Wednesday October 21 2026 Forecast (7:09AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

High pressure remains to the north for a couple more days as an ocean storm spins to our southeast, making its closest pass tonight and early Thursday, at which time a little rain can occur in the Cape Cod region. After this, the storm will start to accelerate away toward Atlantic Canada and our northeasterly wind will shift more to the north to end the week. High pressure builds in for a very nice weekend!

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts 30+ MPH coastal areas, strongest Cape Cod region.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain possible Cape / Islands and slight chance of rain MA South Shore to South Coast west of Cape Cod Canal. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH MA South Shore to South Coast including Cape / Islands with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Increasing sun west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts particularly in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 31-38. Wind N to NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Fair weather early next week. Unsettled weather chance middle of next week. Fair weather returns late week. This is the result of a hybrid pattern (transitional blocking) with west to east progression.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Watching for unsettled weather potentials around November 1-2 and again around November 4, but low confidence forecast.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday October 21 2026 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  1. FYI: The batch of low clouds moving through eastern MA at sunrise today was depicted by the RRFS model over 60 hours in advance and the forecast never wavered, right down to a 2-hour window of arrival.

    Reply

    1. Nope, not this time. It’s too dry at the surface. This stratus layer is in a very small slice of higher dew point air just above, and will not trigger any drizzle. It will leave the region shortly anyway.

      Reply

      1. I’ll put it at about 1%. It’s cold core, has no tropical characteristics whatsoever, and has fronts.

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        1. OK, tell us how you really feel.

          How about some thoughts about NHC? Feel free to get political. IT never used to be this way.
          Why would they list it as having a 40% chance.?Seems rather dumb to me.

          So, basically the NHC is now a USELESS federal agency.

          Reply

  6. JPD you cannot escape being political…

    Laid off employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have not been replaced as of October 2026. Instead, the agency has continued to operate with a reduced workforce following massive 2025 cuts, hiring only a small fraction of entry-level workers under limited emergency authorizations.

    Current Staffing Status

    • Overall Reductions: NOAA has lost roughly 2,000 to over 2,600 employees since early 2025 through probationary terminations, buyouts, and retirements, shrinking its total workforce from about 12,000 to near 10,000.
    • Limited Hiring: While the National Weather Service made a minor push to onboard over 300 predominantly entry-level workers under a targeted emergency authorization, these hires fall far short of replacing the thousands of experienced meteorologists and scientists who left.
    • Ongoing Vacancies: Thousands of positions across NOAA and regional Weather Forecast Offices remain unfilled, leading to persistent operational gaps like suspended weather balloon launches and unstaffed overnight shifts.

    Reply

    1. As with corporate dictating to meteorologists, I believe it is important for the public to understand. They already unfairly fault anyone who has anything to do with weather.

      Reply

      1. Indeed, I believe staffing plays a part, but I believe something more nefarious is going on in addition to the staffing issues. I will leave it at that.

        Reply

  12. If this was winter, we would be all going nuts missing out on a good snowstorm over the fish.

    Up until now, I’ve never associated El Niño with nor’easters. Is this what the winter pattern will be like?

    Reply

    1. I am not a Met and certainly Not TK, but I do recall Pete saying we “may” get a few Nor’Easters this Winter and some “could” be snow. And this could be the case even in a milder than normal Winter. We just don’t know.

      I have a sneaky feeling that we “may” get more snow than
      being forecast now by some.

      We shall see. It could get interesting……

      Of course if things don’t line up, we could end up with a very low snow Winter.

      Reply

  13. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: Impressive 2 for SClarke. Hopping on the 3 car with JPD and all are welcome for cocktails and appetizers!

    Reply

        2. I am with you Tom! I am freezing in my office today. They can never seem to get the right temperature in here. Maybe our new headquarters will be better. We are moving back to Rockland in a few weeks.

          Reply

  15. Channel 10 bosses are relentless:

    “A nor’easter is making its closest pass to New England today. How bad will conditions get? Strong winds, dangerous surf and rip currents could threaten the coast for days. Here’s what to expect.” (Link given.)

    -Not the weather team

    Reply

  18. I am practicing to be a TV met.

    “Are howling winds and torrential rains coming our way as possible tropical storm works it way north? Will millions be in its path? We’ll discuss the track in a few minutes. Stay tuned!”

    How am I doing?

    Reply

      2. So, is it truly a subtropical storm???

        58aff8c8-c84a-40de-bdb8-d6400f520506

        They say it will become a hurricane!!

        https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/212046.shtml?cone#contents

        I guess Extra Tropical with hurricane force winds

        FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

        INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…SUBTROPICAL
        12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…SUBTROPICAL
        24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        120H 26/1800Z…DISSIPATED

        Reply

        1. Well, we can debate its classification, but the models all drop its pressure another 4-6 mb the next 24 hrs, so, it’s going to get stronger for a bit.

          The wording in the discussion mentions, I believe the west side where band of stronger than 75 mph winds is slated to form.

          Reply

  20. Just got a notification on my phone from Boston 25 News.

    WEEKEND STORM?
    Winds begin to ramp up ahead of potential coastal storm.

    Reply

    1. A storm of 100% sunshine and moderating temps Sunday.

      I think it’s a potential 10/10 weekend weather wise.

      So, I’m not sure what they are thinking at 25 ????

      Reply

      1. That’s all management driven. I am starting to think that’s why a certain person who has a first name that starts with “K” left the station. The management of these stations are SO out of touch.

        I remember when the ONLY thing they had to tell the weather team is how much time they had for their weathercast based on the load of news stories, or if they had to do any extra air spots or related radio feeds during a special weather situation.

        It’s really sad what they’ve done to it. Really, really sad.

        Reply

        1. I can’t be sure, but check out the ge graphic an compare to one with a real hurricane. Ai think they are diffferent.

          Reply

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