Tuesday January 31 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)

110 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

A cold front passing through the region overnight brought with it a swath of precipitation, generally light, starting as rain for some areas but winding up as snow, enough for a coating on some surfaces. This lingers from the south Coast to MA South Shore early this morning before moving out, followed by some clearing and a slightly colder day today end the month of January, which was very mild overall. February opens with a couple seasonably cold days and dry weather with high pressure in control. A wave of low pressure may just clip the Cape Cod / Islands region with a bit of light snow first thing Wednesday morning. On Friday, a sharp arctic cold front will move quickly through the region, and may be accompanied by a brief snow shower or snow squall. It opens the door to a quick-hitting blast of dangerously cold air, the coldest since February 14 of 2016. The core of the cold will be timed so that nearly the entire region falls below zero for Saturday morning, but there will be a period of dangerously cold wind chill temperatures starting later in the day Friday and not easing up until later in the day Saturday, so about 24 hours.

TODAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain to mix South Coast, and light snow just inland from South Coast to South Shore of MA, ending by mid morning. Sun returns thereafter from west to east. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return South Coast and mostly clear sky to the north. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds and a brief period of snow possible Cape Cod & Islands early morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a passing snow shower/squall possible morning, then sunny. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 in interior southern NH and north central MA to -10 to -5 from the NH Seacoast through the interior portions of eastern MA to -5 to 0 in the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to northern RI, and 0-5 along the South Coast. Wind NNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -20 to -40 at times.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Late-day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill as low as -25 to -35 in the morning, easing slowly as the day goes on.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Quick warm-up Sunday February 5 comes with a chance of some snow then rain. Watching a wave of low pressure to potentially bring some rain/mix/snow to southeastern areas early Monday otherwise dry, turning colder later in the day but not nearly as cold as the previous shot. Seasonable cold for the middle of next week – maybe with brief precipitation then a return to dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Watching for potential wintry precipitation episodes mid period with variable temperatures.

110 thoughts on “Tuesday January 31 2023 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    A bit of an “overachiever” such as it was? 😉

    I suppose Worcester expanded its lead for the season.

    1. -10 in the CITY!! NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      I worry about pipes in the basement with those temps.
      Our furnaces/boilers are relatively new and do not
      give off a lot of heat in the basement.

      I have the main water pipe coming in insulated.
      It has been no problem down to about -4 or so.

      I am not sure what the lowest we have experienced
      with the furnaces. I would say -10 might be pushing it.

      We’ll be leaving the faucets on with a good steady drip for sure.

      I hit the like button for the GFS
      5 above for Boston

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023013106&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      I hit the HATE Button for the EURO
      -9 for Boston

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023013106&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      GDPS/CMC -4

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023013100&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      UKMET -8

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023013100&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      ICON

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2023013106/icon_T2m_neus_35.png

      1. In framingham, our pipes ran through the attic so I absolutely understand your concern. Here, pipes are well insulted except the one to the kitchen that was added on second floor. It goes through the garage. But so far the heat tape has held. Knock on wood.

        Are your pipes exposed so you can put heat tape on them?

  7. I think a bit more than a coating here this morning.

    Looks to be 1/2 to 1 inch. A very nice morning greeting. 🙂

  8. https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1620417659727904769?s=61&t=

    Final day of a remarkable month

    For the first time on record, there wasn’t a single day with a high at or below freezing in Boston, Providence, or Hartford

    No 10s at all 3 sites, either. #wbz

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1620423109122871298?s=61&t=3EFXa9MUKqm1MgY34EVZXg

    Perhaps the most amazing feat…the *average* low was above freezing.

    Coldest temp was 23F…also a record for warmest monthly minimum.
    Table photo https://imgur.com/a/fUIYNmC

    I agree with the gentleman who said a bit ago that it is too late.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Wild and wacky roller coaster ride. From one of the mildest Januarys on record to one of the coldest February nights, followed by a snow to rain (!) event the next day! And then more or less back to meh weather. Needless to say, this has not been my kind of winter.

    1. Our opportunities for snow will be dwindling as well. I still say that the projected above normal temps won’t help matters either.

      1. You can get snow with above normal temperatures……….

        And actually our opportunities for snow are going to be increasing over the next couple weeks. Take note of what WxW said.

        1. It’s just difficult for me to picture “big snowstorm” after looking at a CPC temperature outlook map with those deep red and orange colors. 🙂

  12. Was the morning snow shower activity “Stage 1” if you will of the big arctic airmass for this weekend?

    1. No this was a cold front that was passing through the region but it is not an Arctic boundary. That will be coming through on Friday morning. Colder air filters in behind this one for mid-week but it’s more of a seasonably cold air mass for this area.

  13. We have not had issues with frozen pipes in the past but I am a worrier. Most exposed pipes are for the heating system and have antifreeze which should help. Still hoping we have a bit of moderation in cold as some are speculating. Ch. 5 seems to have low of 4 below in Natick and high of a balmy 17 on Saturday.

    1. It’s a good thing it’s coming on a weekend. Otherwise there would probably be massive school cancellations.

    2. The good news is the short lived nature of the coldest air, like 2-14-2016, will limit pipe bursting issues.

    3. You are very right. Many heating pipes have glycol but other homes may not unless the the homeowner asks to have it added. We never worried about heat pipes in Framingham because the water was always moving through the pipes……unless we lost power. But water pipes are always a concern. Good luck

  14. 3km NAM, HRRR and the 12z GFS have a bit of snow in southern New England at hrs 21 – 27.

    Either a tiny bit of synoptic snow, but also some OES mostly for Cape Cod.

  18. Thanks TK.

    Had a light coating of snow on the ground this AM in Coventry but it has melted away.

    For entertainment purposes, here is the NWS point and click forecast for Mt Washington at 1AM Saturday:

    Temp: -40F
    Dewpoint: -44F
    Wind: NW at 77mph, gusting to 97mph
    Wind Chill: -95F

  21. Saturday was supposed to be a day trip to Killington. We have few other opportunities to go skiing this month based on schedules. I am waffling on what to do as the actual ski conditions are great and they are nearly 100% open. Forecast is for a low of -20 there and a high of -4. Morning wind chills start near -40 and then “warm” to -20 as the winds die down. I have skied in weather this cold before at Stowe, Jay Peak and Gore. The temps are tolerable if you are dressed for it in plenty of layers and have hand and foot warmers. It is the wind I am concerned about and potential lift closures due to the cold. Probably will be a last minute decision. Hoping the models back off a bit 🙂

    1. Back in the day, my wife and I skiid Ragged with the day time
      temp of -14 with brutal wind!! We managed just fine. 🙂

      I couldn’t tolerate it now, that’s for sure. 🙂

      go for it.

  22. Jackson NH was nice this past weekend. Sunny and fairly mild with temps in the upper 30’s and the snow conditions were great on the cross country ski trails. I’d estimate they have a good 12-18″ of compacted natural snow on the ground there. Been awhile since I’ve seen snowbanks on the sides of the road and in the parking lots that big (over the height of cars in spots).

    Driving up Rte 16, there was almost nothing on the ground in Portsmouth but the snow depths and snowbanks increased very quickly as you headed north only about 20 miles towards Rochester. I also noticed driving further NW through Crawford Notch and up towards Bretton Woods that the snow depth actually decreased.

    In any event, here are a few shots I took cross country skiing. I love how you can ski through the village from inn to inn. Great network of trails there….

    https://imgur.com/TEbHNMF

    https://imgur.com/Ru7bfhX

    2. Just breathtaking photos. Even back in the day that was a huge cross country ski area. Big smiles here 🙂

  23. Vicki, regarding your post the other day, I did not see a Jack Frost ski shop in Jackson but did snap this picture inside the Wildcat Inn where we stopped for a drink at the end of the day. Note the sign over the bar 🙂

    https://imgur.com/Aubyhbz

    1. Awww what an awesome photo. Thank you for sharing. I suspect Jack Frost went the way of Carroll Reed. And the trail to the Ellis river. I saved this and will share with my kids. Many thanks, Mark,

    1. It’s still winter. Just reminds me a lot of some of the ones like 1979-1980, 1980-1980, and a bunch of others in there. It didn’t like to snow here all that often during those years from the end of the 1970s to the early 1990s. 😉

  26. ECMWF 2m temp forecast seems to be getting less accurate as we get closer to the cold shot. I am pretty sure it did the same thing for the 2016 event.

      1. As of today’s 12z guidance, the GFS ensemble is probably the closest to what will turn out to be reality. The ECMWF, operational and ensemble, will not verify.

    1. The signs have been there for a while, even though as WxW said, they would not be showing up on guidance at first. Things haven’t changed, except a couple of questionably-timed events are now starting to show up. Yes, the pattern looks interesting ahead. 🙂 The entire evolution, coming as no surprise, is slower than I thought, but that’s fine.

  28. Not weather related but wanted to mention something weird:

    I’ve been having migraines lately – been to the docs twice about it. But that’s not the weird thing, just mentioning because normally I’m in a better mindset about things outside of this. I arrive home yesterday dealing with it and this nice sounding Irish lad pops out of his truck that was about to drive by asking if I’m the home owner and asks if we wanted our driveway repaved. When I tell you that this driveway is in utter disrepair and sunken in and we’ve been wanting to get it done, we just don’t have the money… anyway, this guy seems very nice. He tells me that the driveway would normally run about 4.8k but that they’re trying to get the word out about their business and if I’d be willing to let them put up a sign it’d be 3.2k he’d charge. I say to him even though I really wish we could get it done we are cash strapped at the moment. He says no problem, but how about 2.7k and they wouldn’t be pushy about the money as long as its within the next couple of months. I falter, my head isn’t in the best space. So I agree. I figure I can beg borrow and steal over the next couple months. (Obviously a turn of phrase lol) He goes off happy about getting me to agree. I gave it some thought and had some regrets about agreeing. If I had been in the right headspace I likely wouldn’t have been persuaded on a cold call type of meeting.

    Anyway – the next day (today) one of his “coworkers” shows up to hand me a business flyer because they had neglected to do that before. This made me a little more at ease because in my migrained headspace I had forgotten to do even that. Guy drives off. I immediately start researching. Their website doesn’t work. So I emailed them. Email bounces back — they hadn’t even registered that email address. Phone number comes up with nothing on google. So I call them and say I’ve changed my mind because the financial situation has changed (it hasn’t but all of the red flags…) — anyone ever encounter something like this? I never get approached outside and this is why we have a no soliciting sign on the doorbell. It was all so bizarre.

    1. I’ve had a friend run into a couple things like this and these are usually people who will work on figuring out how gullible somebody is, end up with an advance payment on something, then vanish into thin air with no work done and no sign of the money you gave them. This is why you can’t trace them by phone or email.

      Hope your migraines are under control soon. I’ve had them periodically since 1982. They are quite manageable on my end of things.

    2. Yikes! Sounds most fishy to me as per what TK said.

      Good you didn’t end up doing it. I hope you can get
      those migraines under control.

    3. Sorry to hear about the headaches.

      Not long after moving into our house in 2005 we were approached by some pavers who had “extra materials” and would give us a great deal on a “skim coat.” We foolishly agreed.

      I did some quick research and called a local reputable paving contractor who was kind enough to tell us that this is likely a scam. Within the hour they showed up with some equipment and workers. I told them that I changed my mind and he threatened to dump the materials at the end of our driveway. Luckily, we happened to have another contractor at the house doing some other work and he scared them away.

      Years later I looked up this guy and found a video of him being arrested in another part of the country. He was resisting the arrest. The police pinned him against a wall and handcuffed him.

      Paving seems to attract a lot of scammers!

    4. Oh no. I’m so happy you figured this out before it was too late. There are so many scammers out there now. What a shame they can’t put their talents to honest work

      I am so sorry to hear about your migraines. My 10 yr old granddaughter has been having migraines. Her mom suddenly developed vertigo with strong headaches. She is still struggling and undergoing tests. Sadly, with dr shortages there is space between testing.

      My migraines always appeared with pressure changes due to weather. I can’t help but wonder if that is somewhat in play

      I hope you feel 100% very very soon

    5. Yes there always driving around down here but the line is , hey we have some extra stock that we need to get rid of & I can give you a phenomenal deal , and I say ok go bug someone else !!!! Hope headache gets better my wife went through Botox.

    1. Unlike in meteorology, there is a long history of signed zero in the world of computers:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signed_zero

      In the first programming class that I took in college in 1977, the professor told a great story about tracing down a bug. It ended up being caused by the incorrect setting of a physical switch that determined the sign of zero.

  30. Meanwhile here in Iguazu Falls, Argentina, it’s 80 F and I would estimate the humidity to be slightly greater than 1,000 %!!

  31. 18z op GFS doesn’t even bring BOS & PVD to zero now, but I suspect this may also be an error. That would now mean GFS is too warm and ECMWF is too cold.

      1. There was, but it was eaten up by the 3BEARS model which only forecasts porridge temps…………………………………

  32. Worcester 17.5”, Boston 7.9”

    Today’s snowfall:

    Boston = 0.3”
    Woburn (TK) = 0.3”
    Worcester = 0.3”

    1. Incrementally – and I mean small increments – we’re approaching the 2011-2012 total in Boston.

      As I recall the biggest snow event in Boston that season was MKL weekends; maybe 3 inches in Boston. I could be wrong about this.

      1. It was late in the week following MLK Day. Between January 16 & 21 Boston recorded most of its snow for the season, 6.1 inches during that stretch including the largest snowfall for a calendar day being 2.9 inches on January 21.

        Many inland locations recorded their “biggest” snowstorm of the season on October 29-30, but Boston (Logan) only had 1 inch for that event.

        Ironically the greatest (and only measurable) snowfall during the month of February that winter was 0.9 inch on the “extra day”, February 29. The other 28 recorded no measurable snow.

        Boston will, IMO, exceed the 2011-2012 snowfall total, and possibly by a good number of inches, when the 2022-2023 winter is in the books. We still have more than half of it left. That’s why I chuckle when I look around the net and see people talking like it’s already been over for a while. 😉 I feel this is a universally repeated mistake winter after winter, and I simply don’t understand why. 🙂

  33. Dr. S, I am very sorry to hear about your migraines. They’re awful to endure. Also, I’m sorry to read about the attempt to scam you.

  34. I always feel like I’m on the west coast of Ireland when I watch and listen to the cellist Patrick Dexter: His little house in the background, with the dog ambling around, the incredible views, with hills/mountains to his north. As the seasons change, not a lot changes in terms of vegetation, or Patrick’s sweater. He wears it in summer and in winter. Weather is quite similar in all seasons in that part of the world. https://twitter.com/patrickdextervc/status/1620544040352743424

  35. Wankum thinking it goes Warmer after this very quick shot of cold air , even said February looking like it could end up warm like January was

  39. TK I have been seeing “-0F” temps on the pivotal weather maps for the GFS and CMC the past few days as well. Must be calculating the point temp as -0.3F or something and then rounding up but not dropping the negative sign. Funny.

  40. If you are looking for snow….

    Jay Peak VT

    19” in the last 3 days
    50” in the past 7 days
    71” in the past 12 days

    The “Jay Cloud” strikes again. Incredible micro climate up there.

    1. A close friend of mine lives in N Conway NH.
      Northern New England is not doing all that poorly this winter. They are having their share of snow up there and the ski areas are not doing that badly in general.

      The pattern has been “stable”. It’s been very mild here in SNE with no real instrusions of cold air, but while we landed in the top 5 on the mildest January list, it’s due to that pattern stability – classic La Nina. How many warm temp records were set in Boston in January? The positive anomaly was due to very mild low temps which is generally due to extensive cloud cover in a mild Pacific flow regime. Meanwhile, the western US has been cold, rather persistently so, for a very long while now. Where it’s been mild, it’s stayed mild. Where it’s been cold, it’s stayed cold. Stable pattern. Remember 2015 when we had nearly 6 weeks of below normal temps without a let-up? Stable pattern. Stable meaning little to no change in the overall set-up. December 1989 was another good example of that. Boston’s temp was an astounding 14 degrees BELOW NORMAL for the month – the coldest December on record. Yet snowfall was below normal due to a very dry pattern. Ironically this was followed by the most drastic turn-around I’ve ever observed in our weather, a January that ended up 6.5 degrees warmer than normal. Despite the anomalous warmth, they had more snow in January than they did in the frigid December, although not that much more (6.2 inches in December 1989, 7.0 inches in January 1990).

      1. My brothers nephew and family live in North Conway. They are doing well for snow now as your friend said. They lost Christmas vacation. But So far it seems that they may do well for the next one or two vacation weeks, depending on school systems. The webcam now for North Conway shows more snow than Stowe had last weekend but we know VT temps show the largest rise in temp due to climate.

  41. TWC’s “Winter Storm Mara” is actually a high pressure area. The icing situation down there is being caused not by low pressure, but by high pressure ending cold air southward, undercutting warm and moist air in the region. The cold air is fairly shallow with a gradual slope – so it’s acting like a backwards warm front (or a slow moving cold front).

    This highlights my dislike with naming winter storms. This is not a distinct “system”, like a tropical cyclone. It’s a precipitation event triggered by high pressure. I simply do not agree with naming those. It’s not the same thing as a distinctive closed, warm core tropical cyclone that you can track the center of and identify and predict the impacts in and around the storm’s path. Not all winter weather events are caused by distinctive low pressure areas you can track. There is a difference. And in my obviously strong opinion, I don’t think they need names, especially ones decided by a corporate entity “Byron Allen’s Entertainment Industries”, the owner of TWC. 🙂

    Well, they did name an arctic cold front once because of heavy snow squalls, and they named a NORLUN trough based on a forecast which when it happened it was all 50-100 miles further east offshore and nothing happened. Whoopsie! 😉 Corporate suits should not be deciding this stuff……

      1. 12-11, 12-12, 12-13, 1-14, and 1-25 for the traces at Central Park if I recall the data I looked at about an hour ago. I’m not sure I trust my short term memory that much when I’ve had 2 migraines in one week.. LOL .. I hadn’t gotten around to looking at LGA or anywhere else yet. I was setting up a new toaster oven on which the digital readout actually works, unlike the last one which only had a couple of dashes working…………………..

  43. FWIW the 00z 12km NAM 2m temp forecast brings the zero line to about Interstate 90 and that’s it. Keeps Boston just above zero and puts Worcester just below.

    Opinion: It’s probably a little bit too warm a forecast, but may not be all that far off when we get there. The absolute deep core of the arctic air is going to miss SNE to the north and east.

    Boston’s record for February 4 is not too low (-2) so it is definitely within reach as things stand now.

    Again not taking these 2m temp forecasts all that seriously, even on the NAM and especially out at the end of its range, but will monitor.

    In the nearer term, a coating of snow may fall overnight to around dawn anywhere south of I-90.

  45. It looks like the NY Central Park wait for measurable snow may be over. Waiting for official confirmation…

  46. We’ve probably snuck in a half inch of snow this morning.

    Unfortunately, listening to radio and my own experience of skidding while driving slowly and listening to plenty of sirens going up and down rte 139 …..

    people will never learn that snow and pavement behave a lot differently at 23F, compared to 33F. Lots of accidents.

    1. If you get it into people’s heads that we are having a non-winter, then even the snow and snow covered roads that they see apparently don’t exist. 😉

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