The Week Ahead

195 Comments

2:35AM

This week will start out very mild ahead of a slow moving cold front which will arrive during Tuesday. After some morning low clouds and areas of fog today, some partial sun will occur. Clouds and showers will be dominant Tuesday as the temperature starts to coast down with the passage of the front. Slightly drier air will be here Wednesday between one wave of low pressure that brings some rain Tuesday night and another low pressure wave which will bring a threat of rain or snow later Thursday with colder air in place. The Thursday event is more uncertain, as this system may end up too far east to bring any significant precipitation to the Boston area. Later this week, expect mostly dry and colder weather as some of the colder air from Canada and the western USA finally makes its way to New England.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog into mid morning giving way to some partial sun. High around 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving, especially after  midnight. Low near  50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers until midday. High 55-60 then cooling back toward 50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH in the morning, shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. A period of rain. Low 40-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperature steady 40-45. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow PM. Low 32. High 42.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 41.

195 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. cold front will come through with showers tuesday and tuesday evening. up to one inch of rain. Wednesday we will have a break but will still see clouds maybe some peaks of sunshine.
    thursday is worth watching. but right now the area of low pressure will be to far south to give us anything besides for clouds and a shower for areas south of the pike.A shift in as track will totally change what happens. A tad bit further east there will be mostly sunny skies but really cold. If it comes a tad closer expect some light snow for areas away from the coast with some light rain for coastal areas.

  3. Model mayhem between nam/euro vs. GFS and Canadian this morning. 00z euro has decent storm vs.00z GFS which totally lost storm. nam at 84 hr is much robust then GFS as well. Let’s see if we get consistency.

  5. What time do the models start to come out our time? Also what time is when the models say 00UTC? Many Thanks.
    Nam 0Z:
    Nam 6Z:
    Nam 12Z:
    Nam 18Z:

    GFS 0Z:
    GFS 6Z:
    GFS 12Z:
    GFS 18Z:

    Euro 0Z:
    Euro 12Z:

  6. From Noaa:

    WED/THU…CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE
    DISPARITY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. 12Z ECMWF…12Z AND 00Z CANADIAN
    AND 00Z GFS DEPICT FLAT WAVE WELL OFFSHORE FOR THU WHILE 12Z AND 00Z
    UKMET…00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF POINT TOWARD MORE POTENT SYSTEM AND
    POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA FOR WED
    NIGHT PERHAPS INTO THU AM. WHEREAS 00Z OP GFS RUN LOST SYSTEM…THERE
    ARE ABOUT SIX ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A SFC LOW AROUND OR LESS
    THAN 1000 MB PASSING JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THU. THE 00Z ECMWF
    IS SIMILAR TO ECMWF RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
    ESPECIALLY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE POSITIVE
    NAO…WOULD EXPECT A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT NOT NECESSARILY TO THE
    EXTREME INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS OP RUN OR CANADIAN RUN. INCLINED TO
    HAVE MORE FAITH IN THE ECWMF WITH ITS PERFORMANCE HISTORY…
    ESPECIALLY GIVEN GEFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. HAVE THUS RETAINED CHANCE
    POPS THRU WED NIGHT FOR MOST OF AREA. PTYPE IS TRICKY AS COLDER AIR
    FILTERS IN. IF WE RECEIVE THE PRECIPITATION…BELIEVE IT WILL BE
    RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW NW TO SE WED NIGHT.

    A BAND OF SEVERAL INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS A PORTION OF
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILE
    CHILLS ENOUGH WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED
    TO PASS SOMEWHERE SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

  8. coastal,

    each run completion is around noon, 6pm, midnight, 6am each day. Pretty sure the 12z nam will start running around 10am or so then it goes to the GFS etc…..if you keep refreshing, you’ll see each time lapse added in. That’s basically it. Someone else might be able to be more exact but that’s generaly how I keep up with it.

    NAM completion will always be ahead of GFS.

  11. Can’t access it either. I remember though hearing from Joe’s tweet back on the last weekend of November he thought there would be some wintry precipitation between the 6-9 of December. I hope he is tweeting the same thing.

      1. Unless, of course, somehow you are looking at a different site
        and it has come out earlier for you. What I see is at the 18 hour point, which would indicate the wave for tomorrow evening.

        ????????????????????

  15. If what Joe Bastardi says were looking at level 2 Moderate Snow Event.
    According the NWS out of NYC the NAM was a western warmer solution on the last run.

    1. You had me scared for a moment. No Problem. I guess we just get too excited at the prospects of any snow whatsoever! Lol.

  17. Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code

    Hazardous Weather Outlook

    ——————————————————————————–

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    455 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

    CTZ002>004-MAZ011-020-RIZ003>007-061000-
    HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
    SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
    WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
    455 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

    …DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING…

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…WESTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
    INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

    DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

    THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOME
    INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
    AND THURSDAY MORNING.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

  24. From Joe Joyce:

    A third wave of low pressure along this stalled front off the coast is possible Wednesday night-Thursday morning. This has the potential to be the biggest of them all…or could stay out to sea. Simply going to have to give this a bit more time for more information. Still will lean towards the more pessimistic scenario until proven otherwise. Wednesday night colder air will still be pushing into New England. This “third” low will be tracking up from the Carolinas through the Mid-Atlantic and deepening off the coast, possibly tracking just south of the benchmark. Rain will change to snow overnight through the early morning hours Thursday before quickly pulling away. Cold Thursday with highs only in the Lwr-mid 40′s. If this solution occurs there could be several inches of snow in eastern MA by dawn Thursday morning. We will keep you up to date on this as we get more info

  26. As I said earlier one thing looks clear at the moment even it does snow were not looking at a blockbuster. Once the cold blast comes in for the weekend it warms up next week.

  27. Very potent and the NAM bring in colder air for the event as well, let’s see what happens with the rest of the run.

  31. Looks really nice at 72hrs!!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111205%2F12%2Fnam_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=069&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  33. Good position for the low staying below SNE if you want to see snow.
    Might have to get the snow index out of the closet where it has been since after the Pre Halloween Noreaster!

    1. Hadi,

      curious to know where you got the 8:1 ratio? Is that your guess, or did you
      see it someplace?

      Many thanks

  36. Water temps at the 2 near by bouys are 50 and 49 respectfully. Pretty high
    for this time of year.

    If we have much of an Easterly component to the wind field, it will be primarily
    rain along the coast. HOWEVER, it appears that looking at the 10Meter winds, a More Northerly flow will predominate indicating a SNOW event, even along the coast.

    Just my thoughts anyway.

  38. Good point Old Salty with the wind direction and the mild ocean temps. If that wind direction comes from the east the coast could see mixing keeping totals down.

  40. btw, just speculating here….each successive run of the NAM, has INCREASED the
    intensity of this system. I am wondering IF it might not be even strong still???

    Just a thought.

  41. Interesting you said that Old Salty because reading the NWS discussion from NYC from earlier this morning its saying the 0z Euro was showing a deepening low and more northeast track and shows more dynamic cooling and potentially more snow.
    I would like to see what the 12z Euro shows.

    1. From NWS a little while ago:

      A BAND OF SEVERAL INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS A PORTION OF
      SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILE
      CHILLS ENOUGH WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED
      TO PASS SOMEWHERE SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

  42. no question its a fast mover, big issue with temps based on water temps but it also seems that its far enough away from the coast that it should not draw too much of an easerly component

    1. On that particular map, the 540 line (500Mb-1000Mb thickness) will give
      an indication of how cold the airmass is. If the line is south of us, and it is,
      that is a reasonable indication that it could snow. Also, if you were to select
      the 850MB temperature in the drop down, you will see that our area is
      in the zone of 0 to -5 C, which is also an indicator that it could snow.
      Ideally, we would like to see 850MB temps at -3C or lower with the 500MB-1000MB thickness UNDER 540.

  45. Hadi & Coastal.

    As soon as NCEP loads them, I’ll post ’em up. It takes forever sometimes.

    Don’t wish for this to get too strong either (ie: wind). Coast is going to have trouble enough as it is to snow. Especially say Plymouth South. Maybe even furher north too.

    1. As long as wind has a more Northerly component than Easterly, I think
      we will be OK. Esactly which components is very difficult to say.

      I would like to see it something like 25 degrees or less.

  46. These New England winter storms are never easy to predict, this one included.
    the changes from the 06z NAM to the 12z NAM are quite noticeable, so I need to see more runs from that model before hopping on the snow train.
    The morning runs of the GFS may be out to lunch, will see what the 12z runs have to say.
    The 12z NAM’s solution would be best for snow.

    1. 12Z GFS is out to 48 hours so far. It also has the impressive 500MB. We’ll see
      how the rest of the run pans out.

  50. ok, here’s NAM temp profile for boston. theoretically just cold enough and enough qpf for 3-4 inches but 2M temps are above freezing. Wind field shows mostly northerly wind except right before the start where theres a whiff of northeasterly at I think 825 mb which means maybe a little sleet or pellets to to start. Accumulation would be held down becasue of surface temps.

    Worcester looks to plot maybe 3″ on the run. Surface and low levels cold enough.

    Here’s the temps for boston. I’ll post again with wind barbs.

    http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MA&stn=KBOS&model=nam&time=2011120512&field=tempa

  54. We had a very sneaky snowstorm way back on Dec. 5-6, 1981. IIRC Boston picked up around a foot. I suppose if the technology had been what it is today, the models would have picked it up a couple days earlier. Early December is known for surprise snows. I remember as a kid there seemed to always be a bit of snow overnight that wasn’t forecasted. Never enough for school to be closed, but sometimes enough to make travel more difficult.

    It will interesting if Thursday’s storm comes to full potential, but the NAO is still postive and no signs going negative through mid/late month, at least the last time I looked at it.

    Also, if I am not mistaken, the last time we had a -NAO, we had a visit from hurricane Irene.

      1. If I am reading it correctly, it went slightly negative for the October storm but much moreso for Irene in late August.

  55. The 12z UKMET is quite strong but too warm from what I’m seeing.
    The 12z EURO will be interesting
    The 12z GFS seems to be the outlier.
    The 12z GEM is out to lunch as usual.

  57. Two things look certain at this point.
    1. No major east coast storm
    2. Colder air filters in behind this storm system.

  59. So I checked the euro but can’t tell track bc of the time from 72 to 96!! Don’t have access to the 6 hr increments but I know they are posted on accuweather so I keep an eye.

    1. Hadi.

      Thank you! That looks pretty impressive.

      Where did you get the link? Is there a website? OR did Accuweather
      post the link?

      Thanks again.

  63. The Euro looks a little southeast of the benchmark. I would like to see it get to that sweet spot.
    Waiting on the 18z NAM but it looks like some wintry precipitation maybe in our future this week.

    1. This time of the year not too close, I would say a little outside might be better in keeping the cold air in place.

  64. Oh I’m getting excited, both 12z runs of the NAM and EURO are looking great for the track, question remains how much cold air will be available.

  65. I’ve been reading your updates and trying to follow but am not quite sure what you are saying. Is there a chance this could be more snow than anticipated? Enough to finally break out the snowblower or will it be little enough to shovel?

  66. This storm system will not be like the Pre Halloween Noreaster. I would say this if you are in the interior and especially up in elevation plan on the moment on shoveling some snow.
    THIS COULD CHANGE!

  67. It could very well pack a punch but in terms of impacts with snowfall amounts and widespread power outages this will not match that magnitude.
    Very Very prelimnary and this could change but I am thinking a 1 for the near and at coast since the amounts will stay under 4 inches and that wind direction is going to be the key since a change to an easterley direction will result in more of a mix.
    A 2 for the interior since there is a chance of 4 plus inches.

  68. tonights 00z run will be the one to watch–especially the euro. there’s no way I’ll make it to that late–I had a big weekend.

      1. Yes, temps would be a concern. This runs moves it closer.
        I don’t like the 1000-500MB thickness, although the 100-850Mb thickness looks OK. The 850 MB temps are marginal
        at first and then improve.

        Looks like a rain to snow scenario to me.

        Again, it is the 18Z run. We’ll need to see the 0Z runs
        later on.

        1. Yup plenty more runs to go, and as you said it’s an 18z run. We’ll see if the GFS comes back from lunch for it’s 18z run.

      2. Yikes…….we have a field trip scheduled for Thursday taking us from the south shore to the north shore. Frustration, it could snow any other day of the month.

    2. It’s jacked up for sure, qpf from euro for Boston was.72 and NAM is close to 2. Big difference, we had a storm like this last year where NAM just kept insisting on highQPF and it ended up being right.

      1. It happened for Halloween storm too Hadi. For the record, I’m not making that call. Just saying NAM was on that early.

      2. I believe it was storm we had around 11th 12th of January and as you said the NAM ended up being right.
        I am little concerned how much cold air is available with this storm system or could it make its own cold air
        like the Pre Halloween Noreaster did.

  73. I’m being a wise guy old salty. I have a bizarre sense of humor sometimes. HGH–human growth hormone–Sammy Sosa, Mark Mcgwire etc..

    2. my sense of humor must be slightly bizarre too because I’ve been laughing for a while – I was trying to figure out what HGH was also

  77. Some improvement but QPF is low but keep in mind euro only punched out .72 for Boston more south of the area.

  78. I’ve reviewed the latest… and here’s my opinion:

    NAM = garbage.
    ECMWF = 1/2 ok, 1/2 not ok
    GFS = 18z good, 12z better.

    Don’t expect much in the Boston area from the last wave. It would be a different story if it were about 12 hours later that the precip was coming by, because the low would be tracking closer, and it would be colder. Too early / too warm this time.

  79. Can’t copy the only portion but very telling that ther throwing out GFS and going with NAM and EURO

    HIGHLIGHTS…

    * COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
    * A POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON OVERNIGHT ON WED BRINGING SNOW
    * HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK

    CONFIDENCE…
    LOOKING AT THE 00Z/12Z MODEL SUITE…CONFIDENCE WAS QUITE LOW
    EARLIER IN THE DAY. AS THE 00Z ECMWF WAS FAR TO PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO
    THE GFS/NAM/GEFS. LUCKILY WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE 12Z
    ECMWF…CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
    IN COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
    SOUTHEAST U.S. IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS WHILE A POTENT
    SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
    HELP ENHANCE OUR PATTERN CHANGE AS WE CAN PROBABLY SAY GOOD BYE TO
    THE MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE DECEMBER AS MORE SEASONABLE
    TEMPERATURE APPROACH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
    POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM DURING THE MID WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    GETTING ON BOARD. SPECIFICS WILL BE BELOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON
    ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS LATEST MODEL
    GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH.

    WEDNESDAY…
    AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE GREAT
    LAKES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
    MAINE…EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE BEGINNING
    OF THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 50S
    ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. FROM THIS SURFACE LOW…THERE WILL BE A
    LINGERING FRONTAL SYSTEM…WHICH WILL KEEP SCATTER SHOWERS ACROSS
    THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OFF THE SOUTH
    COAST AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE TRACK TO
    SHIFT FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH.

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT – THURSDAY…
    MAIN BULK OF THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL
    SOME DISCREPANCY WITHIN THE MODELS. 12.05 ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM
    ITS PREV RUN BUT IS ON THE SAME TRACK AS THE 12.05 NAM. THE 12.05
    GFS IS MORE FARTHER OUT TO SEAS WITH THE COASTAL LOW…BUT SINCE
    THAT IS A BIAS WITH THE GFS DECIDED TO IGNORE IT FOR NOW. COMPARE
    ALL THE MODELS AND THEIR PREV RUNS DECIDED TO TREND THE FORECAST
    TOWARDS THE 12.05 ECMWF/NAM AS THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
    SYSTEM AND THE NAM AS A BETTER THERMAL PROFILE FOR FORECASTERS
    THINKING.

    MAIN DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
    PRODUCER AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
    AREA…CREATING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
    WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND MORE
    NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL MANY
    TRACKS THAT THIS STORM CAN TAKE BUT LEANING TOWARDS NAM/ECMWF WHICH
    PUTS THE LOW RIGHT OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
    COMING TOGETHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SEE MEASURABLE
    SNOW…DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
    COLD AIR USHERING IN BEHIND. CONFIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN ON ANY TYPE OF
    MESOSCALE FEATURES…BANDING ETC…BUT WITH THE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
    Q-FORCING…CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH AND
    ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED. RIGHT NOW WITH THE CURRENT
    TRACK…PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL CT AND CENTRAL MASS WILL SEE THE
    HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES…WHILE THE I-95 CORRIDOR MAY SEE ONLY 1-2
    INCHES. AGAIN THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
    STORM…FOR NOW CAN ONLY SAY SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT SNOW ACCUMS
    WILL BE UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. PLEASE STAY TUNE FOR FORECAST UPDATES
    INVOLVING THIS COASTAL STORM.

    THURSDAY NIGHT – FRIDAY NIGHT…
    MAIN BULK OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT ACROSS THE
    ATLANTIC…WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO USHER IN AT THE END
    OF THE WORK WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BALMY UPPER 30S/LOW 40S WHILE
    LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
    EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.

    EXTENDED: SATURDAY – MONDAY…
    LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST…AS MODELS ARE
    HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
    ON FRIDAY AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
    WITH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES…HIGH PROB IT WOULD BE SNOW…BUT LOW
    CONFIDENCE IF THIS WILL EVEN OCCUR OR NOT. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
    TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE OTHER DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
    PRECIP TO FORM. KEPT POP CHANCE QUIET LOW FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

    HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN USHER IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
    DISTURBANCE KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH
    SEASONABLE TEMPS.

    THANK YOU TO OKX/GYX/HPC AND ALY FOR THE COLLABORATION TODAY.

  81. I don’t believe the Boston to Providence corridor doesn’t get much if any snow, this is a rain event and then it warms up early next week mid 50’s, have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. Tell us how you REALLY feel about snow, Charlie 😉

      I agree. I imagine Boston especially will be left out of the snow this time around.

      Still holding out hope for a white Christmas! Last year’s storm came a day too late.

      1. I love snow but I do believe the coastal plain will be left out, cold air comes in to late, I would love a 3 foot blizzard!! 🙂 unfortunately that is no where in sight

      2. The south shore had a white christmas last year. I do believe as well as a bunch more here that we get a plowable event here this mounth. I strongly believe this will happen the last two weeks of the mounth. Again sounding like a broken record, but the last four Decembers in a row received over 100 inches. So I would say depending on when that snow comes will depend on the white christmas. Last year here in Pembroke we had between 6-8 inches the Monday of christmas week.

  83. If these trends continue would not be surprised to see winter weather advisories issued. I think we fall short of warning criteria.

  84. If the euro verifies then most of us see snow? So not sure why you are dismissing this right away? All depends on the track and the dynamic cooling that could take effect et… Clearly that is if you think nam is on to something!!

    1. 48 Sunday and 55 for monday. I think Hadi the cold front is in and out. I think Saturday is the coldest than starts to rebound.

      2. Channel 7 has 48 Sunday and 55 Monday
        Channel 4 has 44 and 48
        Channel 5 has 38 Saturday but nothing on Sunday yet,

  86. Way too early for details or predicting who gets what. Sure you can go with typical NE History and say Rain South, Snow North. But it still remains to be seen.

    Also, I would like to see how the nam performs basrd on TK’s Comment.

    Friday Night snow? Good time to get the tree!

    1. That snow map will change. My concern is the lack of cold air and can this storm make its own cold air. This storm system to me is not as strong as the Pre Halloween Noreaster and may not be able to make its own cold air.

  90. Hadi I am thinking we just will not have it cold enough at the right time. Some storms just don’t work out. Trust me my friend you will be tracking storms this year that will pan out.

  91. After having read more of your late afternoon comments and catching a few of the 6pm TV forecasts, I am relieved at what looks like less snow Thursday with road trips for myself, and my wife and daughter……

    About 11 years ago, I was involved in an accident up near North Conway, NH. It happened during the first snow of the season. My wife was driving under the speed limit and still our jeep slid across the road and into oncoming traffic. Thankfully, we spun fully around, so the back half of the jeep took the impact. So, I’m still affected driving in the snow and when I think I might have to go a fair distance in it, it is a big stresser for me.

    1. Tom i am very happy the accident was worse but how terrifying. when younger I drove everywhere in major storms. Now I wouldn’t consider it. As much as I love snow I am can never really enjoy it until I know everyone is home safely

        1. I knew what you meant 🙂 ………………….Yes, same here, when I was younger, I went out after the heavy snow had ended and before they had plowed because I wanted to see how much snow everyone had gotten and to see what it looked like.

  95. It will be interesting what the 0z runs have to say.
    I won’t be up at 2AM when the new Euro run comes in but I’ll read about it here on the blog when I wake up.

  97. I’m going with the jackpot area starting from Quincy, south to Plymouth and west to Providence. The highest amounts will be 6 to 7 inches. Less directly on the coast due to lower snow ratio and NW with less qpf. I would love to use those quirky little phrases such as “there maybe some surprises” or reference a computer model for my prediction but I can’t, cause I simply made it up with no facts to support my prediction. Similar to every met out there using these garbage runs. Good model runs are exactly like a good house foundation in relation to ones forecast, if you have a bad foundation, the house comes crashing down.

    Vote “Coastal 2012” and I promise a White Christmas every year.

      1. Perfect! Thanks Vicki! All I need is a check for $5 payable to Me and a good legal team so I don’t get Cain’d!

        2. All you have to do is smile. The others will bury themselves without any help and you’ll be in. The check is in the mail

  99. Lets see what kind of tune it sings as we our getting closer to the approach of this storm system.

  104. NAM not backing off.

    Still brings the qpf…and zips along too. If it verifies, they’ll be some front-end rain, then hard, quick hit of heavy snow for interior then bye, bye.

  106. As I said earlier would not be surprised if winter weather advisories go up for the interior. I think we fall short of warning criteria.

  107. I think maybe an inch for Boston and the coast due to the mixing. I think if anyone sees 4 plus inches it would be the interior particulary the elevated areas which is why I gave the interior a 2 and areas at and near the coast a 1. The interior may have to be downgraded to a 1 if it looks like the totals will come in under 4 inches.

  108. Here is the NAM at the height of the storm

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111206%2F00%2Fnam_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=063&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F06%2F2011+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=152&scrolly=35&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  110. Not what we were looking for on the coast!!unless dynamic cooling can overcome boundary layer temps.

    Lots of QPF but probably overdone by .50 inches.

  111. mostly rain inside of 95 on this run. this shows typical NW of 495 where a WSW would probably be posted in elevated counties especially.

    wonder if TK still pooh, pooh’s the NAM.

    I’ll bite on it by tomorrow 00z if still there.

    I wonder what the nutty GFS will deliver tonight.

    1. Yes I do. It’s overdone on precip, too close with the low track, but the temps look fairly decent. I don’t think much snow will happen NW because of lack of precip.

  112. this model has the storm tracking just to the south of new england. giving a healthy storm for us.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111206%2F00%2Fnam_namer_063_precip_p03.gif&fcast=063&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p03&cycle=12%2F06%2F2011+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes.

  114. to much is uncertain with this storm to say that a winter storm watch or a winter weather advisory is going to be needed. Yes as it looks right now we might get some snow. but this storm depends on the front and the amount of cold air.
    right now the area that will see the highest snow accumulation will be inside 495 but away from the coast down through interior southeast mass. I do not think we will see more than 4 inches from this storm .

    1. Especially up in the elevated areas of the interior will have the most snow.
      Postive NAO not going to have a big east coast snowstorm.

  115. goodnight all–still have some cobwebs to knockout from too much pub crawling around north conway over the weekend. I’m getting too old for that silliness!

  116. Oh I think someone seems more then 4 inches if the NAM is correct. But that is key! I know TK does not like the NAM for this so we will wait until tomorrow and see where we are at. Goodnight all!

  117. Bottom line (or lines): Fast-mover, open wave, marginal temps, most of the precip. is rain, ending as it’s finally cold enough for snow in Boston area, VERY warm ground, precip probably over by or shortly after dawn, sun appears by mid morning. Almost a non-event here.

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