DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)
A disturbance brought a round of showers through the region overnight – a nice drink for the flowers even through we still suffer a longer-term dry spell. It’s back to fair weather for the day today, some patchy clouds drifting across the sky but plenty of sun, and a little bit warmer in most areas than yesterday. Tonight, a back-door cold front swings into the region from the northeast, and while it’s not going to bring much in the way of clouds and certainly no rain, it will turn the region a little cooler for Monday, especially in eastern coastal locations which will have a wind off the water. But this front is pushed back the other way by Tuesday as the little bubble of high pressure from Canada that sent it down merges with the high pressure area off the East Coast to our south. This will pump in the warmth of summer for Tuesday and into Wednesday as well. Some areas can see their first 90 degree readings of the season on Tuesday for high temps, but I do not think this will be widespread, and it will most certainly be cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands those days as a southwest wind comes across cooler ocean water before reaching those areas. We have to watch for shower and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday with the approach of a pre-frontal trough from the west. The most likely area to see anything would be central MA and southern NH later in the day or in the evening. I do think coverage on this will be low as far as the region goes, but I’ll keep an eye on it. A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday, providing a better chance of showers and storms. It’s still a few days away and timing is not nailed down, but I am leaning later in the day for it – northwest to southeast across the region. Behind this front, high pressure builds in with fair and more seasonable weather for Thursday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-69 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 68-75 Islands / Cape Cod, 76-83 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 84-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands, 73-80 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.,
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)
This period contains the Memorial Day Weekend (May 23-25). Over the last few days I’ve been keeping an eye on the medium range models to see how they handle the potential for low pressure passing near or south of the region at some point during that period of time. Obviously beyond day 6 we still have quite a bit of uncertainty in the outlook, but today I lean toward the greatest wet weather threat taking place mid weekend (May 24) with fair weather both to start (May 22-23) and end (May 25-26) this time period. Temperatures, while somewhat typically variable, should average generally around normal for the period. Day to day variation can be made more clear as we get closer to these days.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)
The outlook for the last 5 days of May, if based on guidance available, is rather uncertain, which is not unusual for heading out 2 weeks into the future in spring – and yes, late May is still spring, not summer. Guidance ranges from progression to blocking. Climatology says never count blocking out, even then. When I see range across guidance or wild inconsistency within any model that is considered reasonably accurate much of the time, I go with a vague outlook based on what I feel may be the most likely overall regime, and right now that is drier over wetter, cooler over warmer. Best bet: follow my daily updates.
Good morning and thank yiu TK
68. Up from 58
Ocean: 51
Wordle; 6. Phew! I was hopelessly lost.
How warm will it get today?
My over/under: 85
Let’s see how far off I am.
6 is great with this word.
I’ll say 83 for over under and know I’ll be off
Yes.
Not an everyday word for sure.
Good morning all!
A couple of reiterations and maybe an extra comment or two…
Reiteration 1: “The cone” on the NHC maps. The product won’t be any more reliable / accurate than it has been, in theory. The two changes made are (1) it’s now “official” instead of “experimental”, and (2) the cone is now extended inland where once it was not included. This doesn’t improve accuracy, it just shows more forecast information than it used to.
Reiteration 2: This one is a re-saying of something I say several times per year. And every time I say it I hope it’s the final time I have to, but apparently it isn’t again. There is nothing, and I mean NOTHING about a holiday weekend that makes it more likely to rain (or snow) than any other time. Take your standard 3-day holiday weekend consisting of a Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. That’s 3 days. For this area, the average number of days with precipitation is 8 to 13 (or about 10) per month. The average number of days with precipitation is about 125 per year. This works out to an average of about 1 out of 3 days. If you take ANY 3-day period, on average you will see precipitation on one of them. Average. Not “every time”. Average. Sometimes it will be 3, sometimes it will be 2, sometimes it will be 1, sometimes it will be zero. The average is 1 out of 3 – for ANY 3-day period, not just a holiday weekend. There’s no “Murphy’s Law” at work here. It’s the normal.
Comment 1: Beware of MSM continuing to hype the heat like it’s mid summer. We all know that this is what the news directors want. You won’t get that here. Can Boston break its record Tuesday? Maybe! Maybe not! I guess we’ll find out. Is this going to be a heatwave (yes I have already seen that term incorrectly thrown around out there)? No. It’s not. No location in our region is going to have 3 days of 90+. The maximum potential is 2 for the warmest areas (Tuesday and Wednesday). You’ll note that I currently do not have any 90 or higher in my forecast for Wednesday, based on my expectations for wind direction, speed, cloud cover, and shower / t-storm chances. I would not mind an after work storm chase on my birthday, however. 😉
Comment 2: The El Nino hype graphics out there, especially on social media, are hot and heavy (pun partially intended). Beware of hype, AI-generated really bad graphics, and people paid to talk it up like it’ll be the end of the world. It won’t be.
Carry on and enjoy your Sunday!
Regarding “Reiteration 2”, there has to be more rain on the holiday of Hae Nang Maew – with the cats and all! 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hae_Nang_Maew
BAHAHAHA! Ok that’s the exception. 😉
Thanks TK. 64 up from low of 54
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
A couple hundredths in brief showers last night, maybe 2-3 am?
Very nice 4
That’s a great score for today!
Great 4 Tom.
Got lucky with first two words with 3 letters… two in correct spot
Wordle 3
Superb, Vicki !!
Wow – amazing!
Thank you ❤️
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=beach%20hazards%20statement
It’s the right advisory to post in the first very warm weather in spring, but it always makes me chuckle a bit. Is anyone expecting anything other than dangerously cold water in Maine in May?
And yet, sadly, I do feel there’s a story every year or 2 in which someone loses their life because they were overcome by the effects of water temps that are so cold.
Wordle: After not being able to think of anything for the 4th guess, I tried something that I never knew was a word. It’s specific to one area of health care!
After that I got the answer on the 5th guess.
Well reasoned. Great 5
I hope to remember to ask tomorrow what that word was
Very nice !
Wow!!! great job.
Looking back at yesterday and I did take a few minutes to examine some high temps, Logan, they nerrimack valley and southern NH had many locations that hit 79F.
It was really central NH, into the white Mtns and southern and eastern Maine that really got a lot of rain Thursday, but amts tapered in extreme southern NH, southward.
And with overall long term dryness, it feels like extreme southern NH, southward overachieved on temps by 1-2F yesterday.
So, I suggest we’re probably going to overachieve temp wise a bit today and Tuesday.
Monday, with the weak onshore flow, in eastern areas, perhaps not so much as the ocean temp is what it is. Worcester westward, maybe though by 1-2F, again.
We’ll see 🙂
I am recalling another area of decent 1-1.5 inches of rain just west of Worcester county, from where the ribbon of rain set up early Thursday.
But it wasn’t the 2 to as much as 5 inches that fell in central NH, the white Mtns and parts of Maine.
76 here and ROCKETING UPWARD!!!
Wow. We are 71. Lately, you are consistently ahead of us
Yes 🙂
Sitting in the hot sun on my deck.
Per time and date sunrise sunset data, we have moved to 94,000,000 miles away from the sun today.
Another 500,000 miles to go until aphelion, which this year, falls on July 6th.
We have moved 2.5 million miles away from the sun since earth was at perihelion back in very early January.
Ironically, the moon is at perigee first, barely past new yesterday, so we do have a super moon no one can see 🙂
Because the moon is rising high during the day, the daytime high tide is decent (10.3 ft), but the overnight tides are the king tides running right near 12ft.
Thanks TK! Springfield College graduation today – unfortunately inside
I suppose they really have to plan inside, unless they have an outdoor venue with at least some kind of cover.
Congratulations to whomever is graduating !
I think in a case where venues can plan outdoors with an indoor back-up (if not an alternate date, which is not always possible and in itself is risky too), the safer option is to plan indoors, especially if you’re limited for choices.
This type of planning is done by people who actually understand that spring in this part of the world is far from a guarantee of warm, dry weather, which for some reason a lot of media tends to make sound like should be the normal daily weather. I still don’t get why so many people cannot grasp that.
Yeah, I know I’ve been a bit harsh on this one, but I’m not wrong. I cannot fathom how anybody living here for years doesn’t know the typical weather and volatility of springtime by now. It’s not that difficult. 🙂 It really, honestly is not difficult. 😛
Wordle 4
Super !
Excellent!
nice
Thanks TK
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 4
Super !
nice 4
Excellent Sue!!
Temperature rise has halted here and dropped a degree to 75.
We’re kind of under neutral temp advection.
Certainly not cool air advection, but not advecting in warmer air either.
A slow climb the rest of the day, but not as fast as what happened this morning.
Yup, I guess not. NOT that I am complaining. Tis another BEAUTIFUL DAY!!!!!
It sure is !!
Up to 75 here
79
Thanks, TK.
Just completed my long run. Trying to get acclimated. Do I feel acclimated? No. I feel gross. Oh well. There are worse things in life.
81. Getting close to my over under 83
My O / U is 84F and I think I am almost there now. Some breeze has picked up.
Nice breeze here too
DING DING DING
Now 80 here. I don’t think I make my O/U which I set high
at 85. We shall see.
67 degree sun angle, temp 82F, much better !!!
I do understand this is 15F above average 🙂
Logan and Marshfield at 84F.
Lots of low and a few other, mid 80s.
It’s clear we have learned yesterday and today, without more generous rainfall, we need to project 1-3F above what the models are projecting when there are west and southwest winds. Particularly under any high 500 mb heights with sinking air and mostly sunny conditions.
Southwest or south winds, perhaps 1F above.
81
83
88 at Windsor Locks and Hartford.
Thanks TK.
We are down in Germantown MD this weekend for a confirmation and weather has been terrific with highs in the mid 80s both days.
Meanwhile, my son is skiing at a Killington today and snapped these pictures…
https://imgur.com/a/ccl57Ok
Still a solid base on Superstar. Their base will take a hit this week but I think they should be fine to get through Memorial Day weekend.
Saw a video from Jay’s Peak and they were skiing down the mountain.
That snow will likely be gone soon, but we’re only 5 plus months away from fresh powder up there.
Fantastic!!!
84, 1 to go.
86 at Logan
88 here well past my over under
85 here. Hit my o/u.
87F here. As my daughter’s British boyfriend would say, anything over 30C (where he and she live) is essentially a heat emergency. As a reminder, 30C=86F.
Speaking of emergencies, today the WHO declared a global health emergency – only the 9th time they’ve ever done this – because of the expanding Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda. Though it’s confined to this area, officials are concerned about spillover, as they were in 2014 when a massive Ebola outbreak hit West Africa.
There is no threat (yet) to the U.S. But it’s important to remain vigilant. Ebola is an awful, life-threatening disease with a case fatality rate of 35%. The particular strain involved in the DRC and Uganda has NO treatment or vaccine. By contrast, the previous large outbreak was contained because the strain could be combated with a treatment vaccine.
While Ebola is certainly contagious with direct contact, it’s not spread as an airborne virus. Therefore, more difficult to transmit than, say, influenza. Still, as the 2014 epidemic showed, it can cross continents.
88F at Logan and Marshfield, wow !!
Seeing the effects big time about the longer term dryness.
What’s areas away from the more SW wind getting to Tuesday.
Different topic, kudo to the RRFS A for simulating the scattered shower or 2 in southern NH. Ok, it had it by Cape Ann, but pretty close.
I wonder if my trusted weather bug app is off as I would think I would be higher temp here in western pembroke vs Marshfield
89
85 in pembroke now
Thanks, TK!
Might be too high, but my Oregon Scientific hit 91.4 earlier!
86,4 now
Thanks, TK.
84 here now. Just came back from a brief walk outside, quite hot in the sun but breeze helps considerably. NOT looking forward to Tuesday and Wednesday. Thankfully heat waves this time of year not long lasting (2-3 days).
We can’t have a 2-day heatwave.
Probably only Tuesday for a shot at 90 or 91.
We topped at 90. Down to 85. Turned ac on and cried a little
Before the NHL playoffs started, someone I know was talking about how important home ice advantage is. Nope. It never really is in the NHL. It hasn’t been for quite a long time.
My reply to them was that I’d put money on the visiting team winning greater than 50% of the games through the first 2 rounds.
With a game 7 in one series being the only game left in round 2, for the playoffs to date, the visiting team has won 34 games while the home team has won 32. So, even if the hosts Buffalo should beat visiting Montreal on Monday to win game 7, the road teams will still have won greater than 50% of the games through the first 2 rounds.
#HomeIceDisadvantage 😉
The playoffs have once again been wonderful !
Very entertaining, good hockey !!
And, as you say, there’s no certainty in what will happen based on where the next game is.
Down to 63