Summer Preview (Again)

62 Comments

5:49PM

Too many of these previews and once the real thing gets here we’ll already be bored with it (well maybe not everybody).

After another very warm day in much of the region, a back-door cold front has arrived to drop temperatures in east coastal areas of southern New England. Boston, as of 5PM, has seen a temperature drop of 20 degrees from its high of 74, down to 54. The boundary has pushed inland some, with temperatures cooling down there as well from highs in the 70s and lower 80s, the 2nd day in the current stretch of this preview of summer. And other than this minor interruption this evening and early tomorrow in eastern sections, we’ll get right back to the warmth again by later Tuesday and certainly for Wednesday-Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. The warmest day does now appear that it will be Thursday as all areas should have a land breeze. Many locations will be around 80 on Wednesday and most will surpass it on Thursday. One item of note for Thursday, a southwest wind coming across Long Island Sound, where relatively cooler water is, may create enough of a boundary in parts of RI and southeastern MA including Cape Cod to fire off some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. It is a low probability, but should not be ignored.

By Friday, a cold front from the north will introduce cooler air, which will continue to be reinforced through the weekend. We’ll have to watch some unsettled weather approaching from the west as well over the weekend, which will certainly not be as grand as the next few days. But after all, it is March, and eventually normalcy will try to return. Looking ahead, at least the first half of next week looks much cooler than this week will be.

And the current weather pattern rendering the following information pretty much unimportant, but Spring begins Tuesday morning at 1:14AM, the Vernal Equinox, when the sun is directly over the Equator on its trip into the northern hemisphere.

Forecast for southern NH, RI, and eastern MA…

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog forming. Low 40-45 except 45-50 interior higher elevations of RI and areas southwest of Boston in MA. Wind nearly calm except light E nearer the shoreline early.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with patchy fog dissipating during the morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High reaching the middle 70s inland ranging down to the lower and middle 60s nearer the shoreline, some 50s on Cape Cod. Wind nearly calm to start then S up to 10 MPH in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low middle 40s inland valleys to lower 50s most areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High from the middle 70s to lower 80s, warmest inland locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but local sea breezes near the shore.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southern areas late day. Low 54. High 84.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 63.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 35. High 54.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the day, rain or snow showers at night. Low 35. High 46.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Low 30. High 52.

62 thoughts on “Summer Preview (Again)”

  1. Thanks TK! 🙂

    Fwiw…BAILEYMAN (troll?) has posted a forecast for snow next week yet again over on the WBZ blog. The troll is consistent if nothing else. Also the CPC does have “normal” temps for us in their 14-day outlook. I suspect the usual back door front?

  3. Thanks TK ! It’s now dropped into the low-mid 50s here by the ocean. But, no low clouds, the sun is still out brightly, it feels quite comfortable.

    The thing that really amazed me today were the showers and storms in northern New England and New York State. To watch them pop up and barely move under a summer like ridge is unbelievable.

      1. :). Right now, nothing. My heat hasn’t clicked on since…….I can’t remember.

        But, I know what you mean, my biggest “weather fear” is that it’s 43F and rainy Memorial Day Weekend and the year without a summer is coming…or something like that.

        1. Tom…spring will always have an issue here and there, but I really doubt we will have a repeat of summer 2009. A summer like that is unlikely to return again in our lifetimes.

  5. Boston is at +23F for the day, Worcester is at an amazing +29F for the day.

    Have to figure tomorrow is another +20F departure, Wednesday and Thursday closer to +30F. Friday will probably get towards +15F.

    I’m thinking by Friday, which is March 23rd, that accounts for a little more than 70% of the month, Logan and the other 3 major climate station March anomalies are going to be near or slightly above 10F for the month !!!!

    Unless something bizarre happens the last 8 days of the month, such as a couple of days with highs in the 20s……I think March will beat November’s 5.7F anomaly and maybe beat it handily.

  7. With all these warm weather facts……..currently north of 60N latitude, most stations are still reporting air temps of -15F to -25F, Hudson Bay is frozen, the arctic ice pack is near its seasonal maximum and there’s a snow cover in central and northern Canada. So, a change in the overall pattern and there’s still time for a major reality check of cold.

  9. Looking like spring on the radar tonight with multiple tornado watches up for parts of Texas.

    1. I wonder how much rain parts of Oklahoma and Texas have gotten. Just behind the squall line is a big area of very heavy rain.

  10. Today should be interesting along the coastline. It’s foggy, winds are light…..however, I think the sun should break through and it’s 43F atop Mt. Washington. I get the idea, kind of like yesterday, coastal communities could have a light ocean breeze and temps may still climb thru the 60s. Happy spring all !

  11. I haven’t seen Vicki post much in the last day. She must be having so much fun with the families little new addition. 🙂

    1. Hi Coastal – I am coming up for a breath – and you are so right I am having a wonderful time. The big sister has been staying here and along with my grandson who is also here we have had a wonderful time. I got to spend all day yesterday in the hospital with daughter and baby while dad spend some time with big sister. Baby goes home today if all is ok!

    2. Whatever happens, both the GFS and Euro are absolutely crashing temps next mon night into tues as that weekend system departs and draws down not older colder air, but cold air. If it lasts long enough, snow is not out of the question

      1. The thing I find when we get shots of cold air this time of year it does not have staying power.
        As I said yesterday I would not rule out one last shot of snow for the elevated areas of the interior but I don’t think
        it is likely.

        1. Funny thing is, the entire winter has been like that. Cold shots have quickly come and gone. As much as I would like to see snow out of that system, I think the spring bug has hit me and I’m all in.

  13. Sorry I could not post the numbers for days below freezing sooner. This is the first time my computer has been on since last Friday. Here they are: Is there a prize for the person (or three) furthest away 🙂

    Charlie 2
    Philip 3
    Hadi 3
    Rainshine 3
    WeatherWiz 4
    JimmyJames 4
    AceMaster 5
    John 5
    KWM-Hingham 6
    Tom 8
    Matt Souza 12
    Vicki 13
    Coastal 15

      1. I asked about 10 days ago how many nights below freezing would Boston get, the highest is 15 which I’m not sure we get 15 nights below 40 :). And the lowest is 2, since contest started there have been 2 nights below freezing

        1. well, looks like I’m too late but I’ll give an endorsement anyway.

          With two on the board already and average lows increasing, hmmm, I’m going to endorse KWM-Hingham with a total of six.

          1. retrac no reason you can’t play – I’ll add your name – no one really knows what could happen between now and then

  14. Hey TK,

    Any chance you can peek out for Friday-Friday for Orlando and see what you think? I see some chances of T-Storms daily, but wondering how that cold front coming in on Monday here is going to impact Florida. My 7 month pregnant wife really needs some nice weather!!! LOL

  16. I’ll tell ya if we ever did get enough to salt roads all these towns and cities that in some instances are done with there street sweepings and parking lot sweepings would have wasted millions of dollars, like I said patriot place put there plows away 3 weeks ago, and my street is spotless from the little sand they used this past winter, but like I have said probably a million times haha 🙂 winter is toast like Ocho stinko 🙂 Go Patriots have a good day everyone

  17. The only sticking point in my mind is that the AO and NAO dip into negative one last time between now and April 1st. Otherwise, my winter coat would have been in the dry cleaners and put away by now.

    TK, any thoughts on the next two weeks? Other than lack of significant rainfall, I feel like we are getting away with something by having maybe the best spring ever in NE weather history.

    1. I say we just keep breaking records. If I see signs of this continuing, may need to start thinking about my pool..But suspect things will get normal soon.

      1. Thinking of the pool here too. Last year we had to replace the liner so the opening was delayed until early July. This year I’m thinking of sometime in April (even if it turns cooler).

    1. yep that or just plain global warming due to cyclical changes AND manmade changes………I figure we’ll just keep looking for excuses to explain the obvious…….my opinion only 🙂

      1. I can’t buy into global warming because, if that were the case, how do you explain all the snow and cold in Europe this winter?

        1. global warming creates an evaporation over the poles – wayyyy untechnical but causes more precip. Can be cold or warm. Either way, I can’t buy into what we have done to this earth not affecting it in very significant ways.

        2. warming of polar regions creates areas of really cold air .
          , Feel luke warm water. then put ice into it.the areas right around the ice is much colder than the areas not as close.Just a guess. It is what is happening with the northern pacific and north atlantic and areas around antartica. the melting of ice is creating colder ocean temps around the ice caps and the warming of the other areas of the oceans are leading to larger storms and dramatic weather events.just a guess. if someone can carify this as well for me that would be great and say if i am wrong or right please say something not sure.

        3. I believe in global warming, it’s just happening to slow for everyone to be on board but I suspect over time in maybe 3,000 yrs everyone will be on board, have a great day 🙂

    2. To Henry’s point about lack of snow in central Canada. While this is true (in southern central sections anyways), eastern sections of Canada just to the north of us still have a deep snowpack. I think it was Tom who posted yesterday, many locations are still reporting very cold subzero air along with a frozen Hudson Bay. If we were to get a storm ride up the coast and a strong high in that area of Canada, it would not take much to draw down that cold air.

  19. I was wondering if someone could help me on this. A neighbor just gave us an African Violet. I have a few houseplants and I use regular soil for them. Do I need special soil for African Violets?

    1. I found this if it helps – http://www.hort.purdue.edu/ext/ho-10.pdf

      My mom grew spectacular African Violets. My youngest, who was 4 when my mom died, and I bought one to put in a pot my mom had. I had absolutely no luck but darned if it didn’t sprout one flower on it’s otherwise brown stalk on the 1st anniversary of my mom’s death. Good luck!!!

  21. Thanks, Vicki – that link did help. I figured as much. I have some arrowhead plants (non-flowering) that use basically regular soil. Guess I’ll need to get to Russell’s at some point. The plants look ok now but just in case they need soil at some point. Hope the soil isn’t too expensive! 🙂

    Amazing that your plant sprouted on the anniversary of your mom’s death! Very special and must have made you feel good.

    1. I kinda laughed at the idea of 90 on thurs, but now, im not so sure. Seems like high temps past 2 days have been 4-5 deg warmer than forecasted. Forecast high for thurs around 85….hmmm….

      1. Agreed !! I wonder if MT Washington may give us a hint early Thursday morning. The last few days, a summit temp of 45 to 49F has translated to inland temps of 80 to 82F. So, I’m thinking if it’s 50F to 55F Thursday morning, and all the local surface winds are west-southwest, than that may be the clue that 90F is coming, assuming full sunshine. Another amazing aspect of this warm weather, how many sunny warm sector days has the region seen in March? Crazy, usually the warm sector this time of year is at least cloudy and sometimes rainy.

  23. All… Hi! Busy day, sorry for being relatively absent. You all are doing a great job without me keeping the discussion rolling right along. 🙂

    Philip… Seeing trends for more frequent cool shots after this week which may be setting us up for a cooler than normal stretch sometime mid Spring (April-May).

    1. CPC is now in agreement with this assessment and is holding us in normal temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods. I am nearly certain the insanely warm stretch is entering its grand finale.

      May want to wait on opening the pools, etc.

  25. All the trees are budding, never seen it this early wow, we need rain and I think we get rain late in weekend and into next week there’s a few showers possibly, like tk said temps come back to normal with highs in the mid 50’s and nights around 40 🙂

  26. We’ll see some upper 20s next week for low temps, at least inland.

    Blog is updated!

  27. Even when it cools back to normal at least it will look like mid may with all the trees and plants budded

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