A Seasonable Chill To Start December

147 Comments

4:52PM

High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend, though a reinforcing weak cold front will pass the region on Friday night. We’ll be on the cooler side of high pressure through Saturday with a seasonable chill in the air, which might feel rather cold to some who have gotten used to the very mild weather of the past few months.

We get back on the warm side of the high pressure area by Sunday, and then a frontal system will slowly approach from the west early  next week. A mild and unsettled period of weather will be the result for Monday-Tuesday. As we get into the colder air Wednesday, we will have to watch for a low pressure wave forming on a front that will have just passed. This may bring a chance of rain and/or snow to parts of the region around midweek. For the moment, based on trends and persistence, I’ll lean wet versus white.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 44-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 41.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 51.

MONDAY: Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 54.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain showers. Low 44. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain/mix. Low 35. High 42.

147 thoughts on “A Seasonable Chill To Start December”

  1. 18z GFS confirms the inconsistency that the GFS is having overall at this time. It keeps it cold in the long range with a progressive storm track well south of us.

    1. Ok My computer is acting up. So I was saying 3am start tomorrow and already tierd. It has been great this week working outside in just a sweatshirt, and leaving the house at 5am in one as well. Tk I am sorry your dad is not feeling well, I hope his meds start working soon. I also want to welcome the new people here to the blog, this is a special blog and soon you will see that. As I have been saying all along relax snowlovers your .winter will be coming. You know how I feel I would love it if it stayed like this. If I did not have a storm to work this winter that would be fine with me. But I have a feeling are crew will be out at least once before christmas, my guess the weekend before as this has been the case the last few years. Time will tell but winter is coming.

    1. When the ice on water will freeze to one inch John. And it was a great day wasn’t it. A little more of a winter feel

  4. So regarding that December snow the last four decembers we have received over 100 inches of snow. It seems it always snows right before christmas, that’s why I am sticking with a plowable storm for most if not all right before the holiday. Of course this is going by gut feeling.

      2. I’m glad we think alike. I would though consider moving your guess up some like the second to last week. Put that down in your notes so we can bring it backup. By the way I put on the santa suit last night getting ready for Sunday, I was thinking of your brother. My son and his friend will be riding with me inside the truck as elves. I will ride in on top of the ladder. I thought it would be safer for them inside. Last year my wife and son were elves and we all rode on top. But without her I thought it would be best if the boys were inside.

  8. Just introducing myself. Thanks for the invitation, Shawn. I’m more of a lurker than a contributor, but looking forward to learning more through this blog!

    2. Look for BM I would love for him to be here. How about snowballmanny to, just kidding on him he was a real piece of work.

        1. You better believe that, unreal. There was one even worse than him. I think he may have been all of the trolls. He was moving someplace warm I remember, does that ring a bell.

          2. The troll was mostly one person, but not the same person who was “landi” and 300 other screen names.

            BaileyMan (ImAlwaysRight) reads this blog, I am pretty sure of it.

  10. Hi guys…

    Thanks Vicki for the record-keeping duties.

    To reiterate…1″ of ice thickness on Jamaica Pond in Boston. Old Salty is the designated spotter.

  13. The BZ blog started out nice but it was a few people who ruined it. I don’t post as much there. I like that on this blog we could have nice civil conversations just like the one on global warming a few weeks ago where everyone respect everyone’s opinion.

    1. I agree. There has not been one problem here. This blog has formed itself and I don’t think that will ever change, for one nobody here wan’ts that and Tk can ban anybody. Here we can agree to disagree. I stumbled across the wbz blog and it was good till the trolls took it over. I have never been part of a blog it’s not my thing. But when I found Bz I got hooked because like you guys I like weather. Now I can’t go a day without checking in here.

  14. I have liked weather ever since I was young. There is not a day that goes by where I don’t talk about the weather here on this blog or with my family and friends.

  15. Snowball manny was the funniest of the bunch for sure!!! He was always cooking up a storm and mixing the ingredients:)
    🙂
    🙂

    1. My husband is thrilled I can come here when a storm is brewing. He still has to listen to me but says I spend enough time here reading and learning to give him a break!!

      1. Hadi, I can totally relate to you on that one.

        Vicki – I’ll go with 12/27 for the 1″ pond ice depth and 58.4″ for the snow total if you didn’t get it from the last blog.

      2. Hadi, I can totally relate to you on that one.

        Vicki – I’ll go with 12/27 for the 1″ pond ice depth and 58.4″ for the snow total if you didn’t get it from the last blog.

        1. Tom, I don’t remember laughing so hard as when your daughter ran into the room to report storm damage when a twig fell on your roof during Irene………..mostly because it was so funny but also because I knew having listened to you talk about Irene for a week (as we all were to our significant others) why your wife put her up to it

  18. 0z GFS looks more interesting for middle of next week. Looks like it wants to stall a front right along the coast and ride waves of low pressure up along it. The low on Wednesday tracks just offshore as the 0 line slides closer to the coast. That’s a shift east and more in line with the Euro. Potential for some accumulating snow inland?

    1. The Euro had hinted at this possibility as well (for later in the week). Even if successive runs lose it a bit, history shows that it’s something to keep in mind for now.

  19. I dont know what was more amazing about November….The warm temps (+5.7F at Logan for the month) or the Bruins (12-0-1).

    Next Monday and Tuesday’s high and especially low temperatures (with mild SW wind, cloudcover and maybe rain) should have many New England reporting stations off and running with huge temperature departures for December.

    1. yup:

      WILL DELAY PRECIP ONSET AS MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW
      DOWN THE ERD PROGRESSION OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED
      PATTERN. IN ANY CASE….A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD BUT UNSETTLED
      WX WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE MON INTO AT LEAST WED.

  21. Once these weather patterns lock in they could stay that way for a good 6-8 weeks and I don’t see any signs of a wintry pattern setting up as we start the new month although I would be surprised if we go the whole month without some wintry precipitation.

    1. Yes, but:

      1. It is the 06Z GFS
      2. Even if it verified, it is still too WARM!

      Very Interesting though and we’ll have to watch it as things do change.

      1. If, and that is a big IF, enough cold air would move in aloft
        and it WERE all SNOW, here is the progged total event precipitation:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F01%2F2011+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=186&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

        Unless the 06Z Gfs is just toying with us, and it probably is, this
        system needs to be watched carefully.

  23. Henry_Margusity Henry Margusity
    It’s possible that 60% of the country could have snow cover by Dec 15.

      1. I am so sorry. Should HAVE checked the dates on that.
        !()@U()#()!@&*(*#)!*(@()&#^&$^&#*%$*@

        Well it was a nice chart had the dates been more current.

  28. This is what I have for ice over dates – as I said before I just copy from the other lists I have which is why your name might be there with no date beside it. Who did I miss? Who wants to add?

    Philip
    JimmyJames
    Mark 12/27
    Vicki 1/29
    Rainshine 1/18
    Tom
    John 12/15
    Old Salty 1/20
    Scott 12/20
    Hadi
    Retrac 1/13
    Longshot
    Coastal 12/23
    Charlie
    Merlin
    Tjammer
    TK

    1. oh and if your name isn’t there it’s just because I don’t have a previous guess from you so please feel free to add !!

  30. 12Z GFS is in. Different than 06Z.

    Close at 156 Hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F01%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=159&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Certainly SNOW at 159 hours, but not too much left:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F01%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=159&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  33. Vicki, put me down for 1/6/2012 for 1″ ice.

    Also, I am curious…what is the average date for bodies of water freezing over?

    2. I can’t say for sure. The pond in question generally freezes over anywhere from late Dec to Mid-January. Hopefully Hadi will share his thoughts.

  34. TK,

    Any particular reason why we can’t include more than 1 link in a post? Trying to have
    2 links results in the post “awaiting moderation” and then it typically goes away. Anything you can do? Often times, it would be nice to be able to include more than 1 link in a post.

    Many thanks

  35. Latest Accuweather Winter Outlook for us:
    Northeast Not Off the Hook

    Pastelok pointed out that this winter in the Northeast will likely the lack of long-lasting arctic cold. However, there can still be cold snaps with below-normal temperatures. Overall, temperatures are expected to average out near normal to just above normal.

    With a storm track favoring more storms cutting across the interior, above-normal snowfall is more likely across the interior Northeast.

    Snowfall amounts were bumped up into the above-normal range farther south and east across New England, following the recent historic late-October snowstorm.

    In the updated forecast, near-normal lake-effect snow will fall around the eastern Great Lakes. However, snow amounts could still end up above normal in this zone from storms cutting away from the Northeast Coast.

    With a storm track farther north and west compared to last year, snowfall will be near to below normal for the highly populated I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Stormy weather is still expected, but there will be more events with a wintry mix or a changeover to rain.

  37. I would like to welcome those who recently joined this blog. Please feel free to post not only during stormy times, but the “boring” times as well! 🙂

    Coastal:
    Has WeatherWizard been contacted about joining us over here?
    Have you heard from smm77? He is interested and told him to contact you.

    1. Hi Philip-Yes I have joined and am using Scott77 as my username vs smm77 in the WBZ blog. In regards to the upcoming weather I’m really not seeing evidence of the pattern breaking going out to the 14 day mark. I think long range models have to be taken with a grain of salt at the moment, but time will tell.

        1. Yes happy to be here! You are all great! I believe Matt Souza from the wbz site wanted to join as well. Feel bad for the flack he gets over there. Seems like a good kid.

          1. Scott77 welcome. Have you seen the “contests” we have in progress? There are three

            1) inches of snow for the season at Logan
            2) date the weather pattern will change
            3) when the pond by Old Salty’s home will freeze to 1 inch thick.

            If you post I will record them – just make sure I note that I’ve seen your post

          2. Hi Vickie,

            Here is my input:

            1) inches of snow for the season at Logan-37
            2) date the weather pattern will change-12/14
            3) when the pond by Old Salty’s home will freeze to 1 inch thick.-12/17

  40. I guess it appears that the I-95 corridor is now officially off the hook for even “normal” snowfall this upcoming 2011-12 winter season. I should have known when we got that October snow, it was a very bad sign to say the least.

    I will live with my prediction of 53″ and I expect others to do the same…no changes are part of the rules I assume.

    I am wondering, however…is it possible for a snowy/cold March-early April perhaps? We are somewhat due. Lately snows have been somewhat absent in that timeframe.

  41. Only time will tell! Remember all it takes is 2-3 storms loaded with QPF at the right time and we can be close to average.

  42. I gotta tell ya we all may love the snow but most people don’t want snow and it seems like everyone’s happy, especially when u listen to the news station, the stations r almost giddy from hearing no significant snow for as far as they can see

  43. I personally don’t think we are off the hook with snow next week…
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111201%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_156_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=156&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=12%2F01%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  44. That storm system needs to be watched. As I said the other day lets see where we are in terms of snowfall at the end of January before we make a judgement on the winter.

    1. I think it was a bit pre-mature for Accuweather to make their adjustments to this winter’s forecast being that it’s only Dec. 1

      1. Scott, they are probably taking the October snows into factor. When Boston gets “any” accumulating snow in that month below normal snowfall occurs for that upcoming winter. In its 100+ year weather history, there have been NO acceptions. 🙁

        1. It just doesn’t feel like its dec, I know it’s not but it’s almost like the sun feels warmer, I saw a winter predicted forecast of 15-30 inches for the I95corridor Boston to Providence which is well below normal, with the next 2 weeks above normal temps

    1. Yup, but then what did you really expect? Battle of the GFS vs ECMWF!!!
      Let’s give it a few days to play out. We’ll see, but odds would favor a rain
      event that’s for sure.

        1. Henry is nicknamed the hypster IMO he’s the perfect dream forecaster for a snow lover to only get nothing, I’ve been so mad at him at times years ago for saying its coming and could be a big one to get nothing

          1. Exactly why I don’t listen to him! Lol
            We do better monitoring all of the models and making a reasonable guess.

  50. That high pressure cell off the coast of BC just sits there and spins the entire GFS Run. Though I did notice a little south and westward movement of it. Also there are low’s zipping right through southern Greenland, no cold blocking high. I remember last year we were getting antsy during the first half of December. Only to be rewarded I believe the week before Christmas and for six weeks after wards. Same as this year, I know long range forecasts models have low probability far out, but it shows the same thing all the way to December 17th.

  51. From what the 12z euro is looking like, it’s trying to place a strong high east of Greenland, not sure what that’ll mean.

    1. I think it means absolutley nothing. If you back day by day, you will see that
      it is a High that was over New England that just slowly moved Neward to South of Greenland. Would be nice if it meant something, but I don’t think so.

      Perhaps Tk could comment.

    1. That is so hard to do, not knowing when or IF the NAO will turn negative.

      Given that you range may actually look pretty good. If you are going to guess, I think it should be an exact number and not a range. Just mho.

      I therefore, guess: 6 inches

  53. From the NWS in Gray, ME this PM:

    FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKES A DIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN HANDLING OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL COME TO A CRAWL AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY….WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD
    INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IN SUCH SITUATIONS IN THE PAST HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS
    OFF THE COAST.

  54. I found this great teleconnection discussion from the NWS at Buffalo, NY. Hope you find it as fascinating as I did. The end result is, looking like Winter will be delayed until late December/Early January. Lol my 1/2 date is looking better all of the time!
    (subject to a surprise at any point!! )

    LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD…THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY POSITIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/ INDEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION RELOADS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
    /MJO/ WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLOW ORBIT THROUGH PHASE 4-5 OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. A LOOK AT MJO COMPOSITES FOR THE EXPECTED OUTCOME OF PHASE 4-5 ACROSS NORTH AMERICA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER.

    GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS…ANY SHOTS OF COLD AIR OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BRIEF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST COMMON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER. A LOGICAL PROGRESSION OF THE MJO PAST THE END OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST…AND ALSO THE EXPECTATION OF A BETTER CHANCE
    OF NEGATIVE AO BY THE END OF DECEMBER GIVEN THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION /QBO/…EXPECT A PROGRESSION TOWARDS MORE CONSISTENT COLD AND SNOW BY LATE DECEMBER OR THE START OF JANUARY.

    1. I can wait 🙂
      As long as we eventually get our winter.
      This does not mean it will not snow in December.

  55. Nice day today, enjoyed the nearly 100% sunshine…….getting chilly this evening, feels a little closer to winter.

  57. Can I say that this weather to me in December sucks:). It’s nice being able to say that and not get blasted for it!!
    🙂
    🙂

  58. 16inches by 12/31. I have been saying it all along most or all of us see 1-2 snow storms
    before the end of the year. I will even go out on a limb and say it will be sometime in the last two weeks. I h

    1. We’re do u see that?? From looking at the models other than some short lived cold periods Dec will go down at 2-4 degrees above normal with mostly cold or cool rains IMO, have a great day John 🙂

      2. Charlie if you have been reading my posts I do not see it. This is gut feeling and past december stats. The last 4 winters we have received over 100 inches in december. The first snow in december last season was the monday before christmas and than of course 12/26. In fact we have received so much snow in december that they raised the anticipated amount for this mounth. I will bet anything we get plowable snow sometime in december I will guess sometime in the last two weeks. Now some may be reading this and say this guy is a joke. But I strongly believe we get it this mounth and plowable. Could I be wrong, you bet. But I believe an earlier post said something like 60% snowcover around the 15th. So I guess an expert is even predicting this. I also believe we get a good amount of snow this season and people may be surprised and may even be caught off guard because all this talk of no winter. Everywhere you go people seem to be talking about this warmth and forgeting the fact that winter has not even started yet.

  59. From what I’m seeing is a pattern that doesn’t want to change, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if we get less than an inch of snow for the month of Dec

  62. If I could go back to last year this was the same talk, noe granted some things are different this time around. I will re emphasize that the NAO which we all can agree is key is nearly impossible to predict more then 7-10 days out. With that said I will say we get 8.6 inches this month.

  64. you guys are brave making calls for december. I honestly don’t see much snow right to the new year unless something sneaks up on us. watch for marine air to ruin plenty of storms for at least the coastal plain for much of this winter. i see freezing rain and sleet in our winter future–you know, the storms that put down a quick 2-3 inches of overunning only to crust over with lousy sleet and fr. rain….hate that.

  65. Once again forgive me for being a little slow on admin and updates. Crazy week. Dad sick (but getting better), son sick (missing 2 days of school), car in shop for new head gasket. But I finished the monumental task of decorating, except for setting up the still-working Lionel Train from 1954 around the tree in my parents’ place (tomorrow).

    Update coming shortly!

  67. Retrac I agree overall with you I just think we will get a sneaky storm that will give us some snow just nothing that big. Anytime we are stuck in mild regime we get surprised by something.

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