Weekend Update

77 Comments

3:06AM

It will be a great weekend around New England for doing Christmas shopping, last-minute yard work, or anything else you have planned, except maybe sledding or skiing (other than in some limited areas in the mountains that have had snow or made snow). A chilly day today will be followed by yet another warm-up to end the weekend and start the new week.

Without getting into technical details (which will come about in the comments section below), I think the same overall mild pattern with brief cool/cold shots continues through the 2nd weekend of December, after which we should see a new set-up taking over. My early feeling on the new setup is that it will feature near to below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation, pretty much the opposite of the warm/wet pattern we’ve been in. We shall see if this comes to be, or if the atmosphere is getting ready to pull a fast one on yours truly.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Bright sunshine – few high clouds. High 40-45. Wind N mostly under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: A Triple-C night – clear/calm/cold. Lows drop to the upper 10s inland valleys ranging to near 30 in urban centers and along the immediate shoreline.

SUNDAY: Filtered sunshine – variable high clouds. High 50-55. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers develop and become more numerous at night. Temperature cools through the 50s.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may end as a mix or snow some areas at night. Temperature cools through the 40s.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

77 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  2. Today’s Accuweather Trivia Quiz. Which of the following is true about snow?

    1) Snow can absorb sound.
    2) It can be too cold to snow.
    3) The largest flake was 15″.
    4) It has snowed in all 50 states.

    I actually thought 2 of these were true, but not according to Mr. Joyce.

    1. I saw Joe this AM, but missed this, along with the answer. I would have bought into #1, 2 and 4 which probably means # 3 was the answer.

    2. I am going to guess that 1 and 4 are the right answers. I did see Joe Joyce this morning but at around 7:15 or so – missed the quiz.

  3. A few clouds are rolling in off the ocean……

    Avg hi/lo is decreasing towards 45F/32F……2 days and nights of highs/lows near 60F/50F (Sunday to Tuesday timeframe) will create such large temp departures that for the whole month, it may be tough to get the month to avg normal or below even if it cools off the second half of the month.

  4. TK – thanks for the update and I am glad that your father and son are better.

    I also want to welcome Matt Souza to the blog!

    Have a great day everyone!

  5. I know its not two because it is when its too cold it could still snow but lessen snowfall amounts. I did not see the quiz but I remember hearing at some point all 50 states have seen some snow.

    1. Actually jj last yr the kids had 6 snow days so it hasn’t been so rare there as of the last couple years, they had 4 snow days last yr alone around the 1st week of Feb

  8. Good morning just glancing over the long range it appears Likley that the pattern will break around Christmas or shortly thereafter, my question is is it short lived and we go back to a milder pattern?

  9. Poor Henry M, yesterday he was saying the possibility for no snow in the northeast for the entire month of December, today he’s saying we have a shot of snow next week…

  12. Looking at the models, they appear to be all over the place for next week’s
    activities. Hang on and we’ll see what develops.

    Still a chance it all ends as some snow.

  14. its been really nice reading all the blogs on here. One question when do people think that we will have our first snowfall over 4 inches in southern new england i am thinking after Christmas

    2. My first 4+ inch snow has already occurred in Woburn: 4.7 inches from the October storm.

      Perhaps we can have fun guessing Boston’s first 4+ inch snow.

    3. Matt welcome- I am going by gut feeling only but I believe we see a plowable storm before christmas. I would bet anything on it. Again the last 4 decembers in a row have produced over 100 inches here.

  15. Matt Souza welcome to the blog! I received well over 4 inches from the Pre Halloween Noreaster and lost power for four days. A storm I will never forget.

    1. I live in Billerica mass so we got maybe 2 inches at most Most of the town lost power for about 4 days. I was one of the lucky ones that did not loose power.it was nice not going to school for a week but its sad that everyone needs to make it all up in june when it was only 2 inches , not 4 or more, there was no use for it.

      1. Matt. Lucky is in the eye of the beholder :). We lost it for 4 days in framingham and I was sorry to see it come back so soon.

  16. I am thinking the change will come in 2 steps instead of just one step.
    First change will occur after the wednesday storm system which will be a rain event for most of southern new england but a mix up in northern new england for the ski areas. cooler air comes behind it. It will not be that cold probably in the 40s . The next change will be next weekend with more seasonal temps in the low 40s with the 540 line to the south of new england. Far out but something tells me that a more wintery pattern is going to be forming in the next week and a half.
    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

  17. That would sound right because when these patterns lock in they COULD go on for 6-8 weeks and by then we might have run the course with this current pattern. I hope so anyway as a snowlover.
    Reading the Old Farmers’ Almanac while shopping today blizzard predicted 30-31.
    The other Almanac winter starts with a bang next year with snow threats in November and December. Will see.

  18. Well it could be a very wet lead up to Christmas if that is right. According to them our big snow event will be in late February.
    The Old Farmers’ Almanac has a snowstorm for us at that time with the biggest snow event as I mentioned earlier in late January.
    Both of those have not been that good in my opinion.

  19. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…
    A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE WEST OVER THIS TIME FRAME
    AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
    THE FRONT AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN
    UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER…IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN PULSES OF
    RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THIS TIME.
    THEREFORE…CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
    MUCH OF THIS TIME. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
    HOWEVER…ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE
    PRECIPITATION ENDS AS A BIT OF SNOW LATER WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS
    A PORTION OF THE REGION.

  21. The GFS is still having a hard time chewing through it’s piece of steak with the 18z run which is coming out now.

  22. umm…18z GFS, the 850’s are cold enough for snow, but the surface will be marginal.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111203%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_126_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=126&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F03%2F2011+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

      2. One run, a good 50-100 mile shift, I really can’t buy this run, nor any of the other runs put out by the GFS today. “we will see”

        1. btw, the NAM split em up as well, with one system to the North of us and 84 hours and who knows what lurking…

  24. I’ll root for the GFS…………As for the latest EURO, I think it shows that wave well offshore, to be replaced by high pressure and a return flow warmup next weekend. Interesting to see if this trend continues. I wonder how many 60F days at Logan this month ?

  25. Tom you seem all for the warm weather, I am gonna lock and Charlie up together and hide the two of you for winter:)
    🙂
    🙂

  27. NWS not sold on either cold or warm for next weekend. In fact they are going with cold scenario bc the 12z euro was a drastic change from previous runs.

  28. Also want to let everyone know that we have our 2nd child due in May!! So my wife is happy to hear that snow is lacking in forecast.

    3. Congratulations Hadi!!!! That is great news! We had our second in June. Its exceptionally harder with two under two (not sure how old your first is) but it is so worth. Congrats to you and your family!

  29. JR from ch7 also is on board with my thinking that it will snow sometime in December.
    Seems a few people now are thinking like me.

  30. I had said in past posts I believe the best shot at snow would be the last 2weeks. I will from the 23-31 is when this will come. This has been the case with the last few decembers a storm close to christmas.

      1. I also believe last New Years was the first out of the last 4 that did not involve snow. It was the first new years that we had off in a few years.

        1. New years day we were on the beach in tee shirts. It was lovely. Of course it followed that after Christmas storm and then it never seemed to stop snowing

  32. Thanks! Our little boy will be a little more than 2.5 years in May.
    Oh I still think we get a hefty amount of snow, we will pay for all this nice weather.

    1. My 2nd and 3rd are 2.5 months apart it’s a nice age difference

      I am expecting my third grandchild at the end of March. A little girl. That’ll Make two girls and a boy.

  33. As I said a few days ago there will be wintry precipitation in December unlike Novemer.
    Hadi in cased you must my post above congrats to you and your wife.

    1. JJ I am going with the last 2weeks. Would you agree that would be the time frame. It’s hard to ignore over 100 inches for December last 4 winters.

  34. I said the other day no big snow through mid month given the current setup. I think the second half of the month for accumulating snow. I think we end up below average snowfall for December.
    Should be an easy win for the Pats tomorrow over the Colts without Manning.

  36. a winter change is on its way but will come in steps
    sunday through monday highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s
    monday night we start seeing clouds increase ahead of a front
    we will not see any really precipitation fall until wednesday but do not rule out a few showers modnay and tuesday. The first area of low pressure comes through wednesday pre dawn hours though wednesday temps dropping .at night precipitaion could mix with or change to all snow ,then another storm system passes to the south of us giveing extreme southeastern new england mainly the cape and islands some rain or snow showers. they could get some coatings(we should keep an eye on this). After all this the 540 line seems to stay to the south. but most of the storms also stay to the south. This will lead to good snow making weather for the ski areas.sounds alot like 2009 winter season all over again 🙁

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