Weekend Starts Cold, Ends Mild

62 Comments

2:51AM

No significant changes to the previous discussion.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny. High 47-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 20-25 inland valleys, 26-31 elsewhere. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 58.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 41. High 49.

62 thoughts on “Weekend Starts Cold, Ends Mild”

  1. Thanks for the update TK !!

    Interesting to see the morning obs…most areas in the 20s to 30s. Meanwhile Marshfield and the Cape are reporting low to mid 40s. There are low clouds streaming in off the ocean and the breeze is pretty strong.

    Wonder if this low pressure off of the NC coast, as it moves SE and sits out over the ocean could acquire some tropical characteristics slowly over the next several days…

    Cant help but notice the presence of the SE USA ridge on the long range GFS. I believe this may be a feature associated with La Nina, but because of all that blocking last winter, it had little chance to form. At least so far, the Greenland blocking is not evident this year and the ridge keeps reestablishing itself on the long range GFS.

    Happy weekend all !!

    1. I saw that. Always interesting to see how the different regions vary, even over a relatively small area such as southern New England. One of the 5 “Almanacs” that I have aquired mentions tropical remnants around the 1st week of November. (More on these almanacs later…)

      Not only is it on the GFS, but the reliable Euro. At mid month, it has a SE Ridge and a carved-out bowl-trough in the SW. At the very least, this is a strong sign that the mild regime continues at least through mid November (I suspect beyond to some degree).

    2. Hi Tom- hope all is well. could you please explain some more to me about this SE ridge, how that may or may not determine things this winter. Is your thinking still the same with not much snow, is this ridge a sign. Thank’s Tom.

      1. The southeast ridge keeps Florida and some of the southeast states warmer than normal, especially during the winter. It can help to create a big temp contrast between Canada’s cold and the southeast warmth. So usually, if there’s one present, there tends to be storminess somewhere near that contrast…..If the southeast ridge is strong and pretty far north, than the storms are going west of New England……I guess I’m guessing that there will be less blocking in Greenland this winter, a chance for stronger SE Ridges and more often than not, storms going west of New England…..so, I’ll stick with my prediction. 🙂 …..I’ll also predict one day to stay below zero for a high at Logan. I thought that last year too and that didnt happen. We’ll see.

    1. I’m still in the mode of thinking shared by Joe Bastardi & Joe D’Aleo about a decent shot of winter weather from as early as Thanksgiving weekend through most of December and part of January. I see it unnecessary to dispute the reasons given for this, especially since the thinking also included a mild regime overall continuing until then.

  3. Just a quick note about the almanacs: I have acquired 5 of them, one of course being the “real deal” Old Farmer’s Almanac, the others some form of imitation. All of them include weather forecasts, though one seems to have copied directly from another, only paraphrasing slightly. I’m thinking of, for fun, listing their forecasts and then verifying them with the actual weather for the year 2012 (at least part of the year anyway). I can start doing this sooner as they all start their forecasts no later than November.

    As you probably know, I put no stock in almanac forecasts, so this would be just for the fun of it. I can already tell you right now that TOFA’s forecast for early November is a complete miss.

    1. I don’t put much value in almanacs either but think it would be tons of fun to see how they compare both to each other and the real deal. Thanks TK

  5. 2 more quick notes: If the name “TK” changes to Woods Hill Weather or some form of it, that’s just me making a few changes. Also, I’ll be in Epping NH at a race from late afternoon through at least mid evening. If the wind drops to calm there, which I suspect it will, the temperature will nose-dive tonight. At least there won’t be any wind chill. I’ll pass along an observation from there later tonight when I update the blog.

    Lastly, don’t forget to turn your clocks back tonight! Sunset in Boston is 4:32PM Sunday! I love the dark days. Have a great weekend all!

  7. Both the NAO and AO are forecast to tank in the long range.
    Alaska is headed for a below normal period in terms of temperatures, which usually means we warm up.
    When December starts or even the end of this month, that below normal period in Alaska should translate eastward.
    Patience snow lovers, arctic air takes time to build and spread out.

    1. The 06z GFS shows a ridge building in Alaska and a strong trough digging in the east at the end of the run.

    2. They were both forecast to tank in the long range per GFS previously too, and did not. In fact the GFS once had this weekend as a cool, damp, rainy, drizzly one.

  8. As much as I hate to admit the Farmers’ Almanac had last weekend’s storm calling for stormy conditions on the Atlantic Seaboard. They got lucky. I am hoping they are wrong for Christmas since they are calling for heavy rainfall and possible flooding just prior to Christmas. They are calling for some snow to start 2012.

    1. My daughter just said she heard that whatever date the first snow occurs on according to the farmers almanac there will be that many storms that winter so that’d be 29? Or was first snow 27th. Either way lots of snow JJ

      1. Hey Vicki…. I heard that one about when the first snow happens tells how many snow events will happen. In fact during the storm one week ago I was saying to my mom 29 snow events this winter.
        According to The Farmers’ Almanac keep an eye on February since there could be some potent east coast storms.

  9. CHANGE ALL BATTERIES IN CARBONS AND SMOKE DETECTORS! IF YOU ARE MISSING THEM, PLEASE ADD THEM. PER NFPA, ONE SMOKE DETECTOR IN EACH BED ROOM, ONE SMOKE DETECTOR IN THE HALLWAY WITHIN 10′ OF EVERY BED ROOM DOOR, ONE CARBON DETECTOR WITH IN 10′ OF THE BEDROOM DOOR, SMOKE AT THE BOTTOM AND TOP OF EVERY STAIR CASES, AND A CARBON WITHIN CLOSE RANGE OF EVERY FOSSIL FUEL BURNING EQUIPMENT. KEEP DETECTORS AWAY FROM KITCHEN AND BATHROOMS. SMOKE DETECTORS SHOULD BE PHOTOELECTRIC TYPE.

  10. When we were out today, I kept looking at the sun around 4:30pm as it wasnt too high above the horizon and thought, this will be 3:30pm tomorrow. 🙁

      2. I like the early sunsets around the Holidays to view all the lights and decorations. Its the first few weeks of it in November and starting in January that I find tough.

  11. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
    — Changed Discussion —
    MAIN POINTS…
    * DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK
    * STORMY WX FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
    * SIGNIFICANLY COLDER AND POTENTIAL SNOW CHCS LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY

    FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY…
    GOING WITH THE LESS PROGRESSIVE FCST TREND…TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW
    AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT LIFT N/E BY LATE FRI ALONG WITH BETTER
    FORCING. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR. THE
    BROADER TROF AXIS LAGS AND THUS ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE E
    THRU THE RGN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY…TAPERING TO SLGT CHC
    POPS INTO FRI EVNG. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF SHRTWV
    DISTURBANCES…NEVERTHELESS THE EXPECTATION IS LOW-MID LVL RESIDUAL
    MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ENHANCED LIFT WILL LEND TO SCTD RAIN/SNOW
    SHOWERS…THE BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW WILL BE TOWARDS LATE FRI-FRI EVNG
    AND MORESO ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MUCH OF THE ENERGY IS OUT BY
    SAT…WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING. EXPECT
    LLVLS TO BE FAIRLY WELL-MIXED RESULTING IN WINDY WLY WINDS AND
    STRATOCU…WILL ALSO GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS WITH EXPECTANT MIXING AND
    CONV ALONG W SLOPES OF TERRAIN TO RESULT IN SHOWERY WX. MIXING UP TO
    H85 WHERE TEMPS RANGE -5 TO -7C YIELD MAX TEMPS SAT AROUND THE MID
    40S.

    1. We will see what happens Coastal…but the CPC is calling for extreme warmth (and quite wet) through next Saturday the 19th!

      1. Correction…next Saturday is the 12th. Anyway, the warmth is expected for the next two weeks through September 19th! 🙂

  12. Tonight is my favorite of the year next to Christmas. I get to set the clocks BACK ONE HOUR to Standard Time! I am looking forward to those “early” bright mornings and “early” sunsets with the Christmas lights coming on after 4:00 pm. 🙂

    Oh, and not to mention ONE HOUR EXTRA SLEEP…I have to be at work tomorrow morning at 6:30 am. My body gets used to Standard Time almost immediately, but Daylight Saving Time, not for 2-3 months at least.

    1. Good heavens were we related in another life. I never met anyone who looked forward to the early sunsets.

      1. I absolutely LOVE the early sunsets. I posted on FB the other day: “The Dark Days are approaching! :-)”

        1. It’s so nice to be where people understand that. No one I know likes the early sunsets – this is great TK – thanks again and again 🙂

          I like to start a fire after work, turn all the lights off, light a few candles and sit in the living room where I can see both the fire and outside the window – with a glass of wine of course or maybe now a beer since my son has me interested in the different types. It’s especially fun when the Christmas decorations are up and I have the Christmas lights on.

          1. The BEST. As much as I love the longer daylights of Spring and early Summer, I equally if not more love when we go the other way into the dark days and colder months. I often say that October-December are my favorite 3 months of the year, probably just edging out May-July. I think my favorite time of day is from about an hour before sunset through twilight.

          2. It’s a great time of day TK. Now that my kids are grown and we no longer worry about early dinners we will sit and enjoy that time of evening and often not even start dinner until 6:30 or after

    1. It’s odd how you don’t sleep as well when there isn’t power. I kept waking up and listening to the quiet

  14. This is easily the coldest night of the year in SE Mass. It is already 29F in Taunton and around freezing most other places.

  16. I wish I could explain to my 2 year old that he can sleep more and not get us up at an ungodly hour tomorrow morning!! I don’t think he understood me when I told him about changing the clocks!
    🙂

      1. What time did he get up?? My grandson was up at the new 5:00 – not sure when my granddaughter was up – but I remember those days well. I always thought the spring forward was a bit easier

        1. We had mosquitoes Thursday night when we were sitting out on the deck – I was incredibly surprised – and there were a fair amount of them.

  20. Looking forward to those nice mild temps before our next chance of rain later in the week. I think this is the longest stretch of dry weather we have had this year with the time we had precipitation was last weekend.

  21. Latest CPC continues to show above normal temps in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with below normal temps in the west. Good news for those of you like me that need to get yard work done.

    1. I love chilly Novembers and we’ll have our share of chilly days even within the mild pattern. But yes it is good news. Lots of yard work for me left to do. Get leaves up, and lay cords for Christmas lights down before Thanksgiving!

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