The Week Ahead (December 19-25)

400 Comments

EDITTED 10AM Tuesday … full update this evening!

Tuesday… High pressure passes north of New England resulting in a dry and chilly day.

Wednesday… Low pressure cuts west of New England. Its warm front may bring brief very light frozen precipitation in the morning but the probability is not very high. We enter the warm sector in the afternoon with rain showers ahead of a cold front.

Thursday… With a cold front from the system just gone-by moving just south of the region it will dry out but a secondary front may result in a few isolated rain showers.

Friday… Wave of low pressure passing just south of the region in the morning, with marginally cold enough air in place for mixed precipitation ending as snow, then a possible snow shower later as a reinforcing cold front moves through.

Saturday / Christmas Eve… Cold high pressure north of the region, a few ocean-effect snow showers possible in an otherwise dry day, but low pressure forms south and approaches with an area of snow moving in from the south at night.

Sunday / Christmas Day…It’s still way out, but there is the potential for stormy weather, with at least mixed precipitation and possibly snow (especially inland). Many days remain to fine-tune this possibility.

Detailed forecast…

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30 early then warming back into the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. A slight chance of very light snow/mix during the morning hours. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE around 10 MPH in the morning, SW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with early mix/snow then partly cloudy with late snow showers. Low 33. High 42.

SATURDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers during the day. Steadier snow/mix possible at night.  Low 23. High 36.

SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 28. High 37.

400 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (December 19-25)”

  4. Yes, and with the model spread all over the place for late week, PLEASE don’t read too much detail in anything above there beyond Thursday. I’ll fine-tune as we go. 🙂

  5. Even though I am almost certain we get snow before the end of the month, not to be selfish but I just hope it does not panout for xmas eve and xmas day. If I had to go to work, It is fair to say christmas would be ruined. I sure hope that is not the case.

    1. i remember the last time we had a storm on christmas eve/ christmas day. I could not go out to my grandparents until the 27. I was not a happy little camper with no power.

      1. It would cause problems for everybody. Even people who want snow know that it would be very,very bad timing.

  6. John I think you are not selfish. My guess is Christmas would be spoiled for many. That’s why is would like to see no snow until after jan 1. Families should be together.

    2. Agree. My thinking is for the first snow it would be the worst time. People heading home for the holidays, xmas eve party, church services I can go on and on. You need to look at the whole picture. If It pans out many plans could be spoiled for many people. Let it come on the 26th again.

  8. Mt Washington already showing signs of tomorrow’s moderation, having crept up from this morning’s -7F to +5F at 7pm, warmest of the day.

  11. Several models seem to have a (“mild”) low off the coast during 24th-25th, but difficult, at least for me, to reach a meaningful conclusion. Maybe it’s too early to call.

  13. Temps looks very close, storm is there. Also look at the High up north very key to forecast to see if that stays north vs heading east.

  17. You’ll have to forgive me. I’m going to root for the snow.

    In reality, most snow events will not prevent families from getting together. Only the very rare blockbuster storms timed exactly right (or wrong) would cause those kinds of problems.

    1. But for people like me who need to work the snowstorm It would take us away from are family on a very special day, money is not everything. I would rake in the dough bigtime if this fell on xmas day or eve into day, bigtime. On christmas I will take family over money, and not all but some guys would go the same way.

      1. I most certainly do, but the scope of the problems would depend on the magnitude of the event. A couple inches of powder is going to have far less impact than 6-10 inches of mashed potatoes with high winds.

    3. TK I’m not sure I agree. John would have to work. My oldest is 6 months pregnant so would not travel in snow. Others coming from various locations. Would mean we would not all be together. That’s just two that i know of on this small blog. I think many would be without family. Snow can happen any time family and holidays not so much.

      2. Right on. I have people coming over here from the city, doubt they would come. So that would be four familys out, me working till at least Monday and my wife and son here alone. So yes christmas snow is not good. And everybody here knows me and Vicki are right. most people do not head out in snowstorms period.

        1. Wasn’t aware it was a matter of someone being right or wrong. Bottom line is, weather will do what weather will do.

          1. It’s not. If I went on to much I am sorry. But it would cause problems. And speaking about my own life we only have one child. I only get one shot at all the things in his life, I don’t want to miss any happy times with him. So I am being selfish saying I don’t want snow on christmas but I do not want to be away from my family.

    4. I’m rooting for snow as well. Not a huge, shut down the city snow, but a few, soft inches to really make it feel like Christmas.

      Im relatively new to the Boston area and spent a fair amount of my life in rapid city, SD. I don’t know if its the difference in terrain, population, or what, but folks in SD never let a few inches bother them. In fact, I remember driving on unplowed roads for days and it barely being an issue. It was always the rain storms that terrified me when driving.

      1. That is the kind of thing I was hoping for. My favorite December pattern is a northern stream dominated cold pattern with brief warmups with arctic fronts bringing snow showers, and clipper lows bringing light snowfalls.

  18. If its going to snow later in the week I would like it Friday night into early Saturday so the snow would be clear so people could go to their holiday parties or I would like to see it towards midnight on Christmas night because by then most people are home.

    1. Well midnight xmas night would be the 26th. that would work because everybody would have enjoyed there xmas. JJ you know I’m right as much as you want the snow. And I’m not thinking of myself here. It would be bad for tons of people. Vicki would not see her daughter on xmas.

      1. Or my granddaughter John and my kids wouldn’t all be together which is important to us But even more families who do not see each other more than a few times a year fly. Wishing however doesn’t make it happen or not happen. No one can control the weather. Whatever happens does so for a reason. My wish is for all to have a safe holiday full of family and love.

  20. In my life there has only been two times its snowed on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. The first was 95 on Christmas Eve when we were eating dinner and turned on the lights and it was snowing. It took some of my relatives a while to get home that night. The other was on Christmas Day in 02 when we moved dinner up a few hours so we could get it in. We finished just before the snow started to fall.

  21. The 18z GFS was the first model to pick up on a missed initialized shortwave over the Pacific, which is why it put the wave in for Dec 24/25 I believe. It may or may not have the right timing, but it’ll be interesting to see if the 00z picks it up. The 00z NAM sees it and it reflects at hour 84 as a strong shortwave around Colorado at 12z on December 22.

  22. Since 1936 Boston (Logan) has had a white Christmas probably no more than a dozen times. I used to have the exact number, but I may have thrown it away or it is just hiding among a ton of papers. Considering we are located in the “northern” tier of states not all that far from Canada, somewhat surprising we don’t get white Christmases almost every year…our still relatively warm ocean waters I suspect.

  24. I am hoping that this is right
    It will be just before and it would not cause that much problems unless you travel to the southeast states. but this will mean a light event the day before the holiday

  26. Too bad that was a troll posting that false rumor, but it will be interesting if Barry really does has some potential for a white Christmas.

  27. 00Z GFS paints this picture:

    Rain showers Wednesday afternoon.

    Light mix/snow Friday morning – minor accumulation at best.

    Stronger trend toward substantial snow event for parts of MA 24th night, 25th day.

    … Again, this is just what the model says, not my offical forecast.

  29. NWS 413 AM EST…
    POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT SYSTEM XMAS EVE/XMAS DAY. THERMAL PROFILES FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW INLAND AND A WINTRY MIX ELSEWHERE FOR BOTH EVENTS. OBVIOUSLY THIS CAN CHANGE BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER THE PAST FEW RUNS.

  30. Pete on channal 7 just said we had a chance still. for some white being on the ground. for christmas eve and christmas day on his blog.

  31. Oddly the euro and GFS seem to agree overall for next weekend. John I do hope that should it happen it does not put a strain on you. I for one have 1 son and he and I would love snow on Xmas.

  32. Well, despite what model runs are showing and what analysis is saying, I’m going to be stubborn (I’m good at that 🙂 🙂 ) and be quite reserved in what happens towards the end of the week. A few reasons….

    On Thursday, the temps are going to be mild, as the airmass will be of pacific origin and sometimes getting the boundary layer to cool off enough from this can be harder than it first appears.

    The high setting up to our north seems to be in retreat a bit as these systems pass to our south. I think that could set up a northeast or east northeast wind off the still mid 40F ocean.

    So, I’m really yet unsold on frozen precip potential. Unsettled, chilly…yes…..wintry precip south of Merrimack Valley, I’ll need more proof. ( very stubborn 🙂 )

    Have a good day all.

  33. Today sunny Highs in the low40s
    tonight clear lows in the upper20s
    tuesday sunny and cooler highs in the upper30s
    tuesday night increasing clouds lows in the mid20s
    wednesday mostly cloudy chance of showers might start out as a mix if it starts early enough highs in the low to mid 40s
    wednesday night cloudy with evening showers cloudy lows in the low 40s
    thursday sunny highs in the mid 40s
    thursday night cloudy lows in the low30s
    friday partly sunny highs in the upper 30s and low 40s slight chance of a shower temperatures dropping into the 30s by late afternoon
    friday night partly cloudy lows in the low 30s
    christmas eve partly sunny highs in the low to mid30s
    christmas eve night Santa will be using rudolf as there will be mostly cloudy skies with a chance of snow
    christmas day cloudy as a storm goes to our south and gives southeast mass ,cape and the islands a possible light snow event. highs will be in the 30s with lows being in the 20s this is what it looks like for now

  34. Could it be possible that this is the first storm system that does not get an UGH rating since the Pre Halloween Noreaster???
    I gave a 6 on the UGH meter for not having a White Christmas yesterday. Today I am stepping it down to a 5.

  35. Tom take a look at the euro from last night, big H anchored over eastern Canada. You are to be stubborn as there is a lot to be worked our.

  37. From a practical meteorological standpoint, at 5 and 6 days out I’m not committed to anything yet.

  38. Patriots won again, patriots by far r my favorite new England sports team by far, I wish it was football season every season,

    1. Come from a football family and became a fan in 1985 when i was 15, redsox have always been #2 closely followed by the celtics and then bruins. Go Patriots

  40. TK so right, too soon to be on board with anything. But at least something to track all week!!

    Charlie still at 10? Not any lower:) we have a chance at least.

    1. Yeah it’s a chance I guess, but the set up just doesn’t look right to me for snow, it’s not that I don’t want it, I just think chances r low

  41. I have to say if you trust the euro then it looks like a really nice set up.
    Degex which is not great shows a fantasy storm:)

  45. Hadi, I was looking at the same thing and agree. However, the models seem to have had a few too many hot rum toddies when it comes to consistency. More changes to come I am sure.

    P.S. What is the difference between GCT and OAT? (For other bloggers, these are not weather acronyms.)

  46. Latest Bouy temperature:

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 9 2011, 4:50 pm EST
    Fri, 09 Dec 2011 16:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 49.8 °F (9.9 °C)
    Dewpoint: 44.1 °F (6.7 °C)
    Wind: South at 15.7 MPH (13.61 KT)
    Wind Chill: 44 F (7 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1024.2 mb
    Water Temperature: 48.4 °F (9.1 °C)

    We’re getting there, although still above average. I’d wager we should be at somewhere around 43 or 44 at this point.

    1. Old Salty – some years ago I used to hear a Boston Marine operator on one of our scanners. We have a VHF/UHF scanning receiver. Is there still a Boston Marine operator?

  47. From this mornings NWS text discussion:

    THEN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME EJECTS ANOTHER ONE OR
    TWO SYSTEMS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THU NGT/FRI AND AGAIN XMAS EVE/XMAS DAY. CONFLUENT FLOW APPEARS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC YIELDING A STORM TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ITS DELIVERY OF COLD AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP AND ITS IMPACT ON STORM TRACK…WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY. THUS A WHITE XMAS IS STILL IN PLAY!

    I like that LAST LINE!!! Still a long way off, but there is some hope here.

    1. From the NWS Upton NY:

      FINALLY…THE LAST STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE AREA
      CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TO A STRONGER LOW IN
      COMPARISON TO THE GFS WITH A 989 MB LOW PASSING NEAR CAPE COD NEXT
      SUNDAY. THE GFS IS ABOUT 20 MB WEAKER. A DECENT HIGH TO THE NORTH
      FOR THIS GO AROUND MAY POSE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
      THREAT. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH…THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL CHANGES IN
      THE FORECAST OUT THIS FAR. IT IS DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

    1. Hadi,
      Yes indeed. I did’t like the changes introduced by the 06Z GFS, but then again, it is the 06Z GFS. 12Z run will be most interesting to watch today as will ALL subsequent runs.

      What was your low today? I got up late (7:30AM) at it was 18.

    1. Yes it did mention that, although it didn’t mention the 06Z GFS which was
      warmer. We shall see. Something to watch at least. Better than it has been!

    2. No ice down here in wrentham either, a thin layer in a small part where the water is completely still but 90% still water

  52. Old Salty – Thank you! The link you gave me was for NYC Maritime Resources, so I figured out why not try looking up Mass. And I got Boston Maritime Resources which led me to the Massachusetts Harbormaster Assoc. Not only did I find the repeater that I wanted but there is a lot of neat stuff on that site, weather-related, too. You and some others on this blog may already be familiar with it. I don’t know if our scanners will be able to hear it – but it’s nice to know. I heard from one of my cousins yesterday who has a boat and may come up to MA this coming summer. Thanks again!

        1. Thanks – yes, I do. I never saw that website but I have Worcester (out of service the past few days) and Boston programmed in our radio – and depending on conditions, the Cape would come in on its own, w/o me programming it.

  55. Longshot the big difference is group size, pacing and riggors of the trip. OAT requires more physical activity and the groups are 16-24 vs 32-38. OAT trips are also more “off the beaten path” I think overall they are better trip if you are comforatble walking 3-5 miles per day.

    1. That is not during the progged storm system. If you look at the loop,
      it has the 540 line over or a bit North of us during the height of the event
      and then it moves South.

      Great graphics on this. I “wonder” how long it takes to get updated?

      Do you have any idea?

      Thanks

      1. Not sure I know the EURO runs more then twice a day that we see, but not sure whether its the same on wunderground.

  60. Darn it the link only take you to weatherunderground, just look under radar and you will see model and you will see all of them there.

  62. Don’t like the position of the HIGH on the GFS 12Z run at 132 hours.
    Waiting for a few more panels. Website is SLooooooooooow!!!

    1. This doesn’t look very promising. MORE OF THE SAME!

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F19%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=138&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      I know there is time, but this is not looking good. Previous runs were
      such a tease, as per usual in this regime.

  65. I will keep a close eye on the NAM and how is handles the energy coming in vs what the GFS is showing, NAM and EURO are much higher resolution.

  66. I was looking at the Climatological Data for Boston as always and noticed that Logan received officially a trace of snow yesterday (Sunday). I guess we won’t have a “snowless” December after all regardless like back in 1999 which was the only one recorded ever. Over the next few days I have no doubt the usual flip-flopping of models. We still have +NAO and the SE ridge against any kind of snow event, but the pre-Halloween storm we had just those elements. I guess we will see if we have a repeat performance come Christmas.

    I still maintain that SE ridge will always be lurking around to some extent until spring but there will be snow “threats” at times this upcoming winter…even mild winters have them.

      1. This looks good. btw, if you type a J on the keyboard, it will go back one frame and if you type L, it will advance one frame.

        Again, THANKS to Hadi for finding this excellent presentation
        of the EURO AND it was available right on time shorly after 2PM!!!!

  69. Old Salty & Hadi…did you see any snow on the ground in your Boston locals yesterday morning? If Logan records snow and there is nothing in my backyard, I am always suspiciously puzzled. I for one do not like airports as wx stations. I believe prior to 1936 weather obs. were recorded near Boston Common or the Public Garden.

    1. I didn’t see any on the ground, but I can tell you that I was up until the wee hours Sunday AM and I witnessed it SNOWING at about 1:20 AM. Didn’t last long believe me and there was no accumulation. However, looking at the RADARs, Logan had echos for a longer period of time, so I would absolutely
      say that Logan receive a trace of snow. (It was below freezing at the time)

      1. Thanks OS…I guess Logan was on the extreme western flank of that Cape ocean effect snow. If we had a more NE-E wind direction it could have been interesting for eastern MA I suspect.

  71. Thanks Hadi for the link, makes the EURO a lot more useful!
    Looks like we have something to track with a bit of potential.

    1. Right!! We have a watcher. And that means just that. It is still 5-6 days out
      and as we all know, anything can happen. Subsequent model runs are HIGHLY likely to change. How? we don’t know. That is why we watch.

  73. Latest from the NWS. Aren’t they ONE MODEL RUN BEHIND THE TIMES????

    FRI/SAT/XMAS… UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY AS SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE AND PTYPE COULD BE WINTRY AS NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND PARTIALLY ERODES SOUTHEAST/SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME RANGE/ WITH FIRST WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THU NGT/FRI AND THEN ANOTHER AND POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT SYSTEM XMAS EVE/XMAS DAY. THERMAL PROFILES FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW INLAND AND AWINTRY MIX ELSEWHERE FOR BOTH EVENTS. OBVIOUSLY THIS CAN CHANGE BUT
    THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER THE PAST FEW RUNS

    1. From the NWS office, Gray, ME:

      AS FAR AS A WHITE CHRISTMAS THERE STILL MAY BE SOME HOPE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY XMAS DAY BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW XMAS EVE AND XMAS DAY. IT IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT BUT A CLOSE EYE WILL BE KEPT ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

  74. 44F at Logan at 3 pm……it sure feels cooler than that……I’d add something to late week, but to be honest, it would be nothing more than a guess. So, I guess just wait for further runs and hopefully more clarity.

      1. I was being serious. 🙂

        As I was this morning, I remain skeptical of a winter event the rest of the week. If its 50F Thursday, I think it will struggle to cool off enough. The high going to our north, I dont think is a true polar high and I’m not even sure how much precip is going to occur in the region. Starting Friday, maybe 2 or 3 dark, drismal days with temps in the 36F to 44F zone, northern MA to South shore, and a period of rain in there somewhere maybe ?

        1. So you don’t read anything into the euro? You very well might be right when all said and done but how can you not put any stock into it?

        3. BTW, we “may” have 2 of them. Check out the NAM at
          84 hours. 850MB temps may be OK, but the 1000-500MB thickness not good. Still days out. Could change.

          So we could have snow/mix on Friday and again
          Saturday night/Sunday.

          We’ve been waiting a long time. Perhaps, just perhaps it WILL happen.

  76. Also I think EURO is in its deadly zone, ie gets it right at this time frame. Let’s see what the next couple of days offer!

    1. Interesting, EH?

      As I said above, we “could” have 2 Winter type events, a mix if not snow on Friday?????? Just maybe?? Now we Really have something(s) to watch.

      1. Right now I am waiting for the 18Z DGEX run. I was just comparing yesterday’s 18Z with this morning’s 06Z. Very very consistent! Interesting. That is why I so much want a look at today’s 18Z run.

  80. NWS out of Upton NY points out an important factor in these areas of low pressure that the NAO is suppose to be positive and lot of questions with track and timing with the second wave. There thinking if things come together for the second wave rain at the coast Snow North and West.

  82. I just noticed Weather Wizard’s post over at WBZ…trolls are back as well.

    I do agree with him in that temps are trending cooler with time along with the NAO, but I am still not convinced we will see a true pattern change until January at the earliest. If we see full fledged snowfall like this past Halloween, it is probably going to take the exact same dynamics which might be one those “once in a lifetime” situations as it is. Will lightning strike twice?? I like it that lately WW’s posts have been much more cautious and keeping note of the still +NAO and SE ridge.

  83. NWS, Taunton, MA at 4:17PM:

    CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY… QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TIMING. IN FACT…THE UKMET/GGEM HAVE IT DRY OVER THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER…BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM. GUT FEELING IS THAT PROBABLY
    WILL SEE SOMETHING SINCE THE ECMWF HAS HAD THIS FOR A COUPLE RUNS IN A ROW NOW…BUT CERTAINLY NOT SET IN STONE. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE…TOO EARLY TO CALL SO BOTH RAIN AND/OR SNOW ARE POSSIBILITIES.

    1. Actually, the Thurs. night/Fri system might end up looking better for snow…if nothing else, it passes “south” of the benchmark keeping whatever cold we have over us. 🙂

        1. I know it is the DGEX and it is an extension of the NAM out beyond 84 hours, but it is still a stinker in that it shows a variation from the consistency it had shown for the previous couple of runs.

          We’ll see what the suite of 0Z model runs have to say.

          One thing for sure, I don’t like the trend.

          Right now, I suspect that future runs will trend farther north and West and much warmer.

          HOPE I am WRONG!!!

  85. what kind of storm is that on the GFS! I mean, beggers can’t be choosers but would something that far o.t.s. throw back that kind of precip. TK?

    my prediction is that these models are going to drive us nuts all week!

    1. Yes it would and it will nudge north anyway on future runs.

      We’re looking at mostly snow for the Friday event (though not much).

      The Christmas event is too far out to call but I’d be willing to make a small wager that someone will be measuring snow in MA.

  86. ooops, forgot to post the whacky map. (you’ve all seen by now already I’m sure)

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111219%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_135_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=135&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F19%2F2011+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. 5-6 days out, not really a great time to make a call, but obviously climatology and the weather pattern would favor northern MA, central MA, and the Berkshires, for the greatest chance of accumulating snow from such an event. Warmer air can still get involved in areas further S & E depending on a storm track, etc. … I’m not making any definitive call for at least a few days.

  88. The first system looks MINOR the second one I would favor the interior for accumulation and more rain scenario for the coast.

  89. 5:30 wbz news — Todd said possibility of snow on Xmas but wouldn’t committ to it — too early to call.

  90. Atleast the GFS still has the storm, with not much of a shift. To max out the snow amounts, we need the storm to rapidly deepen so the cold air can get brought in, possibly raising snow ratios. Ah I’m getting to detailed. Let’s see where we are after the 12z suite tomorrow afternoon.

  91. There’s also a storm just after the possible Xmas event on the GFS that looks loaded with moisture and plenty of cold air.
    Could December go out with a bang?

  92. key statement from HPC

    WITH SOLNS OFFERING ENOUGH DIFFS IN
    PHASING BETWEEN STREAMS TO SUGGEST IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE
    SHORT RANGE TIME FRAME LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND BEFORE A REASONABLE
    DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED IN THE DEPICTION OF IMPORTANT
    DETAILS. AT THE MOMENT LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ROUGHLY CLUSTER A
    SFC LOW OFF THE NERN COAST BY SUN THE 25TH… DUE TO MAINTAINING
    BETTER DEFINITION OF THE MID LVL SHRTWV THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
    STILL THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAK WAVE TO THE E OF
    THE ECMWF/GFS SOLNS IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TREND FROM ITS
    12Z/18 RUN.

  93. For what it’s worth (and it’s not worth much) Pete B. is leaning towards a small (under 6 inch) storm with rain along the coast Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in his most recent blog update.

  94. He is the one who said 0% chance of snow on Xmas:) who knows what to think right now, most of the models are all over the place right now. Like TK said too soon to know anything yet and Pete saying rain vs. snow at this point with how much inconsistency is there is not the best thing for him to do.

  96. At 7 pm, Montreal 41F……Buffalo 44F…I wonder if Logan and other stations are 40 to 44F at the midnight hour and record their high temps for Tuesday around then.

  97. Waiting to see what the 0z runs have to say but to me a key thing is the NAO is suppose to remain positive according to the NWS from NYC so that tells me were not looking at a blockbuster storm.

  98. It is early but at this early stage I would say from Boston to Providence see mainly rain while out into far western suburbs ( the farms or west of 495) could get snow, have a great day everyone

  111. Battle between the cold and storm and on the NAMthe cold looks like it gets here in time. Also look at the H over Canada.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111220%2F00%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=081&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F20%2F2011+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=587&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. i’d love to know where the energy is coming from for christmas storm potential. I’ve been too lazy to research further. figure you guys will do the heavy lifting

      1. Made mention of it yesterday. The shortwave for that was missed by the models for several days while it was over the Pacific, and when they suddenly found it yesterday the storm suddenly appeared on the runs.

  118. I love how NWS says 2 inch when we are 4 days away and a lot can change either way. I admire TK for not putting numbers early just to flip flop, on the other hand I love putting numbers up bc they end wrong most of the time:) and no cares if I am wrong.

    Funny thing is my wife said to me yesterday you can’t run around saying snow bc my son understands now and he would be dissapiunted if I get him worked up too much and then no snow!! Anyway good night and let’s see what tomorrow holds.

    1. Hadi, that’s too cute about your son! 🙂 My son loved snow when he was little and still does. Last winter he was out in the elements filming the Chicago Blizzard for local news.

  119. The highs were in the 40s today, but to me it really felt just as cold as Sunday. I still bundled up when I was outside.

  120. Kevin Lemanowicz is already downplaying the Christmas storm and going for mostly if not all rain for most of SNE due to the storm being a coastal hugger.

    I suspect that the storm will be downplayed and upgraded back and forth all this week up until Christmas…you guys know the drill. 🙂

    1. It’s very discouraging how more and more of these TV guys act as if they know the storm track down to the details of the rain/snow line 6 days in advance. It’s disgusting, to be honest.

      1. I know tk, I’ve heard a weather guy say he doubts a white Christmas happen to Pete Bouchard say 1-3 to 2-4 and then said don’t hold me to it, alot can change. Then why say it ur on tv, it’s not like we’re on a blog blabbering about it,

    1. It gets old watching them change day to day: “Now it’s gonna do this. Oh, now this instead. Oh back to the original thoughts. Oops, now it’s gonna snow, now rain, now miss!” … It’s really almost that bad. They don’t all do it, but too many of them do.

      1. Nicely put. I like the way you handle it. You can’t know
        6 days out and you say so.

        Would be nice to get a Christmas Snow event.

        Time will tell.

  123. This isn’t weather but the Patriots r #1 seed since Pittsburgh lost, I’m so happy, I’ll b there sat 1pm against Miami, Go Patriots!!

  124. Like I’ve said I’ve been disappointed so many times, I will somewhat downplay it to just a chance of snow around Christmas, and it doesn’t look like a sizable storm, I think it’s confident to say we’re looking at something between nothing/coating to a couple/few inches. I also am concerned about a rain/snow line that slices through Massachusetts and RI

  125. We start gaining 1 min of sunlight starting this Thu, unbelievable how fast it’s going by. In 4 weeks we will have gained an hr of daylight!!!

  126. 27F in Burlington, VT this morning with a northerly breeze. Temps likely in check the rest of the day or slowly falling.

    I think the summarization of the latest 0z runs is that they are a bit warmer today than yesterday.

  127. I wonder if, on a line from Boston to Providence, points south and east, someone hits 60F late tomorrow, along with dewpoints nearing 50F. Not the strongest storm tracking north and west of the region tomorrow, but there is some very mild air in the southeast and lower Mississippi Valley region.

  128. Not a lot of positives from the latest guidance:( the +NAO is just killing us right now. The storms just keep coming west. Let’s see what happens today and tomorrow.

  129. This sums it up right now….

    POSITIVE AO/NAO TRENDS STILL FCST PER CPC. MODEL SOLUTIONS 5-7
    DAYS OUT FAIRLY SUCCINCT IN KEEPING HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER THE
    BAHAMAS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MEAN JET PATTERN THRU THE NERN
    CONUS PROGRESSIVE WITH FAVORABLE RIDGING ALONG THE ERN CONUS
    PROMOTING STORM TRACKS N/W OF THE FCST REGION /INSIDE RUNNERS/.
    ALTHO THE PATTERN IS SUGGESTIVE OF A CONTINUED WARM/MILD
    TREND…THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES ALOFT MAY BREAK DOWN AND
    SHIFT E LENDING TO FAVORABLE TROUGHING ACROSS THE E CONUS BY DAY
    5-6. CONSENSUS IS GIVEN FOR DAYS 3-5…WITH THE WEEKEND FCST
    FILLED WITH UNCERTAINTY. BUT SHOULD HIGH PRES SHIFT INTO THE
    CENTRAL ATLANTIC…THIS COULD BRING A MORE CONSISTENT INTRUSION
    OF COLD AND DRY AIR /SEASONABLE FOR THIS

  130. For the weekend storm the NAO is going to be positive and there is no real cold air so this storm system to me is going to have to manufacture its own cold air. It looks like its a coastal hugger right now which is not good if you want snow near and at the coast. Given the pattern were in and I hope I am wrong I would not be surprised if these models trend warmer and yet again this turns into a rainorma.
    UGH meter at a 5 for the weekend storm since to me it could go either way right now.

  131. I am surprised that alot of people did not know about weatherundeground Its what i use alot of the time.
    tricky holiday storm. for this upcoming weekend.
    today sunny highs in the upper30s
    tonight increasing clouds lows in the mid 20s
    wednesday mostly cloudy a chance of late morning light mix then afternoon showers temps rising though the afternoon
    wednesday night mostly cloudy rain showers in the evening lows in the low40s
    thursday warm and sunny for the first day of winter with highs in the upper40s to low50s
    thursday night a front comes though a chance of showers lows in the low30s
    friday mostly cloudy as a storm travels to far south highs in the low40s
    friday night cloudy lows in the low 20s
    christmas eve day sunny and nice highs in the low 40s
    christmas eve night santa might need rudolph as there will be clouds on the increase with a chance of rain lows in the mid 30s
    christmas day mostly cloudy with a chance of rain highs in the upper 30s
    christmas night cloudy a chance of rain lows in the low 30

    storm1 to warm might start out as an icy mix for the high terrain of central and western mass but will be mainly rain
    storm 2 to far south with some light snow and rain for areas south and east of boston.
    storm 3 to far out to tell but looks to be mainly a rain even for areas around or inside 495 . with a mix of snow and rain in central and western mass.
    could be good for northern new england .

    1. For the Christmas Eve/Christmas Day storm, there is much model
      divergence. Thus it is up in the air. It could go either way and could even
      be a miss. We just don’t know yet.

    1. One thing for the Ugh Meter. The Euro has been locked in on this storm
      for a few days. That is usually an indication that the system will materialize and end up reasonably close to where it is depicted on the model runs. Let’s
      hope it is closer to the “benchmark” than depicted on he 0Z run. But as always, there is time and things can and will change.

  134. From NWS, upton NY Concerning Christmas storm:

    P-TYPE IS MAINLY LIQUID FOR THE COAST…BUT
    MAINLY SNOW NW…THOUGH WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY…HAVE NO
    CONFIDENCE FOR ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

    That about sums it up for now.

  135. I could not have said that better myself with what the NWS out of Upton, NY said.
    The 0z EURO looks like a coastal hugger if I am looking at it correctly.

    1. Centered Just SE of Nantucket. Still a snow producer for us in the dead of
      Winter with Artic high to the North, but in this case? Not so much.

      I wouldn’t quite call it a coastal hugger, but it is close. There is wiggle room
      to give us a benchmark for sure. But then again, wiggle it the other way and
      we have a true coastal hugger or even an inside runner.

  136. Reading all the posts here and reading the NWS forecast discussion for MA (‘though I think they are from the Albany area as they focus much of their discussion in the Albany area) I conclude that nobody can make a definitive forecast as yet. Most forecasts seem to be playing it safe – a lot are saying (on average) “snow and/or rain showers w/the possibility of light ice”. In any case – as I always say – we will know on Mon.! After the storm(if there is one) what will happen!

    1. btw, not that it necessarily means anything, but the 06Z DGEX run has
      the Christmas storm as a MISS much like the 06Z GFS. These models are not handling the split between the Northern stream and the Southern stream of the Jet. Presumably they’ll get a handle on it soon.

      Given that, the Euro probably has the better read of it. Therefore,I don’t think that the storm will be a miss, but we shall see.

    1. Hadi, that would be ideal!!!, but while viewing it, I see that it was issued
      YESTERDAY at about 2:30 PM. Would love to see their updated version
      of that.

  140. I’m still hoping for a miss – highly unusual for me – but reading John’s comments the other night got me to thinking about the hundreds of people who have to either keep the roads safe or be at work extra because of a storm that will not be with their families. It won’t affect my family much if it’s out Christmas morning (unless it’s a big storm) but I would hate for anything to spoil a family celebration – especially at a period in our history when things are tough as it is.

    1. Vicki,

      I know what you mean. We have to drive to our daughter’s house in
      Hopkinton on Christmas Day. Unless it were an all out blizzard, I enjoy
      driving in the snow and do not fear it.

      However, I don’t want any part of it if a storm were so bad that we could possibly get stranded somewhere! I usally will go and travel in the snow, but I have made the decision to stay home on a few occasions. (the right decision mind you.)

      1. OS I used to be fearless when it came to driving in snow. My dad was an excellent drive and taught me to drive in New Hampshire snow so I had the confidence and knowledge I needed. As I get older, although I’m a good driver, reflexes naturally slow down – same with my husband. We opt to not drive more because of that.

        Hopkinton is a lovely town. I particularly love their town common – very New England!! My daughter kept her horses in Holliston on the Hopkinton line and spent a good deal of her youth riding on the trails through that area.

  143. I just don’t see it, there’s spread but I see it trending Warner as of this am, and I still see mainly rain from Boston to providence.

    1. Starting to come out now! So, Yes, let us see what it has to say.
      I DOUBT that the storm will be lost or OTS with this run! lol

      1. I guess now, we see if the 12Z Euro also loses it! I don’t know what is going on???????????????????????????? Could it be the 12Z GFS run is just OUT TO LUNCH??????????????????????

  148. As of this morning, Henry Margusity is sticking to his guns and saying no storm for Christmas due to the +NAO…can’t say that I blame him. He says that he only goes with snow when the NAO goes negative, which is not going to happen anytime soon.

    Henry also mentioned that with the Halloween storm, the NAO did go negative briefly.

    TK & others…can the NAO go negative (or positive) w/o notice or do some signs have to be there in advance? I am still trying to understand about this AO/NAO stuff…kinda fun actually. 🙂

    1. The NWS this morning also mentioned the SE ridge over the Bahamas preventing troughness for the east coast. I believe THAT is going to be the real killer for snow lovers this upcoming winter.

  149. Amzing how the SE ridge just wants to hang tough. No sustained below average cold through the period.

    That storm is probably gone.
    Imagine if the Euro came around to the GFS!

    1. Retrac,
      Yes, that would be something. Usually it is the other way around.
      We’ll know somewhere around 2-2:30 today. If it is gone with the Euro, then
      I guess we’d have to say good-bye to that threat. Not much shaking after that.
      Then we’d be looking at the new year.

  150. He might be right Phillip, what I will disagree with is that he can only go with snow if there is a -NAO. I would bet my house that we have had snowstorms with a +NAO.

  151. I’m going to modify my snow gun tonight I think. There’s a possibility I could get more out of it with some efficiency gains. Probably going to need it for the weekend. Our guests are going to think I’m nuts.

    1. seems like one frame after another with return flow doesn’t it. Just breif cold fronts and dips then return flow.

  153. Henry Margusity may be right about Boston and coastal cities not getting snow from the next few systems, but inland will more than likely get much-needed snow (for the ski areas). Moreover, his absolutist statement on “not getting snow if NAO remains positive” is both illogical and inaccurate. From what I understand a negative NAO is more conducive to snowstorms occurring along the Eastern Seaboard, and generally to a colder winter. A negative NAO contributes to a better likelihood of snowstorms and cold. Nevertheless, it is not a necessary condition! Even in winters in which the NAO has remained positive or neutral we do get snow, and it is usually in the form of sneaky surprises.

    1. Joshua,

      What are your thoughts on the 12Z GFS losing the Christmas Storm?
      Out to lunch? OR Onto something which would probably verify?

      Many thanks

      1. I think we’ve seen GFS lose storms before only to have them right back two runs later. Models often have trouble handling patterns like these, where we’re sort of in a battle zone between unusual warmth to our south and seasonable cold to our north with nothing to lock in that cold (I’m glad we’re on the seasonable side today, but we’ll see some very unseasonably mild temperatures tomorrow into Thursday). My thoughts on the Christmas Storm are that yes, Boston will get a little snow out of this. I emphasize a little. The storm itself will be fairly fast moving and we the temperatures will be marginal for snow to stick and accumulate. But, I think enough cold will be with us to have us all at least enjoy a dusting to possibly several inches. Further inland, I expect more snow, and I expect the mountains to get a steady diet of snow showers (1-2 inches almost every day) beginning on Christmas Day, with temperatures fairly seasonable there (20s during the day). This would actually be fairly typical with weak highs to our north, warmth to our south, and weak lows traversing the boundary.

  154. Let’s just wait and see what the 12z EURO has to offer before writing this storm off.
    If by some reason Friday’s storm blows up after it passes us, it would act as a block and allow Sundays storm to bring us more snow since the High won’t be able to move east.
    I really think the Stratospheric warming that is going to take place over the next 10 days is going to have a huge effect on our pattern. I don’t think the GFS is picking this up very well.
    I posted 2 links earlier, one showing the Stratosphere temps today, and the temps at 240 hours. The PV will weaken very quickly, which will allow the warming to spread throughout most of the country.

  155. Channel 7 at noon time would not committ to anything, mentioning that the GFS lost the storm. Still saying too soon to tell.

  156. Clearly HPC throwing the 6Z gfs and the gfs overall

    ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
    ARE STILL NOT PARTICULARLY WELL CLUSTERED BUT THEIR CORRESPONDING
    MEANS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A WAVE REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
    EARLY DAY 6 MON… WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE 00Z
    ECMWF. THIS REPRESENTS A SLOWER TREND OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS.
    OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLNS VARY FROM THIS GROUP WITH THE 00Z
    GFS/UKMET MUCH FASTER… THE 06Z GFS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE… AND THE
    00Z CANADIAN SLOW AND MODERATELY OFFSHORE. SHARP/SLOW DEPICTION
    OF 06Z GFS ENERGY ENTERING THE WRN CONUS AT THE START OF THE FCST
    AND ITS FAST TIMING OF UPSTREAM FLOW LEAD TO DISCOUNTING THE 06Z
    GFS OVERALL. SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN CONSENSUS NRN STREAM
    SHRTWV CROSSING THE NORTHEAST IN THE 00Z ECMWF AND FAST EJECTION
    OF THE SRN SHRTWV IN THE 00Z GFS ON SAT LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
    SOLNS… BUT AT LEAST THE AGREEABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS YIELD MORE
    CONFIDENCE IN SOME VARIATION OF THE 00Z ECMWF THAN ANOTHER
    OPERATIONAL FCST AT THIS TIME.

  157. We shall see what the EURO says and wether to just toss out he GFS all together until it gets a better handle on the split flow

  158. You could get snow with a postive NAO however you will not get a blockbuster snow event. I am hoping the 12z EURO shows a storm.

      1. It may be still in play, but it doesn’t bode well for Snow, does it?
        Still time!

        http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=135&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=135&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

          1. Certainly, probably inside 495 even.

            However, that is still 4 days away.
            It could lose it by then! Lol! We shall see.

    2. Retrac,

      To get the link to work, you have to edit the wudnermap link in 2 places:

      1. Where the model is named. Your link had GFS. Change that to ECMWF
      2. Where the hour is. Change that to the hour you want displayed

      Then copy that and paste in the blog and you should be all set.

      1. Thanks o.s.!

        I agree, too early to call for a storm–forget amounts. I will say however that becasue of the lack of cold, I would be prepared for disappointment if I were inside of 95 and south of the pike almost no matter what and at the very least.

    1. I don’t get it. Obviously, the programming code that makes these babies
      run handles the various atmospheric parameters quite a bit differently to be
      sure. But these are both reliable operational models. Makes one wonder when
      one doesn’t even have the storm and the other has for all intents and purposes,
      and INSIDE RUNNER!!! Something is UP.

      Therefore, there probably is still a “chance” we get a benchmark storm out
      of this yet. But the history lately would argue against that, not to mention
      the + NAO.

      2. I’ve heard Margusity complain in the past about the GFS and that “they’re” always tinkering with the physics on these models. Only TK could speak to that I imagine. I mean, I’m sure “they’re” trying to continuously improve the models with better algorithms and whatever else. The point was that becasue “they’re” always tinkering, it’s tough to handicap an intrinsic model bias and forecast accordingly.

        I’m just a hack and I have no idea but it sounds interesting at least.

        How many of us have to handicap information in our careers based on a number of factors. That’s why bell curves exist I suppose.

        1. The GFS used to run half decently in the 1990s. They should have left it alone, or tested tweaks on a dummy model not available for release.

  162. OS if you click on projected snow fall it does show snow for areas close to the coast. I love that graphic btw.

      1. I went to the site and did see that. Interesting.
        I was trying to figure out how to post a link. Not successful so far.

          1. There is a parameter in the URL. For the surface pressure it is SURPRE, so I thought
            it might have been snowfall or SNOWFALL or SNF or SNFALL or SFALL or any other combination, but I couldn’t get it to work.
            We’ll just have to go there to see.

            But in anycase, if I look at it correctly, it looks like about 2-3 inches for Boston and about 4-6
            inchess inland.

            Do you agree?

  164. This is what I meant by trouble on a run to run basis with models.

    It’s also why you don’t see me react much to single runs for a system STILL 4 to 5 days away. It’s just not worth it.

    1. TK,

      Can you comment on how 2 reliable models can be so divergent with the
      results? Unreal, if you ask me.

  165. GFS is running poorly. It keeps taking the shortwave energy responsible for the Christmas storm threat and burying it in convection in the western Gulf of Mexico. I have seen this happen before, and is evident even more by the fact the Euro still has the storm (just with slightly slower timing). Discount the entire runs of the GFS for both 06z and 12z.

    1. Thanks TK.

      Appreciate your input on this. I thought that the GFS might have been
      out to lunch on this.

      LOL

  167. Friday nights system may be a bit of a surprise. I am seeing more qpf with favorable
    850MB temps and 1000-500MB thickness readings.

    Awaiting the 18Z NAM now.

  168. Thanks TK for your thoughts on the latest GFS run. It seems to me the interior have the best shot at seeing some snow if everything comes together for Christmas weekend.

    1. I think subsequent runs will have still higher qpfs.
      We shall see. If we can get that surface temp down enough, this one might
      do the trick for a white Christmas.

  172. look at the AFD from NWS

    12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
    TIMEFRAME. THE KEY FEATURE IS STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
    NORTHEAST AS SLIGHT BUILDING OF THE PERSISTENT SWRN HIGH PRES
    OCCURS. GIVEN THIS MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR GENERALLY DRY WX INTO
    THE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. WV IMG SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE OVER BAJA
    CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL EJECT NERD AND WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES SHEARED
    IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW FRI. WHILE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
    THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE /A WEAK LOW PRES/ WILL PASS JUST
    SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK…FEEL THAT PRECIP FIELDS ARE A BIT TOO
    HIGH N. STRONG RIDGING OVER SRN ON AND QC WILL LIKELY CREATE A
    VERY SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND…HOWEVER THIS
    WILL BE TOUGH TO DEFINE. AT THIS POINT…WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON
    THE OVERALL PATTERN NO PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS FAVORED. WITH COLD
    HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER AND A WEAK WAVE TO THE N…THERE MAY BE A
    NORLUN TROF SETUP SOMETIME DURING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
    TIMEFRAME…WHICH MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
    DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TROF…BUT HINT THAT THIS
    COULD BE A FEATURE TO WATCH. THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT COMES IN THE
    ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND JET LATE WEEKEND INTO
    EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. GFS TRIES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A
    WEAK WAVE AND SFC LOW OFFSHORE SUN….WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
    AND MORE ROBUST WITH A BENCHMARK CROSSING STORM LATE DAY SUN INTO
    MON. IN EITHER CASE…THE COLUMN IS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT
    LEAST SOME -SN WITH EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. WILL CONTINUE TO
    SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE THIS FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONVERGENCE
    IN THE FCST LATER THIS WEEK.

    1. Here is the EURO Christmas Eve/Day system snowfall map at 135 hours:
      (the way to do it is: On the WunderMap site over on the right towards the top there is a chain link symbol and the word Link. Click on that and it opens
      another tab with the PROPER URL. Cut and paste that and you’re in business!)

      http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=7&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=snow_3hr&mm.hour=135&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=1&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0

  175. I’ll go along with the EURO for Sunday and the NAM for Friday night. I still think there are problems with frozen precip on both……

    First on Friday, the boundary layer is going to be well above freezing, especially the further south you go and unfortunately, thats where most of the precip appears to be.

    For Sunday, the 45F ocean will be in play in Boston, its nearby suburbs and points south and east, even with a benchmark track.

    PS…my daughter is sitting here and says hello to all. It is fun listening to her pronounce the words EURO and NAM. 🙂

  176. By having snow on the ground thanks to Friday’s system would increase chances of a snowier scenario for Sunday’s system.

    1. Tom,

      Understand your concerns. My thoughts:

      For Friday, I think there will be rain at first, but it will transition to snow.
      probably and inch, perhaps 2 in Boston, up to 4 West and less to South
      and East.

      For Christmas Eve/Day, very difficult to say at this point. Should we get a benchmark storm or close to it, the winds would be somewhere between
      45 and 30 degrees. The closer to 0, the better. But if the precip is intense enough, I think there will be “just” enough cold air to keep it snow even
      in Boston. (could be a situation where it is rain or mix at Logan and snow
      downtown even) I have seen it rain at Logan and be ALL snow in JP, a mere 5 miles away.

      We shall see. At least we have something to watch and a “Chance” at a white
      Christmas!

          1. 🙂 Its pretty cool when that happens, snow vs rain over a few miles. We get that occasionally as well in Marshfield, where near the ocean, its going down the drain and 4 or 5 miles at Rte 3, they are plowing.

  177. WeatherWizard made this statement over at the blog from WBZ…

    The AO was negative on Monday but the AO forecast does not reflect so we might be getting a little colder than expected late week/weekend. It’s a long shot but you have to try and find the little things in this sloppy pattern right now.

  178. Storm #1 Is mainly a rain event wednesday afternoon and evening temps will rise into the upper40s. temps will rise again into the upper 40s and low50s! on thursday
    Sorm#2 A weaker storm but enough cold air will have filtered in for a mix of snow sleet and rain. there is a possibility of a light snow event.
    this might allow for a white christmas eve for some . areas inside 495 it will mainly be rain but do not rule out minor accumulations around the 495 belt.
    storm #3 the largest of the two and the most unknown at this point.
    track1 this storm goes to the south and gives a chance of some rain and snow showers for the cape.
    track 2 storm goest to the south of nantucket which will mean rain for areas south and east of boston with a mix inside 495/eastern mass. with all snow in the interior.
    track 3 and the one that i hope does not happen is that it tracks right over southeast mass which will mean it will be another rain maker with a mix for the high terrain.

    1. FWIIW,
      The 18Z DGEX has NO storm for Christmas Eve/Day or day after.

      So the model divergence continues.

      The bogus 18Z GFS is running now. LOL

  179. Matt Noyes
    MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes
    On vacation but just looked at guidance and is looking good for snow Christmas eve into day
    5 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

    Tim Kelley NECN
    SurfSkiWxMan Tim Kelley NECN
    ECMWF >> 1036 Polar High NewEng Sat Sunset. 1018 Low GA Sunday, deepens 29mb/24hr passing benchmark Christmas Night #AFewOfMyFavoriteThings

      2. Sorry Scott…Scenario #2 is presently “out of stock” until mid/late January, come back then, Lol. 🙂

        Have to laugh to keep from crying. 🙁

  183. Any snow Friday will be MINOR.
    The weekend still up in the air so not going to give an impact just yet but to me some precipitation will fall at some point during the weekend.

    1. Jimmy…I suspect for the weekend storm, LOCATION will be the main factor.

      You will likely have to give different numbers for interior and coast. Can you post your winter scale sometime? It has been awhile…Thanks.

  184. Hey Philip sure thing.
    1. MINOR snowfall dusting to 4 inches
    2. MODERATE snowfall 5-10 inches
    3. MAJOR snowfall 10-20 inches
    4. EXTREME 20 plus inches
    I am giving a one for Friday where snow falls and I don’t expect a level 3 snow event over Christmas weekend.

    1. Hadi I have my doubts about this one. I think there could be some snow but I just don’t see a double digit snow event at this time.
      Tom if that high is over Nova Scotia that is not a good position unless this storm could rapidly intensify and create its own cold air.

  186. Peeking at the 12z EURO, I’m looking at the frame for 120hr Sunday December 25. I see a 1013mb low over Atlanta, GA and a 1032 mb high over eastern Nova Scotia. This gives me pause. If this verifies, I think too much mild air comes in off the ocean prior to the storm’s arrival and even with a benchmark track, it takes most, if not all of the precip before the surface wind backs to the north and brings the boundary layer down to a temp cool enough for snow. Thats assuming the EURO and its current track is correct. I’ve seen little over the last several months that makes me confident of a perfectly tracking benchmark system. Still stubbornly doubting. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Can you please explain what you all mean by benchmark. It sounds to me like record setting but I have no idea what it means meteorologically

      1. Over the years of analyzing storms, a location just south and east of Nantucket (I think its 40 North Latitude and 70 West Longitude) has been found to be a place, that when lows travel over it, there tends to be snow for most of the viewing area including Boston. If the storm goes further south and east, then its usually the Cape or a miss, if it goes further north and west, then rain becomes more and more of a player.

  189. alright gang, I made a few modifications to the snow gun and it is cranking!! I think I’ve finally perfected it (after four years!) My kids are actually making snowballs. I’m going to let it run for a few hours. Maybe pictures in the morning. Hopefully I’m creating a nice base for things to come? At the very least, I’ll make a white Christmas if it’s cold enough beforehand.

    3. Haha, just curious what do the neighbors say, I know someone who did that and the neighbors were harassing him and calling him a weirdo and threatening him to get no snow on there property, it was a weird scenario, they wrote a letter to them stating they couldn’t even stand the sight of snow, Again it was weird

        1. I don’t get what they would be upset for but then again there r people out there that the word snow or the sight of snow makes some wanna throw up 🙂

  190. It will be interesting this evening to watch the temps under the scenario of a polar high slowly retreating east of us. At 7pm, the surface winds are beginning to veer. All day, they were northwest and northerly. Now they are light and coming out of the northeast or east. It is a reasonably chilly, very dry airmass. It will be interesting to see over the next few to several hours how the coastline and then further inland temps respond to this.

    1. yes……I’ll be very interested to see the latest EURO’s thinking tomorrow morning. I really have no feel for what the models will project tomorrow. In the last several months, this particular stretch of days seem to have featured the most uncertain 5 to 7 day outlook I can recall in a while.

  193. From some of the info and different model runs I continue to believe that the Boston to Providence corridor does not get much, I still believe for most of us in the metro area don’t see much, I’m still not sure we get any although I’m hoping

    1. Not long. My son’s school concert and chorus performance was tonight. It’s been a busy one!

  198. I also cranked a good base of 2 inches of snow for my sleeding hill and another one for the other part of the yard for snowball fights and things like that.
    I usually let the younger kids in my neibor hood use the hill for some fun. If i remember correctly one year i had 20 kids in my back yard.with the parents down by the dunkins.

  204. The Friday event is making me a bit nervous. It’s odd that all the tv mets aren’t worried about it. Its definitely a close call.
    I wonder if the 00z GFS finds Sunday’s storm.

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