Thursday July 16 2026 Forecast (7:30AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

The thickest wildfire smoke plume drifted south of our area late yesterday and continues there today, but some of that smoke will make a come-back as we move through the day today, so while the sun is not “browned out” like much of yesterday, you’ll still notice a smoky haze in the sky with a tendency for it to become more noticeable as the day goes on. A cold front will drop southward from northern New England and can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in southern NH and mainly northeastern MA from mid afternoon to early evening, but I’m not expecting widespread coverage from this activity, which will quickly fade as the sun sets. The front will move through the region and bring a cooler and drier air mass into the region on Friday, but as upper winds turn more westerly again we’ll see a late-day increase in both high clouds and high altitude smoke again on Friday. Unlike yesterday, I’m not expecting much smoke to get near the surface with the exception of a portion of this evening to early Friday mainly southwest of Boston before everything gets pushed to the south. Additional high altitude smoke is likely to be in the sky this weekend, though it may be obscured by quite a bit more cloudiness on Saturday as a warm front approaches from a low pressure area now destined to pass fairly far to our north early Sunday. Trying to figure out the track and behavior of this system leading up to this has been a challenge, but I do think it brings only a brief chance for a little rainfall on Saturday with the passage of its warm front, with most of the shower and possible thunderstorm activity occurring late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with its cold front, followed by a return to fair weather during the day on Sunday, with high pressure building in behind the front, continuing to provide fair weather through Monday as well.

TODAY: Sun becomes hazy due to high altitude smoke returning. Isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 81-88. Dew point nearing 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds depart but high altitude smoke thickens with pockets of near-surface smoke possible, especially west and south of Boston. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Brighter sun returns. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase. Chance of a shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm late night west to east. Fog patches late. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds and lingering showers eastern areas, then lots of sun. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevation areas. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest July 21, 23, 24. Overall pattern mainly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest mid period. Still mainly dry overall. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable.

74 thoughts on “Thursday July 16 2026 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    72 up from 68

    Ocean: 66

    Wordle: 5

    Sure feels nice e this morning.

    1. Very nice 5.

      I’m Thinking I might open windows. Even closed the smoke is messing with my asthma. But I’d love to have “fresh” air

  7. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: 4

    Goes East is down. I guess we’ll have to use our eyes to watch for when the smoke returns.

  11. Nice job all with the 3s and 4s for Wordle. I just can’t keep up.
    Getting pretty frustrated with this game…. Don’t think I will last much longer.

    1. I know you’re frustrated ….. hopefully, in the long term, you’ll stick with it.

      I certainly go thru phases where it’s 6, fails and an occasional 5. I seem to have been on a better roll/luckier this week. Take it while it lasts 🙂

      1. Probably stick to it for a bit. I am really PISSED off at this game or more so at myself. I “should” be able to do better, I really should.

        For today after 1st guess, I had the last letter correct.
        Next guess, wrong word and still only last letter correct.
        Next guess was a hell, let me see if this is a word as I never head of it. Got the 1st 2 letters plus the last.

        I thought for sure I had it on guess 4. NOPE still got 3 letters in position.

        NOT to guess # 5 did I get the correct word.

        Btw, the crazy word I tried was BUNDE

        “Bunde” has several entirely different meanings depending on the language and context:

        German: Bünde (capitalized) is the plural form of “Bund”, meaning an alliance, league, or confederation. It is also the name of a town in the North Rhine-Westphalia region of Germany.

        Spanish: A traditional folk music, rhythm, and dance from the Pacific and Andean regions of Colombia and Panama, often played during festivals or funeral ceremonies.

        Danish: A verb that can mean to touch the bottom (e.g., in a swimming pool), or to empty a glass/bottle.

        Surname: A North German and Scandinavian surname with historical roots relating to a “free peasant” or an “enclosed fertile pasture”.

          1. Me either. I just threw in it there and was surprised to see it was a word. Strange game!!!

        2. I think we all go thru phases. I can guarantee that no matter how smart anyone is that there will be ups and downs. I hope you stick with it. I am sure I’m not only speaking for myself when I say it’s always fun to have you play. And you started Wordle on whw

  12. Thanks TK! My wife is in Minneapolis this week and Air quality numbers have soared to the low 300s – very hazardous. Duluth was at 541 yesterday and they are urging people to stay indoors. They seem to be having a hard time getting the upper hand on the fires by the Boundary waters – a big vacation destination for hard core hikers. Everything is closed. Unfortunate.

    1. Wow on those numbers !

      If I’ve read correctly and have this right, there’s largely little they can do when it comes to fighting the “whole” of the wildfires. I’m sure, they can pick small segments to fight.

      But, I think they largely hope for a change to a more moist weather pattern or over the long haul, for summer to end and the sun to fall away to cooler times.

  13. Stating the obvious here, how the sun is really responsible for warming up.

    Logan has risen 9F since its low temp near sunrise and Worcester airport, 10F since it’s low near sunrise.

    Yesterday, there was barely any day time temperature change due to the smoke.

  14. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: 4 and happy to see we’ve all boarded the train today.

    JPD – we ALL have good and bad days with this game, don’t give up.

  16. Eyeballing projected 850 mb temps above us, look around 14C, somewhere around there.

    Wonder when the smoke returns?

    Is its 2pm or later, Logan might get to 87/88F or even higher ? Wind is west, dps in the upper 50s, so it’s dry air that will warm.

    I figure the smoke evened out that Logan’s sensor is probably 1F too high. The smoke took away at least 2 (90F days) which probably cancels out 2 days of 90F highs Logan has had this year.

  17. Thanks TK.

    Smoke and haze have returned here in Hartford after what had been a beautiful start to the morning with sunshine and blue skies. Not much sun getting through anymore.

  18. Thanks, TK!

    82/62 under (still) blue skies

    Sorry to hear about your impending surgery, TK, but hopefully you’ll be on the mend soon! 🙂

  20. Just came back from CVS and beautiful out with crystal clear blue skies in all directions. Maybe we luck out today?

  22. Enjoy the clear air up there! Thick smoke in the air again here in Hartford today that you can smell right down to the ground.

    Here is a good simulation/projection of ground level smoke today through Saturday…

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    4h

    Another wave of dense wildfire smoke is forecast to reach New York and New England on Thursday afternoon and evening before it surges into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday night.

    Thick, unhealthy smoke is expected in D.C. on Friday, with some reaching Virginia and North Carolina.

    https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2077734530707058941?s=20

    1. Still nothing much here so far. Some haze/smoke but sun still penetrating through along with pale blue sky.

  23. This was 3 hrs ago

    Pete….. Our satellite, GOES 19, is out. It’s our primary go-to for following storm systems, viewing clouds, tracking smoke, and even solar radiation. The outage was caused by an “anomaly”. which caused the satellite to go into “safehold” mode. We may be days (or longer) without satellite data.

    He followed it with …. Thankfully, we have a blended product from our weather vendor, The Weather Company, that can use imagery from GOES 18 (WEST) to give us at least some view of what’s up there. It’s not perfect, but it’s better than nothing. Here’s the full disk imagery.

    Photos in a minute

  26. A lot of missing temps in Logan’s ob string makes me wonder if some calibration work is underway there.

    There’s an anomalous 90 degree reading at 1:30 p.m. which is definitely incorrect. They haven’t been above 88 at most yet, and probably won’t be.

    I am hoping that is discounted because it would become the 5th erroneous 90 degree high of the summer otherwise.

    1. Another anomaly at 3:15 p.m. … 88 88 88 88 88 90 88 88 88 88

      Also the missing obs are all for about 10-15 min right at the top of each hour.

        1. HAHAHAHA!!!

          If they leave this and don’t correct it, Logan will have FIVE 90 degree days that are actually not 90 degree days. FIVE. That is a tremendous mistake for statistics.

          I don’t believe in leaving such mistakes when they are fixable. I also don’t believe in their “acceptable margin of error”. I could not disagree more with what they say about it. It’s NOT ok to be off by 2 degrees either side and know about it and be ok with it. It’s inaccurate.

          1. I don’t understand this. We have so much impressive meteorological technology on and above the earth (and on other planets), but ground-based temperature sensors are wrong?!?!

    2. I saw that. I also see the wind is W or WNW. I’m assuming you saw the study I posted.

  27. The sky is still looking much better than yesterday.

    I won’t complain. As of 3PM our AQI is 66. I’ve been in contact with my brother-in-law in MI where the AQI is 399. He usually walks as much as possible, but today he took the car to go five blocks from his house!

  28. Waiting for a call-back from the cardiologist so I can get the ball rolling on info, planning, and a timeline on the heart procedure.

    I’ll update when I have something to update. 🙂

  29. The predicted showers and t-storms (mainly isolated … somewhat scattered along a line) are now entering the northeastern portion of the WHW region. No changes to the expectations with these.

    1. It’s a real good one. We’ve been pretty windy up here since it went through. Temp dropped from 86 (my high) to 75. It went from 85 to 75 in about 1/2 hour.

  35. What’s fascinating today is watching the intense training thunderstorm over central NJ, right in the midst of the thick smoke plume. The same area has been getting pummelled for about 2 hours now. East of Philly. North of Atlantic City. South of Tom’s River. Tons of CG lightning. Torrential rain over the same area for a long time – serious flash flooding going to result there.

  36. Those areas you mentioned have been getting a lot of rain the past few weeks. Philadelphia last weekend had a microburst.

    1. My daughter and granddaughter drove here thru that area last week. Rain was torrential. Daughter could not see two cars in front of her for near the entire trip.

  37. We really caught a break yesterday having the smoke just miss us to the south. It was a beautiful day only until near dinner time. A nice surprise for a change. 🙂

    1. It wasn’t a surprise. It was forecast to go south of us then make a slight comeback later in the day. Exactly what happened.

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