Sunday August 22 2021 Forecast (9:15AM)

130 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

Henri was downgraded to tropical storm this morning. This is most important statistically as it means the hurricane landfall drought continues for New England with Bob (8-19-1991) still being the last tropical cyclone to make landfall as a hurricane in New England. Regardless, Henri as a strong tropical storm is still a formidable system as it moves into southern New England, with landfall on the coast near the CT/RI border by noon or a little after. There is a solid rain band ahead of the system that as of the time of this blog writing (9AM) is right over my head here, covering much of the Boston area and this will pivot northwestward over the next couple hours, producing some torrential rain and areas of flooding. What we can expect today as Henri moves ashore and inland, weakening, is for steadiest rain to the west of the center and a more showery set-up to the east (behind this main band). Strongest winds will occur east of the center and nearest the coast, 40-50 MPH with gusts to or above 60 MPH for a while in some locations, along with some storm surge of up to a few feet. The worst of this should occur between high tides which helps a little. I’m not going to waste too much time rewriting what I wrote yesterday about this, since we’re in the midst now. In the comments below several times today you will see a link posted to my colleague’s live blog and he will be updating that frequently. Henri’s slightly further eastward track means it may spend a little less timing “hanging around” but the system will still be around into Monday with additional showers and possible thunderstorms before it moves out and drier weather but very warm to hot weather enters the picture for the middle of the week.

TODAY: Cloudy through morning with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy afternoon with occasional showers and downpours, including possible breaks of sun especially RI and eastern MA to southeastern NH. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind variable 15-35 MPH, strongest South Coast where a period of higher winds occurs through midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and periodic showers, some possibly heavy. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 85-92. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

A frontal boundary slips down from the north cooling the region down later next week before a warming trend arrives the last couple days of the month. Limited rain chances, mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

The early days of September look fairly dry and on the warm side with high pressure dominating.

130 thoughts on “Sunday August 22 2021 Forecast (9:15AM)”

  2. Food morning and thank you TK

    Is Mom still coming home today?
    Hope so

    Spc still has Eastern sections in marginal risk with 2 % chance of a tornadoes.

  5. Thanks TK. Hoping Your Mom is still coming home today and Vicki I am glad you all got the wedding in yesterday!

  9. Thanks, TK. Hope your mom comes home today. And Vicki, saw the photos you posted of the wedding. So beautiful! Congrats. Downpour just ended here in Sudbury; still a little rain and breezy. Stay safe all.

    1. Coming home soon! She’d walk home in this if they didn’t let her out. 😉 hahaha! No, my brother will be getting her in a while.

  12. If I can editorialize for a moment, we just know there are going to be people out there saying things like “Storm? What storm?” or “Dud!” etc etc. It’s bullshit. Want to know why? Those people are the ones that bought into hype and didn’t pay attention to the actual information provided by meteorologists who are always willing to offer what they know. It’s too bad it didn’t so often get cloaked by gobs of glorification and sensationalism.

    So many folks out there will never learn the lesson. I guess that’s their own fault.

    Anyway, back to the here and now weather!

    1. We watched channel 5 news last night at 11 and I told my wife watch the hype we are going to be fed. I kept telling here
      it would NOT be a hurricane, only a tropical storm (sure high end, but not a hurricane). I told her the winds would not be too bad in the Boston area. I am certain many viewers thought Boston was in for a hurricane. Geez will it ever stop???????

      1. Harvey did a great job but you could see the news director’s infusion of hype all over the anchor scripts.

        3. That makes more sense. I’m following all on Twitter and not one has hyped. It trickles down from corporate

      2. I wondered where that came from. Several on the Sutton site insisted henri was coming directly over Sutton as a cat 1. I posted mais showing TS. Didn’t help.

    1. Old salty if you can tonight give me some updates from the city as I am reporting for duty at 12am unless there cancel us . Thanks

    2. That thing was producing decent cloud-to-cloud lightning and long deep rumbles. Boston / Cambridge / Woburn area all had thunder.

      1. I did not hear any at all. I didn’t have any windows open.

        btw, do the lightening display apps only display cloud to ground strikes?

  15. Thank you, TK.

    We drove home from Cape Cod early this morning and stopped by the eastern end of the canal to have a look. The waves were pouring in from the canal entrance.

    1. As I mentioned in my blog earlier, that station has its anemometer at 25m, not the standard 10m, so the winds will read a bit higher than other places.

  19. Thanks, TK.
    So glad Mom will be home very soon!!!!

    Not too bad here in Taunton. Winds have picked up in the last hour. Lights blinked off and on about 90 minutes ago, but holding. I will put the scanner on in a little bit.

  20. I continue to be unimpressed by Henri. Nothing about Henri
    impressed me from the get go. Just call me Jpdowner. 🙂

    2. I’m with you. Many places and events near me closed and/or cancelled today. Not sure why. If there was a wind advisory or high wind warning with some rain it wouldn’t be a big deal. Throw the word tropical in there and for some reason people lose their minds. Immediate coastal locations I can understand since there’s surge and higher winds associated with a tropical system. Inland, it’s just a windy rainstorm

  22. Thanks TK
    It is a little breezy where I am at times. I have seen worst winds during a Nor’easter but thankful for that eastward jog as CT was not in a good spot just a few days ago.

  23. Looking at the 12z GFS/NAM … the winding down center moves East tomorrow and the simulated radars sure look active with heavy rains moving west to east.

  28. Put down 1 for impressed.

    Yeah, it may not be the biggest wind impact at my location, but south coastal RI taking a wind hit, the rains by tomorrow night in some areas of western New England will be epic. Reports seem to indicate parts of NYC and areas of NJ got a deluge already.

    And the system came in, while easing wind wise from a very low cat 1 hurricane, it came in undisturbed at the upper levels and looks beautiful on satellite even to “landfall”.

    1. What you see here now Tom is I think what we will see . I was just out on the front farmers porch barely a breeze , cloudy skies with no rain . I am beyond happy with the outcome & wish folks in the affected areas the best of luck .

  29. Boston closing in on 1” of rain so far, keep it there as that’s not the case here at all .

  31. Looks like we have landfall just west of Charlestown, RI based on radar.

    Gust to 70 mph in Pt. Judith, RI, report of a gust to 76 on a hand-held anemometer on Pt. Judith.

  32. Sun is out here now . We are thinking of cleaning the pool & spending the day at it today as staring Tuesday it’s going to be high 80s

  33. Still look like the worst of the wind for Cape will be over by mid day? Some good gusts but on the whole not too bad. Rain is long gone.

    1. You may see sun there later as it’s filtered here in pembroke. It’s a shame the marshfield fair is closed today & other well known places like the Brantrock market .

      1. I’d have closed the fair too. One of those torrential rain feeders could have just as easily set up right over that area. We can’t really know that until the day it happens, so they had to make a call.

        For example, not too many forecasts had the 4 to 8 inch rainfall deluge in advance in NJ that occurred last night. Almost like a sideways PRE on the west side of Henri.

  34. Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
    1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

    …TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE
    ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY…

    Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler
    weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of
    Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island
    near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the
    time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60
    mph.

    A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently
    measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
    (113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode
    Island, around 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC.

  37. One of the pages I admin .. so many people complaining about not getting the worst. Huh? YOU’RE LUCKY if you didn’t. I had to post a photo of the child sitting on the roof of the house that was nearly submerged in floodwater in Tennessee. Be careful what you wish for.

    I love a good storm too, but let’s get real.

  38. Thanks TK.

    We are taking off from Turks and Caicos for Miami now. Reports from back home in Coventry Ct are that we have over 3” of rain on the day so far (was raining 1” per hour as the western edge of the center moved through) but so far wind gusts and power outages have been underwhelming.

    So far our flight back to BDL has not been cancelled so crossing our fingers. The projected wind speed at BDL when we are supposed to land at 12:30am is 10mph….lol.

    1. Probably 25 here…maybe one near 30 during the heavier rain. I had one very brief car-wash against the east side of the house moment when that band went through.

  43. Thanks for incredible info as always & so happy TK’s mom is back home!

    Not much to report from downtown crossing – all is pretty quiet I think but my tower is built like Fort Knox so I may not realize if the wind is still high… no rain now though.

  44. Quick question: I have seen mention of some rain coming back across the state west to east tomorrow. Is this likely to be a significant amount of rain and focused in a particular area?
    Thanks.

    1. It would not surprise me if some areas pick up 1″+ of rainfall tomorrow. Can’t pinpoint yet.

      1. We knew that the heavier rain would be well to the West of our area, that’s for sure. We had a rain-free breezy afternoon. I have seen windier days during the summer with
        a nice SouthWest wind. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Had 1 inch of rain this AM, mostly in one band.

        I fully understand that it was a different story on the south Coast. Just saying it was a nothing event here is all.

          1. Which is a great example of how a wind radius and other aspects of a storm and interaction with surroundings make a huge difference.

        2. Indeed.

          I’m fascinated by what others got. Agreed that eastern Mass has seen a breezy summer day, which is good.

          I arrived in SW Maine yesterday for a long ago planned camping trip and today has been foggy, thick mist, embedded showers and humid day with lots of mosquitoes cause it’s not terribly breezy 🙂 🙂 🙂

  46. How close did Henri come to making landfall when he downgraded to a tropical storm? How many miles from our South Coast?

  47. Arrived in Miami and connecting flight back to BDL still running on time!

    Lots of flooding occurring back in CT. Interstate 91 under water in Wethersfield and closed between exits 25 and 27.

  48. It was indeed ho-hum in Back Bay. Not complaining. I think the forecasts were good, actually. They generally were accurate in terms of where the bulk of the wind and rain would be, and no-one said Boston would have either a lot of rain or wind.

    I feel badly for those impacted by the deluge of rain in parts of Tennessee. So far at least 16 reported dead. That number will surely be rising in the coming days.

    In terms of our weather, my only complaint is that it has been a prolonged stretch of humid weather. Not excessively oppressive, but also no respite from it. Doesn’t appear that we’ll be getting anything fall-like for the coming 10 days. Time is running out, though, on old man summer. I’ll give him a few more weeks, but then one day we’ll wake up to crisp, autumn air. Until then it’ll be mostly soupy.

    1. I just hope that we can get a few good snow events for this upcoming winter. I have a bad feeling though that it may end up opposite from the summer.

      Summer 2021 = hot & wet (& miserable at times)

      Winter 2021-22 = cold & dry (kiss ‘em goodbye?)

  50. A total of only 30,000 people out of power right now in CT despite the center of the storm passing through the state. A far cry from the dire projections they had of over a half million people losing power with potential outages of 7-14 days. No surprise every gas station in Coventry has run out of gas. Wish I hadn’t left my car at the airport with a nearly empty tank!

  52. Wednesday and/or Thursday night’s low temps may be about the same as next Saturday’s high temp. 😉

  53. I just tried watching TWC’s coverage for a few minutes…

    Ouch. That was very uncomfortable.

    Thank goodness we have a good market in Boston. 🙂

    I have nothing more to say…

  54. Extreme eastern PA, northern NJ to the western edge of NYC, wow ! That rain blob has parked there and is circulating. They got clobbered overnight too. What will their rain totals end up being ?

    1. Would have been a lot less because of the inability of cold air to hold that much moisture, but the setup of a backward moving low would have produced a decent snow in the Berks and NY State.

      1. I know about cold air and moisture 🙂 it was more about the sensor on long island showing 32 degrees and yeah would of been a decent snow event for interior NE areas.

  58. For those worrying about ho hum. We may have an Angel to thank in addition to those here who gave so much support Too tired tonight to post more but will tomorrow

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