A Touch Of Winter, Then Rain Wins Out

58 Comments

4:32PM

Colder air is filtering into New England at this time and is setting the stage for a short-duration snow event Friday morning as a warm front crosses the region. The warmer air will win out at least aloft so that rain should take over before the steadiest precipitation moves out. It may never really get all that warm at the surface as the cold air gets stuck there. In either case, a cold front will sweep west to east across New England Friday evening with a round of rain showers (some possibly heavy including a chance of thunder). This will set the stage for a cool and very windy Saturday and slightly more tranquil conditions by  Sunday though still chilly with a gusty breeze.

The first part of next week should feature quiet weather with moderating temperatures. Unsettled weather may move in as we close out February (Leap Day) on Wednesday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Snow developing between 4AM & 6AM except mixed rain/snow south of the Mass Pike. Low from the middle 20s inland valleys to lower and middle 30s immediate coast. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow north of the Mass Pike, mix to the south, eventually changing to mix and rain all areas from south to north by noon with snow accumulations generally 1 inch or less. High 40-45 late day but may hang in the upper 30s in the valleys. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region mostly before 9PM. Low 30-35. Wind variable eventually shifting to W and increasing to 15-30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH. Wind damage is possible.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 43.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain. Low 30. High 44.

58 thoughts on “A Touch Of Winter, Then Rain Wins Out”

  1. Thanks TK – hope you are back sitting with your feet up – good grief I sound like a mother hen

    And what’s this about a potential storm next week – I was away for a few hours and came back to a surprise – I hope!

    1. Way too early yet to really worry about it but I don’t have high hopes for big snow at this stage. Lots can change though!

      1. But you can let us have some fun with it at this stage.

        You must get a chuckle out of us watching each and every run. 🙂

        Do you get any satisfaction when you see us toss in the towel and give up? 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Let’s hope for a big surprise next week!

      1. Needless to say, I think the amounts are too high and too much of the area is highlighted to receive snow accumulations.

  4. Don’t take the carrot, the nam I think is overdone and if u live in the Boston to Providence corridor and r expecting over an inch I think if we get a sugar coating at 5-6 am it will be washed away rapidly by the rain by the late commuters

  5. i want the old man to smack us in the face friday.:) if the snow map is correct my area gets 2-4 inches of snow.lets see if the cooling trend continues with the next run or goes warm again.

  6. Sunrise at 6:30 am tomorrow morning. By 8:30am, the sun is 20 degrees above the horizon and by 10am, the sun is 30 degrees above the horizon. Just another aspect, I believe, working against snow tomorrow in a situation where temps are very marginal. Sun tomorrow is similar to sun on October 18th.

  7. 18z GFS (I know its the 18z) but looks like rain for next wed/thurs and no phasing. The one for 3/3 – 3/4 i think has a lot more potential, with possibly rain to heavy snow

  8. Tweet from Joe Bastardi
    Snowstorm for NY state and New england north of I84. Finally. further east. boston biggest storm of season ( 3-6)

    Not sure which universe he is from…

  11. I think they will come close since they will be in the warm sector but fall just short of the 80 degree mark.
    Snow Index at 1 for the areas that see snow since I don’t expect greater than 4 inches to happen.

  12. Did anyone Get to see the planets and the moon. In alignment they are (if I remember correctly) Jupiter Venus Uranus Moon Mercury – top to bottom. Moon is what my mom always called Gods fingernail:)

  13. Quite curious to see if the 00z NAM is similar to the 18z run. If it is, then those tv mets will be staring at all their new grey hairs.

  14. Cleveland, OH…which seems to be under an area of steady precip is 38F with light rain. Don’t know how long it’s been precipitating for, but it might be a location to watch the next few hrs for temp and precip type. Wonder if it may give some hints towards what happens away from the coastline locally tomorrow.

        1. I hear you, but I just don’t think the “front-end quick dump” is going to happen here. That matchup of needing the heavy burst of precip to fall with the brief cold air in place seems to much to expect for this winter.

  18. Tweaked forecast. With the precip shield coming in further south, in less favorable snow conditions, and less precip where it is favorable for snow, I think it all spells out pretty much 1 inch or less.

  19. How are the dew points looking in the area? I think it could look good for a bit but not much accumulation due to the warmth we have been experiencing.

    1. As of 9pm, temps and dew points in southeast Mass are generally low 40s/low 20s respectively. I don’t know what that would translate to as a wet bulb temp, but probably somewhere in the low-mid 30s.

  20. Ground is very warm, I agree with tk an inch or less, it’s gonna start raining at 5am then possibly changing to a quick burst of snow between 5-6am but rapidly changing to rain from se to nw with everyone in eastern mass in for a rainstorm 🙁 the winter that never came continues, have a good day and don’t forget your umbrella tommorrow. 🙂

  23. Hard to believe it will snow in Boston this morning with the temps around 38 degrees in Brighton right now. NWS posted a Wind Advisory from 8am thru 6pm for most us today.

  24. Those winds are going to be the big story tonight into tomorrow. I would not be surprised if there are some power outages across parts of SNE. I know I got my battery powered operated radio ready just in case. At least were not dealing with severe weather as parts of the Mid Atlantic and South may have some nasty thunderstorms.

    1. That should be interesting to watch. It is incredibly warm down there, mid 60s to near 70F this early morning.

      1. You got the cold front coming through providing the lift and as you mentioned the temps are already way up there.
        The big story up here is not severe weather but the POTENTIAL for some strong gusty winds tonight into tomorrow.

    2. That’s what I’ve been waiting for – and only had to wait a week – to watch on the weather station. Now I only have to hope they put the anemometer up well enough that it doesn’t blow away 🙂

  25. Most climo stations, for a second straight day, recorded a +10 to +15F temp anomaly. This should have Logan sitting at or a little over +6F thru Feb. 23rd.

  28. Just looking at some of the storms reports parts of CT got 4 5 inches of snow. Bridgeport, CT had a record high of 60 yesterday now has 2 inches of snow. You got to love New England weather.

    1. At the end of this winter, a snowfall seasonal total map would have the south coast (So. CT eastward to Cape Cod) with a 20 inch band over it. And somewhere over most of the heart of Massachusetts would be a 5 to 8 inch rectangular band.

      And with this, at least with the initial band, another missed opportunity for precip. I hope we get some precip later today from the second impulse. Continues to be dry.

  30. Hi all!

    Just posted a quick update. The accumulation, as you know, is mainly to the south, and is pretty much ending, so I have carried no mention of further accumulation since whatever falls from here on will be very minor.

    Somebody feel free to post a link to any snow reports that come out via the NWS!

    I’ll be away from the computer for a few hours, but I may post from the phone a bit later.

    Have a great day all and be safe.

    See you on the new post……….

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