Fine Tuning Uncertainty

268 Comments

2:10AM

Well, here comes the storm. And though I certainly don’t mean to downplay the potential, I’m also not going to overdo the trumpet blasts, because that leads to ringing ears. So instead of launching into all kinds of what-ifs, I’ll summarize the main aspects of the storm and update the forecast, expanded a bit to include most of MA and southern NH.

Time frame: Starts by mid to late afternoon Saturday, ends by mid morning Sunday.

Coastal flooding: Most likely at the time of Sunday morning’s high tide, about 2AM. Flooding will be minor to moderate. No major flood damage is expected.

Wind: Starts out east to northeast increasing to 15-25 MPH then increases to 25-35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH, especially in coastal areas and higher elevations. Wind eventually shifts to north during Saturday night, and northwest Sunday.

Precipitation: Starts as mix to snow Berkshires, rain in Connecticut Valley, rain mixed with snow at times Worcester Hills, rain over the balance of eastern MA. The change to snow takes place by early Saturday evening across most areas outside of  Route 495, but may take longer, possibly as late as 10PM, closer to the coast. This is a highly uncertain part of the storm and may depend on the placement of a boundary that sets up in these storms, known as a coastal front, where winds on the eastern side are from the east or northeast, and winds to the west of the boundary are from the north. This will make a major difference in precipitation type, and snow accumulation. We’ll just have to watch this feature during the storm’s evolution. I’ve observed a feature like this sit in place and cause one area to have slushy minor snow accumulation while just 2 miles away several inches of solid snow have accumulated. The gradient of snow accumulation may be very sharp in this storm. The fact that the ocean water temperature just offshore is about 55 degrees is going to have a significant influence in how rain vs. snow plays out, and why I think many amounts in the media may be overdone.

Snow accumulation: Slushy patches southeast of Boston, around 1 inch, possibly up to 2, right around the city, 1 to 4 inches from the North Shore westward to between 95 and 495, 4 to 8 inches west of there with pockets of 8 to 12 inches in the highest elevations of Worcester County, the mountains of southwestern NH, and the eastern slopes of the Berkshires of MA, with an area of 3 to 7 inches in the Connecticut Valley. *** A shift of 10 or 20 miles in the storm track will make a significant difference in amounts. ***

Power outages: The combination of heavy snow accumulating on trees that still have leaves, especially inland, will lead to tree damage and some power outages. Some power lines themselves may fail due to the weight of heavy, wet snow. Closer to the coast, strong wind gusts, not so much snow, will result in scattered power outages due to broken tree limbs. I don’t expect this to be widespread.

Forecast Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain developing south to north mid through late afternoon. High 40-45. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain and snow inland changing to snow. Rain and snow closer to the coast should change to snow eventually. Lightning and thunder possible. Low 30-35. Wind NE 15-25 MPH increasing to 25-35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH, especially coastal areas and higher elevations. SEE ABOVE for snow accumulations.

SUNDAY: Snow/mix ending by mid morning followed by clearing. High 42-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT – HALLOWEEN: Mostly clear. Evening temperature cooling through the 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 60.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers. Low 47. High 64.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 54.

268 thoughts on “Fine Tuning Uncertainty”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. After reading your forecast, I have two questions.

    1) You mentioned 2 factors, 1) where the boudary sets up and wind directions change (NE to NW) and 2) water temps — for this storm, are these the 2 most important factors affecting snow totals? This is just a curiosity question.
    2) It seems from the BZ as well as your forecast, we will be experiencing strong winds for 18-24 hours. Is this correct? (My neighborhood in Newton is notorious for short outages and I am thinking it will possibly be flashlight time.)

    1. 1) Yes, in this case.
      2) Given the history of your neighborhood, plan for the worst.

      …

      3) Be safe & good luck!

  2. When it hits midnight tonight, with some areas getting clobbered by heavy wet snow, it will be only 100 days past…….July 22nd…….. You may remember that day for hitting 103F in Boston and the century spot in many other Massachusetts communities. Gotta love New England.

    1. I remember it well – it is my oldest daughters birthday and we cooked out and ate in 🙂

      Good morning, Tom!

  3. NWS bringing WSW a little further SE and evidently bringing WWA to include Boston, if I have read their recently updated discussion correctly. Just waiting for them to update their snowfall projections……

        1. Hi Hadi.

          Both channels seem to have snow accumulations much closer to the coast, especially down my way and had that 3-6 inch line right on top of Boston.

  4. If it snows in my neighborhood and accumulates, I will be truly amazed….. but it looks like it has a shot very late tonight, tomorrow AM. Look forward to checking back in later today. Have a good day all !!

  7. NWS really sticking with very minor accumulation in the city. Just woke up and have not looked at the nam but reading the comments I guess we might be in for some surprises!!

    Btw great to see some old friends from the BZ blog!!

  8. Thanks TK – from your blog it seems we will have 1-4 in Framingham now or did I read that incorrectly? That’s down considerably and may mean not quite so much running around to prepare today.

    Coastal are your windows in your screen house? We always put ours in the porch early to mid October. This is the first time in 20 years we have not – go figure 🙂

    1. I expect you’ll be around the 4 there, as you are very much near the border of that 1-4 band and 4-8 band.

  9. No changes in the snow index from yesterday. I am sticking with a 2 for the interior since those areas to me have the best shot of 4 plus inches. For areas close to the coast I am going with a 1 since I think the totals will stay under 4 inches.
    With coastal storms there are always surprises and nowcasting more than likely will happen. Hopefully I don’t lose power like I did with Irene and be able to blog with all of you throughout the storm.
    Power Outages is another concern especially with the leaves on the trees and the strong winds which is not a good combination.

  10. Here is a breakdown of the snow index in case anyone is wondering with the numbers I posed mean
    1. Dusting to 4 inches.
    2. 5-10 inches
    3. 10-20 inches
    4. 20 plus inches.
    Last year parts of the area made it to level 4 and there were a few level 3 storms. Will see what this winter brings.

  11. The maps on Channel 4 and 7 have no snow for my area. Channel 5 has me on the border of a coating to 2-6 inches. Time will tell.

  12. The 06z NAM wants to murder the north shore of Mass with heavy snow for several hours. Oh the surprises we might be in for…

  13. I think were going into a nowcasting mode during the storm. As I always say these low pressure systems have minds of their own and any shift could make a huge difference.

  14. Sky looks weirdly pretty this morning in Sudbury. Off to southeast you can see orange which then blends into various shades of gray. It is actually bright off to northwest. I believe this looks like a “pre-storm” sky. I remember the blizzard of ’78 – the morning of that day the sky was really strangely pink. I don’t see that today ‘though earlier I did see some pink. The one thing with this storm I don’t relish is the possibility of no electricity. During summer storms, it’s no fun – but when the weather is colder, I like it even less. There are a lot of trees around our house and many still have lots of leaves (shame – some just started to show lots of color). Most meteorologists are really hyping it up. Hey, they could be right. But I like TK’s ideas – cautious and realistic. I am meeting a friend for lunch this aft. So hoping no lights go out, I will try to update later on w/my observations.

  16. Good morning everyone. This storm really has me concerned for coastal massachusetts especially along the I-95 corridor. There is very little room for error as the thermal gradient east of 495 will be extremely tight. The latest computer model information is suggesting a slight colder solution and resultant easterly shift of that all important coastal front. As TK pointed out, that is the demarcation zone between heavy rain to the east and heavy wet snow to the west of the line. It will be a strong battle between north/northwesterly winds to the west of this front that will make a very good push for cold air to seep into the area and a very warm marine layer to the east and southeast due to ocean temps in the mid 50’s. What has me concerned is that this storm intends to bomb out just southeast of nantucket. Such bombogenesis could cause the rain/snow line (with coastal front) to collapse to the coast sooner than models are currently forecasting. I expect there to be a few surprises with this early unprecedented winter storm. Nowcasting begins and so does all the fun. I’m going for higher amounts further east including the city of boston and the immediate southwest suburbs while plymouth and southeast remain heavy rain for the majority of the storm. A 5-10 mile shift either way will make all the difference in the world for many towns. In my opinion, the wild card zone includes the 95 corridor where I feel the cold air will win out. Have fun everyone. More later…

    1. Again it is beyond awesome to have you here. I was a huge fan of yours. BM is not on this blog, he was invited. meant to say was a fan on wbz and now here.

  18. Channel 5’s 8 am forecast.

    Coast/Boston = 2-6″
    Between 95 & 495 = 5-9″
    West of 495 & Worcester = 6-12″
    No. MA/ So. NH =12+”

    Snow in Boston to start at midnight.

    1. Longshot. I saw that. It seems their amts are higher than other two stations for my area at least. There is a winter storm warning for framingham as of this morning

  19. Vicki, I agree they are higher. They also said a coating for the Cape. I think this is the Sunday where they have the Cape marathon. Or maybe it’s today — ?

  20. Should be an interesting day to say least!!! I think we need to keep in mind the historical implication this storm will have on the region.

  21. hi guys,

    ok…I’m going to stick local here since there’s plenty of us on here to do each others local thing.

    don’t know how many of you are from worcester co. so some of these towns might sound like mars to you.

    Auburn to Shrewsbury to Northboro line 6-12 inches.

    Northern city limits of Worcester to Holden, Paxton up to Princeton 12-15 possibly a touch more above 1000 ft.

    There are areas around here with snow on the ground still. I am even covered on the south part of my lawn and on the roof still which i’m surprised about so unless it rains, it’s going to stick right away.

  22. The only reason my absolute max amounts are around a foot in the mountains are due to the very compacting nature of the snow, even out there. I’m well aware that precip amounts would normally correlate to higher amounts, but we must keep the time of year and conditions in mind.

    I’m going to hold with the forecast above for now. There’s always room for adjustments, shifts, and surprises. Mother Nature doesn’t work in smooth curves, at least in storms like this. 🙂

  23. It’s also easy to forget, in all the excitement of trying to figure out what’s going to happen, that a very large portion of the melted precipitation is going to fall as rain during the first part of this storm. If the model is painting 1.75 inch of melted for the event, for example, and you are east of 495, probably around 1 inch of it may be down before it even changes to snow.

  24. I would like to welcome the newcomers to this blog…you are invited to post during the “boring” times as well as the stormy ones! We always want to hear from you! 🙂

    For now I believe 1-3″ for Boston and inside 128/95 is a safe bet. I am somewhat surprised Joe at WBZ is going for 3-6″, but maybe he is thinking the cold air is coming sooner than expected? We will see by day’s end for sure. 🙂

    Jimmy, I believe you should give a 3 for parts of the interior. I have seen some snowfall maps calling for a foot and a teeny bit more.

  25. A couple of observations…

    Boston Harbor air temp at the buoy is 47F with a NE wind (060 degrees). That breeze is already steady here.

    Mt Washington is still 14F.

    The dewpoints in all of Maine and NH are in the mid-upper 20s.

  26. TK thanks for the update as always! I am somewhat surprised that you haven’t considered “thundersnow” in your forecast. Isn’t that typical near coastal fronts?

    1. I have, and it was an omission. About to fix it. Thunder is possible in banding over western MA and in the vicinity of a coastal front in eastern MA.

  27. This is my concern for North East Mass.
    from the 12z NAM
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111029%2F12%2Fnam_namer_018_sim_radar.gif&fcast=018&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&cycle=10%2F29%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  31. I am going to be watching the higher elevations of SNE across the interior because some areas might make it to the 10 inch plus mark which would be a 3 on the snow index. Currently sticking with a 2 for the interior and a 1 for areas near or at the coast.
    Flakes falling in NYC right now.

  32. I think you will see a change by this afternoon to more snow and a winter storm warning to be issued for Boston north and west.

  33. What is interesting to me looking at the radar from Philadelphia to D.C. the rain snow line is close if not right on the I-95 corridor.

  34. hmmmmmmmmm….. 10 am update from NWS

    RAIN AND SNOW…
    IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN DYNAMIC COOLING AND ONSHORE MARITIME AIR. MY
    THOUGHTS SIMPLY IS THAT PRECIP RATES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT…INVOKE
    THE LOWER ATMOS PROFILE TO MOISTEN AND FALL BELOW FRZG QUICKLY.
    TIMING SPECIFICS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN…BUT DO EXPECT A
    MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR TO BE IMPACTED BY SNOW BY DUSK…WITH
    LOCALES ALONG AND S/E OF I-95 TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN. SNOW
    FALLING QUICKLY SHOULD ALLOW ACCUM ASIDE FROM THE WARM WET GROUND…
    LESSONS LEARNED FROM THIS PAST THURS STORM. HAVE MODIFIED SFC
    TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER…WANT TO GO LOWER THAN MOS…HAVE
    KEPT PRECIP AMNTS FAIRLY THE SAME. CONSIDERING SNOW TO ACCUM AT
    36F WITH A SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO 1:8 TO 1:9…6-HR SNOW AMNTS OF
    1-2 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH 3-4 ALONG THE W SLOPES OF
    THE BERKSHIRES BY DUSK…AROUND A HALF AN INCH FOR THE CT VLY
    RGNS. THE 0Z NCEP WRF /GOOGLE IT/ IS A GOOD REFERENCE OF POTENTIAL
    RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS IN THE NEAR- TERM.

    1. Just what my concern is Hadi. I believe in patterns. This past mini event on Thurs turned out to be a tad cooler than guidance. It won’t take much in the way of cooler surface temps to make a tremendous difference in snowfall amounts in the city points west. Once the storm cranks, my concern is that dynamic cooling will allow for the rain/snow line to collapse toward the coast a bit faster than guidance indicates, thus bringing the more substantial snow closer to Boston and along the I 95 corridor. This is the wild card and thus I feel it is prudent that WSW go up for this area in the late afternoon package.

  35. 45F here in JP.

    This precip will get heavy right from the get go:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=99&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=99&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

  36. The temperature in Newton has actually dropped today from 41F to 39F currently. I know with these lower dew points that temps can go down more quickly. I am wondering if the snow portion will start a little sooner than expected.

    1. we’ll see. I don’t have good vibes either.

      We’ll see what happens when precip starts. See how much cooling we get.

  40. The one thing with areas near the coast is the ocean temps are mild which is why I’ve been saying if you live at or near the coast I think wind and rain is going to be the big ticket items with this storm. With that said I would not be surprised to see a slushy inch or two.

  41. just did some snooping…early coastal front hints at being set up
    just SW of Boston. Wind in West Roxbury E to ENE, Wind in Westwood
    NNE.

    We’ll see how the afternoon goes on.

  42. Old Salty your right wind direction is key. Snowing in NYC and Phialdelphia right now. I just heard if NYC gets more than an inch it will be the most snow in October since the Civil War.

  45. A lot of places that were supposed to be raining at first are coming in with observations of snow, just something to consider. Granted that it does not mean the same thing will happen here, but there is trend going on right now.

  47. Its showing the dynamics with this storm system has and good evaporational cooling happening. One surprise to me is NYC having snow right now. I did not expect them to change over till the evening hours.

  48. Another YouTube moment for Jim Cantore as he was reporting live from Harrisburg, PA talking to a meteorologist from there thunder happened.

  49. Where are the snow amount totals measured from in the depth contest? I was hoping to be close but not reaching it before Christmas. Good luck to one and all this will be a storm to refer to in the future for sure.

  52. Walked the beach locally. Good thing the storm isnt 12 hrs earlier, as the ocean wasnt too whipped up yet, but the tide was extremely high !! It is quite dark considering the sun is near its high point for the day and rain seems imminent……. I see heavy snow in NYC.

  53. 1pm obs….

    Danbury and Meriden, CT ….heavy snow
    Chester and Oxford, CT….moderate snow winds N/NE

    Boston buoy wind 070 degrees, was 080 last hour and most stations backed in their wind by about 10 degrees during the last hour.

    Raining now in Marshfield, with a steady and gusty NE wind. Am most concerned about power issues tomorrow morning on that N/NW wind and wondering how high the gusts may go.

    1. And even down to parts of the shoreline of CT from New Haven points west it is snowing. West of New Haven rain.

  55. NWS lowered the snow totals for the immediate Boston area.. They are going with a much slower change over to snow. I most worried about the wind that we are going to be dealing with here on the coast.

    1. Hadi,

      Boston is 48F now. After a few hours of precip, what do you think the temp might fall to given that the dp’s are in the low 30s ?

        1. Agreed. And there’s still relatively dry air to your north, with dewpoints in coastal NH and Maine in the mid to upper 20s. Just need the wind to back some more and I think it will…..I also think the snow in far southern CT and NYC shows what will happen to the column with the more northerly component to the wind.

    2. They have been going back and forth all morning, and based on the 12z runs of the GFS and NAM, no reason should the amounts be lowered…

    3. Or it could be that they are just using basic meteorology like they should have been all along, instead of treating this system like it’s occurring in December or January. 🙂

    4. Yeah but meantime just southwest of boston in the Stoughton/Brockton area, rain is already mixing with snow. I don’t agree with NWS but will see:)

  57. NWS point forecast pushed the rain/snow line further west and delayed the changeover time considerably! Also, accumulations on them were dropped big time (example, 1-2 inches at Bedford.) Wonder what that means…

    3. well now that is disappointing as I assume less for Framingham – sorry but I’m excited about this and can’t help myself

    1. Charlie my daughter and son in law are driving from Uxbridge to Hopkinton and have had snow mixed the entire way

    1. Most of those locations have not had steady onshore winds directly off warm water prior to this. Boston’s surface wind was NE-N earlier, but just above that, due east. It’s not the exact surface observation that matters here, but the fact that you could observe the east wind in the stratus clouds moving due east to west for hours this morning.

  63. Hi guys- just got to the cape, cold rain here and windy. I did not want to miss out so brought the computer. If my south shore friends could keep me posted on that front, I will be are cape cod weather spotter. Off now to get my sons face painted I will check back in a few. Take care guys.

  64. Here’s the thing: There are enhanced areas on radar, more intense precip. Those are going to cause mixing, even brief changing to wet snow. But it doesn’t sustain. All along the NAM has been pointing to an initial thrust of moderate precipitation well before it was cold enough to go all the way to snow and stay that way. A little later (early evening) we will be in an area of light to borderline moderate precip with only heavier pockets. This setup affords rain with occasional mix/change in heavier bursts. You cannot ignore the warm boundary layer here folks. I was standing outside for 90 minutes this morning watching low clouds streaming in from the due east on winds that were blowing just above light north northeast winds at the surface. The air above us is very very mild.

    1. The snow is going to have to happen on the back side of a storm that will be rapidly intensifying but also tightening up and accelerating away. Most amounts are over-forecast.

  65. Why is NY then getting pounded with snow, i am guessing bc they are much further away from the storm center?

  67. Solid moderate all snow Southbridge

    I’m off to watch it’s the Great pumpkin in Hopkinton – OUTSIDE – oh yay 🙂

  70. interesting note from NWS

    SNOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO S MA. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY
    WITH TEMP TRENDS AS IT/S FAIRLY CLEAR THAT WITH ANY SNOWFALL…THE
    LOW-LVLS QUICKLY COOL AND MOISTEN TO TEMPS NEAR FRZG…VSBYS FALL
    DRAMATICALLY. CT DOT WEBCAMS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ACCUM
    EVEN ON ROADWAYS. THROWING OUT MOS AND FOCUSING ON THE HRRR AND
    THE LATEST 12Z NCEP WRF.

    2. Not a dud. We’re seeing the well-spoken-about uncertainty playing out already. Regardless of differences in forecasts, just about all met’s, myself included, noted that there was a great degree of uncertainty because of the rareness of this event.

  74. Flip flopping here. Mostly rain except when the yellow radar echoes come over. What they seem to be missing is that precip actually lightens up for a while later at which time the dynamic cooling ceases for a while.

  75. The special weather statement said a change to snow by late afternoon, r there like 4 or 5 different forecast, 1 is saying it’s not gonna be as bad, 1 is saying it’s gonna be worst than we think, I feel like it won’t cause Many problems as a whole

  77. The radar to me seems to b moving ice snow line ENE rather quickly and I’m not seeing any rain behind it. Am I reading this wrong?

    1. Think of the conditions that are in place here. The temp a few thousand feet above us is well above freezing.

  79. A Tweet from BB
    Quicker backing wind along the coast would shift big snows toward Boston as well. HIGH STAKES here!

  80. Those of you who know me here, know that I am not a hype type of forecaster.

    THIS IS A BIG DEAL!

    The mesoscale bands out in front of the low, the dynamic rapid cooling through the boundry layer, this has the potential to be historic and very damaging west of 128 through the Berkshires. It is snowing so hard and gotten so cold so fast that the conditions are already dangerous and early accums are way out in front of the forecasts. The only saving graces could be a traditional dry slot setting up in the CT River Valley and slightly lesser amounts of qpf due to a further south and east solution for passage of the low that seems to be verifying.

    Be careful. Help neighbors out. There is going to be damage tomorrow

    2. Coastal it is. keep me posted on what is going on there through the night please, if you can as well Tom would be great. Raining heavy here and the wind has picked up, also feels colder. My guess is no snow here on cape, that is sticking snow. I will keep checking and looking for any changes. Time for trick or treating.

  83. Just light – moderate rain here in Sudbury – at the moment. Haven’t had a chance to look at the radar. When I was out around noon the sky looked weird. Amazing clouds (I think nimbostratus, not sure if there is such a thing, have to review my studying on weather!) coming in from the east. I apologize to those who want this to be a big snowstorm, but I am not ready for that yet. Late Dec. is the earliest I prefer. But mother nature is boss and we get what we get. As I look out window again, there could be some snow mixing in now.

  89. hi guys,

    just got home from soccer game. roads are awful-fully snowcovered both main and secondary including interstate 190 in Sterling. to JMA’s point, the temperature crashed like nothing i’ve seen. It went from 39 on the car thermometer to 33 in less than 20 minutes. Snow is turning finer now and probably close to 3″ now.

    trees and lines are sagging pretty heavily already

  92. As expected, the area of lighter precip is onto the South Coast now and should move north into Metro Boston in the next few hours, lightening up the precip and meaning mostly rain.

    1. Darn I had some good ideas about where to go :).

      It feels as if rain/snow line will stick along 495 West of that will get a lot of snow and east not much of anything. And that is based solely on my gut feeling and not so much as one ounce of knowledge. Maybe a little bit of trying to challenge mother nature tossed in cause I’m going to be so disappointed if we don’t get snow. Just losing power will be enough for me at this point !!

  95. This type of event cannot be 100% forecast-ed. Watch the radar, check the tweets and look at your window.

    1. I’m sitting in the window :). And mother nature must not have liked my post. As soon as I hit send it turned to all snow here

    1. Loag down t o 30 wind at 42.5 degreees. much better than the 21 earlier.
      The wind, she is BACKING!!

      1. Hadi if you want snow try my method. As soon as I said we would not have any it appeared and is now accumulating on every surface.

  103. hadi….thanks for that snow box……..i’m right in the bullseye.

    glad to hear some of you guys are starting to flip over now……i can’t have all the fun myself!!

    getting close to 4″ now. trees are sagging real badly. went to pull the generator cord to make sure all is well and I pulled the cord right out! all the guts inside the cord housing are junk.

  105. This was my concern. Colder solution winning out within the wildcard zone of the i95 corridor. Snowfall totals will be higher in this region.

    1. Longshot. It took no time to start accumulating in framingham when it turned to snow. The leaves are already holding snow.

  108. what do you guys figure punxsuawaney phil’s thinking today.

    think his clock might get screwed up and figure he’s gonna stick his head out before christmas.

  109. Good news for the people who are not fans of this snow above normal temps in the Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
    This is the biggest October snow I have seen in my life and one I’ll remember for a long time. I am hoping I don’t lose power.

  110. Well it appears the forecast of more snow is gonna be right, heavy snow here in wrentham and accumulating 🙂

    1. Same here in Hyannis. The big story here will be the wind and rain. It’t to bad for the kids at this resort. They were to have a bonfire tonight.

  112. The NWS’s amounts are still the same as mine for the most part, except they have more in the Worcester Hills than I have.

    Still think the intensity of the precip. may be a factor in the next 6 hours. Elevation will be key as well.

    I know nobody wants to hear any of this from me, but it is what it is. 🙂

  114. Scott I’ll try to send some good vibes to push the snow toward you. Its been snowing pretty good here in the interior.

  115. Don’t be surprised if between 8PM & 10PM there is a sudden push of the rain/snow line back to the northwest, possibly all the way out through the 95 belt. There’s an area of warmer air a few thousand feet up, the was evident on the IR satellite, in the form of mid level convection south of Long Island, moving in the same manor as the winds at about 700mb. There is also a pseudo dry-slot just south of New England getting set to move in. This will be responsible for periodic lessening of the intensity of the precipitation. These 2 factors will limit accumulation from 95 south and east through midnight.

      1. Futurecast is remarkably accurate. People should pay more attention to the detail in it. Mistakes are made when too many generalizations are drawn from model data.

        1. I find that surprising. I never liked it because it would depict thunderstorms in the morning that never become.

    1. The backside of this storm will be our turn Hadi, the question is how intense the precip will be during that time and how long it lasts.

      1. Hehehehe. Thanks TK High point for me would be losing power. Of course no one else in the house agrees 🙂

  122. Sudbury has about 1, maybe close to 2 inches of snow now. Our lights have been flickering off and on for awhile. 🙁 Not much wind at this point. Very pretty out but I still wish it had waited another month or so.

    2. Hi rain shine. Not sure it’s a good sign that they are flickering all the way from you to where I am. Usually it’s more by neighborhood.

  126. Checking in with wind whipped rain and a colder 43F. The wind has definitely backed some and see that its 39F now at Logan.

    I hope those that are getting snow are enjoying it !

    See that the Boston buoy AIR temp is down to 42F. To me, the magic number on that one for Logan to snow would be around 36F and for coastal south shore to snow, probably 33F or 34F. Will continue to watch. I think there’s ocean enhanced rain taking place down here, judging by the look of the radar.

  127. I have to admit – except for the potential of no lights or heat, it’s all kind of exciting. I love the weather – anytime of year! Even with freaky snowstorm in October! 🙂

      1. Tom,

        No not yet. Only been all snow for a short time and is it
        ever WET out there as you well know.

  131. o.s.

    sorry to hear about your wind gear.

    that happened to me last year…i found the wind cups in the woods in the spring about 75′ from where I out them on the house ridgeline….

    it was windy that night.

  136. Pittsfield has reported 10″. I just turned on Channel 5 and they reported 80,000 homes without electricity. Harvey’s forecast is coming.

  137. Channel 5 upped their totals.
    Boston 3-6″
    Between 95 & 495 6-9″
    Worcester 9-12″
    Higher elevations 12+”

  138. Keeps increasing! Text forecast for JP from NWS now calling for 4-8 tonight!! And the warning calls for thundersnow!!

    1. Feels like the Dec. 2005 storm. Explosive development, thundersnows on the backside and strongest winds as the storm goes by. I actually think my neighborhood may get a coating to 1 inch around sunrise tomorrow morning.

  139. Heard there was thundersnow Hudson and newton and moving east. Hurricane wind warning out on ocean according to Bouchard. He thought could be 70 mph gusts on outer cape

    Everything slowed down here for a bit

  140. Pete B.

    Boston/Coast 1-4″
    Metro West 4-8″ (Seemed to indicate more between 95 & 495)
    Worcester 8-12″

    Talked about dry slotting but “seemed” to give Worcester the better chance of having that happen. Sometimes I can’t always follow Pete.

  141. Todd on BZ just gave higher totals.

    Coast 1-3″
    Boston 3-6″
    Between 95 & 495 6-12″
    Worcester 12+”

  147. The tide is currently running 1.6 ft above normal and that is slowly rising.

    I wonder what the snow cover is going to do to tomorrow night’s low temps with clear skies and diminishing winds.

  148. Precip intensity dropping off in response to what I said above.

    My road that was covered with snow is now just wet and I have a light mix of snow and rain, temp up 2 degrees in the past 15 minutes.

    I’ve made very little change to the forecast, only a few tweaks, and a new blog is up. Start commenting!

    Heading out for a while – will be checking in from my new location in a while.

Comments are closed.