather pattern over the next several days will be fairly dry and chilly, dominated by an air flow out of Canada. Two disturbances can create a passing rain or snow shower during this time, the first one today, the second one on Sunday. The coldest day of the next 5 should be Monday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Medium range guidance remains inconsistent with systems and not reliable. Pattern supports dry weather and a temperature moderation early this period, a period of unsettled weather possible from late Thanksgiving (Nov 24) into Black Friday (Nov 25), then a drier and seasonable end to the period. But this is not a high confidence forecast for later in that period, so watch for updates.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but my overall idea is for the best shot of unsettled weather to be late November 27 and November 28.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Our first little bout with “winter weather” has occurred with some snow at the start of our rainstorm last night. But with warm ground and brief duration this has not caused any real issues, even with up to nearly 2 inches falling in some of the higher elevations of interior portions of the WHW forecast area. Any remaining slushy snow on the ground from that will disappear today as we see the rain taper off and end, but the clouds hang on. Eventually the air will start to dry out as a northeasterly wind shifts to northwest. After this, the weather through the weekend will feature mostly dry conditions, a gusty breeze at times, and below normal temperatures. The only additional precipitation chances we have are a potential passing brief shower of rain or snow on Thursday as an upper disturbance passes, and a passing snow flurry possibility Sunday as a reinforcing cold front moves through.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain ending southwest to northeast by midday. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands shifting to NW during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Thanksgiving Week starts dry with below normal temperatures, followed by a temperature moderation and eventually some unsettled weather toward Thanksgiving afternoon or “Black Friday” – timing as well as details of that potential unsettled weather system can’t quite be determined yet.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

The final 5 days of November should feature near to below normal temperatures in general with some variability. While there is continued (but not unexpected) inconsistency in medium range guidance for these days, the idea I have right now is a few showers of one kind of precipitation or another at the very start of the period with the departure of the system I’m watching for just after Thanksgiving, and then around mid period the chance of additional precipitation (probably rain but too soon to say for sure) around the middle of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A frosty morning greeted early-risers today, not that we haven’t seen frost already in much of the area this autumn, but areas that had not seen it previously have now, and many areas that had not seen a hard freeze previously also now have, with only a few urban and immediate coastal exceptions left. Those areas will get there too before too long in this newly emerged weather pattern, which features below normal temperatures for a while – a well-forecast pattern by medium range guidance I might add. Today, we start bright, but end cloudy as high pressure over us now loosens its grip and gives way to approaching low pressure from the southwest. This low center will give us an unsettled Wednesday with precipitation arriving from southwest to northeast in the late evening hours as rain South Coast, snow in many areas near and north of I-90, and a mix area between. The quicker it comes in, the longer it can snow where that takes place. This may make some areas a little slick for the early part of Wednesday’s commute, but a quick transition to rain will be underway already. Equally if not more hazardous across the region will be wet leaves in areas they cover roads and walkways, as well as some possible flooding around clogged catch basins. Keep all of these potential hazards in mind if needing to travel early Wednesday. Later in the day the rainfall will taper off and clearing will commence but not until after dark. Thursday through Saturday will feature mainly dry, chilly weather with a northwesterly air flow. Upper level low pressure having to cross the region on Thursday, however, will bring with it a chance of a few passing light rain and snow showers (snow showers most likely interior hills).

TODAY: Sunny start / mostly cloudy finish. Highs 43-50. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arriving overnight as snow/sleet southern NH and northeastern through central MA with up to around 1 inch of snow/sleet in highest elevations southwestern NH / north central MA with rain South Coast and some mix between but no accumulation of snow beyond a brief coating on cold surfaces, then all areas rain by about dawn. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, ending in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands shifting to NW during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Dry weather and below normal temperatures to finish off the weekend into early next week, then moderating temperatures and mainly dry into midweek. May have a low pressure or frontal system approaching by Thanksgiving (Nov 24) but that’s day 10 and really too soon for any detail.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Unsettled weather potential to start the period, and again very late in the period, otherwise mainly dry with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

This next 5 days will feature generally below normal temperatures, but there will be one brief exception during the passage of the only storm system of the period, on Wednesday, when we’ll see a wider range across the region including a quick push of milder air for the South Coast region. First, high pressure centered to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada is the recipe for a gusty breeze today, which will ease tonight as the high center moves across the region. Tuesday, while we stay dry and chilly we start to cloud over in advance of low pressure, which will be passing by to our south on Wednesday, but close enough for a period of precipitation, generally a rain event, but during the first few hours cold enough for snow and sleet with minor accumulation on colder surfaces mainly outside of I-95 and north of I-90, favoring the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH – the first little bout of wintry weather for the season. Exit the storm system Wednesday evening, and return chilly and dry weather, although a passing rain or snow shower may visit a few locations during Thursday as an upper level disturbances moves across the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/sleet mainly central to northeastern MA and southern NH developing overnight with some light rain and possible mix elsewhere. Minor snow accumulation possible higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected for the November 19-20 weekend with a northwesterly air flow from Canada. Moderating temperatures early in the week along with a possible day of unsettled weather November 22 depending on the integrity of the next disturbance coming along. Dry and seasonably cool at period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Continued medium range guidance inconsistency out in this time range. No big changes to my overall ideas of looking for a potential unsettled weather threat in the November 24 (Thanksgiving) and 25 (Black Friday) time frame, and another one before the end of the period with variable temperatures. There will be a lot of refining and fine-tuning to come.

I haven’t been able to change the comment order for the tab version, so just keep using this for now…

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Our temperature step-down continues. The transition to a chilly pattern is ongoing and after we booted the tropical air and remnants of Nicole with a cold front yesterday, it stayed pretty mild behind that initial front while the dew points did drop. A follow-up disturbance and secondary front will cross the region today with some morning and midday rainfall, then another drying trend and even cooler air arriving as we end the day. By the time we see any appreciable clearing, the sun will be about ready to set anyway, so definitely not the brightest of November days today. As we start the new week we will be in a pattern of below normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure dominates, but during Tuesday, the clouds ahead of the next low pressure system will arrive. The next system will be a low pressure area moving northeastward off the Middle Atlantic Coast around Virginia late Tuesday night, which will then track northeastward, passing south and east of New England Wednesday. While this system will not be turning into a powerhouse low, it will be intensifying quickly enough to expand its precipitation shield across our region, making for a wet Wednesday. If precipitation arrives quickly enough in the early morning hours, it could be in the form of snow or at least rain mixed with snow, mainly over interior portions of southern New England. If that happens, the brief duration and relatively warm ground would prevent any accumulation of snow save for a possible brief coating on chilly surfaces (car tops, fallen leaves, etc.), but the system will be mainly a rain-producer. That moves out on Wednesday night, and a renewed shot of cold air arrives Thursday. At this time a little disturbance will be passing by above, and this can help spawn a few rain and snow showers during the day (snow showers most likely inland and higher elevation locations), but not a big deal from that. A gusty wind and chilly air will be more noticeable than any passing rain/snow shower.

TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain through midday. Partial sun later on, especially I-95 westward. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations especially higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period with dry weather for most of it, and then a temperature moderation and some unsettled weather by the end of the period from the next low pressure system moving into the Northeast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Guidance inconsistency on recent runs, but overall idea remains similar. While it will be difficult to time systems this far in advance, looking for a potential threat for unsettled weather sometime in the November 24-25 window and possibly again at the very end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal is the current expectation.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

A weekend of unsettled weather ushers in a new weather pattern. If you were up early today, you may have seen a glimpse or two of sunshine in eastern MA and RI with breaks in the clouds between last night’s rainfall and the final chapter of the remains of Nicole coming through this morning. The remnant low, combined with a cold front, associated with a large scale trough moving in from the west, will sweep across the region this morning with another round of showers and downpours, a few of which may result in damaging wind gusts, before it all exits by midday. As for the specifics regarding today’s rain, one swath of moderate to heavy showers sweeps from RI through southeastern MA up to about Boston now (before 9AM), and another swath to the west sweeps east northeastward covering most locations from the I-90 belt northward as we move through the morning, exiting via northeastern MA and the NH Seacoast late in the morning. The second half of the day will feature improvement with breaking clouds, increasing sun, a shifting wind, and drying air replacing the almost summer-like humidity we start the day with. Tonight is dry, and cooler, but the colder air holds off for a bit. Once upon a time I forecast a sunnier day for Sunday, in belief that a follow-up area of energy would ignite rainfall mainly offshore, but it’s going to happen further west, so the forecast for Sunday now shares some similarities with today’s in that we’ll have a wet weather threat in the morning to midday hours before improvement. Finally, the colder, dry air overtakes the region Sunday night and Monday. Tuesday, we’ll remain chilly and dry, but clouds will start to increase ahead of the next low pressure system which will be heading rapidly northeastward and is destined to pass not far south of here on Wednesday. This will be close enough to give us a period of rain, but this rain may start as the first snowflakes of the season for parts of the region, especially away from the coast, depending on how quickly it comes in. Just a reminder that winter, while not here yet, is on its way…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers likely during the morning, including a slight chance of thunder. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Highs 65-72 early, then cooling through 60s. Dew point 60+ morning, falling quickly afternoon. Wind S 5-15 mph with gusts 25-35 MPH, isolated stronger gusts possible, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: A few passing clouds evening, then more clouds overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty, becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period and right now it looks like any follow-up low pressure systems to the midweek one will stay to the south, keeping our weather generally dry, other than a rain or snow shower which may visit with any northern jet stream disturbances passing by.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Medium range timing speculation brings me to a forecast of briefly milder weather with a rain shower threat to start this period, a quick return to cool/dry weather behind it, then the possibility of another unsettled weather system about Thanksgiving (Nov 24) but very low confidence on this part of the forecast as guidance has not been consistent with that system’s existence. Dry weather would be favored either way for later in the period with near to below normal temperatures. With this being a huge travel time there will be a lot of scrutiny on the forecast so much refining will be needed as we get closer to it. You know how that goes by now…

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

First, a thank you to all Veterans who have served and continue to serve our country today! For those who have today off, this ends up as a 3-day weekend. We’ll have dry weather for Veterans Day parades and ceremonies, most of which take place this morning and midday, though clouds are already rapidly moving in ahead of the long-talk-about systems we are about to encounter. We’ll have a combo of the moisture and low pressure area that was Nicole coming from the south, while a broad trough of low pressure approaching from the west pushes a frontal boundary into and across the region by midday Saturday. We’re still looking at two main batches of rainfall, one this evening and one tomorrow morning, but there maybe a few rain showers around at other times as well. While the first area will be a pretty solid area, a lot of it may be far enough west that Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore miss out on the bulk of it. The second area may also be concentrated more north and west so that these same areas get a more brief period of wet weather than other areas do for the second main batch on Saturday. There will be the possibility of some damaging wind gusts with both batches of rain showers, especially in any heavier ones. The second area has the ability to produce rotating showers that can also lead to very brief, weak tornadoes, but this chance is rather remote, just not zero. By Saturday midday and afternoon all o f the unsettled weather will be pulling quickly offshore and we’ll see quite the nice afternoon. After a very mild and muggy overnight tonight and Saturday morning, it will dry out in the afternoon but remain fairly mild, as the cold air behind this system will be lagging the departure of the rain – so despite a gusty breeze it will turn out to be a rather nice afternoon. With the trough axis still to our west and another disturbance to come along, in addition to a secondary cold front that has to cross the region, after holding out I am going to add some rainfall to the Sunday morning and midday forecast. I do not expect this to end up as a rainy day, but somewhat like Saturday, the first part of the day will be unsettled, followed by improvement, but this time the colder air will come in, along with wind, and you will definitely notice. High pressure brings fair weather and below normal temperatures early in the coming week, with some passing fair weather clouds and a gusty breeze Monday, and less wind Tuesday, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to appear in the sky ahead of the next weather system we’ll have to watch…

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Clouding up. A rain shower possible this afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers and a slight chance of thunder, though rain showers may be only scattered Cape Cod. Areas of fog. Lows 59-66. Dew point rising to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, isolated gusts 35-55 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling through the 60s. Dew point 60+ morning, then falling. Wind S 5-15 mph with gusts 25-35 MPH, isolated stronger gusts possible, shifting to W 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A few passing clouds evening, then more clouds overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty, becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Below normal temperatures will be the rule throughout this time period. Low pressure from the southwest brings the chance of precipitation (possibly starting as snow for some areas but likely ending up as rain) during November 16, followed by the return to generally dry weather, but another system may approach by late in the period with a precipitation chance.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Overall similar pattern. While the below normal temperatures may relax a little we will see most of the time dry with a system somewhere around Thanksgiving (Nov 24) possible for some unsettled weather. Can’t really time these with a lot of confidence so far in advance so just the idea for now that we’ll have to watch for something around that time.